NH POLL: Romney 36%, Perry 18%, Paul 14%

[samsung1]

Paul looking strong in the" live free or die" state

nhjournal.com/2011/08/17/poll-romney-rocks-perry-pops-bachmann-doesn%e2%80%99t-bounce

[ItsTime]

We are going to win or come in second in NH. Quote me on that.

[zerosdontcount]

We are going to win or come in second in NH. Quote me on that.

ok

[kylejack]

Tough to get Romney's supporters in NH because people know him well from when he was governor of Mass, but we should be able to eat Perry's lunch, especially after we tell him his political history as well as all his recent hijinks.

[samsung1]

if we can win iowa and come in 2nd in NH we be racking up some serious delegates :)

[Bruno]

Now hope the new ad takes some support from Perry and Romney.

[realtonygoodwin]

On the ballot Romney remains in a strong position. He leads all candidates with 36% of the vote. However, Perry, making his first appearance in the NH Journal poll, debuts with a strong 18%. Ron Paul continues to impress despite relatively little media attention with 14%. And Bachmann earns 10%. All other candidates were in single digits.

What did Ron get last time?

[PastaRocket848]

Tough to get Romney's supporters in NH because people know him well from when he was governor of Mass, but we should be able to eat Perry's lunch, especially after we tell him his political history as well as all his recent hijinks.

you would think that would make Mitt /less/ popular. apparently people in NH love being forced to pay other people's bills. if the "live free or die" state goes to anyone other than paul they should be required by law to change their state motto.

[samsung1]

send this to the media outlets!! Drudge and fox and CNN

[kylejack]

What did Ron get last time?
John McCain 88,571 37.71% 7
Mitt Romney 75,546 32.17% 4
Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.44% 1
Rudy Giuliani 20,439 8.7% 0
Ron Paul 18,308 7.8% 0
Fred Thompson 2,890 1.23% 0
Duncan Hunter 1,217 0.52% 0

[realtonygoodwin]

Ron got 10% last time...this is a 40% increase in support!

(I mean, in the last NH polling by this company)

[Bruno]

Two words: TOP TIER!

[Brennon]

John McCain 88,571 37.71% 7
Mitt Romney 75,546 32.17% 4
Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.44% 1
Rudy Giuliani 20,439 8.7% 0
Ron Paul 18,308 7.8% 0
Fred Thompson 2,890 1.23% 0
Duncan Hunter 1,217 0.52% 0

It's truly shocking how few people actually vote.

[samsung1]

This poll should re-energize those that were feeling down about the media coverage. Paul can win!!

[pulp8721]

His dissaproval rate is stuck at 47%.

[orenbus]

This sounds eerily like the build up to the last go around. Please don't make the same mistake again.

Polls are nice to look at but in reality we should always act like he is running 10 points behind and that time is not on our side, based on that perception we would be able to do much more considering how devoted Ron Paul supporters actually are.

I did what I could and rang the alarm bell back in December of 2007 but unfortunately it came a day late and a dollar short, don't let this happen again:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?46212-Houston-We-Have-A-Problem-New-Hampshire-Canvasers-amp-Post-Signs-in-NH-NEEDED-ASAP

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[samsung1]

His dissaproval rate is stuck at 47%.

well everyone else is showing unfavorable ratings in the 40's, looks like New Hampshire voters just hate politicians in general

[samsung1]

Ron got 10% last time...this is a 40% increase in support!

(I mean, in the last NH polling by this company)

amazing isnt it!

[ProfNo]

This is good news; we need to keep polling in the top three here, and shoot for that goal nationally (or course, with double digits, and ideally around 15% in the near future). Bachmann is going to wash. All the talk will be about Perry and Romney. In the near future, Paul needs to be a solid third nationally, and polling first or second in Iowa. Then voters will see him as a viable alternative to the other two.

We made the mistake last time of ignoring the polls. In the end, they turned out to be pretty accurate.

[MRoCkEd]

Moving on up!

[zumajoe]

What was he at last election, 5%?

EDIT: just noticed someone posted 10%.

[IndianaPolitico]

Not bad, not bad at all! 14% and in 3rd place. Perry will fall once his announcement bump wears off, Bachmann has fallen below Paul again, and the rest are polling quite badly. Huckabee won Iowa, but he didn't have natural appeal for a libertarian state like NH. We do!

[fletcher]

John McCain 88,571 37.71% 7
Mitt Romney 75,546 32.17% 4
Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.44% 1
Rudy Giuliani 20,439 8.7% 0
Ron Paul 18,308 7.8% 0
Fred Thompson 2,890 1.23% 0
Duncan Hunter 1,217 0.52% 0

New state motto: Live stupid then die.

[Silencernate]

I would expect that Ron Paul would come with a very strong first place in New Hampshire. Keep in mind this is the same place where the Free State Project ( http://freestateproject.org/ ) is based. According to their website, they have 935 people that have already made the move. And these aren't just regular people that moved there because they liked the weather. These are libertarian activists that want to make New Hampshire the most free state in the nation. You can be assured that each of them will show up and vote. Not to mention convince their neighbors and friends to vote for Ron Paul.

[georgiaboy]

Anticipated MSM Headline:
"Top Tier reconfirmed as Romney, Perry, and Bachmann poll in double-digits in New Hampshire"

[trey4sports]

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (39% F / 47% U)

[IndianaPolitico]

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (39% F / 47% U)

Not that great, we need to keep on running ads. I think the campaign is running more ads in NH right now, then in Iowa. They see they have a chance to start polling in second.

[orenbus]

I would expect that Ron Paul would come with a very strong first place in New Hampshire. Keep in mind this is the same place where the Free State Project ( http://freestateproject.org/ ) is based. According to their website, they have 935 people that have already made the move. And these aren't just regular people that moved there because they liked the weather. These are libertarian activists that want to make New Hampshire the most free state in the nation. You can be assured that each of them will show up and vote. Not to mention convince their neighbors and friends to vote for Ron Paul.

Your are expecting too much as things stand right now without some serious hard work.

We had the same expectation in 2007 and it turned out to be false, assumptions will only carry you part of the way the rest of the way will come from having people wake up in the morning put there comfortable sneakers on and go out to do the hard work of going door to door in the blistering NH winter cold to ensure victory. We can't assume we have the hundreds of activists that are needed to do this work right now even if 1000 free staters are up there or not. Having been up there in 2007 I would estimate in order to ensure victory we would need at least 5000 people that have committed to going door to door a number of weeks and more than likely even months prior to the primary. Only then would I feel somewhat comfortable that we did everything we could to win.

I almost think the campaign should really set aside some money to hire people to go door to door to supplement what the volunteers will be doing. I hope we will have more volunteers canvasing this time around but hope only goes so far. If we had paid political operatives like for example the other campaigns had in 2007 I think it would move us closer to ensuring victory in NH and IA. And I'm not talking about coordinators that sit in the office to do administrative work. I'm talking about paid political workers that are going to go out and do the leg work that will be needed. I know this will probably offend those that think the volunteers will be enough to win this thing, but if our numbers in NH of activists are even close to around the same as in 2007 I have a feeling it won't. We will need the official campaign to take lead on this and to ensure that buses and housing is there for those that want to help and hire locals that are looking for a job to go door to door and hand out materials and take names of those committed to vote for Ron Paul.

[NorfolkPCSolutions]

I went on the Internets and I found this: http://politisite.com/2011/07/11/ron-paul-win-new-hampshire-straw-poll-gains-endorsement/

I searched "ron paul new hampshire polling 2011" in Google. Check it out. Sure, it's from before the MSM picked up their pop-poms for Perry and Romney, but could it be an indicator of the pulse on the ground in New Hampshire?

http://www.concordmonitor.com/blogentry/267481/ron-paul-scores-endorsement-wins-taxpayers-straw-poll?CSAuthResp=1313609377%3Atonqbuii5r8a32io7jfs1 j1p44%3ACSUserId|CSGroupId%3Aapproved%3AC02B3F3BD4 C7845C3EBC2B03F30C80B2&CSUserId=94&CSGroupId=1
(From the Concord Monitor, 11 July 2011)

[Austin]

39% of the GOP has a favorable view on Ron.. but I thought he was a looney nutjob?

[PEnemy]

We need to absorb Bachmann's voters.

We need to become the bona fide tea party candidate.



39% of the GOP has a favorable view on Ron.. but I thought he was a looney nutjob?

He's EXTREME AND DANGEROUS.

As in extremely correct and dangerously popular...

[kylejack]

I would expect that Ron Paul would come with a very strong first place in New Hampshire. Keep in mind this is the same place where the Free State Project ( http://freestateproject.org/ ) is based. According to their website, they have 935 people that have already made the move. And these aren't just regular people that moved there because they liked the weather. These are libertarian activists that want to make New Hampshire the most free state in the nation. You can be assured that each of them will show up and vote. Not to mention convince their neighbors and friends to vote for Ron Paul.
Yes, this was the rhetoric in 2008. Didn't work out so well.

[anaconda]

if we can win iowa and come in 2nd in NH we be racking up some serious delegates :)

If Bachmann fades or says something really stupid we could be sitting pretty in Iowa.

[samsung1]

Paul has enough appeal to finish top 2 in NH

[Aliangel]

Obviously Ron will get much more voters next year but we're not trying to do better, we trying to win enough delegates to continue after the early states.

[RonPaul101.com]

What was he at last election, 5%?

EDIT: just noticed someone posted 10%.

Not to speak for someone else, but I believe the 10% number is from earlier this primary cycle, not 2007.

[Aldanga]

Yes, this was the rhetoric in 2008. Didn't work out so well.
Like the Collins repeatedly said during Rand's race: run like you're 10 points behind.

[cucucachu0000]

That makes me feel a lot better about our chances. Just keep working were almost there

[Bruno]

Submitted to drudge

[kylejack]

The three most recent polls are 7, 9, and 14.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Previous polls to the 14 included Palin and Pawlenty.

[Silencernate]

Yes, this was the rhetoric in 2008. Didn't work out so well.

A lot has changed in 4 years. I'm not saying the rest of the nation should sit back and watch New Hampshire. Of course we need to push the message.

However, lets face it, it takes an Obama to get a Paul elected.

[trey4sports]

Paul can do very well in N.H. and I'm convinced that a multitude of factors could equate to a first place win in N.H. but the main thing that would have to happen would be someone shitting on Romney's campaign and killing its momentum. Someone like Perry.

[mczerone]

I would expect that Ron Paul would come with a very strong first place in New Hampshire. Keep in mind this is the same place where the Free State Project ( http://freestateproject.org/ ) is based. According to their website, they have 935 people that have already made the move. And these aren't just regular people that moved there because they liked the weather. These are libertarian activists that want to make New Hampshire the most free state in the nation. You can be assured that each of them will show up and vote. Not to mention convince their neighbors and friends to vote for Ron Paul.

You mean: You can be assured that each of the who shows up to vote will vote RP. There are many conscientious objectors to voting in that 1000 people.

But since it's going to take ~90k votes to win NH, the FSP crowd probably won't make a difference on its own (yet). The real influence on possible Paul voters from the FSP is the state legislators that are sympathetic to the FSP and will at least treat Paul supporters in committees with respect.

Sad to say, but NH is Romney's. Too many Massachusetts transplants. Unless/until RP resonates with the well-to-do upper-middle class, all we can hope for is 2nd in NH.

[invisible]

I almost think the campaign should really set aside some money to hire people to go door to door to supplement what the volunteers will be doing. I hope we will have more volunteers canvasing this time around but hope only goes so far. If we had paid political operatives like for example the other campaigns had in 2007 I think it would move us closer to ensuring victory in NH and IA. And I'm not talking about coordinators that sit in the office to do administrative work. I'm talking about paid political workers that are going to go out and do the leg work that will be needed. I know this will probably offend those that think the volunteers will be enough to win this thing, but if our numbers in NH of activists are even close to around the same as in 2007 I have a feeling it won't. We will need the official campaign to take lead on this and to ensure that buses and housing is there for those that want to help and hire locals that are looking for a job to go door to door and hand out materials and take names of those committed to vote for Ron Paul.

Disagree strongly, I think this is a horrible idea. The fact that Ron is NOT using paid shills, and does not have to pay people to shill for him, is something that sets him far apart from the other candidates. When I was in IA for the 2007-8 campaign, giving supporter speeches at the county Republican party meetings and elsewhere, I was the only actual volunteer / voter doing so. The only other people who were willing to speak in front of groups of people on behalf of a candidate were romney's and mccain's paid shills. I took particular delight at seeing the look on the face of mccain's paid shill as I mentioned that I was one of the audience, who had grown up right here in town, was speaking on behalf of a candidate that I supported as a volunteer, and that the others who spoke / were about to speak on behalf of other candidates were people who were only there because they were paid to be. Paying people to shill for Ron would only make his candidacy as phony as the other candidates, and even if those you are speaking / canvassing to are not supportive of Ron, they would see right through this. That Ron's supporters are actually real and not paid shills is something that DOES make a huge impression, and if you do not mention it, people WILL ask you if you are being paid for your time and effort.

[JamesButabi]

7% age 18-34
25% age 65+

I assume it is because every poll is like this, but is the voting population representative of these age brackets?

[kill the banks]

v good news / ads should improve this / knock those doors NH

[trey4sports]

7% age 18-34
25% age 65+

I assume it is because every poll is like this, but is the voting population representative of these age brackets?



yes.

I've heard that 18-34 generally accounts for 6% and i'd heard age 60+ accounts for 50% of total voting. (maybe a bit high?)

[wstrucke]

we need to double down and work twice as hard. does anyone have any contacts with the grassroots in NH? Are they actively working on this or are we all just talking about it?

[justatrey]

We are in a much better position than in 07. With that said, lets not ignore the giant elephant in the room which is the fact that the media is doing everything in its power to prevent that 14% from going up.

We are not sitting at the free lunch table like Romney and Perry.

[sailingaway]

His dissaproval rate is stuck at 47%.

If 53% vote for him and the rest absolutely despise him, he wins.

[sailingaway]

What was he at last election, 5%?

EDIT: just noticed someone posted 10%.

10% was the last poll by this company, he got lower in the last election

[Fredom101]

Paul looking strong in the" live free or die" state

nhjournal.com/2011/08/17/poll-romney-rocks-perry-pops-bachmann-doesn%e2%80%99t-bounce

How?
Sorry, not to be a negative nancy, but let's just look at 08 for a sec:

The senior citizens came out in droves and voted for McCain in NH. Why? Well, I don't think it was because RP wasn't getting enough media attention. Many of these people were on Social Security and they PERCEIVED that RP was going to rip their checks right out of their hands, even though of course that was not the case. McCain, they perceived, had their backs.

Young people simply do not turn out for primaries, no matter what the stakes.

This may be tough to accept but I believe it is the truth.

08 was about getting Ron Paul's name out there.
12 is about getting the Philosophy behind the name out there.

[sailingaway]

If Bachmann fades or says something really stupid we could be sitting pretty in Iowa.

She won't have Randy Travis at the caucus for GOTV

[mhad]

I still say not to focus on NH so much... I mean they chose McCain for crying out loud! My thought is focus on IA and NV (NV is VERY pro Paul), first place in those two and it is down hill from there!

[sailingaway]

How?
Sorry, not to be a negative nancy, but let's just look at 08 for a sec:

The senior citizens came out in droves and voted for McCain in NH. Why? Well, I don't think it was because RP wasn't getting enough media attention. Many of these people were on Social Security and they PERCEIVED that RP was going to rip their checks right out of their hands, even though of course that was not the case. McCain, they perceived, had their backs.

Young people simply do not turn out for primaries, no matter what the stakes.

This may be tough to accept but I believe it is the truth.

08 was about getting Ron Paul's name out there.
12 is about getting the Philosophy behind the name out there.

So now we tell them the truth. It is an issue they are paying attention to.

And OUR young people turn out. Look at CPAC and RLC. They'll be there for Ron like they wouldn't be for others, as young voters defied expectations for Obama. You have to inspire them, but Ron is good at that.

[anaconda]

How about that shining libertarian state New Hampshire overwhelmingly supporting Mitt Romney? And Overwhelmingly supporting Jon McCain in 2008? Real rebels out there, I must say. And their elections are so darn honest!...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKQEQ7qHvgM

[sailingaway]

I still say not to focus on NH so much... I mean they chose McCain for crying out loud! My thought is focus on IA and NV (NV is VERY pro Paul), first place in those two and it is down hill from there!

Romney is a powerhouse because of the Morman vote in NV too, and they have made delegates partitionable between the top candidates. But then they can't change allegence until the RNC

We have to fight in all states where we might pick up delegates because there will be some states that simply aren't ripe for that.

[mczerone]

How?
Sorry, not to be a negative nancy, but let's just look at 08 for a sec:

The senior citizens came out in droves and voted for McCain in NH. Why? Well, I don't think it was because RP wasn't getting enough media attention. Many of these people were on Social Security and they PERCEIVED that RP was going to rip their checks right out of their hands, even though of course that was not the case. McCain, they perceived, had their backs.

Young people simply do not turn out for primaries, no matter what the stakes.

This may be tough to accept but I believe it is the truth.

08 was about getting Ron Paul's name out there.
12 is about getting the Philosophy behind the name out there.

This is absolutely true, and the best way to get the senior vote is to compare RP's commitment to current recipients with Obama's and the rest of the Republican's willingness to threaten to stop checks with less than 2 weeks notice to get their political deal done - and the deal will just bankrupt the social welfare systems more dramatically.

Tell old people: your grandchildren will come back from foreign wars, and the money will be used to ensure that payments of social programs continue as relied upon. If you vote for ANYONE else, the wars will continue and SS will be broke again when the debt limit is hit again or the next budget is planned, whatever comes first. Ron Paul brings peace of mind.

[Jeremy]

Sweet!

[orenbus]

Disagree strongly, I think this is a horrible idea. The fact that Ron is NOT using paid shills, and does not have to pay people to shill for him, is something that sets him far apart from the other candidates. When I was in IA for the 2007-8 campaign, giving supporter speeches at the county Republican party meetings and elsewhere, I was the only actual volunteer / voter doing so. The only other people who were willing to speak in front of groups of people on behalf of a candidate were romney's and mccain's paid shills. I took particular delight at seeing the look on the face of mccain's paid shill as I mentioned that I was one of the audience, who had grown up right here in town, was speaking on behalf of a candidate that I supported as a volunteer, and that the others who spoke / were about to speak on behalf of other candidates were people who were only there because they were paid to be. Paying people to shill for Ron would only make his candidacy as phony as the other candidates, and even if those you are speaking / canvassing to are not supportive of Ron, they would see right through this. That Ron's supporters are actually real and not paid shills is something that DOES make a huge impression, and if you do not mention it, people WILL ask you if you are being paid for your time and effort.

Yea I do understand your point I traveled to three different states to do door to door canvassing for the campaign in 07/08 and not everyone, but there were some that were surprised when they asked me and I said I wasn't paid to do this. It's a huge selling point and gets some people to perk up, pay more attention and listen to what you have to say.

With that said however I need to point out that this is a numbers game. The same argument could be said about why use slim jims, tv, radio, phone calls, etc in an election where you have a presidential candidate that shouldn't really need to stoop to the levels that other politicians are in order to win? See how it's kind of a weird argument? I would consider paid canvassers as just another tool in the arsenal.

Now you mentioned arguing against political shills and perhaps in terms of public speakers. I have no problem with that argument and agree for surrogates at public functions it would make sense not to have paid individuals talking on your behalf. in 2007 I was also at a state straw poll where all the other candidates had these surrogates talking on their behalf and you could see right through them that they didn't actually believe strongly in what they were saying as opposed to the speaker for Ron Paul.

However I'm talking about canvassers that would be going door to door and ask a number of scripted questions and hand out slim jims materials and sign people up if they are declared Ron Paul supporters. For example if the the canvasser identifies someone that is interested or planning on voting for Ron Paul then we know this could be a distribution point to get out more information, that means ask them if they were willing to put up a Ron Paul sign in their lawn and possible go door to door themselves to help the campaign, etc. without that type of contact we can't effectively grow our network.

I know this is getting to be a long read so I will cut it short by simply saying in 2007/2008 in New Hampshire I would estimate the volunteers going door to door the weeks leading up to the primary at no more than 300 or 400 if that. In 2008 there were 920,685+ registered voters, 270,000+ of them were Republican and 383,000+ undeclared. Let me ask you can a energetic band of 400 activists reach the hundreds of thousands needed to make an impact? And/or would paid canvassers that can help the volunteers have a broader reach of contact to houses they would normally not be able to cover in the time allowed be beneficial? We need to understand that in the end this is a numbers game yes we need to stick true to our beliefs but utilize the tools needed to win when appropriate.

[Canderson]

I still say not to focus on NH so much... I mean they chose McCain for crying out loud! My thought is focus on IA and NV (NV is VERY pro Paul), first place in those two and it is down hill from there!

I agree, we have better chances in NV, but since the first four award delegates (at least thats my understanding) based on percentages. We need to concentrate on all first four.

[trey4sports]

She won't have Randy Travis at the caucus for GOTV

i think we're starting to see her implosion.

The more i think about it the more im seeing the importance of claiming her as a "tea-partier like Ron Paul" becaue she wont hold-up, and we really need her supporters. I really understand where Rand is coming from when he was on Hannity the other day.

[Original_Intent]

We are going to win or come in second in NH. Quote me on that.

done.

[FA.Hayek]

rock on!

[trey4sports]

I agree, we have better chances in NV, but since the first four award delegates (at least thats my understanding) based on percentages. We need to concentrate on all first four.

The media will largely ignore Nevada if we win, we wont get the top-tier bump that we will if we win Iowa or NH.

[trey4sports]

nvm, double post.

[eleganz]

If we look at the article and poll more closely we can see Ron Paul has about the second highest unfavorable % and almost everybody said their minds were NOT changed from Iowa straw poll.

This is why we need to continue to push harder and harder, NH is not going to be easy but we can still do it.

[Uriah]

@Fredom101

You must also remember that McCain was the continuation of Bush. A main issue then was Iraq/Afghanistan and staying the course in those wars. The older generation seems to support the Bush/McCain view of foreign policy and war. Foreign policy is not tops on the list this election cycle so that could help Paul. However I think we need to find a way to bridge the gap to Bush/McCain supporters. It needs to be shown that a Paul presidency can be tough against America's enemies and at the same time secure this country's economic security and future.

[HOLLYWOOD]

Why is Romney doing so well (36% is huge in this field of candidates) in New Hampshire? He's the antichrist Mr. Mandate from Massachusetts.

The establishment massaging the polls that much?

[sailingaway]

If we look at the article and poll more closely we can see Ron Paul has about the second highest unfavorable % and almost everybody said their minds were NOT changed from Iowa straw poll.

This is why we need to continue to push harder and harder, NH is not going to be easy but we can still do it.

I bet a lot of that is a misunderstanding of his social security position since the media loves to pretend he would yank it away from seniors. And if everyone else loves him, that percentage can hate him, anyhow.

[Aratus]

if mitt romney & rick perry go into a hair pulling contest with an acrimonious downward spiral,
rep. ron paul needs to draw the people who want stability and common sense into HIS campaign.
i feel mitt + rick are about to go at it, despite the fact that they look like a ticket. it will get totally
ugly fast, even though gentleman mitt does not brawl like as if he's on a bar stool. this will make
the spats between michele + t~paw look mild & saintly. governor rick wants mitt's fatcats bad!

[tremendoustie]

we need to double down and work twice as hard. does anyone have any contacts with the grassroots in NH? Are they actively working on this or are we all just talking about it?

I'm in nh -- my wife and I are going to the hq grand opening tonight.

[trey4sports]

with our foreign policy i think it is inevitable that our unfave's in a GOP primary will be very high but its also important to note that 40% can still win a primary so we need to work on ensuring those that view Paul favorably view him VERY favorably and that we can bring in indies to help neuter the war hawk vote.

[mtmedlin]

We did poorly in New Hampshire because he wasnt in the top 3 in Iowa. The Media was succesfull in painting Ron as being un-electable. This is why we have to raise big money quick. Ron needs to be able to drop $3 million in Iowa alone. Last time he was looking at a national campaign, this time I am hoping they spend the bank on Iowa and NH. we were basically out of the race before super tuesday. Top 2 showing in either state makes us a contender and the media cannot marginalize our support.

[mtmedlin]

I'm in nh -- my wife and I are going to the hq grand opening tonight.

Pictures would be nice :)

[eleganz]

If we look at the article and poll more closely we can see Ron Paul has about the second highest unfavorable % and almost everybody said their minds were NOT changed from Iowa straw poll.

This is why we need to continue to push harder and harder, NH is not going to be easy but we can still do it.

[puppetmaster]

romney ......the live free or die state....pluuuulease

[orenbus]

We did poorly in New Hampshire because he wasnt in the top 3 in Iowa. The Media was succesfull in painting Ron as being un-electable. This is why we have to raise big money quick. Ron needs to be able to drop $3 million in Iowa alone. Last time he was looking at a national campaign, this time I am hoping they spend the bank on Iowa and NH. we were basically out of the race before super tuesday. Top 2 showing in either state makes us a contender and the media cannot marginalize our support.

Agreed.

[tremendoustie]

Pictures would be nice :)

Will do!

[SpicyTurkey]

Amazing, amazing numbers.

[johnrocks]

Someone smarter than me needs to organize voter drives in these early States,get disenchanted Democrats and Independents to join the GOP and vote for RP, we're not going to win with the same cast of characters from 08 controlling the GOP.

[ihsv]

The problem is, Ron Paul could win the presidential election and the media will STILL treat him as if he didn't exist.

I think the internet is going to play an even bigger roll this time around than last election season. I also feel that the MSM will discover, as much as they would like to ignore the facts, that their influence is severely diminished. The more they ignore him, the more people realize something stinks at News Corp, et al (and it ain't just phone tapping).

[anewvoice]

This sounds eerily like the build up to the last go around. Please don't make the same mistake again.
...
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

One main difference last time though, we were not polling at 15%, we all just believed that we should be and the polls were lying. What we should learn is, the polls are in fact generally accurate and we need to push to 25% to win!

[atliens]

Ron's numbers can only go up from here. The media blackout is just starting to be exposed, and Perry's closet of skeletons will be exposed. so this is kinda promising.

[samsung1]

more new post iowa straw poll polls should be coming out soon and we shall see if we got more of an Iowa bump

[Johnnybags]

Romney will win handily in NH. The old farts up there have no clue and just vote the next in line. Trust me, I listened to a bunch of them talking politics. The young people will vote Paul as they get it. However Romney will lose 1/3 or so of his support to PERRY, Ron virtually none. Prediction. Romney 31, Perry 17, Paul 15, Bachman 12 others no factor. I would love to see Perry eat in a few more points of Romneys though.

[samsung1]

Romney will win handily in NH. The old farts up there have no clue and just vote the next in line. Trust me, I listened to a bunch of them talking politics. The young people will vote Paul as they get it. However Romney will lose 1/3 or so of his support to PERRY, Ron virtually none. Prediction. Romney 31, Perry 17, Paul 15, Bachman 12 others no factor. I would love to see Perry eat in a few more points of Romneys though.

am I correct in saying that only the top 2 will receive the share of the delegates? we need to finish top 2 in iowa and NH

[Slutter McGee]

I think we need to win one state out of the first four. If that state is Iowa then we need at least one second place as well. If we don't place first or second in Iowa or NH I figure the smart move is to skip SC and throw all our eggs into one basket in Nevada. I think we will know after Nevada if this is an educational campaign or if we have a chance to win.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[trey4sports]

I think we need to win one state out of the first four. If that state is Iowa then we need at least one second place as well. If we don't place first or second in Iowa or NH I figure the smart move is to skip SC and throw all our eggs into one basket in Nevada. I think we will know after Nevada if this is an educational campaign or if we have a chance to win.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee


Nevada will be ignored if we win. S.C, N.H. and Iowa all get enough media attention that a win would help us break through but Nevada i don't believe would do such a thing.

[samsung1]

I think we need to win one state out of the first four. If that state is Iowa then we need at least one second place as well. If we don't place first or second in Iowa or NH I figure the smart move is to skip SC and throw all our eggs into one basket in Nevada. I think we will know after Nevada if this is an educational campaign or if we have a chance to win.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

I agree. we make it to super Tuesday and hope to win West Virginia, Texas,and maybe Rand can deliver Kentucky for us.

[Shane Harris]

the way paul separates himself from the rest of the pack to appeal to seniors is to say that the system is broken and the only way they will receive checks that are worth anything is to pull back our over-encumbered and bulky overseas empire and focus on our own national defense and use money saved from all the wars to make sure seniors get their ss checks. no other candidate can do this without further hurting our economy

[Slutter McGee]

Nevada will be ignored if we win. S.C, N.H. and Iowa all get enough media attention that a win would help us break through but Nevada i don't believe would do such a thing.

I really dont think we have a chance in SC.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[orenbus]

They just showed this poll result on Fox News on Brett Baier's show.

I'm paraphrasing what was said but basically the comment was:
"Ron Paul supporters have a fair complaint following the Iowa Straw Poll, I don't see Bachmann as a presumptive nominee and not thinking Ron Paul has a fair shot at it."

[Agorism]

drudge it?

[Agorism]

send to drudge. get all our good headlines in

[parocks]

Not to speak for someone else, but I believe the 10% number is from earlier this primary cycle, not 2007.

In 2007-8 we were over 10% in at least some polls, and ended up at 8%.

[samsung1]

We can Win Iowa. iowa will be key and finishing top 2 in NH. then lets take it from there. We might have a decent chance in Florida to place or show

[parocks]

I really dont think we have a chance in SC.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

Out of IA, NH, SC, NV - we have the least chance in SC.

[rich34]

Now I'm not the most certain of how the Iowa caucus works, but I seem to remember candidates supporters teaming up on other single candidates in order to give the one a victory. John Edwards supporters teaming up with John Kerry come to mind when they defeated Howard Dean if I remember that right. Just throwing this out there for the folks on the ground that might want to make sure we can make allies for caucus night. I'm not sure who would be the most willing to back Paul, but based on rhetoric maybe Bachmann? I hope those guys on the ground play their cards right because I can definitely see the establishment triple teaming us if need be to prevent a Paul victory in Iowa.

[orenbus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eJ4BJhFGls

[eleganz]

Now I'm not the most certain of how the Iowa caucus works, but I seem to remember candidates supporters teaming up on other single candidates in order to give the one a victory. John Edwards supporters teaming up with John Kerry come to mind when they defeated Howard Dean if I remember that right. Just throwing this out there for the folks on the ground that might want to make sure we can make allies for caucus night. I'm not sure who would be the most willing to back Paul, but based on rhetoric maybe Bachmann? I hope those guys on the ground play their cards right because I can definitely see the establishment triple teaming us if need be to prevent a Paul victory in Iowa.

This is a great point, at some point we really do need Bachmann's support because I have a feeling she can't make it all the way. What happened to Pawlenty? is he going to be endorsing anybody?

[samsung1]

This is a great point, at some point we really do need Bachmann's support because I have a feeling she can't make it all the way. What happened to Pawlenty? is he going to be endorsing anybody?

TPAWS supporters probably will go to Perry

[truthdivides]

Out of IA, NH, SC, NV - we have the least chance in SC.

Agreed. I think we need to be 1st in IA and NV, top 2 in NH, top 3 in SC.

[Cleaner44]

Ron Paul is without any doubt a top tier candidate. Consistent double digits. The media needs to stop trying to guess who will win and just report the facts.

[JJonesMBA]

What's the strategy to counter the remnants, if any, of 2008's surprise racist smear campaign the day of the primary, and guard against such allegations in the future?

[kylejack]

One main difference last time though, we were not polling at 15%, we all just believed that we should be and the polls were lying. What we should learn is, the polls are in fact generally accurate and we need to push to 25% to win!
Rasmussen poll, 1/4/08 had us at 14% in NH.

[parocks]

How?
Sorry, not to be a negative nancy, but let's just look at 08 for a sec:

The senior citizens came out in droves and voted for McCain in NH. Why? Well, I don't think it was because RP wasn't getting enough media attention. Many of these people were on Social Security and they PERCEIVED that RP was going to rip their checks right out of their hands, even though of course that was not the case. McCain, they perceived, had their backs.

Young people simply do not turn out for primaries, no matter what the stakes.

This may be tough to accept but I believe it is the truth.

08 was about getting Ron Paul's name out there.
12 is about getting the Philosophy behind the name out there.

We have to get 18-34 voting. It's not impossible.

[parocks]

excellent crosstabs

http://www.scribd.com/doc/62506259/New-Hampshire-2012-Republican-Primary-Survey-Crosstabs-081711


ron paul 18-34 fav/unfav/don't know - 56/35/7 - 65+ - 30/55/15

Overall favorables 18-34

romney 60/30/10
paul 56/35/7
bachmann 50/33/17
perry 40/33/13
cain 33/30/22
huntsman 25/50/25
santorum 24/48/16
gingrich 23/61/16

Among age groups ron paul is
2nd - 18-34
2nd - 35-44
3rd - 45-54
3rd - 55-64
4th - 65+

of 65+
romney 45%
perry 19%
bachmann 11%
paul 8%

ron paul w/
ind men - 21%
men 18-54 - 21%

ron paul wins those who don't like romney -
paul 27% 39
perry 21% 31
bachmann 18% 27
cain 5.5% 8
romney 4.9%

Among people with an Unfavorable opinion of Romney
Romney - 7 votes
Huntsman - 7 votes
Gingrich - 4 votes
Santorum - 3 votes

http://www.scribd.com/doc/62506259/New-Hampshire-2012-Republican-Primary-Survey-Crosstabs-081711

[trey4sports]

We have to get 18-34 voting. It's not impossible.

It's much more plausible that we target old folks as opposed to counting on the 18-34 yr old segment to vote. That is historically, not likely.

[Fetou]

It's much more plausible that we target old folks as opposed to counting on the 18-34 yr old segment to vote. That is historically, not likely.
I agree to an extent, but nothing about this campaign is likely. With the media acting as a dedicated opponent, we can't really target the elderly at the moment. They don't spend a lot of time on Internet news sites and forums, and our ideas and message never gets properly presented to them

[Karsten]

Rasmussen poll, 1/4/08 had us at 14% in NH.

Yes but it was an outlier and his highest of the polls.
Now we are seeing a flurry of polls showing well into the double didgits.

[Karsten]

Plus, remember that we were 1-2% at this stage of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire back in 2007! We finished with 10% in Iowa (more than the 9.1% we got in the 07 straw poll, I might add), and I believe 8% in NH. Not very good, but we did multiply our supporters. Multiply our current polling by 2.5 times or more, and we could conservatively bet that we will win!

I might add too, that it is important that Romney and Bachman stay in the race for as long as possible to split the establishment vote with Perry.

[parocks]

It's much more plausible that we target old folks as opposed to counting on the 18-34 yr old segment to vote. That is historically, not likely.

I'm talking about the grassroots here. Not the official campaign. The grassroots should be targeting the young. Because the young like us. And the old don't.

It appears that the official campaign might be more expert in reaching the old. Persuading the old. doing standard GOTV. We should help them.

What we should be doing, the grassroots, is making sure that 18-34 year olds are registered to vote in the primary and that they do vote. Just do that.

I just "normed" this poll. I made the assumption that everyone was equally likely to vote. Ron Paul beat Rick Perry under those conditions. I am not arguing that typically
young people vote as often as old people. I know that's not the case, I'm saying that IF everyone voted at the same rate, Ron Paul would be ahead of Rick Perry in NH.
The results are in a different post on this thread.

[parocks]

****************************
*******************************

2010 New Hampshire census data
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table

Total population 1,316,470 649,394 667,076 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.3

18 to 24 years 123,114 62,526 60,588 9.4 9.6 9.1 103.2

25 to 34 years 144,472 72,239 72,233 11.0 11.1 10.8 100.0

65 years and over 178,268 79,044 99,224 13.5 12.2 14.9 79.7

Total 18-34 267,586

number more 18-34s than 65+s - 89,318

about 3:2

Merrimack poll

18-34 - 43
65+ - 172

that's exactly 1:4

so, basically, the Magellan people think that a 65+ person is 6 times more likely than a 18-34 year old
to vote in this primary.

We do extremely well in 18-34. We get 28%.
We do very badly in 65+. We get 8%.

If we changed the assumptions, and assumed that as many 18-34s voted as 65+,

12 to 48 +36
6 to 24 +18
+18
If we changed the assumptions, and assumed that 18-34s were as likely to vote as 65+
12 to 72 +60
6 to 36 +30
+30 (passes Perry)

number asked / population / ratio

18- 43 - 267,586 - 6.209
35- 92 - 179,178 - 1.945
45- 166 - 225,961 - 1.355
55- 141 - 178,243 - 1.262
65- 172 - 178,268 - 1.034

to get "normed" scores.

the number of votes per demo x factor = normed total
ron paul
18- 12 - 6.209 - 74.508
35- 18 - 1.945 - 35.01
45- 25 - 1.355 - 33.875
55- 19 - 1.262 - 23.978
65- 14 - 1.034 - 14.476
total paul 181.847

rick perry
18- 6 - 6.209 - 37.254
35- 12 - 1.945 - 23.34
45- 37 - 1.355 - 50.135
55- 25 - 1.262 - 31.55
65- 32 - 1.034 - 33.088
total perry 175.367

[parocks]

Now I'm not the most certain of how the Iowa caucus works, but I seem to remember candidates supporters teaming up on other single candidates in order to give the one a victory. John Edwards supporters teaming up with John Kerry come to mind when they defeated Howard Dean if I remember that right. Just throwing this out there for the folks on the ground that might want to make sure we can make allies for caucus night. I'm not sure who would be the most willing to back Paul, but based on rhetoric maybe Bachmann? I hope those guys on the ground play their cards right because I can definitely see the establishment triple teaming us if need be to prevent a Paul victory in Iowa.

Palin

[Havax]

Dear god I hope these "peace sign" t-shirt wearing people are not supporting Romney: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/sites/default/files/styles/blog_listing_full/public/3b6f539f5d8b0e12f60e6a706700e3aa.jpg

[minuteman76]

Dear god I hope these "peace sign" t-shirt wearing people are not supporting Romney: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/sites/default/files/styles/blog_listing_full/public/3b6f539f5d8b0e12f60e6a706700e3aa.jpg

Isn't that the Bagelheads uniform?

[AZKing]

Just saw this on Fox... gj.

[speciallyblend]

Isn't that the Bagelheads uniform?

yeah i think your correct on that!! so they shake his hand and then go out back to smoke a joint. I would at least shake his hand and make sure i smelled like marijuana:) just to piss romney off:)

[specsaregood]

so, basically, the Magellan people think that a 65+ person is 6 times more likely than a 18-34 year old
to vote in this primary.


Well they are probably right about that.

[xRedfoxx]

Dear god I hope these "peace sign" t-shirt wearing people are not supporting Romney: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/sites/default/files/styles/blog_listing_full/public/3b6f539f5d8b0e12f60e6a706700e3aa.jpg

We should start a "Hippies for Romney" movement. It will help turn off the blue-hairs for voting for him. Just like we need to start a web site for "Communists for Perry"

[minuteman76]

yeah i think your correct on that!! so they shake his hand and then go out back to smoke a joint. I would at least shake his hand and make sure i smelled like marijuana:) just to piss romney off:)

The tiny alien operating "the Mitt" actually has an insatiable bagel appetite. Not a very well known fact, but true nonetheless.