PPP - Wisconsin GOP Presidential Primary Poll

[tsai3904]

Wisconsin (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/thompson-vulnerable-on-right.html)
8/12 - 8/14
362 usual Republican primary voters
+/-5.2%

With Palin:

Bachmann 20%
Perry 20%
Romney 13%
Palin 11%
Cain 7%
Paul 6%
Gingrich 6%
Pawlenty 3%
Huntsman 1%


Without Palin:

Bachmann 24%
Perry 20%
Romney 17%
Gingrich 10%
Cain 7%
Paul 6%
Pawlenty 4%
Huntsman 1%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 0% (0%)
30 to 45 - 13% (11%)
46 to 65 - 6% (5%)
Older than 65 - 0% (2%)


Man 8% (9%)
Woman 3% (3%)


Results from last Wisconsin poll:

Wisconsin (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/trouble-for-thompson-romney-and-palin.html)
5/19 - 5/22
668
+/-3.8%

With Palin:

Romney 17%
Palin 16%
Pawlenty 12%
Bachmann 11%
Paul 10%
Cain 10%
Gingrich 10%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Romney 19%
Pawlenty 15%
Bachmann 14%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%
Cain 11%
Huntsman 3%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 22% (24%)
30 to 45 - 10% (13%)
46 to 65 - 9% (10%)
Older than 65 - 6% (5%)


Man 13% (13%)
Woman 6% (8%)

[Michael Landon]

How is it that he is always at 6% in all of the PPP polls?

- ML

[BUSHLIED]

Well the difference between the two polls is that in the later one, he got 24% among 18 to 29...in the new one he got 0%...which means they probably didn't poll cell-phones that much...surprising that he didn't anything with the age group, the poll must be flawed or deliberate.

[RonPaul101.com]

How is it that he is always at 6% in all of the PPP polls?

- ML

Because they never get a good enough sample size. I don't trust a statistical population under 500. Also note the youth demographic (18 to 29 - 0% (0%) ) in the latest poll. We KNOW this is an anomoly amoung young voters. If the survey would have included a normal amount of young voters his percentages would have been double. My guess (admittedly without knowing) is that this survey was a home phone/landline phone survey, which is becoming a much less accurate method of polling with every passing day; but moreso for Ron Paul supporters.

[D.A.S.]

I respect Rasmussen polls, no matter what they say about Dr. Paul's performance... The recent CNN/ORP polls have also been pretty good.

I don't know about PPP - they may be skewed in their polling techniques if they know which market a certain candidate excels in and avoid that market deliberately.

[sailingaway]

So we went down. Well, I did expect to see some of that from the debate until we turned it around. The Iran comments he made would lose some support, but bringing in new support requires people to first have their attention caught by the debate and then research him. We have been seeing a major uptick here, of new support, though, and that will translate. His numbers were trending up before then, though, so it is a pain.

[sailingaway]

I respect Rasmussen polls, no matter what they say about Dr. Paul's performance... The recent CNN/ORP polls have also been pretty good.

I don't know about PPP - they may be skewed in their polling techniques if they know which market a certain candidate excels in and avoid that market deliberately.

PPP is a Dem polling company and has been going to huge lengths to NOT poll Ron head to head against Obama, after last year determining that Ron was in a class by himself amongst GOP in his attraction for independent voters. When they polled Texas they actually only polled Republicans even though it is an open primary. Since they had polled every other candidate against Obama in his home state they did poll Ron there, though, finding he beat Obama by 5 points (Romney and only Romney polled better and Perry LOST to Obama by 2 points -- in TEXAS!)

Anyhow, I am sure they stay withing generally accepted polling procedures, but there is a lot of wiggle room to be found within those models for a company that is really trying.

[erowe1]

If the survey would have included a normal amount of young voters his percentages would have been double.

A normal amount of young voters is maybe 2% of all voters. So no, his percentage would not have doubled.

[ItsTime]

Well the difference between the two polls is that in the later one, he got 24% among 18 to 29...in the new one he got 0%...which means they probably didn't poll cell-phones that much...surprising that he didn't anything with the age group, the poll must be flawed or deliberate.

So this is how they are going to play it. Has it been like this in a lot of the new poll numbers?

[fatjohn]

The old people are going to ruin our fututer even more.

[erowe1]

The old people are going to ruin our fututer even more.

Don't worry. If something can't last forever, it won't.

[Agorism]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0817513.pdf



PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Michele Bachmann 24%
Rick Perry 20%
Mitt Romney 17%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Herman Cain 7%
Ron Paul 6%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Jon Huntsman 1%
US SENATE – WISCONSIN – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Tommy Thompson 47%
Mark Neumann 39%

[undergroundrr]

Besides the younger demographic, he also got the best response from people describing themselves as "moderate" or "somewhat liberal".

[Badger Paul]

362 usual primary voters are a bunch old farts and neocon suburbanites from outside Milwaukee. I wouldn't read much into it.

Remember, it's an open primary Dems can vote in as well. And it will pushed back to April.