New Rasmussen Poll #'s at 1pm Eastern on Fox News

[JTforRP]

RasmussenPoll Scott Rasmussen
Will be on Fox News at 1pm ET with brand new numbers on race for the Republican nomination…

Scott just tweeted this...for anyone interested and will be around a TV in a half hour.

I'm waiting anxiously.

[Aliangel]

....thnx

[trey4sports]

ehh, not expecting great news.

[Son of Detroit]

The last Rasmussen poll was late July:

Romney 22%
Perry 18%
Bachmann 16%
Paul 10%
Cain 9%
Gingrich 6%

[Zarn Solen]

I doubt Paul supporters are going to be 'likely' voters.

[IndianaPolitico]

I think Paul will still be in fourth, but the field will compress.

[Canderson]

If they are actually talking about it, we didn't do well

[truthdivides]

If they are actually talking about it, we didn't do well

Not necessarily. They just won't say his name or his percentage. They'll say, Perry is in the lead with 20%, Romney in 2nd with 17%, and Bachmann in 4th with 12%.

[sailingaway]

ehh, not expecting great news.

Not hardly given a) Rasmussen has been saying 'Ron's time has passed' and not even always including him, b) Ron was COMPLETELY SHUT OUT of the media, and c) Rasmussen may or may not poll independents and the downside of Ron's debate answers is going to hit before the upside sends new people to become supporters.

But, it is what it is. I'm looking at the next round of polls, though.

[Romulus]

If they are actually talking about it, we didn't do well

That's what I'm worried about.

[trey4sports]

Not hardly given a) Rasmussen has been saying 'Ron's time has passed' and not even always including him, b) Ron was COMPLETELY SHUT OUT of the media, and c) Rasmussen may or may not poll independents and the downside of Ron's debate answers is going to hit before the upside sends new people to become supporters.

But, it is what it is. I'm looking at the next round of polls, though.



I would agree with all your points, but i would also mention it is Iowa that we should be worrying about more than nationwide at this point. If we want to really win were going to have to put all our eggs into Iowa and hope to win FORCING the media to cover us.

[Aliangel]

....its coming up on top of the hour ...i think she said you'll be surprised who came up on top..bs sounds like a perry bump.

[sailingaway]

Not necessarily. They just won't say his name or his percentage. They'll say, Perry is in the lead with 20%, Romney in 2nd with 17%, and Bachmann in 4th with 12%.

Rasmussen is pushing their new radio show. They release the polls there to get people to listen. This is the third. On the first they outright didn't mention Ron at all, just everyone above him and everyone below him. Literally. I didn't listen to the second but when I went to the write up in Rasmussen itself it had Ron buried as best they could given he was in third or fourth place (they said Cain comes n Fourth behind Ron Paul, or whatever the number was....) and that was the only mention of Ron, and they put Cain at the start of the paragraph leading into 'lower tier' clearly.

[trey4sports]

....its coming up on top of the hour ...i think she said you'll be surprised who came up on top..bs sounds like a perry bump.

Yeah, I would agree.

[Agorism]

If we do well-----> drudge it

[Agorism]

Is his radio show on this afternoon?

[Aliangel]

ok shes on...

[Havax]

Is this a national poll or Iowa primary poll?

[FSP-Rebel]

Ryan and Christie maybe in.

[Romulus]

Updates?

[opal]

I have the website streaming right now.. did I miss it?

[FSP-Rebel]

I have the website streaming right now.. did I miss it?

no

[IndianaPolitico]

Rick Perry 1st 29%
Romney 2nd 18%.
Bachmann 13%.
Ron Paul 4th 9%.

[FSP-Rebel]

They just had to make a major slot for "not sure."

[Kords21]

When you're at the top this early, there's only one way to go...

[woodrow]

Perry 29%
Romney 18%
Bachman 13%
Paul 9%

[hellsingfan]

Perry 29%
Romney 18%
Bachmann 13%
Paul 9%
.....

[JTforRP]

Brutal.

[IndianaPolitico]

Scott just warned that even though Perry is at the top, the race is just beginning.

[Bobster]

As it was reported on the infographic:

Perry
Romney
Bachmann
Not Sure
Paul

[Fetou]

Rick Perry 1st 29%
Romney 2nd 18%.
Bachmann 13%.
Ron Paul 4th 9%.
Anybody think the Gallup will come out better?

[netwalker]

Perry 29%
Romney 18%
Bachmann 13%
Paul 9%
.....

I think they got Romney and Paul's numbers mixed up :rolleyes:

[FSP-Rebel]

It's ok to talk about Paul now since he's @ 9%.

[Agorism]

Not the best, not terrible.

[woodrow]

16 % undecided

[RonPaulFever]

The Iran question.

[Aliangel]

It has nothing to do with Iran, its the sheeple poll.

Now im mad

[IndianaPolitico]

Since the last poll Romney went down 4% and Bachmann by 3%. Paul only went down by 1%.

[Romulus]

undecided? Since when has that been an option?

[Bobster]

Remember guys, we have the momentum. All we have to do is keep emphasizing that Ron Paul was the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party. For the neocons, use his Reagan endorsement and campaigning for him at the 1976 RNC.

[mwkaufman]

Bachmann is falling back to earth nationally, 19->16->13 in the last three Rasmussen polls. Paul is just holding steady 7->10->9. It would've been nice to see a boost, but Bachmann's numbers will bottom out soon and Perry is going to start falling also.

[Zarn Solen]

What were the polling dates?

[Aliangel]

we need perry to start crashing and Ron to start going up

[IndianaPolitico]

I think that our numbers will climb soon due to the Straw Poll, and the new ad.

[Aliangel]

What were the polling dates?

Monday night thru telephone, so 8/15/2011

[Join The Paul Side]

What else could we expect from a poll of 1000 people infested with Neocons and their love of a guy that appears to be a Bush Clone. :eek:

[Aliangel]

true...actual results may vary...lol

[FSP-Rebel]

The poll by Rasmussen taken 2 Sundays ago had Ron @ 14%, so we're down 5.

[somename043]

The poll by Rasmussen taken 2 Sundays ago had Ron @ 14%, so we're down 5.

that was the gallop/usatoday poll

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-08-08-poll-gallup-election_n.htm

last rasmussen poll had him at 10% so only down 1%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/romney_perry_bachmann_run_close_among_gop_primary_ voters

[majinkoola]

Not worried. Trump was leading not too long ago.

[Romulus]

What else could we expect from a poll of 1000 people infested with Neocons and their love of a guy that appears to be a Bush Clone. :eek:

I'm not a pollster, but is 1000 people polled normal? Seems low, and results would vary wildly from that.

[majinkoola]

Look at realclearpolitics. Palin's average on there is 10. Bachmann's is now 9.6, while Paul's is 8.8. The order, though, is Bachmann, Palin, Paul. I don't know if they just haven't changed that yet but what?

And why was not sure, at 16%, behind Bachmann's 13% but ahead of Ron's 9% in this Rasmussen poll?

[Kludge]

Ras posted full survey results & a write-up @ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/gop_primary_perry_29_romney_18_bachmann_13

[IndianaPolitico]

And why was not sure, at 16%, behind Bachmann's 13% but ahead of Ron's 9% in this Rasmussen poll?
Because if they didn't put it there, Ron would be in 4th.

[Agorism]

1% is within the margin of error. No real change in this poll.

Only story is the other candidates are losing support to Perry.

[Join The Paul Side]

I'm not a pollster, but is 1000 people polled normal? Seems low, and results would vary wildly from that.

I suppose that is normal for Rassmussen and their list of "likely" Republican voters. It stated at the bottom that only 1000 people were polled. And yes, in my opinion that is very low.

Also, I agree. It does not reflect Democrats and Independents that would more likely vote for Ron than the rest of the Establishment Plants. ;)

[IndianaPolitico]

1% is within the margin of error. No real change in this poll.

Only story is the other candidates are losing support to Perry.

Ron Paul's support is now a solid 10%. All that we have to do is win Iowa, and the momentum will carry us onward.

[blakjak]

Paul, who emerged as a Cinderella of sorts from the Saturday straw poll, is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 45%.

ouch

[LibertyEagle]

Remember guys, we have the momentum. All we have to do is keep emphasizing that Ron Paul was the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party. For the neocons, use his Reagan endorsement and campaigning for him at the 1976 RNC.

Perry is claiming that for himself now. ROFL.

[FSP-Rebel]

that was the gallop/usatoday poll

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-08-08-poll-gallup-election_n.htm

last rasmussen poll had him at 10% so only down 1%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/romney_perry_bachmann_run_close_among_gop_primary_ voters
I stand corrected. I was actually thinking of the one (2 Sundays ago) where they released the IA #s where Ron was @ 16%.

[misconstrued]

Anyone have a screenshot of how Fox showed it on air?

[FSP-Rebel]

Anyone have a screenshot of how Fox showed it on air?

They showed it in order of numbers, "not sure" was between Romney and Bachmann.

[LibertyEsq]

I can't believe this. Rick Perry? The media really is telling us who the next president will be...

[mcgraw_wv]

No increase at all is bad news... No National Media... We need to face facts that Media Pundits, are the face of politics to the vast majority of Americans.. and if they aren't talking about him, or when they do they bad mouth him... WE simply aren't going to increase the base.

Sad...

[sailingaway]

I'm not worried about Perry's bump:

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/statesman/politifact/011510_perry1.pdf

that being only one reason. It is like Trump Cain and Bachmann.

I am PISSED by Ron's numbers being lower than double digits from media treatment, as far as I am concerned.

But fourth is ok for right now. Perry won't lose all his support because he is establishment and he clearly splits that with Romney plus has the bump from people who simply don't know him. But it is going to be straightforward to address that. His record is really bad.

[Ethan]

1000 is the typical same size for polls.
2000 is considered large, 10000 very large (and very rare).
100-700 are the "small" samples.
This is one of the reasons that exit polls are so much more accurate.

[ItsTime]

1k people polled over the phone /> 16k people at a straw poll

[JTforRP]

These numbers concern me quite a bit. We have a big hill to climb. People can point to past candidates making huge surges to the top, but all of them had one advantage we won't have: HUGE boosts from the media. McCain was forced down the public's throats last year. Ron Paul won't be.

UNLESS, of course, WE make it happen. Videos like the Jon Stewart segment are a great start. I've received great feedback on Facebook and several non-Paul supporter friends of mine have taken notice, and even re-posted it.

Don't lose hope, but also, don't take the "My 20 dollars won't make a difference" approach. We need every soldier of this army going balls to the wall.

[mconder]

This is just proof that whoever the MSN anoints will be the "front runner," regardless. I mean, where the hell is the Romney campaign even? I can't find anyone who likes him.

The MSN are kingmakers, and it looks like it will stay this way until a majority of American's stop believing the "news."

[trey4sports]

I'm not a pollster, but is 1000 people polled normal? Seems low, and results would vary wildly from that.

it's pretty high actually. Most polls have around 600

[Deborah K]

Perry at 29%
Paul at 9%

[trey4sports]

I suppose that is normal for Rassmussen and their list of "likely" Republican voters. It stated at the bottom that only 1000 people were polled. And yes, in my opinion that is very low.

Also, I agree. It does not reflect Democrats and Independents that would more likely vote for Ron than the rest of the Establishment Plants. ;)


The polls were right in '08 and thinking they're magically going to be wrong in '12 wont get us anywhere. We must fight to increase our poll numbers rather than be blind to the truth. Dem's don't vote in GOP primaries either, at least not in large enough numbers to skew the results.

[Deborah K]

Perry is the flavor of the month. When his record is revealed it will all change.

[sailingaway]

Hm. This is a big point:


Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on August 15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary

I don't know how they calculate it, but a lot of our folks are swing voters and even Dems might cross over this election because Obama is no longer 'Hope and Change'. If they looked to who IN THE PAST voted in GOP primaries, heck, prior to Ron's last election cycle, I didn't myself. And I've been a Republican forever, just none of the candidates ever captured my imagination enough to really care about them at the primary stage. I looked into the last primary only because I despised McCain, and deeply regretted Bush.

[trey4sports]

These numbers concern me quite a bit. We have a big hill to climb. People can point to past candidates making huge surges to the top, but all of them had one advantage we won't have: HUGE boosts from the media. McCain was forced down the public's throats last year. Ron Paul won't be.

UNLESS, of course, WE make it happen. Videos like the Jon Stewart segment are a great start. I've received great feedback on Facebook and several non-Paul supporter friends of mine have taken notice, and even re-posted it.

Don't lose hope, but also, don't take the "My 20 dollars won't make a difference" approach. We need every soldier of this army going balls to the wall.

you are correct.

[matt0611]

I think Perrys numbers are inflated from all the media attention he has gotten in the last few weeks. I think it will start to drop lower in a few weeks.

Remember when Trump, Cain, and Bachmann got their media bumps? It will pass.

But yeah, we do have a lot of work to do still.

[trey4sports]

Hm. This is a big point:



I don't know how they calculate it, but a lot of our folks are swing voters and even Dems might cross over this election because Obama is no longer 'Hope and Change'. If they looked to who IN THE PAST voted in GOP primaries, heck, prior to Ron's last election cycle, I didn't myself. And I've been a Republican forever, just none of the candidates ever captured my imagination enough to really care about them at the primary stage. I looked into the last primary only because I despised McCain, and deeply regretted Bush.


Unfortunately, I think '08 proved that however the polling firms do their polling, it tends to work because they were pretty much right on the money.

[Agorism]

Frothy is at 1%, the most marginal candidate ever.

Kick the Frothy one out of the debates.

He doesn't even follow the rules of the debate when he attends as he continues to interrupt when Ron Paul gets his time allotment.

[Romulus]

lol @ Frothy

Let the Perry FUD campaign begin.

[randomname]

Anyone have a screenshot of how Fox showed it on air?
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/9127/37387957.png

[Chieppa1]

We should really try to spin this as negative as possible.....wait, that doesn't make sense. Is that the plan for this thread?

And who is shocked? Honestly? Seems to me like some people here are waiting for the day when the bias dies and everyone on TV and media wears "Ron Paul 2012" shirt so they can say "they really LIKE us!!!".

Never going to happen. Take the positive from this poll. Perry jumped in and the media will run with him for a bit. Big fucking deal, its August. Of 2011.

[libertybrewcity]

not surprised about the Perry bump.

[Badger Paul]

It means we're in the top four, that is what it means. Not sure can't be the GOP nominee.

[djruden]

Let us not forget how low in polling and fundraising John McCain was at this point in the last election cycle. I think he was much lower than where Paul is now.

This is a marathon race Dr. Paul is in, not a sprint. He is still looking good as far as I can see.

[speciallyblend]

Let us not forget how low in polling and fundraising John McCain was at this point in the last election cycle. I think he was much lower than where Paul is now.

This is a marathon race Dr. Paul is in, not a sprint. He is still looking good as far as I can see.

yep in the end if the gp marginalizes ron paul and does not nominate him! i firmly believe the gop will elect obama! not one democrat or indy i know would vote for bachmann,romney,perry or any gop est. The gop has caused this themselves!! does the gop really think we would vote for a big government gop establishment neo-con? no matter how much they candy coat it?? They have 2 choices now Ron or Rand or Both;) unless there is someone that can rise to the RON PAUL REPUBLICAN BAR!!

if the gop establishment keeps adding more est/neocons to the field? should we not add more liberty candidates to the field? :) yes you know who i am saying:) Rand Paul:)

[ChiefJustice]

yep in the end if the gp marginalizes ron paul and does not nominate him! i firmly believe the gop will elect obama! not one democrat or indy i know would vote for bachmann,romney,perry or any gop est. The gop has caused this themselves!! does the gop really think we would vote for a big government gop establishment neo-con? no matter how much they candy coat it?? They have 2 choices now Ron or Rand or Both;) unless there is someone that can rise to the RON PAUL REPUBLICAN BAR!!

if the gop establishment keeps adding more est/neocons to the field? should we not add more liberty candidates to the field? :) yes you know who i am saying:) Rand Paul:)
Your point about the other voters is key. Even the disenchanted Democrats and other Indys would take the lesser evil. They are apalled by Bachmann and Perry in particular. Its either Obama or Paul.

[Join The Paul Side]

The polls were right in '08 and thinking they're magically going to be wrong in '12 wont get us anywhere. We must fight to increase our poll numbers rather than be blind to the truth. Dem's don't vote in GOP primaries either, at least not in large enough numbers to skew the results.

In 2008 both parties had candidates running. This go round it's only the Republicans and believe it or not Democrat voters are paying attention to this race along with Independents that may also have buyers remorse in voting for Obama.

It's not far fetched to believe that many will vote for Ron in open promaries or register Republican to vote for him in states with closed primaries. That's all I'm saying.

Furthermore, what was Ron polling in Iowa before the straw poll? Certainly not 28% yet we see he had more support then the polsters gave him credit for.

Still I agree that we shouldn't be complacent. That would be a mistake. ;)

[pacu44]

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/9127/37387957.png

Didnt Fox say that only the folks with 10% or more get to debate?

[Romulus]

Not sure = anyone but Perry/Romney/Bachmann

The win is ours for the taking.

ONWARD