Compare Rasmussen Iowa Poll (Bachmann 22%, Paul 16%, Pawlenty 11%) to Straw Poll 29/28/14

[harikaried]

Any insights into what happened from the Rasmussen poll from 1 week before the straw poll?

Ron Paul gained 6% in the context of the straw poll while the ratio of Bachmann to Pawlenty was about the same -- 2:1.

[BUSHLIED]

the polls don't always reach people who go to the straw poll...the straw poll also reflect campaigns ability to get people out...you could argue that Ron Paul was able to turn out more of his 16% than the other candidates.

Which perhaps is more of a reflection of candidate enthusiasm and voter activism. Ron has more candidate enthusiasm and his voters are more active.

[harikaried]

So assuming both Bachmann and Pawlenty are equal in terms of being able to get their voters to the straw poll, Ron Paul was able to boost his 16% to 22%.

So Ron Paul was able to get 37.5% more of the voters to attend?

Although it's hard to say as the Rasmussen poll includes Romney and Perry. And Bachmann had country music with vote-before-listen requirements.

[harikaried]

Actually, looking at the straw poll results from 2007, Ron Paul received 1,305 votes. That number of votes compared to this year's total number of votes of 16,892 is 7.7%.

Assuming those voters from 2007 returned in 2011, the remainder votes are new and somewhat matches the 16% Ron Paul gets according to Rasmussen. (4,671 - 1,305) / 16,892 = 19.9%

Ron Paul is increasing his dedicated base as well as expanding to mainstream audiences.

[Elwar]

In 2008 the polls started to boost Ron Paul at the last minute from 1-2% to closer to where he actually was polling.

Also remember that they do not poll people on their cell phones.

[trey4sports]

In 2008 the polls started to boost Ron Paul at the last minute from 1-2% to closer to where he actually was polling.

Also remember that they do not poll people on their cell phones.


yes they do.

Look at most of the new gallup/Rasmussen polling and you'll notice they poll about 20% of their total respondents via cell phone.