PDA

View Full Version : The future of the primaries...




realtonygoodwin
08-14-2011, 07:29 PM
I think Romney will continue to lead, and Bachmann and Perry will be at each other's throats. Bachmann has mostly been vetted by now. Perry is being attacked on all sides, by everyone from the Democrats, to Tom Tancredo and Mike Huckabee. He will do the same thing that Trump, Cain, and Bachmann have done, and fade out within a couple months.
Bachmann will go after him and Paul, since we are her two biggest threats. Romney will continue to rise above everyone else. Like I said months ago, we need to make this a two person race, between Romney and Paul.
Bachmann will get a little boost from the Straw Poll, but will also faced increased attacks and pressure. I worry about her health. She was missing from the stage during parts of the previous debate, and she has been giving very brief speeches.
I think Paul's floor is in the 10-12% range currently, and will be unlikely to dip much below that. Depending on how the economy does, he could go well above that.
Pawlenty's supporters will spread out to Perry, a few to Romney, and some to Santorum. Santorum should see a small rise in his poll numbers for the immediate future, but won't be able to raise the funds to stay competitive.
Cain is going to stay where he is, not moving up or down in the polls. As long as he is in the race, he pulls a few votes from Romney, a few from Perry, a few from Paul, and a few from Bachmann. Unless something major happens, he may stay in until the South Carolina primaries.

trey4sports
08-14-2011, 07:34 PM
probably right. I think Bachmann will implode at some point, I don't know when she will implode though....

truthdivides
08-14-2011, 07:46 PM
Hopefully sooner than later and she endorses Paul.

realtonygoodwin
08-14-2011, 07:47 PM
I think she will stay through the Iowa caucuses most likely. That is where she has the best shot at winning.

Karsten
08-14-2011, 08:05 PM
and she endorses Paul.

What are the chances of that happening?

realtonygoodwin
08-14-2011, 09:10 PM
I think they are decent.

IterTemporis
08-14-2011, 09:20 PM
We may get some of Pawlenty's voters.. I was reading a comments section for an article concerning Pawlenty dropping out and I saw 2 people commenting about how since Pawlenty is out, then they will have to switch to RP.

Karsten
08-14-2011, 09:37 PM
We may get some of Pawlenty's voters.. I was reading a comments section for an article concerning Pawlenty dropping out and I saw 2 people commenting about how since Pawlenty is out, then they will have to switch to RP.

I don't get the connection. How is Pawlenty anything like RP?

truthdivides
08-14-2011, 09:43 PM
I don't get the connection. How is Pawlenty anything like RP?

Pawl = Paul? That's all I've got.

dusman
08-14-2011, 09:54 PM
I don't get the connection. How is Pawlenty anything like RP?

I think this is just people voting on their perception of character. I think Pawlenty has a more genuine persona about him, as an establishment candidate than the others. In this regard, it might make sense that they made that kind of jump, if they initially felt Paul was somewhat weaker on the issues.

anaconda
08-14-2011, 09:58 PM
She was missing from the stage during parts of the previous debate,

You're kidding? Ya mean during station breaks? She didn't walk off while questions were being asked did she? I did not see this on the stream.

realtonygoodwin
08-14-2011, 10:01 PM
The station breaks.
And Pawlenty had a decent economic plan. That could appeal to the fiscal conservatives side of the Paul supporters.