Intrade: Ron Paul more than Doubles Chances at winning the Nomination

[Esoteric]

Pre-Iowa Straw Poll: 2.3%.
Post-Iowa Straw Poll: 4.9%

:)

Though we're making headway, right now, here's where the money is:

Perry - 36.9%
Romney - 30.2%
Bachmann - 7.0%
Palin - 6.5%
Huntsmann - 7.0%
Paul - 4.9%
Giuliani - 1.9%
Christie - 1.6%
Gingrich - 0.8%
Cain - 0.5%
Santorum - 0.4%
T-Paw - :D

EDIT: BTW, Bachmann stayed flat.

[malkusm]

Huntsman? Really?

[anewvoice]

Huntsman, really?

[anewvoice]

Huntsman? Really?

HA!

[sailingaway]

Pre-Iowa Straw Poll: 2.3%.
Post-Iowa Straw Poll: 4.9%

:)

Though we're making headway, right now, here's where the money is:

Perry - 36.9%
Romney - 30.2%
Bachmann - 7.0%
Palin - 6.5%
Huntsmann - 7.0%
Paul - 4.9%
Giuliani - 1.9%
Christie - 1.6%

Yeah, I was tracking that yesterday. Meanwhile, no one is reading my article, I think I created a putrid thread title:


For all intents and purposes this has become basically a three- or four-person race: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. Pawlenty is out. While other candidates may stay in, this field has definitely been winnowed, and rather quickly. The debates coming up will be very important as these four candidates position themselves against each other, and seek to find voters. Further, as the other candidates drop out, watch whom they endorse, where their staff goes, and which direction their voters head.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-dowd/iowa-straw-poll-macbeth_b_926532.html

[Aliangel]

EDIT: Disregard Intrade

pathetic. hunstman has more chances of winning the nomination? We should be atleast 15%-20% imo

[wstrucke]

where are these numbers from?

[Aliangel]

where are these numbers from?

Online gamblers

[Esoteric]

where are these numbers from?

Intrade. People bet money on the probability of things happening, and it's usually a good predictor, because people are putting down their hard earned cash. The site of often cited, especially with the political markets.


EDIT: Disregard Intrade

pathetic. hunstman has more chances of winning the nomination? We should be atleast 15%-20% imo

Huntsmann ignored Iowa, but the betting doesn't reflect polls as much as it reflects "perceived electability". After all, winning the election is what the market is for, so a heavy factor is people's perception of whether the person can win, and less so, where they are polling. Polling becomes more relevant later on.

[Aliangel]

Intrade. People bet money on the probability of things happening, and it's usually a good predictor and widely cited, especially with the political markets.

Its not a good indicator. These gamblers have no clue who will vote for Paul in IA or NH , they just bet on the media blackout.

[anewvoice]

@sailingaway
"3.The results of the straw vote once again show that if you have a choice between passion and organization, pick passion every time. The top two candidates at the straw vote did not have the organization the other candidates' had, but they definitely had the commitment and passion of their followers."

Why can they not get it right? We have the passion and the organization, as even most other msm have noted. Our ground game got us this win. Interesting to see that Bachmann is being lumped quickly with Paul, dumping on the tea party so soon?

[libertybrewcity]

Huntsman, really?


Huntsman? Really?

Huntsman? Really?

[Esoteric]

Its not a good indicator. These gamblers have no clue who will vote for Paul in IA or NH , they just bet on the media blackout.

That may be partially the case, but at the same time, we can also become a bit disconnected from the reality of things at times.

Listen, this is still a big move, considering the widespread "unelectable" tag that still persists.

[jclay2]

Man, this race definitely has narrowed and in our favor.

Perry: Forced Vaccinations, Al Gore's Campaign Manager, Voted Against Reagan
Romney: Started platform for Obamacare, supported tarp/bailouts
Bachman: Supported Debt ceiling increases and is basically shallow talking points.

Get some serious security on ron paul, his chances are much higher than places like intrade suggest.

[Fermli]

Ron Paul went from 40/1 (last week) to 16/1 odds (now) on a sportsbetting site. (http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1451382/Next-Presidential-US-Election.html)

In layman's terms, this means that his chances to win went from 2.5% to 6%. Obviously, the odds are a bit incorrect imo, just like intrade, because they overcompensate for media attention (reason Huntsman is higher./same as RP on both sites).

Another thing I found today.
Pinnacle sports (another sports betting site) put up a Romney vs. Perry prop.

GOP nominee will be(either must win for action)?
Perry -127 (56%)
Romney +113 (44%)

[hueylong]

Actually, Intrade has been a very strong predictor. It's a market, and as Ron Paul says, markets are best for determining how things should go. In fact, Intrade swung from Bachmann toward Paul on Friday, and back toward Bachmann during the day on Saturday, accurately calling Bachmann's win in the Ames straw poll.

[sailingaway]

Actually, Intrade has been a very strong predictor. It's a market, and as Ron Paul says, markets are best for determining how things should go. In fact, Intrade swung from Bachmann toward Paul on Friday, and back toward Bachmann during the day on Saturday, accurately calling Bachmann's win in the Ames straw poll.

you could say that, or you could say that as it was reported MB had 6000 tickets and Ron 4000, intrade bounced to MB. It happens we almost tied. But if it is low volume people can manipulate it.

[StilesBC]

If you really don't think Intrade is pricing Ron's chances properly, then buy some shares!

[trey4sports]

Intrade. People bet money on the probability of things happening, and it's usually a good predictor, because people are putting down their hard earned cash. The site of often cited, especially with the political markets.


Huntsmann ignored Iowa, but the betting doesn't reflect polls as much as it reflects "perceived electability". After all, winning the election is what the market is for, so a heavy factor is people's perception of whether the person can win, and less so, where they are polling. Polling becomes more relevant later on.

in theory, but markets are usually very low which means easily manipulable.


Its not a good indicator. These gamblers have no clue who will vote for Paul in IA or NH , they just bet on the media blackout.

you not liking the results is not objective evidence that it is incorrect. There are a lot of things at play, but on bets with a large market intrade is quite good.


That may be partially the case, but at the same time, we can also become a bit disconnected from the reality of things at times.

Listen, this is still a big move, considering the widespread "unelectable" tag that still persists.

I agree. Some folks on this board live in a fantasy bubble where anarchists are legitimate VP possibilities.


you could say that, or you could say that as it was reported MB had 6000 tickets and Ron 4000, intrade bounced to MB. It happens we almost tied. But if it is low volume people can manipulate it.

There were a lot of reports going out that Bachmann was going to easily win and Intrade markets fell for it. The last couple hours of the day it was 80/20 toward Bachmann, but with only 152 votes separating the two it could have swung either way which would indicate to me those making bets on Intrade didn't have any sources on the ground, because what i was hearing from those on the ground was a Paul win. Granted they were wrong, but in the end, i knew it would be close.

[trey4sports]

he was actually trading @ 6% to be the nominee saturday FYI.

[trey4sports]

If you really don't think Intrade is pricing Ron's chances properly, then buy some shares!

its illegal to bet on political futures in the freedom loving USA

[ronpaulitician]

Making Intrade an example of how our laws are driving our money to overseas companies (=bad for US business) might make people start to connect the two. (Not that preserving that money for US citizens or residents is the driving motivation for removing these kind of laws). This may cause his numbers on Intrade to go up, which may cause his numbers to go up (as it can now be shown that the smart money is moving in Ron's direction).

It saddens me philosophically that a great country like this would not allow me to use a product/service like Intrade.

I expect that his numbers will go to 10% within two weeks. Sure wish I could drop some money on it.

[Fermli]

I agree. Some folks on this board live in a fantasy bubble where anarchists are legitimate VP possibilities.


Some live in a fantasy world where neocons are legitimate VP possibilities, when Ron Paul has said exactly the opposite.

[Esoteric]

with only 152 votes separating the two it could have swung either way which would indicate to me those making bets on Intrade didn't have any sources on the ground, because what i was hearing from those on the ground was a Paul win. Granted they were wrong, but in the end, i knew it would be close.

That's because if you were on the ground, like me, then you could see that Paul people DID outnumber the bachmann people. The problem is, the Bachmann People + the Randy Travis people outnumbered the Paul people. smh.

[sailingaway]

That's because if you were on the ground, like me, then you could see that Paul people DID outnumber the bachmann people. The problem is, the Bachmann People + the Randy Travis people outnumbered the Paul people. smh.

It's all good. Randy Travis won't be helping with GOTV for the actual caucuses.

[Jandrsn21]

Shorting Romney!

[Esoteric]

Shorting Romney!

Yeah, but he's got NH all but in the bag. I'd be shorting Perry if anything. I think he's peaking right now.

[skyorbit]

Do you honestly believe New Hampshire, the Live Free or die state, will support Mitt RomneyCare?

[anaconda]

EDIT: Disregard Intrade

pathetic. hunstman has more chances of winning the nomination? We should be atleast 15%-20% imo

If I were an unbiased observer I think I would give Ron around 15-20%. His numbers can only grow. The others are all vulnerable to tanking.

[anaconda]

Do you honestly believe New Hampshire, the Live Free or die state, will support Mitt RomneyCare?

They overwhelmingly supported John McCain. Need I say more? Plus they have election fraud up the ying yang:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKQEQ7qHvgM