My Analysis of NH and South Carolina

[TroySmith]

Romney desperately needs to win NH, just like Bachmann did with Iowa, to remain a top contender. He will dump his resources there and win the primary. Ron Paul will again take 2nd, a close 2nd, and Perry and Bachmann will take 3 and 4. Cain will take a couple more 5th place finishes and drop out.

The big state will then be South Carolina. Perry and Bachmann will split the evangelical vote, ron paul will take the economic/liberty voters and Romney will struggle. In a closely contested primary Paul will take 1st and Perry and Bachmann will virtually tie to 2nd. Romney must exit.

[Canderson]

thats somewhat wishful thinking, Ron doesn't due well in SC, we need a two state strategy though. I think focusing on Iowa and Nevada would be best, plus putting in resources in NH where its not a winner take all state and well potentially be on the way to the WH

[samuel]

I think focusing on Iowa and Nevada would be best
Nevadans tend to be liberty-minded (as far as I've seen), so I think Ron could have a really strong showing there.

[wstrucke]

Ron had a strong showing in Nevada four years ago and it was completely disregarded by the media. Let's get real here folks -- Ron has to do well everywhere. The campaign knows it and we all know it. The MSM will not give him his due if it comes in 3rd, 4th or worse. Close seconds and firsts are what we need to continue growing and competing. That means we all have to work hard, and most importantly not just spend all of our time in this circle jerk but get out on the street and talk to people and spread the message.

[musicmax]

South Carolina has three statewide GOP officeholders, two Tea Partiers (Gov. Haley, Sen. DeMint) and a RINO (Sen. Graham). Graham has said nice things about Romney, and he faced a tea-party primary challenger (SC GOP National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon) in 2008, so he won't endorse Ron. Haley is a wild-card - my guess is that she won't endorse anyone. DeMint is nearly a must-have. If DeMint endorses anyone else SC could be a disaster.

[MozoVote]

Ron should campaign in SC but realistically, downplay expectations. Military spending is a big part of SC's economy and his message doesn't play well there.

[Elwar]

Ron Paul can win New Hampshire.

[wstrucke]

Ron Paul can win New Hampshire.

The distance between "can" and "will" is likely quite a long way. We have to work harder, longer, and faster than we did four years ago. Double down and get things done in NH and everywhere else.

[bolidew]

Ron Paul will win Iowa.

[Pro-Life Libertarian]

There is potential for Haley and DeMint to endorse Ron.

That would not only help in SC, but in the entire country.

We need to get Barry Goldwater Jr. down in SC to campaign(His dad had a historic win in SC). Jack Hunter is a native too.