Rocco
08-14-2011, 12:25 AM
Strategically speaking, there are some candidates whom it helps us are in the race, and others who's presence takes votes away from us, and occupies supporters that could be ours.
So the people who very obviously wont be dropping out before the caucus are:
Paul
Bachmann
Romney
Perry
The guys who could potentially drop are:
TPaw: I think it'd hurt us if he drops out. The guy is establishment all the way and is in no way taking Paul supporters. Maybe we could shave 1% off him but I think his purpose is to divide the vote.
Cain: I think this is the guy we really need to drop out. We can channel some of his tea party energy and possibly pick up 2-3% of the 6% or so he has. That'd push us to 18-19% in Iowa.
Huntsman: The way I see it, he is disregarding Iowa so he will shake off a poor Iowa result in anticipation of NH. He is good for us, another neocon in the field.
Santorum: Nothing but good for us. Santorum's religious right base might be swayed a little bit by Paul's christian values, but I feel like the war hawk wing is more likely to embrace Santorum. I think he dilutes the field and is good to have in the race, especially in Iowa.
Gingrich: Strangely enough, Newt does seem to draw from us a little. The inclusion of newt has directly affected the results of a couple of past polls on our percentage. He is sounding more and more like us every day, perhaps if he stuck around a little while longer and then dropped out in october or so would be the best thing. We can take voters from him.
Johnson: He is polling around 1 percent, would be nice to pick it up and have him drop out. I hope he realizes Paul is surging and he's going nowhere.
Overall, I am very bullish on our Iowa chances. We should get a boost from today, and call me crazy but I think Bachmann will implode. It's astroturf, the lack of a legitimate support base at ames was very telling. The crowd for her speech was tiny, yeah she had a lot of votes but Randy Travis was the only reason for that. I think Perry will steal enough from her to make her uncompetitive, then that will hurt her perception enough that a LARGE chunk of her people go to Paul. She becomes a minor candidate like Cain, and Iowa comes down to Paul vs Romney vs Perry. If this happens, I really love our chances.
So the people who very obviously wont be dropping out before the caucus are:
Paul
Bachmann
Romney
Perry
The guys who could potentially drop are:
TPaw: I think it'd hurt us if he drops out. The guy is establishment all the way and is in no way taking Paul supporters. Maybe we could shave 1% off him but I think his purpose is to divide the vote.
Cain: I think this is the guy we really need to drop out. We can channel some of his tea party energy and possibly pick up 2-3% of the 6% or so he has. That'd push us to 18-19% in Iowa.
Huntsman: The way I see it, he is disregarding Iowa so he will shake off a poor Iowa result in anticipation of NH. He is good for us, another neocon in the field.
Santorum: Nothing but good for us. Santorum's religious right base might be swayed a little bit by Paul's christian values, but I feel like the war hawk wing is more likely to embrace Santorum. I think he dilutes the field and is good to have in the race, especially in Iowa.
Gingrich: Strangely enough, Newt does seem to draw from us a little. The inclusion of newt has directly affected the results of a couple of past polls on our percentage. He is sounding more and more like us every day, perhaps if he stuck around a little while longer and then dropped out in october or so would be the best thing. We can take voters from him.
Johnson: He is polling around 1 percent, would be nice to pick it up and have him drop out. I hope he realizes Paul is surging and he's going nowhere.
Overall, I am very bullish on our Iowa chances. We should get a boost from today, and call me crazy but I think Bachmann will implode. It's astroturf, the lack of a legitimate support base at ames was very telling. The crowd for her speech was tiny, yeah she had a lot of votes but Randy Travis was the only reason for that. I think Perry will steal enough from her to make her uncompetitive, then that will hurt her perception enough that a LARGE chunk of her people go to Paul. She becomes a minor candidate like Cain, and Iowa comes down to Paul vs Romney vs Perry. If this happens, I really love our chances.