Ron Paul effectively tied in 1st is better than leading with 1st

[harikaried]

If Ron Paul came in 1st, it would have been negatively spun because he has a strong following. However being effectively tied in 1st place -- the media will say Bachmann has a very strong effort and Dr. Paul benefits from that positive spin.

In fact as Chris Wallace pointed out on Fox, Ron Paul probably spent much less money than Bachmann for basically the same number of votes, showing that Ron Paul is better off than her.

And as we know from 2007, a 2nd place finish can lead to winning Iowa. And we're off to a great start by being even closer to 1st place than Huckabee was.

Ames Straw Poll 2011:
Bachmann 4,823 (28.6%)
Paul: 4,671 (27.7%)

Ames Straw Poll 2007:
Mitt Romney: 4,516 (31.6%)
Mike Huckabee: 2,587 (18.1%)

For those that agree with Ron Paul but didn't actively support him, this will still be a big win in their eyes, and they will now come out to help.

We can now show those on the fence that Ron Paul Can Win. We are grassroots, and we can make that happen. Ron Paul 2012!

[erowe1]

I like the way you think.

The choices they gave us before the results were: either Ron Paul wins and the results are invalid, or Ron Paul loses and the results are valid.

What we got was valid results by that logic, with RP still being essentially tied for first.

[FunkBuddha]

My thoughts exactly.

[Sola_Fide]

I like the way you think.

The choices they gave us before the results were: either Ron Paul wins and the results are invalid, or Ron Paul loses and the results are valid.

What we got was valid results by that logic, with RP still being essentially tied for first.


Bingo. That should be our talking point coming out of this.

[sailingaway]

Randy Travis won and he won't be at the caucuses. But I can't go QUITE so far as to say winning wouldn't be better SO LONG as it was close.

[RonPaulFever]

Agreed!

[JackieDan]

exactly what I thought about too. Good post!

[Aliangel]

Remember fellas IOWA is not a take all state which means we're gonna dillute the establishment vote and could take majority delegates. Strong establishment figures like bachmann romney and perry should stay in , that will help us.

[misconstrued]

Absolutely agree. This is a "win" for us.

[Slimdude20]

Considering she get the "hometown" bump and we were still only 152 votes behind this is perfect!

And we have the only Texan who didn't work for Al Gore.

Winning.

[trey4sports]

sorry, but it's not reality.

Iowa media will play up the winner regardless of what the national media does. This was our one chance to get a huge boost and while we came close, there will be an 80/20 spread of media attention toward Bachmann/Paul and second is not nearly as good as first, but it is what it is.

[trey4sports]

Remember fellas IOWA is not a take all state which means we're gonna dillute the establishment vote and could take majority delegates. Strong establishment figures like bachmann romney and perry should stay in , that will help us.

Bachmann is not perceived as establishment.

[dirtfarmerz]

Yeah!!! I am excited at the results Ron Paul received. I would much rather have him in second than outright first place. This way the MSM can't dismiss the results as irrelevant and the odds are in Ron Paul's favor to get the GOP nomination.
President George Bush Was the only president EVER to win the Iowa straw poll, the Iowa caucus, the the GOP nomination, right?

RON PAUL 2012!!!!!!!

[harikaried]

This was our one chance to get a huge boost and while we came close, there will be an 80/20 spread of media attention toward Bachmann/Paul and second is not nearly as good as first, but it is what it is.
I forgot my main point before hitting submit and edited it in:

For those that agree with Ron Paul but didn't actively support him, this will still be a big win in their eyes, and they will now come out to help.

There are many people on the fence because they claim that Ron Paul cannot win. They don't need to be convinced of Dr. Paul's positions. Their argument of him not winning is effectively thrown out the window with this 1st place tie.

I agree that the national media won't give Ron Paul as much attention as Bachmann, but who is to say that they would have if he came in first?

We need to let everyone know that Ron Paul Can Win! We are grassroots, and we can make that happen.

[Agorism]

No it's not.

[ProfNo]

sorry, but it's not reality.

Iowa media will play up the winner regardless of what the national media does. This was our one chance to get a huge boost and while we came close, there will be an 80/20 spread of media attention toward Bachmann/Paul and second is not nearly as good as first, but it is what it is.

I agree with you here. First is always better than second.

That being said, a close second is going to help. Huckabee got second and won Iowa.

[speciallyblend]

awesomeness, WIN WIN WIN all around, GREAT JOB IOWA,now lets kick some NH,SC,NV butt!!!

[Cleaner44]

Agreed! Winning!

[Feelgood]

Re-count?

[Slimdude20]

sorry, but it's not reality.

Iowa media will play up the winner regardless of what the national media does. This was our one chance to get a huge boost and while we came close, there will be an 80/20 spread of media attention toward Bachmann/Paul and second is not nearly as good as first, but it is what it is.

Who will they turn to when people wake to the fact that Bahmann worked for the iRS, supported the patriot act, has a nagging voice (whoops thats one of my opinions), or if/when she makes more ridiculous statements/ collapses from migraines? I personally think we are in a very good position. As nice as a win would have been. this way Dr. Paul cannot be discredited.

[sailingaway]

Considering she get the "hometown" bump and we were still only 152 votes behind this is perfect!

And we have the only Texan who didn't work for Al Gore.

Winning.

lol at the hometown bump! Politico tweeted during her speech that all that over the top 'I'm from Iowa' stuff would make a perfect commercial for a challenger to run in her next congressional election.

[libertybrewcity]

I think anything Ron Paul does is going to be spun like crazy. There is no way around it. A win would have been nice. It would have given us some energy, but I think we can still definitely win the Iowa Caucus.

People that don't live in Iowa must call people that live there and spread the word. If we can get this many votes, then we can definitely activate supporters to win the Iowa Caucuses in FIVE MONTHS from now.

[TRIGRHAPPY]

A few things to keep in mind:

Ron Paul not only beat Romney's 2007 total, but actually got the 4th highest votes.....for anyone, EVER.

So lets just keep that in perspective.

[Aliangel]

We don't have to win the cuacus, we just need to get a decent number of delegates in IA!!

[Slimdude20]

lol at the hometown bump! Politico tweeted during her speech that all that over the top 'I'm from Iowa' stuff would make a perfect commercial for a challenger to run in her next congressional election.

Wait. Did she say she was from Iowa? She should have mentioned it more.... I dont know where she would have fit it in her speech though with all that valuable information on how she planned on running the country if she won. really interesting her views on the war(s), monetary policy, job creation, etc.

Oh wait. She didnt mention that stuff at all.

In fact Ron Paul IS saying what he would do to get us back on track. People want solutions.

[trey4sports]

We don't have to win the cuacus, we just need to get a decent number of delegates in IA!!

no, we need to win. Everyone already thinks we're a fringe campaign. Unless we get a first place showing early on, we simply aren't going to gain the momentum we need.

[hueylong]

This is a decent bit of analysis. A big RP win would have been dismissed as another 'Ron Paul Straw Poll Win"... This way, we are definitely in the mix. Plus, it keeps Bachmann strong enough to split the votes of Romney and Denethor Perry.

[Airborn]

I think almost winning this will be the gasoline for our fire. 2007 was the spark and the fire has been burning ever since.

[libertybrewcity]

We don't have to win the cuacus, we just need to get a decent number of delegates in IA!!


We WILL win the caucus and many more states after that.

[pauliticalfan]

Amazing result.

Bachmann was supposed to have won in a landslide with 6k+ votes. Instead, she barely wins and will still be attacked.

Ron Paul is now a top tier candidate.

[pauliticalfan]

Another thought: this result creates complacency for Bachmann supporters come caucus time. This will light a fire under our ass come caucus time to not want to repeat a close 2nd place finish.

[bunklocoempire]

lol at the hometown bump! Politico tweeted during her speech that all that over the top 'I'm from Iowa' stuff would make a perfect commercial for a challenger to run in her next congressional election.

And this race.

Bachman: I'm from Iowa

American1: I'm from Hawaii

Bachman: I'm from Iowa

American2: I'm from Oregon

Bachman: I'm from Iowa

American3: I'm from Texas

Bachman: I'm from Iowa

American4 (perturbed): I'M from Iowa

Bachman: I'm from Iowa

American5 (resolved): I'm from Minnesota *click* (turns off MB) fade to "Ron Paul for individual liberty, and America"

-run it in MN, play up the MN vs Iowa rivalry.:)

Yeah, it's rough -maybe someone can run with it.


Bunkloco

[Jingles]

Who the hell is Randy Travis and why is everyone complaining about him!?

[dusman]

Let's also keep in mind most of us here were perhaps more confident in a 1st place finish, because of all the activity that was going on. However, we are probably a minority of the Ron Paul support.. so to a lot of our support who hasn't gotten active yet, they are going to be quite surprised by a 2nd place finish. This will awaken a part of our base that wasn't really on-board again yet. Most of them have no idea what we've been doing in Iowa. Come around this next time, we'll have twice the activity with this stuff.

This keeps us under the radar and crucial to us. There is no opportunity now for the MSM to downplay anything. There is perceived dirt on Ron Paul that would have been slung all over the place if he won. They'll do that to Bachmann now.

1st place would have resulted in nothing but negativity, but now they are forced to give our placement a positive spin, because of how close it was. Ultimately, this shift in the dynamic of the "mood", perception is extremely important and it's kind of odd to think 1st place wouldn't be better for us.. I can't help, but think it just might be. But, the positive spin will have surprising influence among the voting base, as up to this point everything they have been exposed to has been mostly negative for Paul, with exception to perhaps Freedom Watch.

Going into this with 10-16% support nationally, let's see what the poll numbers say afterwards. I think non-supporters will be more impressed than we are on this board. We aren't so bad to set high expectations! When we don't meet the mark.. I don't know about you all, but it puts some more fire under my ass.

Edit: Also wanted to add that it might be that Michele Bachmann is an ally to us right now. By that I mean look at this result. Over 50% of the voters today, voted for a Constitutionally-Conservative position. This is a really important shift, because it might establish the theme of the 2012 election. If that is the case, I don't believe Michele Bachmann is a strong candidate, but she will certainly help us make the message popular. The only shift we need to make in her support is their understanding of the Patriot Act and why that is bad.

[harikaried]

Who the hell is Randy Travis and why is everyone complaining about him!?
He's a Grammy Award winning country singer where people had to vote first before being allowed to attend his performance in the Bachmann tent.

[New York For Paul]

I forgot my main point before hitting submit and edited it in:

For those that agree with Ron Paul but didn't actively support him, this will still be a big win in their eyes, and they will now come out to help.

There are many people on the fence because they claim that Ron Paul cannot win. They don't need to be convinced of Dr. Paul's positions. Their argument of him not winning is effectively thrown out the window with this 1st place tie.

I agree that the national media won't give Ron Paul as much attention as Bachmann, but who is to say that they would have if he came in first?

We need to let everyone know that Ron Paul Can Win! We are grassroots, and we can make that happen.

Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. We need a win to prove that Ron Paul can win. MB just got huge boost.

[New York For Paul]

He's a Grammy Award winning country singer where people had to vote first before being allowed to attend his performance in the Bachmann tent.

Ron Paul had Sara Evans sing at his event in minnesota. Maybe the campaign should have done that again.

[rich34]

Hank Jr would have been better than gold!!

[gyrmnix]

Yeah!!! I am excited at the results Ron Paul received. I would much rather have him in second than outright first place. This way the MSM can't dismiss the results as irrelevant and the odds are in Ron Paul's favor to get the GOP nomination.
President George Bush Was the only president EVER to win the Iowa straw poll, the Iowa caucus, the the GOP nomination, right?

RON PAUL 2012!!!!!!!

1979: Bush won the straw poll, and Iowa. Reagan won the nomination and presidency.
1987: Robertson won the poll. Dole won the Caucus. Bush won the nomination and presidency.
1995: Dole and Gramm tied in the poll. Dole won Iowa and the nomination.
1999: Bush won the poll, Iowa, the nomination and the presidency.
2007: Romney won the poll. Huckabee won the caucus. McCain won the nomination.

Ames only predicted the caucus winner 3 times (if you count '95) and the nomination 1 time.

[angelatc]

Bachmann is not perceived as establishment.

But Perry and Romney are going to view her as the one to beat. Those three are going to beat the living hell out of each other, while we pretty much will be stuck dealing with the media.

[willwash]

Bachmann's win tonight is like Apollo Creed's "win" in Rocky 1. Everyone expected her to crush...and yet, Ron Paul came out of nowhere (in the MSM's eyes) and nearly took the whole thing, leaving the rest of the establishment a little uneasy.

And remember the mileage Huckleberry won in 2007 when he did the same thing in a similar situation. Everyone "knew" ROmney was going to take it that year just like everyone "knew" Bachmann would win today...and yet the margins tonight were MUCH slimmer.

Sure, the win would have been great, but Ron's own stated goal was top 3. He could have made top 3 with less than half the votes he actually got. So he smashed his own goal for this straw poll.

[MelissaCato]

He's a Grammy Award winning country singer where people had to vote first before being allowed to attend his performance in the Bachmann tent.

Ya and 30.00 is cheap to be under his tent. Bachmann being a native of Iowa and the 30.00 vote to see Randy Travis was huge. For Ron Paul to get second by only 152 votes from first place .. is also a HUGE. If you care to know what I think.

Ron Paul 2012 !!

[PineGroveDave]

This is indeed a win and it gives me hope. After hearing the news and the numbers I told my wife that this is actually better for Dr. Paul than an outright win. Had he won, the media would've dismissed the entire Straw Poll as unnecessary, non-binding, unimportant. With a Bachmann win, and everyone knows how narrow the win, the media will not discount the Poll and the media cannot dismiss RP as he came in so very close. To dismiss RP would be to dismiss Bachmann...and the media isn't ready to feed on her carcass yet...not until Perry picks up steam.

This bodes well for the campaign.

[Restore-America-NOW]

Bachmann LITERALLY bought her victory tonight, and that victory will be short lived.

[KingRobbStark]

All we do is win, even when we're losing.

[parocks]

This is indeed a win and it gives me hope. After hearing the news and the numbers I told my wife that this is actually better for Dr. Paul than an outright win. Had he won, the media would've dismissed the entire Straw Poll as unnecessary, non-binding, unimportant. With a Bachmann win, and everyone knows how narrow the win, the media will not discount the Poll and the media cannot dismiss RP as he came in so very close. To dismiss RP would be to dismiss Bachmann...and the media isn't ready to feed on her carcass yet...not until Perry picks up steam.

This bodes well for the campaign.

Yes, this is good. The story I see is 2 Tea Party candidates way out front of the Establishment RINOs. Bachmann likely has Tea Party support and Socon support. We are likely to get Bachmann's tea party supporters if the voters take a quick look at her resume. Bachmann's supporters, Cain's supporters are the supporters we're to try to get. In Iowa, that's 2/3ds. Iowa looks pretty good. If we lost to TPaw and Romney was in 3rd, the "tea party" percentage would be a lot lower.

[harikaried]

We are likely to get Bachmann's tea party supporters if the voters take a quick look at her resume.
The main differentiation are issues related to Patriot Act and wars.

[radiofriendly]

Perfect analysis. Share it, so the newbies don't get down!

[smartguy911]

Agree 100%

[White Bear Lake]

lol at the hometown bump! Politico tweeted during her speech that all that over the top 'I'm from Iowa' stuff would make a perfect commercial for a challenger to run in her next congressional election.

I don't think she's running for re-election. And if she does, she'll have an uphill climb because it looks like her district is about to get sliced up by the courts in redistricting.

[anaconda]

I like the way you think.

The choices they gave us before the results were: either Ron Paul wins and the results are invalid, or Ron Paul loses and the results are valid.

What we got was valid results by that logic, with RP still being essentially tied for first.

Yes. Getting second by a hair gives Ron way more positive spin from the press than if he had won.

[anaconda]

The main differentiation are issues related to Patriot Act and wars.

Also, she hasn't the stomach to take on the Federal Reserve.

[parocks]

The main differentiation are issues related to Patriot Act and wars.

Are you saying that you think that Bachmann's supporters won't vote for Ron Paul because of the Patriot Act?
It's definitely possible that we won't get some of her supporters because of wars. But, she's tea party, Ron Paul is tea party,
so we could expect a Bachmann vote would go to Paul. Some Bachmann supporters are more socon law and order conservatives, Huckabee types, who might go to Perry.

[Mr Tansill]

Bachmann's win tonight is like Apollo Creed's "win" in Rocky 1. Everyone expected her to crush...and yet, Ron Paul came out of nowhere (in the MSM's eyes) and nearly took the whole thing, leaving the rest of the establishment a little uneasy.

And remember the mileage Huckleberry won in 2007 when he did the same thing in a similar situation. Everyone "knew" ROmney was going to take it that year just like everyone "knew" Bachmann would win today...and yet the margins tonight were MUCH slimmer.

Sure, the win would have been great, but Ron's own stated goal was top 3. He could have made top 3 with less than half the votes he actually got. So he smashed his own goal for this straw poll.

^^^^^ THIS. The only thing that could have been better is if MB had only edged him out by 1 vote!

[harikaried]

Are you saying that you think that Bachmann's supporters won't vote for Ron Paul because of the Patriot Act?
No, I'm just pointing out that's one way to convince Bachmann's supporters. If Bachmann's supporters don't want to be spied on by the government but like pretty much everything else she has to say, Ron Paul is their person.

[pacelli]

Lets be polite to the Bachman folks, when she drops out, based on her positive comments about Ron, I'm sure her supporters will be looking at RP. And I welcome them to the forum in advance.

[ValidusCustodiae]

This is a decent bit of analysis. A big RP win would have been dismissed as another 'Ron Paul Straw Poll Win"... This way, we are definitely in the mix. Plus, it keeps Bachmann strong enough to split the votes of Romney and Denethor Perry.

McCain is a troll because he hates Hobbits, Perry is Denethor, gotta love the LOTR references!

[Dianne]

GOP already running scared. Top story on Huff Post this morning is Dowd, former Bush advisor, says there is no way Paul will win, so just count him out. He is a pro drug and apologize to Iran candidate, so not to be taken seriously...lol.

I'm encouraged more by the large scale attacks on Paul by the GOP establishment. With Limbaugh, Beck and now Bush advisors going after him; they must be worried.

[parocks]

No, I'm just pointing out that's one way to convince Bachmann's supporters. If Bachmann's supporters don't want to be spied on by the government but like pretty much everything else she has to say, Ron Paul is their person.

I think Bachmann just doesn't make it. If a Bachmann supporter does like the Patriot Act, and Bachmann falls out of the race for any number of reasons, we don't necessarily want to have reminded the Bachmann supporter that Ron Paul disagrees with them. Right now, it's almost better for us to say "we like Bachmann". It's a calculated risk. We assume that 1) she'll fall apart by herself. The media might really closely examine her record. SNL is still on hiatus. 2) Somebody else might try to take her down. Romney, Perry, Pawlenty attacked her at the debate.

It's better to tell Bachmann supporters how similar Bachmann and Paul are, not where they differ.

[BUSHLIED]

Let's just hope that Cain and Santorum go back to the rocks they crawl out from under...Gingrich too.

You'll have Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann, and Pawlenty....Pawlenty i don't think will make it to the primaries if he doesn't boost in the polls...he may try to stick in there until IA...

[dusman]

I think Bachmann just doesn't make it. If a Bachmann supporter does like the Patriot Act, and Bachmann falls out of the race for any number of reasons, we don't necessarily want to have reminded the Bachmann supporter that Ron Paul disagrees with them. Right now, it's almost better for us to say "we like Bachmann". It's a calculated risk. We assume that 1) she'll fall apart by herself. The media might really closely examine her record. SNL is still on hiatus. 2) Somebody else might try to take her down. Romney, Perry, Pawlenty attacked her at the debate.

It's better to tell Bachmann supporters how similar Bachmann and Paul are, not where they differ.

^This.. observing the present situation.. we need to stay very close to Bachmann at this point. It's important to moreso show that the "Tea Party" is taking over, with Bachmann and Paul operating kind of as allies. Tea party vs. Establishment. Bachmann, will simply start to crack at the base.. as there is no strong foundation for her. If we make this transition smoothly, we can make it very natural for Bachmann's support to convert over.

[djruden]

Most people I talked to at the thursday night debate and the straw poll on saturday that weren't voting for Paul were merely republicans thru and thru. If Paul got the nomination most of them would vote for him anyway because they will vote for anyone over President Obama. Pauls supporters, like me, are very different. We see more of the same with the rest of the candidates. Romney and Perry offer no real change. The republican party needs to nominate Paul to grow the party and ensure they get his large number of followers to vote republican.

This is going to be a very interesting race.

[harikaried]

The republican party needs to nominate Paul to grow the party and ensure they get his large number of followers to vote republican.
Indeed. The large number of independent voters like what they hear from Ron Paul, and they're unlikely to switch over to pro-war republicans. We just need to get them actively supporting Ron Paul.

[rich34]

Ron needs to start picking fights with Perry, and Romney over intellectual positions that they differ on. I'm tired of watching debates where he only gets questions on what they know hurts him to the average republican voter. The media loves a fight and I say Paul should go on the attack and start poking holes in all their positions. Paul can't be complacent and just hope the conservative media will start covering him honestly.

[BUSHLIED]

Ron needs to start picking fights with Perry, and Romney over intellectual positions that they differ on. I'm tired of watching debates where he only gets questions on what they know hurts him to the average republican voter. The media loves a fight and I say Paul should go on the attack and start poking holes in all their positions. Paul can't be complacent and just hope the conservative media will start covering him honestly.

Ron has to show more strength, rather than being a punching bag where he has to counter-attack and risk looking angry etc...while he tends to answer the questions well, his tone changes visibly. He starts out good by saying for example the Senator has his history wrong or what John just said was distorted...then goes into a history lesson...

[hueylong]

Ron needs to keep doing what he's doing. And the campaign needs to keep doing what they're doing. Hopefully, at some point, they'll start telling his personal story so voters can start thinking of him as a man and a leader, and not just a 'libertarian ideologue'. His personal story is so powerful -- we shouldn't shy away from it.

[harikaried]

Hopefully, at some point, they'll start telling his personal story so voters can start thinking of him as a man and a leader, and not just a 'libertarian ideologue'
Indeed. One common concern I find people having is the general libertarian positions and free markets, but how much power would a President Paul have on those issues? The thing for sure is that a commander-in-chief Ron Paul would indeed have the final say in troop deployments. Most other things, you know that he'll vote against bills such as those that create/extend the Patriot Act.

[trey4sports]

Indeed. One common concern I find people having is the general libertarian positions and free markets, but how much power would a President Paul have on those issues? The thing for sure is that a commander-in-chief Ron Paul would indeed have the final say in troop deployments. Most other things, you know that he'll vote againstveto bills such as those that create/extend the Patriot Act.


fixed it

[mport1]

If Ron Paul came in first he would have been ignored and the media would have discredited the poll and/or focused on Michele. Coming in 2nd also leads him to be almost completely marginalized.