Politico: Ron Paul win would help Perry and Romney

[Epic]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61290.html

Ron Paul loses ---> bad for Ron Paul
Ron Paul wins ----> good for Rick Perry, Mitt Romney

evokes:

Tails: you lose
Heads: I win

Oh, and this gem:


Paul isn't actually a member of the evangelical wing of the party, which has an outsized role in the process.

[moderate libertarian]

Some MSM segments in last few days are raising expectations for Ron Paul win in ASP and at the same time downplaying importance of this poll like the article in the TIME did. If Ron Paul has a strong showing in Iowa today, look for a slew of MSM articles downplaying importance of poll results.

While ASP is not 100% predictor of GOP nomination, in the current election season it is more important than other elections. Ron Paul has often had hard time winning traditional GOP conservative base like the one represented by demographic in Iowa but has stronger braoder national appeal across party lines and among indies. If Ron Paul has a strong showing in Iowa today (comes in top 2 positions), he will improve his chances of winning GOP nomination significantly. Even if he is among top 3, that result will confirm his rising momentum among GOP base and place him as a first tier candidate for the WH. Although Obama has become increasingly radioactive lately, many of the current GOP contestants fail to separate themselves from the very policies that plague Obama. More and more people are realizing that Ron Paul will be the strongest GOP candidate with best chance to defeat Obama. Let's see if GOP is reday to win in 2012.

[sailingaway]

I commented.

[acptulsa]

He's not part of the 'evangelical wing', who they said was the only reason Huckabee won Iowa four years ago. Inconsistent much?

Yeah, great. Those two high-dollar haircut clowns are going to need all the help they can get. Glad we could be of service.

[boneyard bill]

Winning the straw poll will give Ron Paul a boost, but how much? The real question will be how well Paul shows up in the polls after the ASP. Look at how much of a boost Bachmann got after being anointed second place in the New Hampshire debate. The media spin will be very important here. No doubt much of the media will downplay Paul's victory as just another straw poll win which his supporters have always been good at. But not all of them will. Ames is much bigger than other straw polls, and it has predictive power regarding the Iowa Caucuses. The top two at Ames will be contenders to win the caucuses while the ability of Romney and Perry will be in question since they didn't participate in the straw poll.

It seems likely that Perry will try to win the caucuses, and a Ron Paul victory could make it easier for him to attract evangelicals who were previous attracted to Bachmann, but a second place wouldn't necessarily eliminate Bachamann and that would leave the evangelical vote split. That, in turn, might prompt Romney to compete actively. However, he would then also have to go up against Ron Paul who has strong appeal among non-evangelicals. So that vote would be split too.

It seems likely that Paul and Bachmann are going to be the top two, and that will complicate the race no matter what. I agree that Perry is likely rooting or Paul to win because he wants to see Bachmann weakened, but I can't see Romney liking the idea at all. He can't want Paul to win the caucuses because is potentially a very big threat in New Hampshire where libertarianism is strong and independents can vote in the primary.