Optimistic but worried

[Canderson]

So recent polling has given me the opinion we may glide to victory in Iowa depending on what happens tonight and at Ames, but what then? I've put up a list of the first four elections and the number of delegates those states will send to the convention:

Iowa 31
New Hampshire 23
Nevada 25
South Carolina 47

Now the way we are going we can win Iowa, but how do we prevent a Huckabee style loss after that initial win? Romney's so called 'Bob Dole Strategy' is to take NH and Nevada for a lead in the first four states. South Carolina is likely to go to Perry. That would make the delegate count 31 for Paul 47 for Perry and 48 for Mitt, effectively putting us at 3rd in a 2 man race.

The point of this post is that even with the great work the campaign and grassroots have been doing in Iowa, we can win there and still lose hard. We need to take either Nevada or New Hampshire to propel ourselves to the top spot, but as a New England Mormon (howd that even happen???) Romney has a significant advantage in both those states. Which do you feel is a better state to concentrate our efforts? I think Nevada, Ron will be in Reno in Sept for LPAC and from what I've read our grassroots' ground game and organization there is second to none.

[LibertyEsq]

We haven't seen any polling in NH recently, none after Paul's recent surge, and after Ames I think Paul will be VERY competitive with Romney in NH. Paul also put up around 10% in Nevada before the recent national surge. I think we have a real shot at both NV and NH, but if I HAD to choose one (which I don't, I predict our fundraising will explode after Ames) I would choose New Hampshire. If we won that, Romney would have some explaining to do with the national media.

[sailingaway]

So recent polling has given me the opinion we may glide to victory in Iowa depending on what happens tonight and at Ames, but what then? I've put up a list of the first four elections and the number of delegates those states will send to the convention:

Iowa 31
New Hampshire 23
Nevada 25
South Carolina 47

Now the way we are going we can win Iowa, but how do we prevent a Huckabee style loss after that initial win? Romney's so called 'Bob Dole Strategy' is to take NH and Nevada for a lead in the first four states. South Carolina is likely to go to Perry. That would make the delegate count 31 for Paul 47 for Perry and 48 for Mitt, effectively putting us at 3rd in a 2 man race.

The point of this post is that even with the great work the campaign and grassroots have been doing in Iowa, we can win there and still lose hard. We need to take either Nevada or New Hampshire to propel ourselves to the top spot, but as a New England Mormon (howd that even happen???) Romney has a significant advantage in both those states. Which do you feel is a better state to concentrate our efforts? I think Nevada, Ron will be in Reno in Sept for LPAC and from what I've read our grassroots' ground game and organization there is second to none.

glide to victory in Iowa? I'm pretty certain Ron Paul will have a huge fight to win, and will be hit with both barrels as soon as his head rises above the pack. But I think we have a solid chance to win, in multiple states. If we do well in New Hampshire and win Iowa, even if we lose South Carolina that won't be as huge a hit because Perry is NOT going to win NH, and if we win Iowa he hasn't won that either. We could well be in a situation where three different candidates have won the first three primaries, going into Nevada. Nevada is going to be more of a fight than some of us think, but like Iowa, it IS doable.

[sailingaway]

We haven't seen any polling in NH recently, none after Paul's recent surge, and after Ames I think Paul will be VERY competitive with Romney in NH. Paul also put up around 10% in Nevada before the recent national surge. I think we have a real shot at both NV and NH, but if I HAD to choose one (which I don't, I predict our fundraising will explode after Ames) I would choose New Hampshire. If we won that, Romney would have some explaining to do with the national media.

I don't know if Ron will or won't be competitive with Romney, part of that has to do with who is included in the poll. Romney's numbers drop when Guliani, but Ron's do slightly as well (I never can figure that one....) but I don't know how much traction Perry would get in New Hampshire. And I don't know if it would come out of Bachmann's hide or Romney's, or both. But I doubt any of it will come from RON's numbers, unless people are temporarily confused, and we are happy to help them out of that state.

[davidhperry]

glide to victory in Iowa? I'm pretty certain Ron Paul will have a huge fight to win, and will be hit with both barrels as soon as his head rises above the pack. But I think we have a solid chance to win, in multiple states. If we do well in New Hampshire and win Iowa, even if we lose South Carolina that won't be as huge a hit because Perry is NOT going to win NH, and if we win Iowa he hasn't won that either. We could well be in a situation where three different candidates have won the first three primaries, going into Nevada. Nevada is going to be more of a fight than some of us think, but like Iowa, it IS doable.

I agree totally with this. RP is getting some traction, but he's going to come under some major heat from the MSM and other candidates if he has a good show in Ames. IMHO, the establishment is annoyed by RP's progress, but they haven't opened up both barrels on him yet, since they still don't see him as an ultimate threat.

On the positive side, if we do well at the straw poll, we're going to raise a lot of money very quickly, and we'll get another big bump in support, so that will serve as a counterbalance to the attacks that come.

[trey4sports]

generally voters choose whoever has the momentum early on. If paul wins the first state, that will have a major impact for subsequent primaries/caucuses. If we win Iowa I would guess Ron either becomes the front-runner or a very strong #2 nationally.

[trey4sports]

I agree totally with this. RP is getting some traction, but he's going to come under some major heat from the MSM and other candidates if he has a good show in Ames. IMHO, the establishment is annoyed by RP's progress, but they haven't opened up both barrels on him yet, since they still don't see him as an ultimate threat.

On the positive side, if we do well at the straw poll, we're going to raise a lot of money very quickly, and we'll get another big bump in support, so that will serve as a counterbalance to the attacks that come.



Yeah, there is going to be a major SHITSTORM of negative heat if Paul wins the straw poll. The big question will be, how will the conservative media portray Ron? I know that when MSNBC and CNN attacks him it will only help us with conservatives, however, if FNC turns on us we could have some serious issues gaining conservative support.

[Canderson]

Alright 'glide' was the wrong term, semantics, but my concern is that if we win Iowa and lose NH and Nevada (I dont think theres much hope for SC) Rons going to fizzle. We have to take Nevada or New Hampshire, and a win in Iowa won't help us too much in doing that. Exhibit A being Huckabee in 08

[sailingaway]

Yeah, there is going to be a major SHITSTORM of negative heat if Paul wins the straw poll. The big question will be, how will the conservative media portray Ron? I know that when MSNBC and CNN attacks him it will only help us with conservatives, however, if FNC turns on us we could have some serious issues gaining conservative support.

If they're smart they'll give him the straw poll and just say the field has since changed with Perry and Romney wasn't in it.... which is how they have been setting it up. If they downplay it after giving the contest so much ink a lot of people will wonder why.

[Shane Harris]

new hampshire is different than iowa. i felt going in we would have more traction in NH since it leans more libertarian/moderate compared to iowa's social conservative evangelical/neocon leaning. im very impressed with our numbers in iowa. my friend is in NH right now and told me they are reppin ron paul all up and down, which isnt scientific but made me feel good. the free state project has to help somewhat right?

[mhad]

I say let NH go, it is a wasted of time after the last elections cycle. We put so much work into that state and the McCain win was such an embarrassment for the "Live Free or Die State" Nevada has proven to be a strong point for RP and he could easily take that state, the locals on the ground are very organized. My two cents, and I think that is why RP already put ads on the air in NV.

[NickOdell]

Yeah, there is going to be a major SHITSTORM of negative heat if Paul wins the straw poll. The big question will be, how will the conservative media portray Ron? I know that when MSNBC and CNN attacks him it will only help us with conservatives, however, if FNC turns on us we could have some serious issues gaining conservative support.

We do have the Judge and Stossel on Fox Business, at least.

[LibertyEsq]

I say let NH go, it is a wasted of time after the last elections cycle. We put so much work into that state and the McCain win was such an embarrassment for the "Live Free or Die State" Nevada has proven to be a strong point for RP and he could easily take that state, the locals on the ground are very organized. My two cents, and I think that is why RP already put ads on the air in NV.

We definitely should not "let NH go". It should be a very good state for us, 2012 is not 2008.

I for one will be doing everything in my power to get votes for Ron in NJ, we shouldn't "let go" of any state, especially the ones which Ron should in theory do best in

[Unelected]

Iowa isn't a winner take all state. Ron Paul can't get 31 delegates unless he gets 100% of the vote there. Nevada isn't a winner take all state either and neither is NH.

[specsaregood]

..

[libertybrewcity]

So recent polling has given me the opinion we may glide to victory in Iowa depending on what happens tonight and at Ames, but what then? I've put up a list of the first four elections and the number of delegates those states will send to the convention:

Iowa 31
New Hampshire 23
Nevada 25
South Carolina 47

Now the way we are going we can win Iowa, but how do we prevent a Huckabee style loss after that initial win? Romney's so called 'Bob Dole Strategy' is to take NH and Nevada for a lead in the first four states. South Carolina is likely to go to Perry. That would make the delegate count 31 for Paul 47 for Perry and 48 for Mitt, effectively putting us at 3rd in a 2 man race.

The point of this post is that even with the great work the campaign and grassroots have been doing in Iowa, we can win there and still lose hard. We need to take either Nevada or New Hampshire to propel ourselves to the top spot, but as a New England Mormon (howd that even happen???) Romney has a significant advantage in both those states. Which do you feel is a better state to concentrate our efforts? I think Nevada, Ron will be in Reno in Sept for LPAC and from what I've read our grassroots' ground game and organization there is second to none.

If I am not mistaken most the early states have some sort of proportional delegate system. I think Iowa and Nevada are winnable. Caucus states are HUGE opportunities for us to win delegates and states. We may not have the numbers of drone-voters that some of the other candidates have, but we can show up in winnable numbers for caucuses. Winning Iowa would give us a boost in NH which will likely be the following week. I think you need 10% in NH to receive any delegates. We can easily achieve at least 10%. I don't think 20 or 25% are too far to reach.

The field will be thinned by the time the primaries start. Some may switch to Romney or Bach, but the undecided voters are perfectly good opportunities to win over voters. If we can pull of a good showing in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada will be within reach. The other states will come. Super Tuesday will be HUGE as well as some of the early big states like Florida.