New CNN poll national - Ron in third place, again

[Agorism]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/11/new-cnn-poll-perry-near-top-of-pack-in-gop-nomination-battle/


Good numbers

[jabf2006]

Funny, the article never mentions that Paul is the only one to make a significant gain since the previous poll.

[rp08orbust]

Funny, the article never mentions that Paul is the only one to make a significant gain since the previous poll.

Check out Huntsman.

[LibertyPhanatic]

Strange crosstabs. Of the 1,000 respondents, none were under the age of 50? And everybody polled was in the 'South'? Not overly representative of the overall electorate...

[LibertyEsq]

It's kinda hilarious that they are polling a hypothetical Bachmann/Obama general and not polling Paul/Obama considering Paul has SURGED past Bachmann.

Although to be fair they probably didn't know Paul would be so far ahead of Bachmann prior to taking the poll

[rockandrollsouls]

Not bad, could be better

[No Free Beer]

*amazing*

[Indiana4Paul]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/11/new-cnn-poll-perry-near-top-of-pack-in-gop-nomination-battle/


Good numbers

Great numbers IMHO. Paul's numbers held up well w/ and w/out Palin and Giuliani in the mix. His 12% held up amongst Tea Party supporters and Tea Party neutral Republicans.

[sailingaway]

If the choices are pared down to exclude Giuliani and Palin, Romney remains at the top of the list, with 23 percent, followed by Perry at 18 percent and Paul at 14 percent. The survey indicates Bachmann at nine percent, Gingrich one point back, Cain and Huntsman at five percent, Pawlenty and Santorum at three percent and Johnson and McCotter both registering at less than one half of one percent.

Guiliani is now scrambling to find staffers in NH, to at least PRETEND he will enter the race. This allows pollsters and the media to keep him in their polls and dilutes the buzz and numbers of other, actual candidates. An article I read yesterday groused that Pawlenty hadn't had 'a chance' to shine because a 'new candidate' entered the race every month, ruining his 'buzz'. Couldn't care less about its impact on Pawlenty, but that is how I feel about its impact on Ron.

Paul is polling well, so Guiliani is running around NH and Palin is busing to Iowa..... at least it FEELS like cause and effect.

Here is the pdf of the poll results. The way CNN chooses to write them up is somewhat aggravating, given who is, and is not, in the race. Don't you think they'd at least START with those in the race- maybe adding Perry who has made it clear he WILL be in the race?

[RonPaul101.com]

If this is true, its exactly what I want to see continue; Paul up, Cain and Bachmann sliding. Seemingly, Cain and Bachmann Tea Partiers are slowly realizing that "their" best candidate is the one with the most proven, honest record, the one with the largest grassroots, and the one with thebest fundraising.

Tea Partiers, come home to papa !!!

Also, its an insult that they do a head-to-head matchup with Obama for Romney, Perry, Palin and Giuliani and not for Ron Paul. :mad: He IS running for president unlike Palin and Giuls, and even if both of them ran, he'd still be tied for 3rd. :mad::mad:

[Pistis]

Bachmann is finished!!

She does the worst here, check out the plummet in her numbers from the last poll in a space of just three weeks dropping five percentage points from 12% to 7% (with Giuliani and Palin) and from 14% to 9% (without Giuliani and Palin).

Meltdown?

:eek:

[eduardo89]

Anyone else notice how they don't show the 18-34 age range in the results? I bet RP does the best on that.

[PaulConventionWV]

Imagine these numbers if under 50 was at all represented....guys this is huge.

Exactly what I was thinking. I hope this is for real. That means we are already knocking on 20%'s door.

[Zarn Solen]

I noticed Paul was 9% with GOP whites but 12% GOP total (with the 'potentials' included). They refused to give non-white stats. No one else has any real separation. Interesting. Unfortunately, the numbers polled for this is real low (449 GOP).

[trey4sports]

Exactly what I was thinking. I hope this is for real. That means we are already knocking on 20%'s door.

18-34 is SUCH a small voting block though.

[sailingaway]

Strange crosstabs. Of the 1,000 respondents, none were under the age of 50? And everybody polled was in the 'South'? Not overly representative of the overall electorate...

Really? I hadn't gotten that far. So Ron got third place above Bachmann, always double digits, WITHOUT polling younger folks or the west? WOW!!

Sorry for shouting, that just makes me happy....:p

[eduardo89]

18-34 is SUCH a small voting block though.

But 18-45 isn't and that's where RP does well.

That said, we NEED to get seniors on board. You need the 65+ vote to win.

[Billay]

Looks like Bachmans numbers are shrinking while Paul's are growing. We're winning over her supporters! Guys we need to be polite about Bachmann & Cain when they both drop out we benefit the most.

[sailingaway]

But 18-45 isn't and that's where RP does well.

That said, we NEED to get seniors on board. You need the 65+ vote to win.

Ron needs to help by making his senior entitlements plan PLAIN every time he is asked. People are REALLY focused on social security and medicare at that age because they already did all of the paying in, and planned based on that. They don't know he means prioritize senior entitlements people paid in for, while cutting spending overseas and cutting unConstitutional departments. When he just says 'cut unconstitutional programs' they think he puts SS and Medicare up there with the Department of education for immediate eradication, and he just wants to fund it as best it can be from other sources and let the kids opt out. Yes, it would 'end social security' but it would be because kids would be idiots to let the government manage their money going forward given how the government has already demonstrated it will steal and spend on other things any money entrusted to it. It would not end it for those who already paid in.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXKrdE2x5og&feature=youtu.be

[LibertyEsq]

18-34 is SUCH a small voting block though.

But I bet Ron gets at least 50% of it...would be a big boost to his numbers.

Also, young voters as a block don't turnout. Young Ron Paul voters do.

[sailingaway]

Looks like Bachmans numbers are shrinking while Paul's are growing. We're winning over her supporters! Guys we need to be polite about Bachmann & Cain when they both drop out we benefit the most.

I think a lot who move to Bachmann do so because of the Ron Paul lines she is using in her speeches. A lot haven't done their homework yet. A bunch of those will move to Perry when he comes in, but every time people move from a sinking 'flavor of the month' candidate, Ron picks up supporters. When Perry is revealed to be who he is, not who he pretends to be, that will happen again.

[randomname]

They did poll under 50 but just didn't break it down to 18-34 / 35-49

Ron Paul is tied for first with Giulliani with people under 50, and actually first with men and people making <50k

[trey4sports]

But I bet Ron gets at least 50% of it...would be a big boost to his numbers.

Also, young voters as a block don't turnout. Young Ron Paul voters do.

no, he wont get 50% of that voting block. No one will. 30% if he's lucky.

[LibertyEsq]

no, he wont get 50% of that voting block. No one will. 30% if he's lucky.

I bet he will once it's down to Romney, Perry/Gore, and Paul

[sailingaway]

Also, young voters as a block don't turnout. Young Ron Paul voters do.

this^^

I get push back sometimes when I say pollsters slant numbers. There are perfectly 'acceptable' ways (i.e. ways where they can argue a rationale for doing what they want to get the result they want) which can shift a PARTICULAR candidate's numbers even if they don't usually shift the entire field. In Rand's election for a while there was a stark demarcation of male and female voters as applied to Rand. And Dem pollsters who wanted to minimize his numbers chose 'historical election baselines' which just so happened to minimize the male vote and accentuate the female vote, or just didn't balance by gender at all, and came out with skewed gender sampling. It mattered to RAND's numbers, even if many DON'T use gender to balance their polling sample. There is a lot of room, and as far as I'm concerned their credibility kicks in when they are in the two week before an election window when they are actually graded. Before that it is much more fluid.

A poll that ignores the west (Ron's area) and leaves out those under 45 altogether (Ron's largest single voting block) is going to impact RON'S numbers. [edit, although someone just posted it didn't leave out the young. I was responding to comments here, I haven't read the cross tabs for this particular poll yet.)

And even so he's in third or tied for third in any articulation of the field, and with double digits.

[TheDriver]

THis poll shows Rudy at 12%, which further proves a sneaky suspicion I have (tin foil). The leftist media is continuing to keep the field divided by pumping up candidates that aren't in the race. Perry jumps in, then they'll start the shit with Rudy--when is RUdy jumping in?

[sailingaway]

THis poll shows Rudy at 12%, which further proves a sneaky suspicion I have (tin foil). The leftist media is continuing to keep the field divided by pumping up candidates that aren't in the race. Perry jumps in, then they'll start the shit with Rudy--when is RUdy jumping in?

Yeah, I think they are doing that. Yesterday I saw an article saying Rudy was interviewing 'top operatives' in New Hampshire and that he had 'a sense of urgency before they all committed to other campaigns'..... The meme doesn't need to be 'Ron' oriented, certain types just don't like who is catching on and who isn't and don't want any to get traction. They absolutely have been pushing a meme for months that the field isn't 'settled' until after Labor Day, at least. Each new name adds a new buzz that 'this might be THE ONE!!' and people don't look deeper into those they already have had in the field. Magical thinking.

[Zarn Solen]

They didn't include certain figures, because CNN didn't bother asking enough people. They polled people in the West, younger GOPers, and non-whites. It's just they did not have many of them polled.

[sailingaway]

They didn't include certain figures, because CNN didn't bother asking enough people. They polled people in the West, younger GOPers, and non-whites. It's just they did not have many of them polled.

Oh, well, it still doesn't sound representative if not enough in the west were included to even list. But whatever, no poll is perfect. And Ron polls in third place in YET ANOTHER national poll.

[xRedfoxx]

This is great news!! We are making major advancements! Triple your efforts folks!! Team Perry is a machine and we have to counter.

Get signs, stickers, handouts, everything you can. Ebay is flooded with inexpensive Ron Paul items. Get your local Meetup supplied with materials. Get some friends and wave signs. This is a marathon!! We will become the target of much more negativity; we will be ignored; downplayed; etc. We learned all the tactics in 2008. We now know what to expect!! Be cool, collected, and positive. Don't harrass other supporters. As their candidates lose out, we need them to join us. Embrace them, argue positions. Be active online. Get on CNN and counter all the liberal comments. Don't just scream "Ron Paul 2012"...make constructive arguments.

We are a crazy bunch!! They are scared. Get registered now as a republican. Learn how to be a delegate, a precinct chair, even County Chair.

Edit: Get involved in your local republican party now. 4 years ago we learned...you can't just roll in and take over. Start now...going to meetings, listening, meeting people, and SLOWLY getting involved. Offer to help set up meetings, run sound, help with slides, etc etc. Don't show up and force your opinion. Please start now!!

[randomname]

They DID poll under 50, where did you guys get that they didnt?

http://img814.imageshack.us/img814/63/33126279.png

[BUSHLIED]

We can't control who they poll. The primary season is JUST starting now and they will be dropped from polling soon enough if they don't enter. Ron is gaining and staying in double digits, this is huge and the establishment is running scared. Let's just keep hope that Ron's increased confidence is telling us something, i.e. that he knows he has a chance this time. Ron is going to do well today in the debate, he has got his mojo and all the three major issues: increasing defeict, debt ceiling, credit downgrade ALL play into his long-time critic of Keynesian and the FED...people are now going to be listening, trying to understand what is going on. He is going to be on comfortable ground in this debate. BUT as someone said, ENTITLEMENTS must be addressed because they are the elephant in the room as the economy is crippled and "cutting" gov spending is now on the table...this question becomes really tricky for ALL the candidates...

Ron has simply has to say FIRST: I never voted to spend a dime out of social security and never vote for the spending. I have not contributed to this problem BUT since people have paid in their whole lives, I would not take SS away from them...they deserve to receive their entitlement. That being said, if continue down this path, SS won't be there for anyone and that is what really concerns me. Then he can propose a really basic reform...he has to reassure seniors. Every other candidate is going to take that line which is fine because he is fighting the perception that he would do AWAY with SS and Medicare etc...so creating a favorable impression with seniors is a NET plus for Ron...

Everyone sit tight cause Ron is doing unbelievable WELL and it is still SO early in the race. Just think 6 more months of debates before any real primary begins...that is a lot of time to go by with polls, interviews, events, more crisis, candidates dropping out...etc....it's going to be grueling long haul...but RP grassroots can handle this!

[BUSHLIED]

This is great news!! We are making major advancements! Triple your efforts folks!! Team Perry is a machine and we have to counter.

Get signs, stickers, handouts, everything you can. Ebay is flooded with inexpensive Ron Paul items. Get your local Meetup supplied with materials. Get some friends and wave signs. This is a marathon!! We will become the target of much more negativity; we will be ignored; downplayed; etc. We learned all the tactics in 2008. We now know what to expect!! Be cool, collected, and positive. Don't harrass other supporters. As their candidates lose out, we need them to join us. Embrace them, argue positions. Be active online. Get on CNN and counter all the liberal comments. Don't just scream "Ron Paul 2012"...make constructive arguments.

We are a crazy bunch!! They are scared. Get registered now as a republican. Learn how to be a delegate, a precinct chair, even County Chair.

Edit: Get involved in your local republican party now. 4 years ago we learned...you can't just roll in and take over. Start now...going to meetings, listening, meeting people, and SLOWLY getting involved. Offer to help set up meetings, run sound, help with slides, etc etc. Don't show up and force your opinion. Please start now!!

Yes that is true. I can't agree more. You can't force your opinion as a newbie. You threaten people's turf that have been involved for decades. They have there own click. You have to ease yourself in and establish trust and rapport NOT to mention respect from your fellow citizens first. You don't even have to mention Ron Paul. You can say tea-party if you want BUT just say "fiscal conservationism" "cutting government spending" reducing the debt, focus on the broader platform and integrate yourself that way. Tis the best way to have some influence in your local party...look what happen when Ron's people swarmed the NV GOp, they simply SHUT down and fought us.

when the time comes you can simply assert your support for Ron as the only one that has the record on these issues...particularly if at that time Bachmann or Cain drops, you could say well Bachmann dropped, leaving me really with only Ron as someone you can support, if you are in a really neocon area, that is probably best...by that time, Ron will be polling solidly double-digits and fund-raising would have picked up, so the elect-ability issue is going to swing Ron's way.

TIMING is everything. Be patience and inwardly confident. Everyone is counting on each other to maximize there impact in their local area.

[IndianaPolitico]

I just did my own average based on the RCP average, minus the inaccurate McClatchy/Marist poll. Ron Paul's new average is 9.8%!

[Agorism]

bump

I believe I posted the poll first.

[PaulConventionWV]

I bet he will once it's down to Romney, Perry/Gore, and Paul

I see what you did there...

[Paul4Prez]

Great results. Among real candidates (now that Perry is in), Ron Paul is at 14 percent nationally.

[KingRobbStark]

Is this victory I hear?