How Many Votes Will Ron Get at Ames?

[Dan Chisholm]

The Mitt Romney guys seem pretty sure that Ron is going to win (http://mittromneycentral.com/2011/08/10/some-predictions-and-an-opportunity-to-make-your-voice-heard/). What do you all honestly think? Is Ron going to win and also how many votes will he get? Can he get more than Romney did in 2007?

[Bruno]

Not sure, but 1 more than Mitt would be sweet. :)

[LibertyEsq]

I don't want to be raising expectations, but after seeing the Fairfield turnout, I have a VERY good feeling about Ames.

4k+ is definitely possible.

[IndianaPolitico]

I think Ron can win, it will be very close between him and Bachmann. I think it will be something like this.

1. 4,000. (Paul/Bachmann.)
2. 3,600. (Paul/Bachmann.)
3. 2,800. (Pawlenty.)
4. 1,500. (Cain/Santorum.)

[RonPaul101.com]

I think Ron can win, it will be very close between him and Bachmann. I think it will be something like this.

1. 4,000. (Paul/Bachmann.)
2. 3,600. (Paul/Bachmann.)
3. 2,800. (Pawlenty.)
4. 1,500. (Cain/Santorum.)

I agree with this 100%

[sailingaway]

I really don't like these kinds of polls, people vote with their hearts.

[sailingaway]

The Mitt Romney guys seem pretty sure that Ron is going to win (http://mittromneycentral.com/2011/08/10/some-predictions-and-an-opportunity-to-make-your-voice-heard/). What do you all honestly think? Is Ron going to win and also how many votes will he get? Can he get more than Romney did in 2007?

Mitt Romney's guys have every reason to push up expectations on Ron who has beat them in the past. Note that they say we have 'literally been organizing this for years' which we know is utter nonsense. Romney has a not too subtle under the radar push for his own vote going, including a phone call to 10,000+ supporters of his in Iowa from the last time. Remember, he has the email addresses of the 4000+ he bused in last time. He didn't need phone banking.

[dusman]

One of the commenters there predicted Ron Paul would only get 1,800 votes. That's a pretty low expectation! It is really hard to tell how deep Ron Paul's support goes, but I hope to see at least 4k come out, if not more. I know I've seen at least 10-15 Iowans around here already have 2-5 people going with them.

[sailingaway]

I note that the OP is a Romney supporter, which is fine, but also that you came on here right before SRLC in 2010 saying Paul was going to pulverize Romney there, and of course Ron lost by one vote. So your predictions aren't always accurate, either.

Is Mitt going to play baseball with Ron's family?

[CaseyJones]

lots

[Dan Chisholm]

SLRC was a complete surprise to all of us Romney supporters. Nancy and David French paid a ton of money ton win that poll and Mitt didn't even show up. I had no idea buying an ad in the brochure and giving away piggy banks and copies or No Apology was all it was going to take for Mitt to win there. Anyway, I was at CPAC this year as well and that's a big reason why I'm also expecting Ron to win. I can honestly say that Ron Paul has the most enthusiastic supporters for things like straw polls and the reports that Mitt is trying to get voters to show up "under the radar" is not correct. His staffers are just calling 2008 supporters telling them that Mitt wants to win the caucus and that his lack of effort in the straw poll doesn't mean he's giving up on Iowa.

[sailingaway]

"for things like straw polls"

He also is polling nationally in third place, and in Iowa in third place with 16 % and within striking distance of your guy :p

And Ron's numbers are RISING.

We don't mind it being Ron against Romney in the end.

Romney, Perry, Huntsman, whomever.... it will be the 'conservative bracket winner' against one of those. We're still competing for that conservative bracket. (And Perry is pretending to be in that bracket, which is truly hilarious.)

[Dan Chisholm]

I'm guessing the delegate count will be a four-way race between Paul, Bachmann, Romney, and Perry. As for Ames, I do think Ron is going to win which will be great news for both of our camps. All of us Romney supporters are rooting for ya.