Debra Medina for US Congress?

[Jesubub]

As stated on 3/3/2010 (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?234279-Debra-Medina-for-TX-14-U.S.-Congress-in-2012!)...


Just a hunch, but I think Ron Paul will retire and run for President in 2012.

What better replacement, if that indeed happens, than Medina?


You were certainly right about Paul's retirement & campaign, and I've heard rumblings that Medina will run for US Congress, but it can't be in Paul's district since her county (Wharton) was separated from Paul's district and placed in 27. However, she can still represent a big chunk of his old district that was split off, and a Medina seat in Congress is a victory no matter where her district lies. She MUST run!


The Final Congressional Map
http://i52.tinypic.com/4scrbm.jpg

[vita3]

You want a WINNER not a runner.

[libertyjam]

Medina has always been more interested in making a difference at the state and local level, rather than get into the national. Maybe she would change her mind this time around, IDK.

[Jesubub]

You want a WINNER not a runner.

I think it's strongly implied that she must win if she runs. Are you suggesting she doesn't have a shot after bolstering her name recognition during her 2010 campaign? She's recognized across the state (& her district) while the 1-term incumbent only has county-level recognition. I'd say she has a 60%+ chance at winning.

[Agorism]

Did Ron's district officially get broken up then?

[vita3]

60% is good.

All I'm saying is the goal must be to win, not make a strong showing.

[trey4sports]

i don't think she is in his district anymore. There have been many threads on this in the last couple months and it seemed like there was something barring her from running for his old spot.

[Jesubub]

Look at the map I embedded. She will end up in 27 and Paul's 14 will shrink east.

Current TX-14
http://paul.house.gov/images/stories/TX14_110.jpg

[AJ Antimony]

I think it's strongly implied that she must win if she runs. Are you suggesting she doesn't have a shot after bolstering her name recognition during her 2010 campaign? She's recognized across the state (& her district) while the 1-term incumbent only has county-level recognition. I'd say she has a 60%+ chance at winning.

Before Republican Rep. Farenthold won the District 27 race in 2010 (by 799 votes), it was represented for about 30 years by Democrat Solomon Ortiz. I think he may have lost re-election once during that time, but that's trivial. The point is, this isn't a safe Republican district at all. As a result, the last thing ANY Republican in Texas would want is a competitive GOP primary for this seat in 2012.

If Medina wants to piss every Texas Republican off, and if she wants to go from being liked to being hated, then she should run for this seat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_27th_congressional_district

[libertybrewcity]

state senate, governor, state house. something winnable. I would think she is liked in her community given she was the GOP county chair. She should not follow the route of kokesh, harris, dennis, and all the others that have taken up an unwinnable challenge.

[hueylong]

Interesting territory, to be sure.

[Jesubub]

Before Republican Rep. Farenthold won the District 27 race in 2010 (by 799 votes), it was represented for about 30 years by Democrat Solomon Ortiz. I think he may have lost re-election once during that time, but that's trivial. The point is, this isn't a safe Republican district at all. As a result, the last thing ANY Republican in Texas would want is a competitive GOP primary for this seat in 2012.

If Medina wants to piss every Texas Republican off, and if she wants to go from being liked to being hated, then she should run for this seat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_27th_congressional_district

All bets are off now that TX-27 will extend all the way up to Bastrop Co, and Nueces Co is the farthest south it goes. You can throw history out the window. Review the new map again.

Here's the current one:
http://assets.realclearpolitics.com/images/districts/TX27.gif

Also, Medina's husband is Hispanic, which could play well wherever it's an issue.

I think that race is winnable for her.

[Jesubub]

Did Ron's district officially get broken up then?

Yes, this is the final redrawing of the districts. His TX-14 was cut back considerably.

http://i52.tinypic.com/4scrbm.jpg

[Aratus]

i seyz run, ms. debbie, run!!! ...as in hopefully
4 something dr. ron paul ain't also running for!

[Imperial]

Here is some analysis of the seat from the website I write for (http://redracinghorses.com/diary/806/texas-by-James_Nola):



TX-27: Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)
Old district: 53-46 Obama
New district: 59-41 McCain
And the big winner of Texas redistricting is....Blake Farenthold! That's assuming he can get through a primary, of course, in the massively changed 27th. This is no longer a VRA seat, but remains a majority-minority seat, and is 50% Hispanic in total population (it will probably be a Hispanic-majority VAP seat by 2020.) Nevertheless, it's safe, as the Anglos here are very conservatives and the Hispanics not as liberal as their Valley brethren. Farenthold retains his base in Corpus Christi and San Patricio County, and although he's added both coastal and Hill Country territory, he's done well enough in Congress that he's favored to hold this.


Now Farenthold is a bit more moderate than the primary electorate in the district, and there has been lots of talk of a primary challenge- State Rep. Raul Torres (R) has been tossed around as one name, as has another state rep whose name escapes me. Medina could pull off a challenge from the right, but she would need A LOT of money to compete. Plus, if Medina did pull off a win I bet a decently funded Democrat would emerge as well, requiring more money dropped in the pot later.

[Jesubub]

Big risk, big reward.

[Romulus]

I hope she runs...

[Napoleon's Shadow]

Let this simmer for a few weeks and let's see what happens.

Not sayin, just sayin ;) :D :collins: