Washington Post: Can Ron Paul Win It All In Iowa?

[No Free Beer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-ron-paul-win-it-all-in-iowa/2011/08/09/gIQAf2SG5I_story.html

[willwash]

I swear to effing Poseidon if I read the phrase "long-shot" in another article about Ron Paul, after seeing him in third place in two major polls, second place in fundraising, and the winner of the most straw polls, I'm going to punch something.

[No Free Beer]

hahaha! That "long shot" will be winning the Repub Nomination before they know it, leaving themselves to scratch their own heads.

[FSP-Rebel]

I swear to effing Poseidon if I read the phrase "long-shot" in another article about Ron Paul, after seeing him in third place in two major polls, second place in fundraising, and the winner of the most straw polls, I'm going to punch something.

Lol

[Billay]

Wishful thinking says maybe they want to call him a longshot so it'll make a great story when he wins :)

[wstrucke]

I suspect the creative use of adjectives is one method to discredit success when you don't support someone.

[goRPaul]

“He is honest and he is consistent; he doesn’t pander and play political games; he doesn’t say one thing to one group and something else to another group,” said Britton Sprouse, 24, who is spending his summer in Iowa to aid Paul’s straw poll effort. “He is very smart on economics, he understands the Federal Reserve, and for all those reasons, he is the right guy.”

That's me fellas. I'm famous! :p

[AlexAmore]

That's me fellas. I'm famous! :p

OMG we have a celebrity among us! Nice job!

[V3n]

If you read "long shot" and "quixotic bid" in one article - that's a BINGO!!!

[TomtheTinker]

+1 for being famous.

[Epic]

How does 16% in Iowa and 14% nationally make someone a long-shot?

By that standard, the only non long-shot is Romney.


For instance, if Paul polls better than Michele Bachmann, the emotional favorite who has been gaining momentum among conservatives, the Minnesota congresswoman’s campaign could be damaged.

But wait, Paul is outpolling Bachmann nationally, so how is Bachmann "gaining momentum" while Paul isn't?


And a recent “Ready, Ames, Fire” fundraiser, or “moneybomb” in Paul parlance, brought half a million dollars to the Paul campaign

No it was 600k+. Not "Half a million".

I mean, are these people even trying to write a correct article?

[sailingaway]

I posted, but it was comment 24...


Ron Paul HAS polled better than Michele Bachmann, in the latest Gallup national poll where he got 14% and third nationally behind, and in striking distance of Romney and Perry, and ahead of Bachmann. Now in Iowa, she is polling first in the Rasmussen poll Sunday, but he again is in third place and surging up, while her numbers are dropping.

You are going to have to find a better way to marginalize him. If he wins or comes in second or third in Ames, it will reflect polling by nationally known polling companies, as well as the enthusiasm of the specific people at the straw poll.


all the same, it isn't actually a putrid article. I like that Rhoads kid.

[pauliticalfan]

What's up with this whole "his supporters call him Dr." thing as if it's a cultish nickname. Do they not realize that people call him doctor because he's an effing doctor?

[sailingaway]

As opposed to Congressman, I think they mean. Most politicians use their royal titles, Ron is apt to ask people to call him by his first name, but I only would behind his back (like in this post). Dr Paul shows more respect than 'Congressman', I mean, look at all the Congressmen the cat dragged in.....

[Steve-in-NY]

Shes not. Shes losing momentum, but she had such a large initial media push she still pretty high up.
I know its not scientific, but for trends, Ive been following the candidates official campaign pages estimated traffic... pretty interesting.

http://www.quantcast.com/mittromney.com
http://www.quantcast.com/ronpaul2012.com
http://www.quantcast.com/michelebachmann.com

also please note there are like 5 "major" ron paul sites... ronpaulforums, dailypaul, etc so its not even a full indicator, not by a longshot - Ive kind of been using it as more of of "new ppl checking out Ron Paul" more than anything else.
Its about as interesting as looking at oil prices... but the higher Paul goes the happier I get...

[UtahApocalypse]

That's me fellas. I'm famous! :p

Thank you for having a decent comment. Surprised they didn't find someone to quote saying "He wants to make pot legal, and 9/11 was a false flag!!"

[sailingaway]

still, she's awfully high.

:(

[roversaurus]

I thought the article was pretty decent. And what a time to start having articles saying "Ron Paul could come in first in Ames"... He is peaking at EXACTLY the right time. Folks this could be it. I'm worried now that if he comes in third they will say he under performed. But dang this feels exciting. He could win. What does President Ron Paul really mean? It makes me want to send more money. What will I say years from now? Was I "there" when the country was saved?
I know it sounds melodramatic but I don't think the country will make it if Ron Paul doesn't become president. If we don't shrink government within 10 years I don't think we'll survive. And Ron Paul is the only one who will do it. That really is "Hope and Change".

[sailingaway]

Thank you for having a decent comment. Surprised they didn't find someone to quote saying "He wants to make pot legal, and 9/11 was a false flag!!"

Actual supporters (rather than trolls) who would say something like that to the media have to be pretty rare.

[pauliticalfan]

^Looks like MB's on a major downward trend, no?

[sailingaway]

I thought the article was pretty decent. And what a time to start having articles saying "Ron Paul could come in first in Ames"... He is peaking at EXACTLY the right time. Folks this could be it. I'm worried now that if he comes in third they will say he under performed. But dang this feels exciting. He could win. What does President Ron Paul really mean? It makes me want to send more money. What will I say years from now? Was I "there" when the country was saved?
I know it sounds melodramatic but I don't think the country will make it if Ron Paul doesn't become president. If we don't shrink government within 10 years I don't think we'll survive. And Ron Paul is the only one who will do it. That really is "Hope and Change".

I actually think they are trying to raise expectations JUST SO it isn't such a big deal if he performs well. They did the same thing this year with CPAC and the SRLC then gave the story of his winning short shrift. However, Iowa won't feel that way. They know how hard it is.

[civusamericanus]

As opposed to Congressman, I think they mean. Most politicians use their royal titles, Ron is apt to ask people to call him by his first name, but I only would behind his back (like in this post). Dr Paul shows more respect than 'Congressman', I mean, look at all the Congressmen the cat dragged in.....
I agree, I service over 300 doctors and use the Dr. title everytime, I'm engaged in conversation. Like you said, Ron Paul isn't big on titles, only individuals.

When I met Ron Paul after the Greenville-Debates, I said "I'm on the road a lot, so I bought your audio book "Liberty Defined", RP responded "that's one way of doing it.". I then said thank you Dr. Paul, and moved out of the way quickly so others could get autographs. As you can tell I was very excited. Even more excited when I found out someone snapped my picture and it was included in a news article. (I always look for reasons to brag about the only autograph I've ever asked for)
http://carolinaledger.com/2011/05/11/the-gop-waits-for-superman-a-tea-party-finds-theirs/
http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/230466_1842515655635_1022903251_31690220_715262_n. jpg

[Jackie Treehorn]

I swear to effing Poseidon

i lol'd

[trey4sports]

I actually think they are trying to raise expectations JUST SO it isn't such a big deal if he performs well. They did the same thing this year with CPAC and the SRLC then gave the story of his winning short shrift. However, Iowa won't feel that way. They know how hard it is.

Exactly, While some in the media work to marginalize the results IOWANS understand the importance of the straw poll and it WILL force them to cover Ron as a top-tier (dare I say the top-tier candidate) in Iowa :)

[wstrucke]

Shes not. Shes losing momentum, but she had such a large initial media push she still pretty high up.
I know its not scientific, but for trends, Ive been following the candidates official campaign pages estimated traffic... pretty interesting.

http://www.quantcast.com/mittromney.com
http://www.quantcast.com/ronpaul2012.com
http://www.quantcast.com/michelebachmann.com

also please note there are like 5 "major" ron paul sites... ronpaulforums, dailypaul, etc so its not even a full indicator, not by a longshot - Ive kind of been using it as more of of "new ppl checking out Ron Paul" more than anything else.
Its about as interesting as looking at oil prices... but the higher Paul goes the happier I get...

The links say "Site not quantified. Data is estimated." which makes sense since you don't run those sites. Where is this data coming from? If it's not quantified, isn't it pretty much useless as an indicator?

[Napoleon's Shadow]

"effing Posiden"... that sounds like a Photoshop meme just waiting to happen around here... maybe Toady can make a come back too! ;-)





http://fc08.deviantart.net/fs40/f/2009/015/9/1/POSEIDON_by_Grafik.jpg

[goRPaul]

uh... effing Poseidon = Aqua Buddha?

[KingRobbStark]

The only thing that's a long-shot about Ron Paul is his penis, and even then it still can't measure up.

[sofia]

If you read "long shot" and "quixotic bid" in one article - that's a BINGO!!!

throw in "gadfly" for a Trifecta!

[Steve-in-NY]

The links say "Site not quantified. Data is estimated." which makes sense since you don't run those sites. Where is this data coming from? If it's not quantified, isn't it pretty much useless as an indicator?

The numbers come from a variety of sources, for example tracking tool bars, crawler data, link counts and other methods.
Clearly, unless you have access to the actual server logs you will not have a perfect metric.

The data isnt per say useless, though in my experience the numbers are usually lower than the sites actual performance. However, the trending is whats useful, as even if the traffic amount is incomplete, the general trends in traffic up or down are usually a good indicator.