Steve Deace predicts Michele Bachmann straw poll win (Ron Paul Predicted Second)

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60858.html


Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace, a prominent Huckabee ally from 2008, forecasts the 2012 candidates will finish in this order at Ames: Michele Bachmann (21 percent), Ron Paul (18 percent), Tim Pawlenty (15 percent), Rick Santorum (13 percent), Herman Cain (9 percent), Mitt Romney (8 percent), Rick Perry (7 percent), Newt Gingrich (4 percent), Sarah Palin (3 percent), Thaddeus McCotter (1 percent), Jon Huntsman (1 percent).

[IndianaPolitico]

I think it it interesting that even people who don't think he will win, still think he will come VERY close. We can win!

[eduardo89]

a clsoe second wouldn't be bad, but i think Ron will win by about 150 votes. So watch for the next day's papers to read

"Michele Bachmann comes within 150 votes of Ames win, solidifies front-runner status"

[erowe1]

I like RP being underestimated in the run up to this.

[Bruno]

He picked Romney to come in 7th? Interesting.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

He picked Romney to come in 7th? Interesting.

Looks like he predicted Romney to finish sixth.

[Bruno]

Looks like he predicted Romney to finish sixth.

Counted wrong, thanks. Still surprising, though

[wgadget]

He may be better off winning second...Less poo-pooing.

[KingRobbStark]

A second place win is still significant, but I'd rather we get first.

[erowe1]

A second place win is still significant, but I'd rather we get first.

I get how it would be good for me to keep a poker face. But I can't keep myself from saying, even at this premature moment, Ron Paul must win Ames.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I get how it would be good for me to keep a poker face. But I can't keep myself from saying, even at this premature moment, Ron Paul must win Ames.

Amen.

[specsaregood]

He may be better off winning second...Less poo-pooing.

One advantage we have is that the Iowa GOP can't afford to let his 1st place be poo-pooed. It is their big fundraiser event, if they let his 1st place be poo-pooed, it will discourage future candidates from spending money to win it.

[Fermli]

Santorum 4th? what

[MRoCkEd]

Top three is very likely. Second is feasible. First is difficult, but possible. A huge push in this last week could do the trick.

(Just my view based on reports)

[eleganz]

Top three is very likely. Second is feasible. First is difficult, but possible. A huge push in this last week could do the trick.

(Just my view based on reports)


Yup, a HUUUGE push emphasizing the recent credit downgrade and letting the people know that Ron Paul is literally the only ones with real answers to real problems.

The downgrade rocked the whole world, we're expecting QE3 AND it isn't the last that we're going to see of these things for years to come unless we have somebody like Ron Paul educating and leading the nation in the right direction.

[fatjohn]

This guy thinks there are more than a thousand santorum supporters in Iowa. LOL. Ron will certainly have more than double that of Rick, which would put him at 27% according to this guy. The same number that he polled in Iowa between voters who are certain about their future vote. 27% That is my guess

[RonPaul101.com]

Santorum 4th? what

It would be a shocker if Ricky was liked by more than 9 people in one state...

[sailingaway]

She is favored, by any metric. She should win.

Obviously, I hope Ron wins, and he is surging in the polls at the right time..... so we'll see.....

[PastaRocket848]

i think bachmann's support is over-rated. on what basis is she expected to win? i know her polls are good.. but ames is about organization, and everything i've read says that she was late to the party and still doesn't have much of a ground game.

[speciallyblend]

i hope he is dead wrong, Ron Paul 2012 #1


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9Uhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9U

[sailingaway]

Santorum 4th? what

He has organization in the state, a bunch of the bottom tier doesn't. I think Santorum will be fifth, but between him and Cain I'm not sure.

[sailingaway]

i think bachmann's support is over-rated. on what basis is she expected to win? i know her polls are good.. but ames is about organization, and everything i've read says that she was late to the party and still doesn't have much of a ground game.

She has been actively organizing with and wooing the tea party networks in Iowa since at least January and has had legislators and party bigwigs lined up since at least April. She has been in there, regardless of what she says.

[specsaregood]

i think bachmann's support is over-rated. on what basis is she expected to win? i know her polls are good.. but ames is about organization, and everything i've read says that she was late to the party and still doesn't have much of a ground game.

She is from Iowa, and did you hear she was born in Iowa? Plus she has Iowa common sense because she is from Iowa so she understands Iowans since she used to be an Iowan.

[PastaRocket848]

^ lol that's about it. throw in "jesus" a few times and you may have just won her the straw poll.. and the caucus

[dusman]

She is from Iowa, and did you hear she was born in Iowa? Plus she has Iowa common sense because she is from Iowa so she understands Iowans since she used to be an Iowan.

So... let me get this straight... Bachmann is Iowan? Did I understand that correctly? Just making sure. :D

[musicmax]

I get how it would be good for me to keep a poker face. But I can't keep myself from saying, even at this premature moment, Ron Paul must win Ames.

+1

A spin of "straw polls are meaningless" is a lot easier to deal with than "MB/T-Paw established as main threat to Romney" or "muddled field opens door for Perry/Palin".

Also if I'm Jesse Benton I make sure that everybody within 5 miles of this thing who is wearing RP swag is carrying an Iowa drivers license.

[wgadget]

So... let me get this straight... Bachmann is Iowan? Did I understand that correctly? Just making sure. :D

And didn't she say something about adopting 53 kids?

[trey4sports]

I get how it would be good for me to keep a poker face. But I can't keep myself from saying, even at this premature moment, Ron Paul must win Ames.

I would agree with that. I like the idea that he is being forecasted as second though because it will make it more difficult for them to discount the results. If the meme going into the straw poll for several months ahead of time was "Ron Paul is going to handily win" then when we win it wouldn't really give us a whole lot of momentum but a come from behind victory really pushes Ron to the front of the news.

[Suzu]

a clsoe second wouldn't be bad, but i think Ron will win by about 150 votes. So watch for the next day's papers to read "Michele Bachmann comes within 150 votes of Ames win, solidifies front-runner status".Or RP wins, and they find some way to minimize him without discounting the whole event.

[Eric21ND]

The BIG story will be Huntsman's 2nd place finish! *eyeroll*

[anaconda]

I think it it interesting that even people who don't think he will win, still think he will come VERY close. We can win!

Interesting how different the general Republican Iowa polling numbers are vs. the Ames Straw Poll prediction numbers...Ron is situated similarly in both but many of the other players vary considerably.

[roho76]

She is from Iowa, and did you hear she was born in Iowa? Plus she has Iowa common sense because she is from Iowa so she understands Iowans since she used to be an Iowan.

And now she represents the people of Minnesota.

[John of Des Moines]

She is from Iowa, and did you hear she was born in Iowa? Plus she has Iowa common sense because she is from Iowa so she understands Iowans since she used to be an Iowan.

Who thinks John Wayne is from Waterloo - John Wayne Gacy lived there, but not the Duke.

[KramerDSP]

The BIG story will be Huntsman's 2nd place finish! *eyeroll*

Nahh. It'll be Rick Perry's announcement he is running for President. Even though it appears to already have been announced that he will be announcing Saturday.

[Raize]

Interesting how different the general Republican Iowa polling numbers are vs. the Ames Straw Poll prediction numbers...Ron is situated similarly in both but many of the other players vary considerably.

Straw Poll is kind of a different game. If you are playing, you have to bring your team and you have to bus that team in. Every straw poll winner since I was a kid was won by someone who had buses. Romney will do better on caucus night than in the Straw Poll, but a solid second by Paul in the Straw Poll will set him up to beat Bachmann in the Iowa caucus.

What makes the straw poll more than a regular poll is that the campaigns are paying for your ticket to vote. So it is more about who spends more AND has the grassroots support. Bachmann and Paul are really the only ones who can contend to have any grassroots support, while Pawlenty, Paul and Santorum are the only ones who can contend to have spent any money.

There is a lot of pressure on Bachmann to perform exceptionally well in this debate. If she does not, she will be in trouble going into the Straw Poll.

Remember, McCain had only 101 votes or .7% of the vote in 2007 Straw Poll. Fred Thompson wasn't competing and did the best of anyone who has never actually "competed" in the Straw Poll at 1.4%. Romney will be punished harshly for not paying for real estate and a speaking slot.

[mit26chell]

Tim Pawlenty is being underestimated... hardcore underestimated. I've read he has a solid ground game ongoing in Iowa, and remember he raised just about what Paul raised for the second quarter. I think the real competition is between Paul and Pawlenty.