New Iowa poll released by Rasmussen, Ron Paul in 3rd place with 16%!

[Gage]

Michele Bachmann 22%
Mitt Romney 21%
Ron Paul 16%
Rick Perry 12%
Tim Pawlenty 11%


...

[MRoCkEd]

Amazing, amazing!

[libertybrewcity]

Just heard it on Rasmussen:)


49% say that they may not vote for the Republican if RP is not nominated

but

Ron Paul has the most solid support among all the candidates

[Agorism]

Paul surging!

[Badger Paul]

For the first time the polling is starting to reflect what we had been hearing on the ground. Instead of seeing Cain or Gingrich ahead of Paul based on name recognition or media attention, now we're the numbers the way they should be based on organization and depth of support.

The poll also shows Pawlenty starting to move up as well, probably due to his TV ads and organization as well. He's going to make a major push at Ames, believe me because he knows it's do or die time and these poll results have to be encouraging for him.

[Sentinelrv]

HOLY *@#!

Now this is what I'm talking about! I just danced around the room when I read the thread title. We can win this thing! :D

[kill the banks]

excellent news

[Zarn Solen]

I'm surprised Pawlenty is that high.

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Great news.

[wgadget]

Just heard it on Rasmussen:)


49% say that they may not vote for the Republican if RP is not nominated

but

Ron Paul has the most solid support among all the candidates

Them's {beautiful} fightin' words to the GOP.

[wgadget]

And someone needs to let ol' Erick Erickson in on the numbers. His one sentence on the "horse race" regarding Ron Paul the last two weeks has been "Ron Paul will not be the nominee."

On the air, he told a caller that his reasoning is that RP does so poorly in the polls. LOL

[wgadget]

Never mind.

[KramerDSP]

As early as Summer of 2007, the critics said "Ron Paul has his usual loyal 1 to 5 % of the base that will not go anywhere else".

As early as one month ago, the critics said "Ron Paul has his usual loyal 10% of the base that will not go anywhere else".

And now today, we hear from Rasmussen that Ron Paul has surpassed the 15% barrier in Iowa. If he wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and hits 20% nationally, I daresay it's all over as the "I always liked him" crowd will be trampling each other rushing onto his bandwagon.

[bolidew]

Trouble is Rick Perry not on the Ames ballot.....

[realtonygoodwin]

Great news

[Gage]

WASHINGTON -- Texas Representative Ron Paul is the top 2012 presidential contender for voters who say they are positive they will not change their mind about the candidates before the election, but half of those polled say they would not vote for a different Republican candidate if Paul is not the nominee, says pollster Scott Rasmussen.

The data comes from the latest polls by Rasmussen, who released the data on the WMAL Rasmussen Report Sunday.

More than half of those polled say they think President Obama winning a reelection is somewhat likely. Fewer than 20 percent say his reelection is not at all likely.

http://www.wmal.com/Article.asp?id=2255743

[harikaried]

http://www.wmal.com/Article.asp?id=2255743
Texas Representative Ron Paul is the top 2012 presidential contender for voters who say they are positive they will not change their mind about the candidates before the election, but half of those polled say they would not vote for a different Republican candidate if Paul is not the nominee, says pollster Scott Rasmussen.

[realtonygoodwin]

http://www.wmal.com/Article.asp?id=2255743

+ rep

[BIG_J]

While the overall quote is cool. I never thought I would see the day where this:

"Ron Paul is the top 2012 presidential contender"

is written. Thanks to every hard working volunteer and fund raisers! He's catching on I'm telling ya!

[KingRobbStark]

YEA YEA YEA!! whacha gonna do wacha gonna do when Ron Paul comes for you.

[pauliticalfan]

Keep up the hard work everyone. We are in striking distance, that means we keep have to striking!

[KramerDSP]

Texas Representative Ron Paul is the top 2012 presidential contender for voters who say they are positive they will not change their mind about the candidates before the election, but half of those polled say they would not vote for a different Republican candidate if Paul is not the nominee, says pollster Scott Rasmussen.

The GOP needs to get it through their skulls. As SpeciallyBlend has been saying all along -

Either Ronald Ernest Paul, M.D. is the GOP nominee, or you are guaranteeing four more years of Barack Obama. Your choice, GOP!!!!!!

The more I think about this, slow and steady has been the name of the game all along. Ron keeps adding support day by day, and the support is crystallized. Virtually everyone else is riding a roller coaster with ups and downs, while RP keeps rolling along gaining momentum day by day.

[Lucille]

Just heard it on Rasmussen:)


49% say that they may not vote for the Republican if RP is not nominated

Unreal.

[Cowlesy]

Rick Santorum has this in the bag I'm telling you! Clear Frontrunner!





/sarc

[Gage]

Interesting comments about the poll on this page: http://race42012.com/2011/08/07/poll-watch-gop-iowa-caucus-rasmussen/#comments

[TRIGRHAPPY]

This is awesome news. He's like the juggernaut. The people who actually research him, realize he's the only honest one in the running. Hence 49% saying its him or they'll vote 3rd party.

[harikaried]

I wonder how I should integrate this into my opening when calling robopoll numbers..

Just a few hours ago, Ron Paul was declared as the top 2012 presidential contender in Iowa. We need you to vote for him at the Ames Straw Poll to show the rest of the nation that he truly is a serious contender to be the 2012 president!

[HarryBrowneLives]

And someone needs to let ol' Erick Erickson in on the numbers. His one sentence on the "horse race" regarding Ron Paul the last two weeks has been "Ron Paul will not be the nominee."

On the air, he told a caller that his reasoning is that RP does so poorly in the polls. LOL

Don't waste your time on DeadState and Erick. We just need to keep focus on what we've been doing ... gaining poll numbers and support. I think it's safe to say DeadState's votes were never ours to have. The other 999.999% of the GOP may still be a possibility. Let us keep gaining support. Let them continue to be rediculous.

[icon124]

You know what this means...we fight even harder. I was here (and I'm sure plenty others too) when we couldn't even get people to say Ron Paul out of their mouths....now we are at 16% in Iowa and very close to first.

BUT it means nothing until people actually vote.....so let's fight EVEN HARDER FOR LIBERTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[harikaried]

Send to druge?

[Agorism]

Send to druge?



this lol. Will the label "Ron Paul surges in Iowa"

[Bruno]

send to druge?

yes!

[pauliticalfan]

You know what this means...we fight even harder. I was here (and I'm sure plenty others too) when we couldn't even get people to say Ron Paul out of their mouths....now we are at 16% in Iowa and very close to first.

BUT it means nothing until people actually vote.....so let's fight EVEN HARDER FOR LIBERTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

+1

[anaconda]

Paul surging!

Sweet! Quite a contrast to numbers from a few weeks ago:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

[anaconda]

...

Link?

[Kotin]

Interesting comments about the poll on this page: http://race42012.com/2011/08/07/poll-watch-gop-iowa-caucus-rasmussen/#comments

Check out what one guy said:

"But if he does finish 1st or 2nd in the straw poll….will that mean a launching of a full scale Paul campaign? How many people would vote for Ron Paul if they thought he had a chance? I’m in that camp…and i think the numbers would surprise you. Not to mention his appeal to independants. Ron Paul can win. But he needs a top 2 finish at Ames….and then needs to parlay that into a victory on caucus night. Long shot? Yes. But still very much possible."

[Agorism]

Seriously if enough people link drudge in his message box (you don't even have to email) and click send we might get a main headline out of this.

I think Rasmussen is holding the results as he doesn't like them. He aired them verbally but he's not putting out a real release.

[Dorfsmith]

Which link are you sending Drudge?

[Gage]

Link?

It was announced by Rasmussen on the radio. No official press release yet.

[trey4sports]

- i leave the forum for a couple days and we get earth-shattering poll news! - just my luck

[anaconda]

Michele Bachmann 22%
Mitt Romney 21%
Ron Paul 16%
Rick Perry 12%
Tim Pawlenty 11%

Link?

[Gage]

Link?

I answered you already.

[pacu44]

...

Perry not even officially in, or did I miss something?

[emr1028]

Where is the full report? I want to over-analyze it.

[Immortal Technique]

here is the youtubes guys, spread the word
Were coming Mitt, WERE COMING !

New Iowa Poll Released By Rasmussen, Ron Paul in 3rd place with 16%!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x15NxuTu9VE

Airing Date Aug.07, 2011

The Rasmussen Report

[Gage]

here is the youtubes guys, spread the word
Were coming Mitt, WERE COMING !

New Iowa Poll Released By Rasmussen, Ron Paul in 3rd place with 16%!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x15NxuTu9VE

Airing Date Aug.07, 2011

The Rasmussen Report

+Rep

[Agorism]

Anyone else remember Rush Limbaugh with this routine he did where he would say he has the results, and he would thrash the papers in a crinkling sound before he released the result. idk why this makes me think of that.

[Havax]

For the first time in my adult life, I am proud to be an American.

[Gage]

For the first time in my adult life, I am proud to be an American.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa9GN1ul50c

[HarryBrowneLives]

Seriously if enough people link drudge in his message box (you don't even have to email) and click send we might get a main headline out of this.

I think Rasmussen is holding the results as he doesn't like them. He aired them verbally but he's not putting out a real release.

This! I bet they sit on this poll! Rasmussen is often quoted as the standard in polling companies with the Neocon talk show hosts. I say get it our for 'em. Make 'em eat it! Bahahahahha!

[Cleaner44]

The GOP needs to get it through their skulls. As SpeciallyBlend has been saying all along -

Either Ronald Ernest Paul, M.D. is the GOP nominee, or you are guaranteeing four more years of Barack Obama. Your choice, GOP!!!!!!

The more I think about this, slow and steady has been the name of the game all along. Ron keeps adding support day by day, and the support is crystallized. Virtually everyone else is riding a roller coaster with ups and downs, while RP keeps rolling along gaining momentum day by day.

THIS 100%!!!

The GOP will either nominate Ron Paul or suffer defeat. We will not compromise. We will hold to our principles.

[Esoteric]

He's catching on, I'm telling you!

[Aliangel]

Omg Whooooooo!! God Bless!!

[mainstream economist]

HOLY *@#!

Now this is what I'm talking about! I just danced around the room when I read the thread title. We can win this thing! :D

I sang the Yao Ming song (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0Ve5j7w26I)...as the Ron Paul song. Ron-Paul, ronpaulronpaulronpaul, Ro--n Pau-l, Ron Paul...

[Gage]

nvm

[Epic]

Rasmussen Sunday radio reports are on their website the next day (Monday).

Do not contact them (unless it doesn't show up tomorrow).

[Aliangel]

i remember this national Rasmussen poll from April:

''Donald Trump 19%
Mitt Romney 17%
Mike Huckabee 15%

Newt Gingrich 9%
Sarah Palin 9%
Ron Paul 8%
''

A reminder how quickly things can change!!!

[ItsTime]

Ron Paul will win.

[Agorism]

Dow Futures down 277. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/)

DOW 10000 here we come. Back to the year 2000 again.

[Aliangel]

Dow Futures down 277. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/)

DOW 10000 here we come. Back to the year 2000 again.

Cool , maybe folks can get a clue this time around.

[ItsTime]

Dow Futures down 277. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/)

DOW 10000 here we come. Back to the year 2000 again.

Obama's recession has started.

[Aratus]

...

Dr. RON PAUL IS THE MAN! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO T

[samsung1]

Hard work pays off!

[xRedfoxx]

Hard work def. pays off. I know a bunch of folks are working non-stop on the phone calls.....and I know others pushing materials, etc.

[PaulConventionWV]

OMG! I'm beginning to think Ron Paul may actually do this!! So excited!

On another note, I would like to thank the campaign for their extraordinary efforts. I think it's a combination of two things that we are in such a good position already (yes, it's still early!) First, the campaign has done a great job. Props to them! I think people really understimated them this year, and that's what I've been saying for a while. I think we can win this without turning Ron into a polished barbie doll like Bachmann or Romeny. Secondly, I think the economy is really starting to get people aware. The funny business in washington with the debt deal and the hopelessness of our economy is starting to sink in. From here, it's just going to snowball, and we will gain support.

Awesome news! Thanks to everyone!

[LiBeRtY4Eva]

We can do this. We will do it. Our founding fathers have authorized us the right to take our country back if taken away from us. Stick together everyone. Keep the faith alive and well. End the Fed!

[libertybrewcity]

Look at that man, the frontrunner.

[Sola_Fide]

Woot!

[sofia]

hate to be a downer....but doesn't "3rd place" mean that we lose?

just sayin......

[Gage]

hate to be a downer....but doesn't "3rd place" mean that we lose?

just sayin......
Not whenever it is an improvement over previous polls, and 6 months out from the actual election.

[JohnGalt23g]

So 49% of RP's supporters in Iowa (16%) won't vote for someone other than RP.

That translates to roughly 8% of the GOP vote in Nov '12.

In a tight race in Iowa, always one of the toss-up states, that could be huge. Pay attention, GOP. Pay attention, and pay it well.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

This! I bet they sit on this poll! Rasmussen is often quoted as the standard in polling companies with the Neocon talk show hosts. I say get it our for 'em. Make 'em eat it! Bahahahahha!Yeah, the first thing I thought about is how Fox will manipulate this result. They always report on Rasmussen polls. With Ames coming up shortly, they have to include this poll somehow.

[sofia]

Not whenever it is an improvement over previous polls, and 6 months out from the actual election.

but for a candidate who owns straw polls, it is discouraging that our well funded and well organized campaign cant even win Ames.

If we cant win little Ames, it tells me that the nutcase neo-con/Evangelical GOP is hopeless.

Best if Ron collects his 15% in the GOP primaries and then runs 3rd party against Perry/Obama.

[pauliticalfan]

^Are you kidding me? Who said we can't win Ames? It's still several days away.

[eleganz]

but for a candidate who owns straw polls, it is discouraging that our well funded and well organized campaign cant even win Ames.

If we cant win little Ames, it tells me that the nutcase neo-con/Evangelical GOP is hopeless.

Best if Ron collects his 15% in the GOP primaries and then runs 3rd party against Perry/Obama.

For having 3k posts on these forums, you should know that Paul isn't running third nor is it a viable option to win Presidency. This is a 2 party system and unfortunately, we must play it to win.

We can still win AMES, we just have to drill it into people's minds that Ron Paul is the one, everybody is panicking about the credit downgrade, interest rates going up, stock market tumbling, and global instability. He is the only one that can get us on the right fiscal path, we just need people to understand this.

[Praetorius]

but for a candidate who owns straw polls, it is discouraging that our well funded and well organized campaign cant even win Ames.

If we cant win little Ames, it tells me that the nutcase neo-con/Evangelical GOP is hopeless.

Agreed, but also remember how these polls are done and who they are polling - usually only former republican voters with landlines. The majority of Paul's support is younger crowd usually w/out landlines, as well as new & independent/non-former republican voters.

I'm hoping those factors come into play STRONGLY here and show how skewed traditional polling is, and how it's really only effective at altering perceptions instead of accurately representing current ones.

[eleganz]

Agreed, but also remember how these polls are done and who they are polling - usually only former republican voters with landlines. The majority of Paul's support is younger crowd usually w/out landlines, as well as new & independent/non-former republican voters.

I'm hoping those factors come into play STRONGLY here and show how skewed traditional polling is, and how it's really only effective at altering perceptions instead of accurately representing current ones.

But will these young people really show their strength and be present to vote at the straw poll? That is the difference.

[trey4sports]

Agreed, but also remember how these polls are done and who they are polling - usually only former republican voters with landlines. The majority of Paul's support is younger crowd usually w/out landlines, as well as new & independent/non-former republican voters.

I'm hoping those factors come into play STRONGLY here and show how skewed traditional polling is, and how it's really only effective at altering perceptions instead of accurately representing current ones.

'08 proved that traditional polling is spot on.

With us being 6% out from the leader this early, i think we are in a REALLY good position.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Voting in a phone poll and actually showing up in Ames and paying to get in to vote are two different things. Romney's not even on the ballot is he? Everything I've heard is that Bachmann's organization is poor, so I really doubt she can motivate voters like we can. I don't even think she has the money to get people there.

[Gage]

Romney's not even on the ballot is he?

Yes, he is.

[scrosnoe]

sharing now!

[trey4sports]

Voting in a phone poll and actually showing up in Ames and paying to get in to vote are two different things. Romney's not even on the ballot is he? Everything I've heard is that Bachmann's organization is poor, so I really doubt she can motivate voters like we can. I don't even think she has the money to get people there.

rather than pay for busing she is having supporters carpool. A strategy that i don't think will yield great results. At the same time, i think she will do well because of the large evangelical base in Iowa.

I believe that Ron will win though, and i say that as someone who is objective and dabbles in political futures (recreational). I just think his base is too strong and there is too much enthusiasm among his supporters.

[HarryBrowneLives]

'08 proved that traditional polling is spot on.

With us being 6% out from the leader this early, i think we are in a REALLY good position.

Hafta remember too (half the reason I LUVVV this) is Scott Rasmussen's polls are held up as the Gold Standard for GOP polling by the Establishment types because they almost always poll only "likely Republican voters". What they won't tell you, with our strength with Indy's in particular ... within 5% of the "frontrunners" ... we're really tied. Couple that with our ability to create turnout ... all bets are off now.

[HarryBrowneLives]

Come on in Rick Perry and Julie Annie the water's fine!:p

[specsaregood]

This! I bet they sit on this poll! Rasmussen is often quoted as the standard in polling companies with the Neocon talk show hosts. I say get it our for 'em. Make 'em eat it! Bahahahahha!

The key to remember is that those talk show hosts want Obama to win again. Seriously.

[trey4sports]

Hafta remember too (half the reason I LUVVV this) is Scott Rasmussen's polls are held up as the Gold Standard for GOP polling by the Establishment types because they almost always poll only "likely Republican voters". What they won't tell you, with our strength with Indy's in particular ... within 5% of the "frontrunners" ... we're really tied. Couple that with our ability to create turnout ... all bets are off now.

i still think that the we might be a couple points outside of first realistically (at this point) but i would agree that Rasmussen and other pollsters are doing their best to mold opinion rather than be objective since it's early and they wont be held accountable for their numbers.

[RonPaulRules]

Where is the link to the poll results?

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Yes, he is.Crap! ;) Well, not too many people are excited about him, so there's that.

[Agorism]

What's the point to waiting until Monday to post the results yet you announce them verbally in the middle of the afternoon the day before.

[trey4sports]

What's the point to waiting until Monday to post the results yet you announce them verbally in the middle of the afternoon the day before.

because the news cycle is Monday through Friday. Usually polling firms will release bad news on a Friday and good news on a Monday because the monday placement will get more talking time than the Friday placement.

[Agorism]

Wonder what time he releases tomorrow.

[KEEF]

Yeah, the first thing I thought about is how Fox will manipulate this result. They always report on Rasmussen polls. With Ames coming up shortly, they have to include this poll somehow.

Here's how...
"In the latest Rasmussen poll numbers out for the Ames Straw poll, Michele Bachmann came in first with 22% and Mitt Romney at second with 21%. Rick Perry came in respectfully with 12% of likely voters.":mad:

[Schiff_FTW]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x15NxuTu9VE&feature=player_embedded

[Texan4Life]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x15NxuTu9VE&feature=player_embedded

awesome!!!!!

someone refresh my memory.. what was RP in iowa poll last time?

[Agorism]

Last time 10%.

[Eric21ND]

This time last year, actually October 2007, Rasmussen had Ron Paul at 2% in Iowa.

[White Bear Lake]

OT: breaking but equally great. Gold hits 1700!

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

[Agorism]

This time last year, actually October 2007, Rasmussen had Ron Paul at 2% in Iowa.

Link lol?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html

You can see the RCP averages in 07 on this. In October Paul was 3% or so and went up to 7.4 as his highest percent by the end of it.

We're at 8.6% RCP average nationally right now so I guess that's an improvement although it's definitely and improvement over early RCP averages in 07'.

[Gage]

Though this poll wasn't conducted by Rasmussen, here is a poll from August 2007:

Mitt Romney 35%, Rudy Giuliani 12%, Fred Thompson 11%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Tom Tancredo 9%, John McCain 7%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 10%

[HarryBrowneLives]

Here's how...
"In the latest Rasmussen poll numbers out for the Ames Straw poll, Michele Bachmann came in first with 22% and Mitt Romney at second with 21%. Rick Perry came in respectfully with 12% of likely voters.":mad:

Actually, with all I've seen outta Faux. That wouldn't surprise me. ;)

[Agorism]

Any rasmussen ones lol?

[Gage]

Any rasmussen ones lol?

The oldest Rasmussen poll in Iowa is from October 2007:

Mitt Romney 25%, Fred Thompson 19%, Mike Huckabee 18%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, John McCain 6%, Sam Brownback 3%, Ron Paul 2%, Tom Tancredo 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 11%

[Agorism]

Paul on Intrade for Ames


Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
62.9%
CHANCE
Predict

Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
27.5%
CHANCE
Predict

Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
15.9%
CHANCE
Predict

[Karsten]

The oldest Rasmussen poll in Iowa is from October 2007:

Mitt Romney 25%, Fred Thompson 19%, Mike Huckabee 18%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, John McCain 6%, Sam Brownback 3%, Ron Paul 2%, Tom Tancredo 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 11%

What was the polling right before the Iowa STRAW POLL back in 2007? If it's 2% or less, we should remember that we did a lot better in the actual straw poll, where we got 9.1%.

And this time, polling at 16%, with the campaign putting exponentially more resources into it?
I can't watch on Saturday. Too much pressure. Somebody call me and tell me what happened!

[Agorism]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnbiRDNaDeo&playnext=1&list=PL6EBF2E9D0EF3E317

Good song before bed.

[tsai3904]

What was the polling right before the Iowa STRAW POLL back in 2007? If it's 2% or less, we should remember that we did a lot better in the actual straw poll, where we got 9.1%.

ABC News / Washington Post Iowa GOP Presidential Caucus Poll

Iowa (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/04/AR2007080401380_pf.html)
7/26 - 7/31/07 (11 days before straw poll)
402 likely caucus voters
+/-5.0%

Romney 26%
Giuliani 14%
F Thompson 13%
Huckabee 8%
McCain 8%
Brownback 5%
Tancredo 5%
T Thompson 4%
Paul 2%
Hunter 1%

[Gage]

Caffeinated Thoughts, a top political blog in Iowa, commenting on the results:

http://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2011/08/new-rasmussen-iowa-caucus-poll-and-my-personal-straw-poll-prediction/


Clearly this is great news for Paul, climbing at just the right moment, a week before the straw poll takes place. And he has yet to experience the Rand-bump, as his tea party favorite son comes to visit at least two days this week.


Paul will claim victory, and rightly so for winning, but will be largely dismissed despite the win. A straw poll win may be indicative of his hard core supporters coming out to support him, but keep in mind that the Rasmussen Poll is of mainstream everyday Republicans not just hard core crazy supporters. His support among mainstream Republicans is rising and he can’t be dismissed much longer.

[GunnyFreedom]

Actually, with all I've seen outta Faux. That wouldn't surprise me. ;)

It would surprise me if that WASN'T how it gets reported, actually.

[lucky_bg]

Caffeinated Thoughts, a top political blog in Iowa, commenting on the results:

http://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2011/08/new-rasmussen-iowa-caucus-poll-and-my-personal-straw-poll-prediction/

You forget to add this:



Finally my personal shot in the dark prediction for the Iowa Straw Poll. Note this is my personal prediction, not that of Caffeinated Thoughts. It is just fun to look back on afterwards:
Paul 24%
Bachmann 22%
Pawlenty 17%
Romney 8%
Perry (write in) 7%
Santorum 7%
Palin (write in) 5%
Gingrich 5%
Cain 3%
McCotter 1%
Huntsman 1%

[pauliticalfan]

If RP does indeed win the straw poll, which should be our main focus from now until then, then this poll would validate a win. It shows that he has solid, rising support among traditional GOP voters and not just a "small core of supporters."

[Justinfrom1776]

I'm just waiting for Michele Bachmann's Howard Dean moment when she says something so insane that it will drive a large portion of her support over to our side.

[Justinfrom1776]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9bvreW08X0

I posted this on her facebook earlier.

[economics102]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9bvreW08X0

I posted this on her facebook earlier.

It really is amazing that her and Sarah Palin can get taken seriously.

[Justinfrom1776]

Sometimes I wonder if she is really a robot sent by democrats to destroy the Tea Party.

[Article V]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnbiRDNaDeo&playnext=1&list=PL6EBF2E9D0EF3E317

Good song before bed.You're supporting Ron Paul AND you're referencing an obscure musical? Paint Your Wagon and come over! I think I just fell in love.

[Elwar]

The polls are starting to correct themselves. Ron Paul will be in 1st in time for Ames, lest the pollsters act shocked.

As for being third...that is not a bad spot to be in for a while.

Remember, when he is 1st and even throughout his presidency, he will be the target. We will be his defenders. That can wear anybody down after a while.

The first couple of years of Ronald Reagan's presidency were horrible as he made the tough corrective decisions necessary to turn things around after Carter. Ron Paul will need our support through that.

[KEEF]

...

The article got released on the Rasmussen Report web page this morning. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_bachmann_romney_and_paul_on_top

I sent it on to Drudge, please do as well.


Overall, just 28% of potential Iowa Caucus participants are absolutely certain of how they will vote, while the rest could change their mind. Among those who are certain of their vote, Ron Paul is on top at 27%.

Like it has been said time and time again by people, RP's support is unwavering. Momentum is picking up...keep on spreading the word, 72% of Iowa voters haven't made up their minds yet; we are going to win Iowa. :D

[pauladin]

how much are the TV ads helping?

[John Ames]

Let's get 1st place

[SilentBull]

Does anyone have a link to the April poll that had Ron at 10%? I can't find it on the Rasmussen site.

[sailingaway]

Hm. I might wait to find a better article to drudge bomb with. This one goes into 'it is important to note' and says RP supporters draw 'significantly from Democrats' when the point is just that the two parties at the establishment level vary on little but rhetoric. Only Ron offers a better direction. They are trying to put this into red team blue team stuff, and go into DEMOCRATS when the point is independents, and the one who wins the general election is going to have to win independents. Ron Paul dominates there.

[wgadget]

Looks like it's official...On Drudge:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_bachmann_romney_and_paul_on_top

[Indiana4Paul]

Among those who are certain of their vote, Ron Paul is on top at 27%.

If it is 6 months out and you are in first place amongst those that are certain of their vote, then you are in first place PERIOD. The rest of this is just B.S.

This is incredible news to start what I think will be a game-changing week.

[cdc482]

To say he's within striking distance is an understandment. He is behind by 6%. This means he needs an extra 450 votes to win. (.06 * 7 500 = 450)

We can totally get another 450 votes between now and then. We need to start making phonecalls!!! Who is with me?

[TJMadison]

Just heard it on Rasmussen:)

49% say that they may not vote for the Republican if RP is not nominated

but

Ron Paul has the most solid support among all the candidates

I've consistently voted for every Republican candidate for president since 1972. I even voted for George H.W. Bush over Ross Perot in '96. When the GOP front-runners in 2008 were Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain, I realized that there was no one that I could honestly vote for. But then, on October 9, 2011, during the GOP debate in Detriot, moderator Chris Matthews asked Ron Paul the following question:

CHRIS MATTHEWS: Congressman Paul, do you promise to support the nominee of the Republican Party next year?

RON PAUL: Not right now I don't. Not unless they're willing to end the war and bring our troops home. And not unless they are willing to look at the excess in spending. No, I'm not going to support them if they continue down the path that has taken our party down the tubes.

That night, I realized that there actually was a candidate in that primary that was actually worth voting for. I did not vote for John McCain in the primary or general election in 2008. The only Republican that I will vote for the in the 2012 primary and general election is Ron Paul - I have notified the RNC of this fact via email.

[fatjohn]

I think most of those going to ames are certain about who they are going to vote. And if Ron jumps 11 percent from all people to certain people, chances are bachmann, romney and pawlenty are going down. This means a +5% lead. Anybody accessed the raw data?

[dusman]

Anyone catching any news about this? So far I've only seen it on Drudge. Other than that, it's completely a no-mention so far.

[sailingaway]

Anyone catching any news about this? So far I've only seen it on Drudge. Other than that, it's completely a no-mention so far.

Dallas morning news is covering 'Perry in fourth' and a Florida paper had it. I thought it was in the Des Moines register, but I'm not sure.

[Ball]

Interesting comments about the poll on this page: http://race42012.com/2011/08/07/poll-watch-gop-iowa-caucus-rasmussen/#comments

Dammit, I couldn't refrain from posting my two cents. Oh well