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View Full Version : WTF @ the order of these Quinnipiac poll results?!?!?




muzzled dogg
08-05-2011, 03:49 PM
Romney 23
Perry 13
Palin 9
Bachmann 6
Cain 8
Paul 9
Gingrich 4
Pawlenty 3
Huntsman 1


????


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/08/05/obama_extending_unemployment_benefits_will_help_cr eate_jobs_right_now.html

swissaustrian
08-05-2011, 03:50 PM
Cognitive warfare against Ron?

sailingaway
08-05-2011, 03:56 PM
Yeah, I saw one the other day like that too. It was in numerical order, except for Ron's which wasn't even last, but second to last.

So with that and Harris, Ron is second, or tied for second, in two of the most recent national polls, out of announced candidates.

pauliticalfan
08-05-2011, 03:57 PM
Who cares about the order?

Let's look at the numbers compared to last month's Quinnipiac poll: Romney's gone down 2 points, Bachmann's TANKED 8 points, while Ron Paul's gone up 4 points. Paul's improved more than any other candidate from their last poll.

Sounds good to me.

bluesc
08-05-2011, 04:01 PM
Yeah, this isn't purely some anti-Ron Paul thing, looking at their "latest polls" page, in almost every poll, Perry is ahead of Bachmann in numbers, but she is listed as 2nd to Romney in all of them.

sailingaway
08-05-2011, 04:05 PM
Yeah, this isn't purely some anti-Ron Paul thing, looking at their "latest polls" page, in almost every poll, Perry is ahead of Bachmann in numbers, but she is listed as 2nd to Romney in all of them.

Hey! Welcome to the forum and thanks for giving me the Rasmussen poll to post the other day, while you were being approved. +rep for that.

I'm thinking they set their list on an old poll and now just stick with it? Which is weird, kinda.

bluesc
08-05-2011, 04:13 PM
Hey! Welcome to the forum and thanks for giving me the Rasmussen poll to post the other day, while you were being approved. +rep for that.

I'm thinking they set their list on an old poll and now just stick with it? Which is weird, kinda.

Thanks :)!

Yeah, after looking back over it, that seems to be what they are doing. I'll try to email them, as a lot of people might just scan the order of names. Totally misleading.

BUSHLIED
08-05-2011, 04:14 PM
they ordered it by the RCP averages...so in this poll he is higher but on average he sits at 6th place in FL...

sailingaway
08-05-2011, 04:23 PM
they ordered it by the RCP averages...so in this poll he is higher but on average he sits at 6th place in FL...

Not for long, I suspect.

harikaried
08-05-2011, 04:34 PM
Let's look at the numbers compared to last month's Quinnipiac poll: Romney's gone down 2 points, Bachmann's TANKED 8 points, while Ron Paul's gone up 4 points. Paul's improved more than any other candidate from their last poll.But that's comparing to a different state's results, no?

Here are the recent results for just Florida Presidential Primary:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

Romney: 27 -> 23: -4
Perry: 0 -> 13: +13
Palin: 17 -> 9: -8
Bachmann: 17 -> 6: -11
Cain: 10 -> 8: -2
Paul: 7 -> 9: +2
Gingrich: 8 -> 4: -4
Pawlenty: 4 -> 3: -1
Huntsman: 2 -> 1: -1

pauliticalfan
08-05-2011, 04:47 PM
But that's comparing to a different state's results, no?

Here are the recent results for just Florida Presidential Primary:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html

Romney: 27 -> 23: -4
Perry: 0 -> 13: +13
Palin: 17 -> 9: -8
Bachmann: 17 -> 6: -11
Cain: 10 -> 8: -2
Paul: 7 -> 9: +2
Gingrich: 8 -> 4: -4
Pawlenty: 4 -> 3: -1
Huntsman: 2 -> 1: -1

My bad, I thought this was a national primary poll, not just for Florida. OP should probably clarify. The last national Quinnipiac poll was done exactly one month ago, so they're due to release a new one soon. Guess we'll see where things stand then.

BUSHLIED
08-05-2011, 09:14 PM
In terms of national polling, I don't expect Paul to "surge..." Generally speaking he is now a known quantity among reliable gop primary voters with fairly high name recognition...my sense is that he slowly marches up point by point going into 2012 as he picks up independents and disaffected voters who start to tune in the election. My best guess is that he is around 14%-15% by 2012. Probably sitting fourth among the field with Perry in the race and as Bachmann takes a hit from the SP loss to Paul and as debate performances get into policies about the economy, particularly now that the US credit rating has been downgraded and more bailouts may be on the horizon. Ron is the candidate that is going to have the answers in this debates and the only one with a record that backs him up. Should he choose to emphasize this in the debates, I think he picks up support.

The biggest weakness of Ron Paul is the public perception that he is 'unelectable.'

Sidenote, I was just in a liqueur store picking up some Jack and as I walk in, a customer says to the owner (who is staunch REP type and I am working on converting him) "Gold is now $1600" and I say, you should have listened to Ron Paul, the customer looks at me and says you are right I should have listened to that 'nutjob' Paul...the owner agrees, asks, "Did Ron recommend buying gold?" I said, yeah about 30 years ago...then he starts talking about Perry getting in and how he likes Bachmann but that she can't beat Obama etc...he doesn't like Romney at all...

Any how my prediction
Double digits:

Romney- ~25%
Perry- ~20%
Bachmann-~18%
Paul- ~15%

Cain, Pawlenty, Gingrich all still in single digits if they don't drop out due to lack of funds by 2012.

Anyway, my point is that Ron will still be in striking distance in many states with proportional allocation to pick up delegates as he comes in second or third. Other than WV and LA, I can't think of a State that Ron is going to win outright with Perry in the race...my hope is that he is able to come in second in PA and OH...or any of the other swing states. Should he be competitive in swing states, his support will grow. Anyone know about CO? I wonder if Ron has any chance there.

sailingaway
08-05-2011, 10:03 PM
I think Perry is going to crater spectacularly.