Fallout from Ames?

[Harry96]

I'm curious for predictions for the fallout from Ames from everyone here who, like me, likes to play amateur political handicapper.

Two things I see as very likely:

Santorum drops out. He's still at 1-2%.

Pawlenty drops out, unless he wins. He's been built up by the media for months, even being frequently called the alternative to Romney, but he's still at 2-3%.

(As I recall, Alexander and Quayle both quit after poor showings in 1999. That doesn't mean history always repeats exactly, but it shows that a poor showing in Ames can make someone decide that their campaign isn't going anywhere.)

Other possibilities:

My dream scenario, of course, is for Ron to win, with second a distant second. But I'm not predicting that, and I don't know what will happen. These aren't original observations, but anything less than third is a disaster; third is barely okay; second is okay; first is awesome and probably a game-changer, especially if it's by a pretty wide margin. I expect Ron to see a pretty big bump in the polls if that happens, and he's already averaging about 9% -- and is only about 5% from being second nationally, behind Romney.

I wouldn't mind to see Cain quit; he seems to petering out, with his average poll number now under 7%.

Bachmann isn't going anywhere, of course, but I think she's losing momentum too. If Ron wins and gets a big bump in the polls, some of it could definitely be drawn from her. I'd love to see Ron really go after her in next week's debate and try to expose her as the pale imitation of him that she is.

Of course, no other major candidates are trying to win in Ames.

It's easy to say you want others to drop out and thin the field, but don't forget that the establishment will never stop trying to crowd the field to drown out Ron; if one of the alleged front-runners quits, someone else will be recruited. I wouldn't be surprised if Huntsman was recruited after the attempts to build up Pawlenty flopped. Now Perry is apparently getting in. That strategy is like the quip Butler Shaffer made on the LewRockwell.com blog, about a store owner hiring a bunch of clowns to do tricks around the picketers in front of his store; the picketers are still there, but their message is drowned out.

The exciting thing is, unlike in 2007, it doesn't seem to be working this time.

[sailingaway]

It will be interesting to see how much of those people got to commit before Bachmann announced stay with 'their guy', as in Cain or Santorum. Both were in there plugging early. Perry and Romney will show 'better than expected' particularly Perry who has a huge under the radar push for a write in campaign. (Romney might do better than Perry, but that would be expected.)

It will be interesting to see.

[The Dark Knight]

I think Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann will both have very good showings and it will be very close for first. Maybe a 100 vote margin or less between the two. Pawlenty will get distant 3rd. So basically the top two will get the attention out of ames. I think the top two will end up with at least 4,000 votes while no one else breaks 2,500. The results will show that once again the tea party is for real. I just hope and pray we get first.

[sailingaway]

I think Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann will both have very good showings and it will be very close for first. Maybe a 100 vote margin or less between the two. Pawlenty will get distant 3rd. So basically the top two will get the attention out of ames. I think the top two will end up with at least 4,000 votes while no one else breaks 2,500. The results will show that once again the tea party is for real. I just hope and pray we get first.

100 votes is very small. Bachmann is favored to win. I don't like guessing because of course I WANT Ron to win, but don't see much fun in evaluating in advance other possibilities.

[Harry96]

I think Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann will both have very good showings and it will be very close for first. Maybe a 100 vote margin or less between the two. Pawlenty will get distant 3rd. So basically the top two will get the attention out of ames. I think the top two will end up with at least 4,000 votes while no one else breaks 2,500. The results will show that once again the tea party is for real. I just hope and pray we get first.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm curious where you're getting this math.

If you look at the previous years' results on Wikipedia, Romney won in 2007 with 4,516 votes, and Bush won in 1999 7,418 votes, obviously from a higher turnout than in 2007. Ron only got 1,305 votes in 2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ames_Straw_Poll

So how do you figure that the top two combined might only get about 4,000 votes? Is there something about expected lower turnout, stricter requirements to vote, etc. this year that I'm unaware of?

[sailingaway]

I wouldn't put too much in specifics here. I haven't gotten that one yet. Looks like we need to go phone banking.

[Elwar]

If Ron Paul wins, the big news for the next few months will be how Florida is holding an early primary vote and that whoever wins that state will be the leader.

As much effort will be put on discounting Iowa as possible.

[CaptUSA]

I expect Santorum to drop out. I expect Pawlenty to keep on until the early caucuses. Cain will hang on for a little while, but will fizzle fast.

I expect Bachman and Paul to do very well. I expect Bachman will gain some press, Paul will gain very little.

I expect Perry to announce shortly after Ames saying the results indicate people are not satisfied with the field. (Obviously. How else could Paul win?) That announcement will steal any thunder from the Ames poll.

[Harry96]

I wouldn't put too much in specifics here. I haven't gotten that one yet. Looks like we need to go phone banking.

I don't see why, nor do I see the point of deleting from my post the projections from the campaign, although that's your prerogative as a mod. But, to clear the record, I wasn't talking out of school by revealing a private memo; the numbers were in a public email that Trevor Lyman sent two hours ago to everyone on the campaign's mailing list.

[Harry96]

I don't see why, nor do I see the point of deleting from my post the projections from the campaign, although that's your prerogative as a mod. But, to clear the record, I wasn't talking out of school by revealing a private memo; the numbers were in a public email that Trevor Lyman sent two hours ago to everyone on the campaign's mailing list.

My bad. I just looked again, and the message was from the Liberty and Prosperity Pac, written by John Dennis with the sender showing as Trevor Lyman. So I guess it wasn't from the official campaign; I have a hard time keeping track of who officially works for the campaign and who's just grassroots, and of which email lists I belong to. But it was a public message, not a private memo from someone I know personally. Even so, I won't mention any specific numbers again.

[Harry96]

Also, since it was apparently not from the official campaign, they may have meant that they think that their pac can add that many votes for Ron, in addition to the numbers the campaign draws and the numbers other grassroots people recruit, and the total should be enough to win. That makes a lot more sense.

[sailingaway]

I will note that in 2010 only about half the people C4L actually bought tickets for for SRLC voted for him, and this time they have vouchers to be redeemed at the event, and we have yet to see the show up rate. I'll hope for first, but I don't want to raise expectations above what Ron has said he is hoping for, to be in the top three. A note I read today about the last two people who finished third dropping out in a couple of months was rather depressing, however, I must say..... on the other hand, those two (Dole etc) were people who were favored going in.

It is all about beating expectations. I'm glad your numbers weren't from the campaign, though!

[ProBlue33]

As I look at the past results, I realize that it's not actually where you finish that counts but how many votes you get. So if Ron gets less than 3000 votes, based on the massive effort going into this compared to last time, it would be a failure that does not bode well for the future.

[speciallyblend]

i expect the failed GOP leadership to do everything they can to elect obama by marginalizing Ron Paul!

[shipwreckedsailor]

Do the best we can, thats all we can do. Talk to your friend's and send what you can. It all will count in the end ! Make sure everybody is registered to VOTE ! And find out when the primary in YOUR state is ! Sign's , Sign's , Sign's ...........

[boneyard bill]

I'd like to see Paul win comfortably, but not too hugely. If he wins say 7,500 to Bachmann's 3,000; the media will simply portray that even more as "just a straw poll" victory and clearly not indicative of Paul's real popularity.

I think Paul and Bachmann are the only ones who can survive a disappointing showing in the straw poll. They are the only ones who rely on small contributors. The other candidates won't be able to raise money. Whether they officially drop out or not will be irrelevant. Most large contributors see their donations as an "investment," and if the candidate doesn't appear to be spending the money effectively, they will quit giving.

[Billay]

I could see Ron Paul winning and Fox News interupts with breaking news that sources say Rick Perry is about to enter the race in a month.

[Chieppa1]

I could see Ron Paul winning and Fox News interupts with breaking news that sources say Rick Perry is about to enter the race in a month.

Wooo, you just blew my mind. Are you from the future? +rep.

[trey4sports]

I think dream scenario would be Pawlenty and Bachmann losing to Paul by a couple hundred votes. If Ron blows them out of the water it will make it easier for pundits to downplay the signifigance of the straw poll. However, i think the main thing that will come out of this is that Santorum and Pawlenty begin to wither away.

[sailingaway]

I could see Ron Paul winning and Fox News interupts with breaking news that sources say Rick Perry is about to enter the race in a month.

I am absolutely sure that even if they let Ron have his day (if he were to win) that they'd say it didn't mean much because Perry isn't in yet, Romney and Huntsman didn't get into the straw poll, etc. And then when Perry announces that will be all the news covers.

[sailingaway]

I think dream scenario would be Pawlenty and Bachmann losing to Paul by a couple hundred votes. If Ron blows them out of the water it will make it easier for pundits to downplay the signifigance of the straw poll. However, i think the main thing that will come out of this is that Santorum and Pawlenty begin to wither away.

I think Ron blowing them out of the water would show he can blow them out of the water. I don't think it is likely given how much Pawlenty and Bachmann have thrown at the straw poll, but I wouldn't consider it a flaw if he trounced them.

[Billay]

I am absolutely sure that even if they let Ron have his day (if he were to win) that they'd say it didn't mean much because Perry isn't in yet, Romney and Huntsman didn't get into the straw poll, etc. And then when Perry announces that will be all the news covers.


Exactly. Don't let them piss on our parade though the straw poll is very important to Iowans and we'll see a bump.

[lynnf]

look out for Perry, he's mounting a write-in campaign. if nothing comes of it he can claim he was hampered by not being on the ballot. if he does well, he can crow about it.

[sailingaway]

look out for Perry, he's mounting a write-in campaign. if nothing comes of it he can claim he was hampered by not being on the ballot. if he does well, he can crow about it.

Crow is a very apt metaphor for Perry.