Iowa Watch: Presidential Strength Test Coming

[sailingaway]

http://missouri-news.org/midwest-news/nebraska/iowa-watch-presidential-strength-test-coming/7135

Bachmann has been working with the tea parties since at least January in Iowa, so I don't believe the downplaying of her 'only one month old' organization at all, however. She played the 'I didn't try at all' card in Minnesota before wins there, as I understand it, and suspect that is what is happening here.

[Maximus]

She was wise to vote against the Boehner bill, people will give her props for that even though she just did it for the politics.

[sailingaway]

Yeah. She voted for the Ryan plan which would require the debt ceiling be raised for 20 years straight, but when she saw how the debt ceiling was playing, she changed her tune.

[Napoleon's Shadow]

http://missouri-news.org/midwest-news/nebraska/iowa-watch-presidential-strength-test-coming/7135

Bachmann has been working with the tea parties since at least January in Iowa, so I don't believe the downplaying of her 'only one month old' organization at all, however. She played the 'I didn't try at all' card in Minnesota before wins there, as I understand it, and suspect that is what is happening here.
Yeah I think we'll likely come in 2nd place. There is a chance we could come in 3rd, and a chance we could also win. Dunno but a solid 2nd place finish is very probable.

[sailingaway]

Dang. Then I really need to make some more calls.

[trey4sports]

Yeah I think we'll likely come in 2nd place. There is a chance we could come in 3rd, and a chance we could also win. Dunno but a solid 2nd place finish is very probable.

Although it wouldn't kill us, and im sure the campaign would play up a "2nd place finish" it would be very disheartening IMO

[FSP-Rebel]

I sure would like to know some of what's going on at the IA hq in regards to phone banking and gotv for Ames. Like, are people showing up en masse daily to make calls or is that effort mostly being left to decentralized activists around the country..? Not like I expect a public answer but I'm wondering how the logistics and such are panning out for the straw poll and how the signup rates are going. Obviously, the campaign is keeping their cards close to the vest and they've clearly been at it for a while now, just the unknown is kinda bugging me.

[sailingaway]

Of course it bugs us, but even if we knew we wouldn't know unless we had numbers on the other candidates. And we wouldn't want the campaign to give other campaigns that information.

[trey4sports]

One theory could go along the lines of..... the more wesay that were gunning for 1st the less emphasis the media will put on the win when we, well, win. If it looks as though it is a horse race between the top 3 campaigns then it will be given much more credence.

[sailingaway]

Or that the campaign thinks second would be really good, at this stage and doesn't want the grass roots disappointed. I'm thinking about what Ron said the other day at one of his events, that he wished he could say we were the frontrunner, but he thinks we will do very well, and we might win... and he said it like it was a possibility, maybe. Not a probability.

[trey4sports]

Or that the campaign thinks second would be really good, at this stage and doesn't want the grass roots disappointed. I'm thinking about what Ron said the other day at one of his events, that he wished he could say we were the frontrunner, but he thinks we will do very well, and we might win... and he said it like it was a possibility, maybe. Not a probability.

yeah, i remember that speech as well. I hope we can do it

[RP Supporter]

I think Paul will either finish second or first. The only other two candidates who realistically have any shot or Romney and Pawlenty. Romney skipping Ames is only going to alienate people, so he won't win. He'll get a good margin but won't be in the top 3 IMHO. Everyone keeps pushing Pawlenty, but he has next to no support. I suppose if he spends a lot of money he'd have a shot, but it's a steeper road for him to climb then us or Bachmann. Also, if you look at his campaign's statements, it sounds almost like the campaign is playing for third, saying the straw poll needs to "show the campaign has made progress". That does not sound like someone thinking they have a decent chance at winning.

I'm not sure who would win between Paul and Bachmann though. I'd like to say Paul, but Bachmann is out polling him, and right now at least she has more support. But the campaign does have the best booth and position on the straw poll, and has far more experience winning these things then she does. And the Paul campaign is the only one competing who really competed in Ames before. I think in the end those things will be the trump card in our favor.

[trey4sports]

I think Paul will either finish second or first. The only other two candidates who realistically have any shot or Romney and Pawlenty. Romney skipping Ames is only going to alienate people, so he won't win. He'll get a good margin but won't be in the top 3 IMHO. Everyone keeps pushing Pawlenty, but he has next to no support. I suppose if he spends a lot of money he'd have a shot, but it's a steeper road for him to climb then us or Bachmann. Also, if you look at his campaign's statements, it sounds almost like the campaign is playing for third, saying the straw poll needs to "show the campaign has made progress". That does not sound like someone thinking they have a decent chance at winning.


I'm not sure who would win between Paul and Bachmann though. I'd like to say Paul, but Bachmann is out polling him, and right now at least she has more support. But the campaign does have the best booth and position on the straw poll, and has far more experience winning these things then she does. And the Paul campaign is the only one competing who really competed in Ames before. I think in the end those things will be the trump card in our favor.

Good points, and I would also add that the mailer they sent out is legit.

[sailingaway]

The fair tax people got Huckabee his votes last time, he had no organization to speak of, and they will be there, and they consider Ron 'further down on their list' than MB from what I read, thinking he won't make a big push of their issue. Bachmann is having huge 'meet me in Ames' events now, and may make up a slow start, and she has the 'frontrunner' pull with those who just happen to be going anyhow. Romney had a telephone call joined by 10,000 people he had numbers for from the last campaign saying that while he was not making a push at the straw poll they were welcome to go and write him in. Remember, he didn't have to 'identify' anyone, he had these numbers in his system from winning last time. I understand Perry has been organizing a write in push.

The only good thing about all this 'under the radar' activity is that it is by various different candidates, not all in favor of one. But Ron will have his work cut out for him. All we can do is do our best and hope for the best.

[trey4sports]

The fair tax people got Huckabee his votes last time, he had no organization to speak of, and they will be there, and they consider Ron 'further down on their list' than MB from what I read, thinking he won't make a big push of their issue. Bachmann is having huge 'meet me in Ames' events now, and may make up a slow start, and she has the 'frontrunner' pull with those who just happen to be going anyhow. Romney had a telephone call joined by 10,000 people he had numbers for from the last campaign saying that while he was not making a push at the straw poll they were welcome to go and write him in. Remember, he didn't have to 'identify' anyone, he had these numbers in his system from winning last time. I understand Perry has been organizing a write in push.

The only good thing about all this 'under the radar' activity is that it is by various different candidates, not all in favor of one. But Ron will have his work cut out for him. All we can do is do our best and hope for the best.


Romney is on the ballot, no need to write him in.

[Esoteric]

All we can do is do our best and hope for the best.

We're doing quite a bit of the latter, and not NEARLY enough of the former.

[KingRobbStark]

I hate the fact that Ames is scheduled in August. If it was on September, then we would have focused on the colleges campuses and encouraged a lot more people to attend.

[The Dark Knight]

Winning is definitely possible but we also got to remember that even if we get 2nd Perry will jump in the race and take a lot of votes from Bachmann come Caucus time. Huckabee got 2nd last time in the straw poll and won the Caucus so its not the end of the campaign as some have said if we lose Ames. That being said, Winning only helps our cause so lets go for the win :)

[sailingaway]

I hate the fact that Ames is scheduled in August. If it was on September, then we would have focused on the colleges campuses and encouraged a lot more people to attend.

I know. I'm remembering the drop off in event attendance in the summer for Rand's events during his senate campaign.


Romney is on the ballot, no need to write him in.

You are right; I blanked. Perry is having a write in campaign and I have seen both that Palin is and isn't.

[Bruno]

I sure would like to know some of what's going on at the IA hq in regards to phone banking and gotv for Ames. Like, are people showing up en masse daily to make calls or is that effort mostly being left to decentralized activists around the country..? Not like I expect a public answer but I'm wondering how the logistics and such are panning out for the straw poll and how the signup rates are going. Obviously, the campaign is keeping their cards close to the vest and they've clearly been at it for a while now, just the unknown is kinda bugging me.

You could call or email Steve Bierfeldt and I'm sure he would provide you answers to your questions.

[sailingaway]

Winning is definitely possible but we also got to remember that even if we get 2nd Perry will jump in the race and take a lot of votes from Bachmann come Caucus time. Huckabee got 2nd last time in the straw poll and won the Caucus so its not the end of the campaign as some have said if we lose Ames. That being said, Winning only helps our cause so lets go for the win :)

I agree it isn't the end if we don't win, the 'new kid in town' bump is still working through all the candidates with few doing serious vetting yet. Perry is destined to get it next, nausea inducing as that thought might be. Intrade, for example, has Bachmann as 70%+ to win Ames but about 7% chance of winning the nomination. But we would like to win Ames, ourself. Ron's odds in intrade are down to 14% from 20% earlier for winning Ames. Mind you, intrade is highly manipulable at this point due to low volume.

[trey4sports]

To me, it just seems as though this is the perfect opportunity to generate some momentum and finally get some damn respect.

Unfortunately, if we DON'T win Ames then that "Ron Paul can't win" stigma doesn't go away. Now that isn't to say that we WOULD get the respect we deserve if we win, but I'd be willing to bet that it would jump our numbers in Iowa substantially - 5% or more - and Iowans would take the campaign much more seriously.

[realtonygoodwin]

The stigma is "Ron Paul can't win elections, only straw polls." And his congressional district doesn't count. Got to win states and electoral votes.

[sailingaway]

The stigma is "Ron Paul can't win elections, only straw polls." And his congressional district doesn't count. Got to win states and electoral votes.

And his polling tied for first for a Senate seat in Texas when he hadn't even thrown his hat in the ring doesn't count either. Essentially, if he does it 'it doesn't count'.

trey, we know it would be a boost to win. We want to. But so does everyone else. Right now we all need to phone bank, or we sure can't complain the campaign hasn't done enough if we don't win.

[Esoteric]

The stigma is "Ron Paul can't win elections, only straw polls." And his congressional district doesn't count. Got to win states and electoral votes.

winning the Iowa straw poll makes someone a front runner winning a STATE (Iowa). Whether the media decides to tell it like it is, or whether they will ignore the fact entirely that only Iowans are allowed to vote is still to be seen.

[sailingaway]

We have to win it, though, and it was suggested that isn't likely, although it is possible, that a second is more likely, and it might be third.

We can hope it's a good debate, but we can't do anything about that and most of the organization has to be done before that. We have to generate interest in the For Liberty screening and get materials to the county fairs, imho.

[trey4sports]

winning the Iowa straw poll makes someone a front runner winning a STATE (Iowa). Whether the media decides to tell it like it is, or whether they will ignore the fact entirely that only Iowans are allowed to vote is still to be seen.

Right.

That goes to the heart of my point.... it doesn't really matter how the national media portrays the straw poll because Iowans put a lot of stock into it.