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View Full Version : Ron Paul in third (with 11%) of announced candidates in new Gallup poll




sailingaway
07-27-2011, 07:03 AM
When you add all of Palin Guiliani and Perry he drops below them, but the lead of others really narrows.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/jmlxawszheijmebahwbvtq.gif

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/ghqyapk8_06w1-trciwcia.gif

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Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 20-24, 2011, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,088 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/148664/Romney-Leads-Field-Announced-GOP-Candidates.aspx

zerosdontcount
07-27-2011, 07:11 AM
A million miles ahead of last campaign

jbuttell
07-27-2011, 07:33 AM
I'd like to understand Romney's lead, I just don't see anything to warrant such numbers. With Romney, is it his money or horrendous voting record that's keeping him at the front?

specsaregood
07-27-2011, 07:34 AM
With Romney, is it his money or horrendous voting record that's keeping him at the front?

Neither, want to try for a 3rd swing at it?

fatjohn
07-27-2011, 07:37 AM
Great top tier and second tier difference 8+ for Paul, Bachmann, Perry, Palin, Ghoul and Romney and 3- for Cain, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Huntsman and Santorum

sailingaway
07-27-2011, 07:43 AM
Great top tier and second tier difference 8+ for Paul, Bachmann, Perry, Palin, Ghoul and Romney and 3- for Cain, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Huntsman and Santorum

They'll say he's leading the bottom tier. They always do. They don't even mention him in the lead in language discussing 'announced candidates' even though he is in 3d with double digit support. When they talk about 'unannounced candidates' they drop down to considerably lower placement.

Eric21ND
07-27-2011, 07:45 AM
What that poll tells me is that we have to tout Ron Paul's conservative credentials more.

IndianaPolitico
07-27-2011, 09:30 AM
What that poll tells me is that we have to tout Ron Paul's conservative credentials more.

Well said, he has the most conservative record. We just need to get the message out there.

Cleaner44
07-27-2011, 09:40 AM
I'd like to understand Romney's lead, I just don't see anything to warrant such numbers. With Romney, is it his money or horrendous voting record that's keeping him at the front?

It is simple voting for his brand name. He is well known and not Obama. For all of our work Ron Paul still is not as well known yet.

gls
07-27-2011, 09:41 AM
Romney I can sort of understand, what with the hair and all, but who are all these people supporting Bachmann??

BenIsForRon
07-27-2011, 09:45 AM
I'd like to understand Romney's lead, I just don't see anything to warrant such numbers. With Romney, is it his money or horrendous voting record that's keeping him at the front?


Romney I can sort of understand, what with the hair and all, but who are all these people supporting Bachmann??


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xxgRUyzgs0

KEEF
07-27-2011, 09:48 AM
It is simple voting for his brand name. He is well known and not Obama. For all of our work Ron Paul still is not as well known yet.

...and he makes himself look pretty. I think he looks like an ass, but I guess some people think he carries that "presidential ambiance." Average sheeple are going to throw out the first name that comes to them, and who does FOX and all the other MSM only mention??? Oh yeah, the top five listed in the announced and unannounced.

Cleaner 44 is right, we need more name recognition; making sure that it is positive name recognition too. That is why Iowa is going to be so important. I wish I could vote in Iowa, but I guess Michigan will have to do.

KingRobbStark
07-27-2011, 09:51 AM
Why is romeny getting any support among moderates and liberals? Why is any candidate besides Ron get any support. Boggles my mind.

Fermli
07-27-2011, 09:54 AM
Breaking double digit percentages is a great sign. Can only go up from here... with bumps from the straw poll finish and Palin declaring she is out.

TJMadison
07-27-2011, 10:16 AM
Gallup polls, Jeffrey M. Jones, have consistently proven to be extremely unreliable when it comes to predicting the viability of presidential candidates. Here are 3 examples:

1: On April 22, 2011, approximately two months ago, Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones was reporting that Trump and Huckabee were setting the pace for the GOP. Jones, whom I suspect may be referencing planetary positions in the zodiac, tarot cards, tea leaves and Ouija boards in his polling process wrote:

"The April 15-20 Gallup poll finds Trump leading the field among moderate and liberal Republicans, with 21% supporting him. Huckabee is the leader among conservative Republicans. Huckabee's support and Trump's support differ between ideological groups, while Romney and Palin get similar support from both ideological wings of the party."

Source: Huckabee, Trump, Romney Set Pace for 2012 GOP Field
Trump leads among liberal and moderate Republicans
by Jeffrey M. Jones - April 22, 2011
http://www.gallup.com/poll/147233/huckabee-trump-romney-pace-gop-field-2012.aspx

2: On March 7, 2007, approximately 20 months prior to the 2008 election, Gallup was reporting that Giuliani was leading McCain by 24 percentage points. According to the Gallup poll, Clinton was the frontrunner on the Democrat side. Neither of them won their party's nomination. In his 2007 prognostication, Jones wrote:

"According to the March 2-4 poll, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they prefer Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, to be the party's 2008 presidential nominee. Arizona Sen. John McCain is second with 20%."

Source: Giuliani Solidifies Lead in Republican Nomination Poll Clinton still leads among Democrats
Jeffrey M. Jones - March 7, 2007
http://www.gallup.com/poll/27523/clinton-solidifies-lead-among-democrats-giuliani-still-tops-gop-field.aspx

3: Gallup ranked number 17 in a field of 23 pollsters in the accuracy of their final, national pre- election polls with respect to the 2008 presidential election results.

Source: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D., November 5, 2008
Department of Political Science, Fordham University http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%2 0election.pdf

I strongly recommend you avoid polls from Gallup, CNN, FOX, ABC and CBS. The most accurate pollster when it comes to presidential elections is Scott Rasmussen. Here is a comparison of the accuracy of Rasmussen in comparison to other major polls:

In the wake of the 2008 presidential election, Rasmussen ranked number 1 in a field of 23 polls in predicting the actual results of the race between McCain and Obama.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls.

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Source: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%2 0election.pdf

On October 30, 2008 Rasmussen predicted that Obama would receive 364 electoral votes and McCain would receive 174. The electoral votes were tallied before a joint session of Congress on January 8, 2009. Obama received 365 electoral votes, and McCain 173. Rasmussen was off by 1 electoral vote.

Source:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost

Rasmussen is the only poll I rely on.

Romulus
07-27-2011, 10:19 AM
Good post TJMadison


What that poll tells me is that we have to tout Ron Paul's conservative credentials more.

and This too.

sailingaway
07-27-2011, 10:19 AM
Breaking double digit percentages is a great sign. Can only go up from here... with bumps from the straw poll finish and Palin declaring she is out.

Palin being in hurts Bachmann more than it does us.

TJMadison
07-27-2011, 10:28 AM
[QUOTE=Rasmussen is the only poll I rely on.[/QUOTE] Here's why:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters indicates that Obama's top two contenders are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. The following surveys were taken between June 24 thru July 17, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. The candidates are ranked by those who pose the strongest challenge to Obama. It is interesting to note that Obama has the lowest number when polling against Ron Paul. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are currently the top two challengers. Here are the results of each poll:

Romney 43% - Obama 42% = 1 point lead for Romney
Obama 41% - Paul 37% = 4 point lead for Obama

Obama 44% - Guliani 39% = 5 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Perry 39% = 6 point lead for Obama
Obama 46% - Bachmann 39% = 7 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Christie 37% = 7 point lead for Obama
Obama 47% - Palin 38% = 9 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Pawlenty 32% = 12 point lead for Obama
Obama 45% - Santorum 31% = 14 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Huntsman 28% = 16 point lead for Obama
Obama 48% - Gingrich 30% = 18 point lead for Obama
Obama 49% - Cain 28% = 21 point lead for Obama

The poll, dated July 22, 2011, states "Congressman Ron Paul may be a long shot to win the Republican presidential nomination, but he runs competitively with President Obama right now."

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_41_ron_paul_37

A previous Rasmussen poll, dated April 14, 2010, placed Paul within 1 point of Obama The poll stated, "Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical election match-up and the race is virtually dead even."

Source: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41

The fact that Ron Paul has proven himself as a top contender in two Rasmussen polls over a 15 month period is a clear indication that Paul is a top tier candidate for the GOP nomination in 2012.

libertybrewcity
07-27-2011, 03:22 PM
bump

BrendanWenzel
07-27-2011, 03:50 PM
Good start, but we still got a lot of work to do!

Primbs
07-29-2011, 12:58 AM
Bachman and Ron Paul's total are a lot more than Romney. The Tea party and conservatives are splitting their vote and allowing Romney to take the lead.

Anti Federalist
07-29-2011, 01:05 AM
Good!!!

sailingaway
07-29-2011, 07:31 AM
Bachman and Ron Paul's total are a lot more than Romney. The Tea party and conservatives are splitting their vote and allowing Romney to take the lead.

They are competing for who the standard bearer will be.

Eric21ND
07-29-2011, 09:46 AM
They are competing for who the standard bearer will be.
Hopefully Rand will have a say in that matter ;)

specsaregood
07-29-2011, 09:47 AM
Bachman and Ron Paul's total are a lot more than Romney. The Tea party and conservatives are splitting their vote and allowing Romney to take the lead.
There worked out well for the establishment in the Indiana Senate race. Of course, one might argue that is Bachmann's role.

georgiaboy
07-29-2011, 09:59 AM
Here's why:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters indicates that Obama's top two contenders are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. The following surveys were taken between June 24 thru July 17, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. The candidates are ranked by those who pose the strongest challenge to Obama. It is interesting to note that Obama has the lowest number when polling against Ron Paul. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are currently the top two challengers. Here are the results of each poll:

Romney 43% - Obama 42% = 1 point lead for Romney
Obama 41% - Paul 37% = 4 point lead for Obama

Obama 44% - Guliani 39% = 5 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Perry 39% = 6 point lead for Obama
Obama 46% - Bachmann 39% = 7 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Christie 37% = 7 point lead for Obama
Obama 47% - Palin 38% = 9 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Pawlenty 32% = 12 point lead for Obama
Obama 45% - Santorum 31% = 14 point lead for Obama
Obama 44% - Huntsman 28% = 16 point lead for Obama
Obama 48% - Gingrich 30% = 18 point lead for Obama
Obama 49% - Cain 28% = 21 point lead for Obama

The poll, dated July 22, 2011, states "Congressman Ron Paul may be a long shot to win the Republican presidential nomination, but he runs competitively with President Obama right now."

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_41_ron_paul_37

A previous Rasmussen poll, dated April 14, 2010, placed Paul within 1 point of Obama The poll stated, "Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical election match-up and the race is virtually dead even."

Source: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41

The fact that Ron Paul has proven himself as a top contender in two Rasmussen polls over a 15 month period is a clear indication that Paul is a top tier candidate for the GOP nomination in 2012.

+rep

georgiaboy
07-29-2011, 10:01 AM
Bachman and Ron Paul's total are a lot more than Romney. The Tea party and conservatives are splitting their vote and allowing Romney to take the lead.

Yep, and this also explains why Bachmann is voting with Ron Paul on every piece of legislation these days. She knows which voters she's courting. Too bad she supported Ryan's budget.

BlackTerrel
07-29-2011, 10:08 PM
Cain really looks to have dropped.