RCP: The Paul Wildcard

[libertybrewcity]

PG 1
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Republican establishment types in the nation's first voting state quietly refer to it as The Doomsday Scenario. And it goes something like this:

On a scorching, triple-digit Saturday in central Iowa next month, many of the casually attuned GOP caucus-goers who had planned to attend the Ames Straw Poll instead decide to stay home or make a beeline for the nearest air-conditioned movie theater.

Meanwhile, throngs of the famously devoted supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul wipe the sweat off their brows without batting an eye and descend on the campus of Iowa State University to propel the libertarian-leaning icon to yet another straw-poll victory -- but one that might actually be significant for once.

The win gets Paul some nice press but does little to shake the ingrained perception that he has little shot at winning the caucuses and next-to-zero chance of becoming the last Republican candidate standing, the one who will take on President Obama in November 2012.

Renewed questions about Iowa's relevance gain steam immediately -- not just with respect to the decidedly inequitable beauty contest in Ames but, more broadly, to the state's coveted "special status" that officials here have fought so hard to justify amid skepticism from Republican voters in the other 49 states, who wonder why it is deserved.

Though early polls and assessments of the candidates' organizational strengths have already established a pervading narrative about what is likely to happen here, conversations with likely caucus-goers, campaign operatives and state GOP officials reveal a consensus on just one point: The field remains fluid and the conventional wisdom of the moment will almost certainly change well before the leaves start to do the same this fall.

In an Iowa campaign cycle that has gotten off to a much slower and sleepier start than almost anyone anticipated, a Ron Paul straw-poll victory is one of several plausible scenarios that have the potential to dramatically alter the current dynamic, in which Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has opened up a consistent lead in recent polls.

PG 4
The Paul Wildcard

Of all the scenarios that could turn the situation in Iowa on its head, a potential Paul victory at the straw poll is among the most intriguing -- and also laden with unpredictable aftershocks.

The possibility of a Paul win in Ames may seem implausible at first glance, given the Texas congressman's fifth-place showing at the 2007 straw poll, but he is going all-in this year in a way that he declined to do the last time around.

The Paul campaign purchased the most coveted real estate from the state party for the event, has been advertising heavily on Iowa TV for weeks, and the libertarian-leaning icon will spend the better part of the critical days leading up to Ames on the stump in Iowa.

Paul's Iowa campaign is well organized and purports to have harnessed the recent political winds to position itself as more of a mainline entity than the eccentric insurgent operation that it was the last time around.

"Four years ago, I remember John McCain and some of the other candidates snickering when Ron Paul talked about the Fed printing money out of thin air, and now everyone's talking about it," said Paul's Iowa vice chairman, A.J. Spiker. "Congressman Paul has held several meet-and-greets throughout Iowa, and one thing that's really different from four years ago is we're seeing a lot of traditional Republicans at events -- county GOP people that are coming. The message is resonating and they're really paying attention to it."

Spiker downplayed the possibility that the relevance of a Paul victory in Ames would largely be dismissed. "If top-tier campaigns do poorly at the straw poll, it will be representative of their organizations," he said. "It'll be a big deal because it's Iowa."

Indeed, the "big deal" nature of the state that has long been sacrosanct in American politics appears safe for now. But depending on what happens in Ames and afterward, the role that Iowa plays in Republican presidential politics and the strategies that candidates take here may never again be the same.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/07/22/iowa_remains_deeply_unsettled_as_straw_poll_nears_ 110674.html

[Aratus]

folks in iowa are listening to ron paul!

[sailingaway]

this has been posted before, it is a hit piece pretending the poll won't matter if the guy polling second best against Obama in today's Rasmussen poll wins Ames, because..... why again?

[boneyard bill]

I agree it's a hit piece. The implication is that if it's a hot enough day, then real people will stay home and only Ron Paul's wing-nut fanatic supporters will show up and that will allow him to win. His victory would have nothing to do with his strong volunteer organization or the fact that he raised more money than any of his competitors or that his ideas have any real popular appeal. And all of this would be a "Doomsday Scenario" for Iowa because people would never take the Iowa caucuses seriously again.

It's pretty ridiculous. Consider that Tim Pawlenty has less popular support than Ron Paul both nationally and in Iowa, and yet no one suggests that a Pawlenty victory would be damaging to the process.

Still it does show that even the beltway is becoming aware of the fact that Ron Paul has a legitimate chance to win the straw poll, and that can't be said of any of the others except Bachmann and Pawlenty, and it's even only true of Pawlenty because he's spending all of his money and practically all of his time in a desperate effort become relevant.

Chances are that Ron Paul will finish either first or second and that will shake up a lot people in DC including all those good Republicans at the RNC headquarters.

[asurfaholic]

ugly, just ugly

[bolidew]

Even if RP wins the real Iowa caucus they will dismiss it as irrelevant.

[sorianofan]

That being said, I hope it is really hot out that day.

[hazek]

Yet another example of media propaganda doing what media propaganda is suppose to do. Yawn.

[Benjam]

Even if RP wins the real Iowa caucus they will dismiss it as irrelevant.

1. The media will call everything irrelevant. Paul's campaign has been doing a stupendous job of making everything relevant. 2. They can't ignore a win in Iowa if RP takes NH too. That would bring everyone running. 3. What's to be done about possible vote fraud now in Iowa and down the trail?

[JohnGalt23g]

Even if RP wins the real Iowa caucus they will dismiss it as irrelevant.

If RP wins the Iowa Caucuses, there will be meltdown at the RNC, and every network will talk about it for... well, until New Hampshire.

[trey4sports]

Even if RP wins the real Iowa caucus they will dismiss it as irrelevant.

Sean Hannity: This just in! GOP frontrunner Michelle Bachmann takes home 2nd place in the Iowa caucus and i think its safe to say she will be the conservative alternatitive to Mitt Romney. Coming in a distant third Mitt Romney and and Herman Cain makes a strong showing in 4th place showing he is a serious candidate as well. Oh yeah, and Ron Paul takes first place. In other news we have a special interview lined up with todays big winner, Michelle Bachmann!

[JoshLowry]

Sean Hannity: This just in! GOP frontrunner Michelle Bachmann takes home 2nd place in the Iowa caucus and i think its safe to say she will be the conservative alternatitive to Mitt Romney. Coming in a distant third Mitt Romney and and Herman Cain makes a strong showing in 4th place showing he is a serious candidate as well. Oh yeah, and Ron Paul takes first place. In other news we have a special interview lined up with todays big winner, Michelle Bachmann!

:(

[White Bear Lake]

Buchanan won NH in 92. Then everyone decided to magically drop out and support Dole.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Sean Hannity: This just in! GOP frontrunner Michelle Bachmann takes home 2nd place in the Iowa caucus and i think its safe to say she will be the conservative alternatitive to Mitt Romney. Coming in a distant third Mitt Romney and and Herman Cain makes a strong showing in 4th place showing he is a serious candidate as well. Oh yeah, and Ron Paul takes first place. In other news we have a special interview lined up with todays big winner, Michelle Bachmann!

This is a very likely scenario & that's why I've been saying for months now that people here should NOT expect miracles from a victory at Ames, it likely WON'T get Ron's numbers to jump from 10% to 30% all of a sudden, & since a victory will be downplayed so much, a 2nd or a 3rd place won't even count for Ron at all so a victory is a MUST but what it will do is get all the "I like him but he can't win" people to realize that may be he CAN win & that may get us a few new supporters/donors which we'll definitely need for Q3.

As I've said elsewhere, we need an Ames victory & then we need Bachmann to fall ASAP & Perry & Palin to NOT enter the race & then it'll be "Romney the socialist vs. Paul the TOP conservative" & then we might see more Republicans wanting to listen to & queue up behind Ron & that'll hopefully get us closer to a GOP nomination.

[dusman]

As I've said elsewhere, we need an Ames victory & then we need Bachmann to fall ASAP & Perry & Palin to NOT enter the race & then it'll be "Romney the socialist vs. Paul the TOP conservative" & then we might see more Republicans wanting to listen to & queue up behind Ron & that'll hopefully get us closer to a GOP nomination.

An Ames victory would be amazing. Unfortunately, Bachmann, Perry, and Palin will all muddle the field enough to make it a difficult uphill battle. That's why we need to focus on moving the Tea Party our way as well. We need to start countering their positions with logic and common sense and get to their base.

[trey4sports]

No, winning Ames wont jump our numbers from 10% to 30% but i do expect us to be polling around 18 to 20% in Iowa if we can win Ames.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

An Ames victory would be amazing. Unfortunately, Bachmann, Perry, and Palin will all muddle the field enough to make it a difficult uphill battle. That's why we need to focus on moving the Tea Party our way as well. We need to start countering their positions with logic and common sense and get to their base.

It's not as difficult a task as you seem to think, here's why - http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?299019-Ames-Straw-Poll-By-the-Numbers-(Or-How-Many-People-Does-Ron-Paul-Need-to-Win-)

We CAN do it, we've the numbers in the state of Iowa, it's just a question of reaching them & getting them to come, campaign is even going to bear the expenses.

As I've said, Ron has been winning a lot of straw polls & online polls, etc so if he couldn't win then it's going to reinforce the belief that "he can't win" & I'm sure the media will try to do everything in its power to point it out & knock Ron down so win is a MUST, otherwise it's going to be near impossible fight the "can't win" tag, Ames will give us some bargaining power on that.

As for tea-party, sure Ron needs to simplify his message so that regular people can understand him & all but the way polls are shaping up & the way, other candidates entering/exiting the field doesn't affect Ron's numbers, he remains at ~10%, it shows that he has a loyal base BUT it ALSO shows that the other 90% are almost saying "we'll take anyone but not Paul", they've been brainwashed by the media but a win at Ames will probably make at least some of them think that he's one of the top candidate & make them give Ron a "second look".


No, winning Ames wont jump our numbers from 10% to 30% but i do expect us to be polling around 18 to 20% in Iowa if we can win Ames.

It's be great if the numbers jumped to even 18-20 immediately after Ames win but that's highly unlikely, with media, establishment & big money being against Ron, I think even a jump to 15% seems too big immediately after the win; as I've said, Ron's numbers have been stagnant for a while & other candidates' entry/exit doesn't seem to affect his numbers at all, he always seems to be at about ~10% or so, which shows that he has a loyal base BUT it ALSO shows that the media has brainwashed people so much that the remaining ~90% of people are almost saying "we'll take anyone but not Paul" so these people aren't going to change their minds overnight due to Ron winning Ames. He'll definitely have to simplify his message so that they can understand what he's saying & thereby connect with them, & as I've suggested before, it mightn't be a bad idea to declare VP BEFORE the primaries, who has a significant support from the mainstream GOP, playing the "convential" game works well for establishment candidates but Ron want to get ahead then he's going to have to be innovative. Reagan did something similar in 1976 & NEARLY won the GOP nomination in 1976.

[trey4sports]

It's be great if the numbers jumped to even 18-20 immediately after Ames win but that's highly unlikely, with media, establishment & big money being against Ron, I think even a jump to 15% seems too big immediately after the win; as I've said, Ron's numbers have been stagnant for a while & other candidates' entry/exit doesn't seem to affect his numbers at all, he always seems to be at about ~10% or so, which shows that he has a loyal base BUT it ALSO shows that the media has brainwashed people so much that the remaining ~90% of people are almost saying "we'll take anyone but not Paul" so these people aren't going to change their minds overnight due to Ron winning Ames. He'll definitely have to simplify his message so that they can understand what he's saying & thereby connect with them, & as I've suggested before, it mightn't be a bad idea to declare VP BEFORE the primaries, who has a significant support from the mainstream GOP, playing the "convential" game works well for establishment candidates but Ron want to get ahead then he's going to have to be innovative. Reagan did something similar in 1976 & NEARLY won the GOP nomination in 1976.

the reason i said 18-20% is that he polled @ 14% in the latest ARG poll, so a 5% jump seemed like a fair number. Secondly, i disagree with your analysis and i do so objectively. I, too, used to think the majority of the GOP just really didn't like Paul because they didn't understand him, and i believe that is beginning to become false, and i base that on a couple of things.

1. his favorable/unfavorable numbers are right in the middle of the pack. Not the best but certainly not the worst which is indicative of people having a generally positive view of him.

2. In recent polls a good portion of voters have selected him as their 2nd or 3rd choice, meaning they have a generally favorable view of him and if we get some serious momentum, they will vote for Ron.

Lastly, your statement about Ron's numbers being stagnant is not entirely correct. the latest two national polls (one from Washington Post, and the other from Fox News) show Dr. Paul @ 11% and 10% which is a net increase from both previous polls they conducted, although the percentage he has moved up has been fairly small.

It will be interesting to see what Ron's numbers are like in Iowa in the next poll because it will either validate Ron's 14% in the last Iowa poll or it will prove that his last poll number (14%) was merely an anomaly and give us a more realistic view of his support in Iowa.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

the reason i said 18-20% is that he polled @ 14% in the latest ARG poll, so a 5% jump seemed like a fair number.


It will be interesting to see what Ron's numbers are like in Iowa in the next poll because it will either validate Ron's 14% in the last Iowa poll or it will prove that his last poll number (14%) was merely an anomaly and give us a more realistic view of his support in Iowa.

One or two polls here & there don't count, most of these polls have an error-margin of 2-5% so you're going to see some fluctuations up/down & I'm talking about him being at ~10 or so (& that's a rounded-up figure) NATIONALLY, he's running for the presidency of the United States, NOT the presidency of Iowa :rolleyes: so even if he were a LITTLE higher in Iowa, it doesn't matter because he can win Ames even if he's polling 10% there as all it takes is 5-7K people - http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?299019-Ames-Straw-Poll-By-the-Numbers-(Or-How-Many-People-Does-Ron-Paul-Need-to-Win-


1. his favorable/unfavorable numbers are right in the middle of the pack. Not the best but certainly not the worst which is indicative of people having a generally positive view of him.

2. In recent polls a good portion of voters have selected him as their 2nd or 3rd choice, meaning they have a generally favorable view of him and if we get some serious momentum, they will vote for Ron.

I agree his favorability is decent but again it doesn't matter that much because Ames isn't going to cause these voters, who have Romney/Bachmann/whoever as their 1st &/or 2nd choices, to shift quickly because the bigger establishment candidates mayn't call it quits immediately after Ames (& even when they do quit, there's no guarantee that their followers won't go to some other media-puppet). In the LONG RUN, it looks a little positive but expecting so many of them to shift immediately after Ames is just wishful thinking.

Further, remember media will definitely play down a Ron Paul win by saying that Romney wasn't serious & that Ron always does well at the straw polls but nationally he can't win, etc etc so again, an IMMEDIATE jump is highly unlikely (though desirable for us :D)

Here's how media plays Ron down - Ron came in THIRD in a poll behind Romney & Palin while Cain came in FOURTH & what's the headline - Romney, Palin lead in new GOP poll, Herman Cain not far behind (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20066480-503544.html)

Fully expect such AND WORSE tactics if Ron wins Ames & as I've said, most people vote based on perception that media creates.


Lastly, your statement about Ron's numbers being stagnant is not entirely correct. the latest two national polls (one from Washington Post, and the other from Fox News) show Dr. Paul @ 11% and 10% which is a net increase from both previous polls they conducted, although the percentage he has moved up has been fairly small.

Again, most of the polls have an error margin of 2-5% so variation in numbers to that extent in one or two polls don't count for anything, they're practically meaningless; it's the BIGGER % increases & consistency that counts.