PDA

View Full Version : WaPo ABC News Poll: w/o Palin - Romney 30, Bachmann 16, Paul 11; w/Palin Romney 26




sailingaway
07-20-2011, 11:46 PM
26. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were (Michele Bachmann), (Herman Cain), (Newt Gingrich), (Jon Huntsman), (Sarah Palin), (Ron Paul), (Tim Pawlenty), (Rick Perry), (Mitt Romney), (Rick Santorum). For whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE

AMONG RVs
7/17/11 7/17/11
Mitt Romney 26 26
Sarah Palin 18 16
Michele Bachmann 12 13
Ron Paul 9 7
Rick Perry 8 8
Herman Cain 6 7
Newt Gingrich 5 4
Jon Huntsman 3 3
Tim Pawlenty 2 2
Rick Santorum 2 2
Other (vol.) 1 1
No one/None of them (vol.) 1 1
Would not vote (vol.) 1 *
No opinion 8 8

28. (IF WOULD VOTE FOR PALIN OR PERRY) If (PALIN/PERRY) does not run for president, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE

---Without Palin---- ----Without Perry---
AMONG RVS AMONG RVS
7/17/11 7/17/11 7/17/11 7/17/11
Mitt Romney 30 30 28 28
Sarah Palin NA NA 19 17
Michele Bachmann 16 17 13 14
Ron Paul 11 10 10 8
Rick Perry 8 8 NA NA
Herman Cain 7 7 7 7
Newt Gingrich 6 6 5 4
Jon Huntsman 3 3 3 3
Rick Santorum 3 3 3 3
Tim Pawlenty 3 3 2 2
Other (vol.) 1 1 1 1
No one/None of them (vol.) 2 2 1 2
Would not vote (vol.) 1 * 1 1
No opinion 8 9 8 8

Note however that this was a random sample of adults, not even necessarily voters, and the fact that it skews democrat is evident by Obama beating all head to head, not something we've seen lately in more screened populations.

Sorry, I can't make the columns line up and it is particularly bad in the second figure. Here is the poll, the presidential stuff is down a ways: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_071711.html

malkusm
07-21-2011, 12:09 AM
Look, Ron Paul is third among declared candidates. He polls there in this poll, no matter which of Perry or Palin is included. He's not within Margin of Error of Bachmann, but definitely is close enough to leapfrog her on one big piece of information/news story. It's a good position to be in, considering that we can create that news story in Ames a month from now.

The fact that PPP keeps trotting out Cain, Gingrich, et al. ....gets more embarrassing by the day.

sailingaway
07-21-2011, 12:10 AM
here's the abc write up of it http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/07/obama-and-romney-ride-a-see-saw-with-challenges-for-the-gop-leader-.html

sailingaway
07-21-2011, 12:13 AM
Look, Ron Paul is third among declared candidates. He polls there in this poll, no matter which of Perry or Palin is included. He's not within Margin of Error of Bachmann, but definitely is close enough to leapfrog her on one big piece of information/news story. It's a good position to be in, considering that we can create that news story in Ames a month from now.

The fact that PPP keeps trotting out Cain, Gingrich, et al. ....gets more embarrassing by the day.

I like that Perry is behind Ron. I could be imagining things, but I think there is something unfriendly between the two of them, and I know whose side I'm on.

parocks
07-21-2011, 02:11 AM
Well Ron did say that Perry was part of the International Conspiracy 4 years ago.

I don't think that Ron meant that as a compliment.


I like that Perry is behind Ron. I could be imagining things, but I think there is something unfriendly between the two of them, and I know whose side I'm on.

Esoteric
07-21-2011, 02:55 AM
I would like to know more about them. the 15 percent.

Me too. PPP has been trying to defend their decision not to include Paul in general election polling. They even made immature remarks about it, which are not something I would expect from a respectable organization.

parocks
07-21-2011, 02:57 AM
One thing that an Ames victory would do is stop stuff like that.


Me too. PPP has been trying to defend their decision not to include Paul in general election polling. They even made immature remarks about it, which are not something I would expect from a respectable organization.

Paul Or Nothing II
07-21-2011, 03:53 AM
They're probably older Repubs who think Ron will cut their entitlements, they don't really care if America goes to shitters or whatever, they think with Obama, at least their entitlements will be safe :( This again, comes down to Ron not being able to get his message across in a simple format & thereby not being able to connect with the mainstream voters.

pauladin
07-21-2011, 04:27 AM
but I think there is something unfriendly between the two of them, and I know whose side I'm on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biy_EdGW1Fg

parocks
07-21-2011, 05:28 AM
Or Foreign Policy.

There really isn't a shortage of wars under Obama.

And plenty of Republicans think Ron Paul blames America for 9/11.


They're probably older Repubs who think Ron will cut their entitlements, they don't really care if America goes to shitters or whatever, they think with Obama, at least their entitlements will be safe :( This again, comes down to Ron not being able to get his message across in a simple format & thereby not being able to connect with the mainstream voters.

KurtBoyer25L
07-21-2011, 06:47 AM
At this point I'm really glad to see Ron continuing to poll in double digits. We can't get to 25% without 15% first and 20% after that.

malkusm
07-21-2011, 06:56 AM
"Independents shy from Bachmann and Perry – they lose these swing voters by 18 and 15 points, respectively. Paul is another story; he trails Obama among independents by 52-44 percent, essentially the same as Romney’s result among independents. The difference is that with Paul as the nominee, 15 percent of Republicans defect to Obama; with Romney, it’s 7 percent."



That's not really a concern, IMO. If Ron gets the nomination, you'll see a lot of the warhawk GOP hold their nose and vote for him. I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of Democrats who said they wouldn't vote for (either Hillary or Obama) in 2007/08 was around that 15% number....and how many of them actually followed through with that? :rolleyes:

RonPaul101.com
07-21-2011, 07:09 AM
I would like to know more about them. the 15 percent.

Its probably the 15% that benefited (or felt they did) from Bush's policies, since Obama is really just Bush's 3rd term.

I would be too taken a back from this 15% number and I think it shouldn't be considered independent of defection on the other side; how many Obama supporters (Conservative Democrats) would vote for Obama unless Ron Paul is the GOP nominee. I know my Dad and his wife will vote that way, they REALLY don't like the other GOP candidates.

musicmax
07-21-2011, 07:13 AM
No Gary Johnson. Fail.

SamuraisWisdom
07-21-2011, 07:37 AM
This is really good news. Ron beats Perry, is in 3rd, and is only poised to go higher. This is much better than only a few weeks ago. What happened since then??

Tom in NYC
07-21-2011, 07:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biy_EdGW1Fg

In this video, when he says "I made a choice, and Ron Paul is not mine for President" he does this smirk and eyebrow raise that looks EXACTLY like George W. Bush's mannerisms. Scary how alike they are.

SovereignMN
07-21-2011, 07:41 AM
What's interesting is that Palin/Perry's votes are getting split pretty evenly among registered voters.

Without Palin's 16%.
Romney +4%
Bachmann +4%
Paul +3%
Gingrich +2%
None/No Opinion +2%
Pawlenty +1%

Without Perry's 8%>
None/No Opinion +3%
Romney +2%
Bachmann +1%
Paul +1%
Palin +1%

We are not as a HUGE disadvantage if/when either candidate were to drop out. This is unlike 2008 when we usually got a 0% bump when big players left the race.

specsaregood
07-21-2011, 07:46 AM
He's not within Margin of Error of Bachmann, but definitely is close enough to leapfrog her on one big piece of information/news story.
She peaked, mark my words. That migraine story (true or not) planted the seed in the minds of the voters that she is weak, can't handle stress and would get slaughtered against obama.

falconplayer11
07-21-2011, 07:46 AM
"Independents shy from Bachmann and Perry – they lose these swing voters by 18 and 15 points, respectively. Paul is another story; he trails Obama among independents by 52-44 percent, essentially the same as Romney’s result among independents. The difference is that with Paul as the nominee, 15 percent of Republicans defect to Obama; with Romney, it’s 7 percent."




Oh...and 2012 is the year of the Independent...Ron better run third party! He said he's all in, now that he's retired his seat in the House. Why not run third party? Does he really believe Romney/Perry/Bachmann is going to be any better for the country than Obama?

malkusm
07-21-2011, 07:48 AM
This is really good news. Ron beats Perry, is in 3rd, and is only poised to go higher. This is much better than only a few weeks ago. What happened since then??

This?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUNIeOB0whI

SamuraisWisdom
07-21-2011, 07:51 AM
This?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUNIeOB0whI

Could be, though it's only running in a couple states. My guess would be the fall of Cain and Gingrich. The next debate, as well as Ames, is going to be huge. If Ron can win both then we'll be on our way.

aclove
07-21-2011, 07:55 AM
Oh...and 2012 is the year of the Independent...Ron better run third party! He said he's all in, now that he's retired his seat in the House. Why not run third party? Does he really believe Romney/Perry/Bachmann is going to be any better for the country than Obama?

God, this again?

3 words for you: Sore Loser Laws. In most states, it is illegal to run third party after losing a major party primary. If Ron does not win the GOP nomination, he will not be allowed on the ballot as an Independent/Libertarian/Whatever candidate for the general election.

He's said he won't do it.

He won't be able to get on the ballot in more than 6 states.

It's not going to happen.

And most importantly, the thought that he might do it pisses off Republicans who might otherwise support him in the primary.

Let.

It.

Go.

sailingaway
07-21-2011, 09:16 AM
Well Ron did say that Perry was part of the International Conspiracy 4 years ago.

I don't think that Ron meant that as a compliment.

I'd like to see a clip of him using those words, since I've never seen him do that.

sailingaway
07-21-2011, 09:17 AM
"Independents shy from Bachmann and Perry – they lose these swing voters by 18 and 15 points, respectively. Paul is another story; he trails Obama among independents by 52-44 percent, essentially the same as Romney’s result among independents. The difference is that with Paul as the nominee, 15 percent of Republicans defect to Obama; with Romney, it’s 7 percent."



This poll is worthless as matched against Obama since it isn't even voters, you have foreigners voting in it too, for example. It is simply whatever person answered the phone. Those always skew way democrat. And the 'Republican' number includes leaning. In real polls of voters Ron dominates with independents.

rp08orbust
07-21-2011, 09:34 AM
Well Ron did say that Perry was part of the International Conspiracy 4 years ago.

I don't think that Ron meant that as a compliment.

LOL but Rick might have taken it as one.

angelatc
07-21-2011, 09:43 AM
God, this again?

3 words for you: Sore Loser Laws. In most states, it is illegal to run third party after losing a major party primary. If Ron does not win the GOP nomination, he will not be allowed on the ballot as an Independent/Libertarian/Whatever candidate for the general election.

He's said he won't do it.

He won't be able to get on the ballot in more than 6 states.

It's not going to happen.

And most importantly, the thought that he might do it pisses off Republicans who might otherwise support him in the primary.

Let.

It.

Go.

He isn't going to run independent, but sore loser laws do not apply to the presidency, because, I assume, it's unconstitutional. Most states accomplish the same thing by having ballot registration deadlines though.

speciallyblend
07-21-2011, 09:59 AM
God, this again?

3 words for you: Sore Loser Laws. In most states, it is illegal to run third party after losing a major party primary. If Ron does not win the GOP nomination, he will not be allowed on the ballot as an Independent/Libertarian/Whatever candidate for the general election.

He's said he won't do it.

He won't be able to get on the ballot in more than 6 states.

It's not going to happen.

And most importantly, the thought that he might do it pisses off Republicans who might otherwise support him in the primary.

Let.

It.

Go.

I think that is the general point. if the gop doesn't nominate Ron Paul 2012 ,plenty of us will let the gop go by voting 3rd party ron paul or someone else= gop elects obama you should be telling the gop , they better understand what they are doing if they alienate ron paul;) the gop has backed their own biggovgop ass into a corner;) checkmate Ron Paul 2012!! If the gop thinks we will support a biggovgop est/ neo-con. Then the gop deserves obama! We will let it go;)

speciallyblend
07-21-2011, 10:04 AM
He isn't going to run independent, but sore loser laws do not apply to the presidency, because, I assume, it's unconstitutional. Most states accomplish the same thing by having ballot registration deadlines though.

bottom line is ron paul 2012 or the gop will run a neo-con/gop est and basically elect obama by alienating Ron Paul, it truly is obama vs Ron paul vs obama republicans! The gop would rather elect obama then a small goverment republican!! Ron Paul 2012 or the gop will basically elect obama by default by running a gop est/neo-con biggovgop republican!!

KEEF
07-21-2011, 10:08 AM
I second that. Talking right now about a third party run is already conceding defeat to the GOP RINOs. If he doesn't win, I will do like I did in 08 and just write him in.

speciallyblend
07-21-2011, 10:23 AM
I second that. Talking right now about a third party run is already conceding defeat to the GOP RINOs. If he doesn't win, I will do like I did in 08 and just write him in.

i hear ya, i understand ron paul will not run 3rd party! Does the gop really think educated small government republicans are gonna vote for a biggovgop establishment candidate? If so then the gop will be responsible for electing obama! It will be the gop that forces republicans to vote outside of the gop by running an obama republican aka biggovgop establishment/ neo-con. The gop will be damned if they try to alienate ron paul like they did and are doing! This leaves them pretty much Ron Paul 2012 in my eyes or the gop will force me and others to vote outside of the biggovgop!! The gop has a product problem only one worth a damn, Ron Paul 2012

DrRP08
07-21-2011, 10:47 AM
Is this a national poll? If so I'm pretty sure this is the best we've ever polled.

Romulus
07-21-2011, 10:51 AM
I'm happy with this poll. Look, 4 yrs ago, Gingrich, Cain and Pawlenty type figures would be polling higher than him. Not anymore. They are fed up with business as usual and don't trust these sharks.

Bachman has peaked. She's on the way down in the news cycle.. the novelty is wearing off. Perry might get a little bump with an announcement but we can certainly circumvent that and again, what's so different about him? He's an establishment figure and even the mainline voters no that. He wont get traction.

Zarn Solen
07-21-2011, 10:53 AM
Yes, and it makes me believe that Ron Paul can really take the Northeast states on a whole. If he has the electable tag, there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to compete in New Jersey (where I live). There is a reason why Christie presents himself as a corruption fighting fi-con, regardless of what he is.

parocks
07-21-2011, 12:41 PM
She was already on the way down last week. It could've been anything, not just the migrane.

here's a different poll, which is great fun to look at closely.

Every week they do a presidential horse race poll and talk to R's I's and D's

Here's Bachmann's Up and Down.

Bachmann is trending down with Republicans
9% - july 16
12% - july 9
18% - july 2
9% - june 25
12% - june 18

Bachmann lost 9% in the last 2 weeks. the phone calls for this were june 16-18. The last day was monday.
She's lost half her support and the migrane thing wouldn't have had an effect by monday.

Dr. Marcus Bachmann speaks came out on June 29. 3 days later, 3 days of polling started which ended with Bachmann at 18% Republican.
It's been a total of 3 weeks since that youtube came out. From 18% to 9% in 2 weeks.



She peaked, mark my words. That migraine story (true or not) planted the seed in the minds of the voters that she is weak, can't handle stress and would get slaughtered against obama.