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View Full Version : Story re: Paul campaign in Iowa




sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:18 PM
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/20/ivers-ron-pauls-straw-poll-push-is-most-sophisticated/

I wouldn't have said that.

Because it just furthers the meme that will be played after the event. But, whatever.

RonPaulFanInGA
07-20-2011, 02:20 PM
Because it just furthers the meme that will be played after the event.

:confused:

Ron Paul needs a first place finish here.

(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?304191)

VoluntaryAmerican
07-20-2011, 02:22 PM
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/20/ivers-ron-pauls-straw-poll-push-is-most-sophisticated/

Because it just furthers the meme that will be played after the event. But, whatever.

That Ron Paul's campaign organized. Gathered enough funds. And won.

If the media can make that into a bad thing, I'll be suprised.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:23 PM
:confused:

Ron Paul needs a first place finish here.

(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?304191)

I don't think he needs a first place finish. Some are saying that to make people 'try harder' and I agree we should do everything we can. But all we need to do is 'exceed expectations' and raising expectations doesn't help.


That Ron Paul's campaign organized. Gathered enough funds. And won.

If the media can make that into a bad thing, I'll be suprised.


If they put it that way it wouldn't be bad. But they don't. they say 'he's good at organizing' in a very different way than they say the same exact thing about Pawlenty and Romney. Regarding the establishment favorites they say it in a 'so you don't stand a chance against them' sort of way. With Ron they say it in an 'its just organizing so it doesn't count' sort of way.

"He tests well." *shrug*

RonPaulFanInGA
07-20-2011, 02:25 PM
I don't think he needs a first place finish. Some are saying that to make people 'try harder' and I agree we should do everything we can. But all we need to do is 'exceed expectations' and raising expectations doesn't help.

Nope. Paul needs a first-place finish or the media will completely ignore him. The time for moral victories has passed. If Paul is to build momentum, he needs this win. He's not getting any momentum from the debates like Cain and Bachmann.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:26 PM
Nope. Paul needs a first-place finish or the media will completely ignore him. The time for moral victories has passed. If Paul is to build momentum, he needs this win. He's not getting any momentum from the debates like Cain and Bachmann.

What is your purpose in saying this, so he can be written off if he doesn't get it? What good does saying that do? And last go round he DID get momentum in a debate. There are more coming up. And other candidates don't really have the record to support what they are billing themselves as.

I think we need to do well, but the campaign didn't think we needed a first and neither do I.

I DO think as Perry comes in Perry is going to get a bump before people know who he is, just as Bachmann has, just as Cain did and as Trump did. All of them present themselves 'with Moxy'. We really really want a win, but if we are just a small gap behind the leader, say we have 4,900 votes and the top two have 4950 and 4910, even if it is in third place it will be a boost. Unless we've been telling everyone only first will do. That is why Pawlenty is downplaying his chances, so he can exceed expectations, and we do the campaign and ourselves no favors, imho, to raise expectations.

evilfunnystuff
07-20-2011, 02:26 PM
How is a sophisticated get out the vote system bad?

"Ron contacted his supporters who live in Iowa to ask them to vote." there is now way he can win an election like that." lol

RonPaulFanInGA
07-20-2011, 02:32 PM
What is your purpose in saying this, so he can be written off if he doesn't get it? What good does saying that do?

I think we need to do well, but the campaign didn't think we needed a first and neither do I.

Campaigns lower expectations. What else is new? But we're not with the campaign, so we don't need to sugarcoat anything. There is no need for 'loser spin' amongst supporters before the results are known. We can win.

Really think Paul will rise with a first place finish, and stay flat with a second or worse finish. If Bachmann wins, she'll be near impossible to beat in Iowa barring implosion.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:33 PM
How is a sophisticated get out the vote system bad?

"Ron contacted his supporters who live in Iowa to ask them to vote." there is now way he can win an election like that." lol

I'm not going to keep answering this, I have a different opinion, though. Look at what they wrote after SRLC and CPAC 'he is known to get out his energetic supporters, but he didn't win states last time so it doesn't mean anything' (even though he didn't win SRLC or CPAC last time, either.)

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:33 PM
Campaigns lower expectations. What else is new? But we're not with the campaign, so we don't need to sugarcoat anything. There is no need for 'loser spin' amongst supporters before the results are known. We can win.

Really think Paul will rise with a first place finish, and stay flat with a second or worse finish. If Bachmann wins, she'll be near impossible to beat in Iowa barring implosion.

We disagree.

davidhperry
07-20-2011, 03:08 PM
Nope. Paul needs a first-place finish or the media will completely ignore him. The time for moral victories has passed. If Paul is to build momentum, he needs this win. He's not getting any momentum from the debates like Cain and Bachmann.

I hear you, but a strong showing in Ames (top 3) would be a major win for the campaign, mainly because it would exceed most people's expectation. Diehard RP folks like us really want him to win, but doing better than people expect is enough for the campaign to really gain steam. If he's in the top 3, then you watch how much money is raised within a week.

Also, if RP takes #1 in the poll, it would take the media 5 seconds to start discounting the validity of the poll, just like the text polls after each debate. I think we should shoot for a win so that we do well, but it might actually be better to take 2nd or 3rd so that the media doesn't marginalize us.

Ames is super important, but it's not a campaign maker or breaker either way.

gerryb
07-20-2011, 05:10 PM
I hear you, but a strong showing in Ames (top 3) would be a major win for the campaign, mainly because it would exceed most people's expectation. Diehard RP folks like us really want him to win, but doing better than people expect is enough for the campaign to really gain steam. If he's in the top 3, then you watch how much money is raised within a week.

Also, if RP takes #1 in the poll, it would take the media 5 seconds to start discounting the validity of the poll, just like the text polls after each debate. I think we should shoot for a win so that we do well, but it might actually be better to take 2nd or 3rd so that the media doesn't marginalize us.

Ames is super important, but it's not a campaign maker or breaker either way.

If they try to discredit Ames, that will guarantee a win in the Iowa Caucus...

parocks
07-20-2011, 05:59 PM
A Bachmann implosion is almost guaranteed. Which is why we aren't worried if Bachmann wins.


Campaigns lower expectations. What else is new? But we're not with the campaign, so we don't need to sugarcoat anything. There is no need for 'loser spin' amongst supporters before the results are known. We can win.

Really think Paul will rise with a first place finish, and stay flat with a second or worse finish. If Bachmann wins, she'll be near impossible to beat in Iowa barring implosion.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 06:00 PM
No, we don't want Bachmann to win, but if she does, the fact is, her vetting has just begun.

pacelli
07-20-2011, 07:18 PM
I'm a little nervous that Ivers is involved in the Iowa effort again. Perhaps unfounded, but I remember what he said during the last campaign and it definitely got expectations really really high.

wgadget
07-20-2011, 07:43 PM
Geez, who's next in Their lineup after Perry enters?

Paul Or Nothing II
07-21-2011, 02:01 AM
Nope. Paul needs a first-place finish or the media will completely ignore him. The time for moral victories has passed. If Paul is to build momentum, he needs this win. He's not getting any momentum from the debates like Cain and Bachmann.

Agreed


I hear you, but a strong showing in Ames (top 3) would be a major win for the campaign, mainly because it would exceed most people's expectation. Diehard RP folks like us really want him to win, but doing better than people expect is enough for the campaign to really gain steam. If he's in the top 3, then you watch how much money is raised within a week.

Also, if RP takes #1 in the poll, it would take the media 5 seconds to start discounting the validity of the poll, just like the text polls after each debate. I think we should shoot for a win so that we do well, but it might actually be better to take 2nd or 3rd so that the media doesn't marginalize us.

Ames is super important, but it's not a campaign maker or breaker either way.

Nope, no matter whether Ron finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd, the media will try everything to marginalize him by saying that Romney wasn't serious & that Ron always does well at straw polls, etc etc so that's not going to change no matter what so 1st is the best place to be. While if he's to make a big splash on the national stage then Iowa is his best chance & if he can't even win Iowa then most of the mainstream voters who are already skeptical of his chance will be turned off to him completely.


A Bachmann implosion is almost guaranteed. Which is why we aren't worried if Bachmann wins.

Even if Bachmann implosion was a certainty, it's NOT a certainty that all her supporters will just queue up behind Ron after her debacle. Mainstream Republicans are looking to avoid another Obama presidency & so they want to support someone who's seen as a "frontrunner" & Iowa is Ron's chance to make himself seem like a frontrunner, if he can't even win that IN SPITE of the fact that most people by now know that he gets strong support at straw polls, then mainstream voters aren't going to put their faith in him, they'll likely go for someone like Romney who LOOKS to be the frontrunner among the mainstream.

parocks
07-21-2011, 02:24 AM
Even if Bachmann implosion was a certainty, it's NOT a certainty that all her supporters will just queue up behind Ron after her debacle. Mainstream Republicans are looking to avoid another Obama presidency & so they want to support someone who's seen as a "frontrunner" & Iowa is Ron's chance to make himself seem like a frontrunner, if he can't even win that IN SPITE of the fact that most people by now know that he gets strong support at straw polls, then mainstream voters aren't going to put their faith in him, they'll likely go for someone like Romney who LOOKS to be the frontrunner among the mainstream.

The tea party should be mighty this year. There will be a tea party candidate. If Bachmann isn't in, and Palin isn't in, who is that candidate? It's possible that it wouldn't be Paul, but it most likely wouldn't be Perry and not Romney. So, Bachmann's tea party supporters are likely to follow tea party on this. Unless I'm completely missing the role and importance of tea party this year.

The other thing is that if Bachmann leaves and no one else gets in, that puts us at 2nd, simply assuming that we get our share of her supporters, and we should.

I'm not sure I buy this whole "therefore, frontrunner" argument. Tea Party say NO MORE RINOS. And you'll see that the 4 "tea party" candidates are getting the same amount of votes as the establishment candidates.

Paul Or Nothing II
07-21-2011, 03:44 AM
The tea party should be mighty this year. There will be a tea party candidate. If Bachmann isn't in, and Palin isn't in, who is that candidate? It's possible that it wouldn't be Paul, but it most likely wouldn't be Perry and not Romney. So, Bachmann's tea party supporters are likely to follow tea party on this. Unless I'm completely missing the role and importance of tea party this year.

The other thing is that if Bachmann leaves and no one else gets in, that puts us at 2nd, simply assuming that we get our share of her supporters, and we should.

I'm not sure I buy this whole "therefore, frontrunner" argument. Tea Party say NO MORE RINOS. And you'll see that the 4 "tea party" candidates are getting the same amount of votes as the establishment candidates.

The fact that Bachmann isn't even "tea-party" candidate as such & STILL gets a lot of the tea-party vote shows that almost anybody (within reason, of course) can be propped up as a "tea-party candidate" so the assumption that they'll queue up behind Ron when Bachmann falls is fallacious. And again, no matter how much the tea-party people hate RINOs, if a RINO like Romney is seen as by far the best bet against another Obama-presidency then they'll vote for him anyway.

The fact is that there are people out there who agree with Ron on a lot of issues but they don't back him because they think he can't win & they'd hate nothing more than another Obama presidency so unless Ron can convince them that he CAN hold his own on the national stage, they're simply not going to vote for him. And winning Iowa might be what is needed to convert them completely; a 2nd or 3rd or worse finish would only allow the media to emphasize that IN SPITE of having strong support at straw polls, he can't win at the state & national level & continue with their "fringe/unelectable" rhetoric.

Believe it or not, winning all these straw polls for a while now has put the onus on us, if Ron wins, it's not that great "because he always does well at straw polls" but if he doesn't win then it's because "he's fringe" :rolleyes:

parocks
07-21-2011, 05:48 AM
No, you're out of step with what is considered tea party.

Bachmann is considered tea party. She gave that tea party speech. Paul, Bachmann, Palin, Cain, all have
tea party cred, whether you want that to be the case.

The others don't. Perry is trying, but that way of thinking should be fully resisted. The list of plausible tea party candidates is
short. They could try to put a tea party hat on Santorum, and it might work to some degree, but not really. They really aren't tea party candidates.

And no, the tea party candidate will get the support of the tea party. The tea party is not voting for Romney in the Primaries. Romney is hated by tea party.

Spread this fact: Ron Paul came in 5th at the Ames Straw Poll in 2008. I think he'll do better.

Yes, it would be good to win, I'm not arguing it isn't, but knocking off Bachmann this early would invite Palin right in. The new Washpost poll has Palin up over Bachmann by 6. But, yeah, a win would probably get it to Paul Palin Romney pretty quickly.



The fact that Bachmann isn't even "tea-party" candidate as such & STILL gets a lot of the tea-party vote shows that almost anybody (within reason, of course) can be propped up as a "tea-party candidate" so the assumption that they'll queue up behind Ron when Bachmann falls is fallacious. And again, no matter how much the tea-party people hate RINOs, if a RINO like Romney is seen as by far the best bet against another Obama-presidency then they'll vote for him anyway.

The fact is that there are people out there who agree with Ron on a lot of issues but they don't back him because they think he can't win & they'd hate nothing more than another Obama presidency so unless Ron can convince them that he CAN hold his own on the national stage, they're simply not going to vote for him. And winning Iowa might be what is needed to convert them completely; a 2nd or 3rd or worse finish would only allow the media to emphasize that IN SPITE of having strong support at straw polls, he can't win at the state & national level & continue with their "fringe/unelectable" rhetoric.

Believe it or not, winning all these straw polls for a while now has put the onus on us, if Ron wins, it's not that great "because he always does well at straw polls" but if he doesn't win then it's because "he's fringe" :rolleyes:

pacelli
07-21-2011, 06:01 AM
Nope, no matter whether Ron finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd, the media will try everything to marginalize him by saying that Romney wasn't serious & that Ron always does well at straw polls, etc etc so that's not going to change no matter what so 1st is the best place to be.

To say that Romney isn't serious about Iowa indicates that he doesn't give a shit about iowans, which is probably true. I don't understand how he can just skip over Iowa and get a free pass from everybody, including republicans living in iowa.

speciallyblend
07-21-2011, 06:43 AM
To say that Romney isn't serious about Iowa indicates that he doesn't give a shit about iowans, which is probably true. I don't understand how he can just skip over Iowa and get a free pass from everybody, including republicans living in iowa.


simple answer gop corruption working with media!!

The Dark Knight
07-21-2011, 07:39 AM
The huge factor as to who wins the straw poll will take place this saturday as the state central cmte decides whether to put Sarah Palin and Rick Perry on the ballot. If they put them on the ballot, Ron will win. If not it will be tough to overcome Bachmann. Iowa is her Backyard.

Paul Or Nothing II
07-21-2011, 08:01 AM
No, you're out of step with what is considered tea party.

Bachmann is considered tea party. She gave that tea party speech. Paul, Bachmann, Palin, Cain, all have
tea party cred, whether you want that to be the case.

The others don't. Perry is trying, but that way of thinking should be fully resisted. The list of plausible tea party candidates is
short. They could try to put a tea party hat on Santorum, and it might work to some degree, but not really. They really aren't tea party candidates.

And no, the tea party candidate will get the support of the tea party. The tea party is not voting for Romney in the Primaries. Romney is hated by tea party.

Spread this fact: Ron Paul came in 5th at the Ames Straw Poll in 2008. I think he'll do better.

Yes, it would be good to win, I'm not arguing it isn't, but knocking off Bachmann this early would invite Palin right in. The new Washpost poll has Palin up over Bachmann by 6. But, yeah, a win would probably get it to Paul Palin Romney pretty quickly.

I'd disagree. One only has to look into whose voters Bachmann ate into once she started soaring, it was Romney & Palin but Ron's numbers were unaffected for the most part which shows that a lot of these so called "tea-party people" were backing Romney OVER RON before Bachmann entered & that they never saw Ron in the same light so when Bachmann falls, most of them will likely go back to Romney or anyone else who seems like a good hedge against another Obama-presidency, UNLESS Ron starts attracting them by connecting with them through better speeches &/or by WINNING Ames & thereby demonstrating that he's got what it takes.

I'll say it again, Ron is seen as someone who always dominates straw polls so if he doesn't win then that'll only further strengthen the sentiment amongst the media & more importantly among mainstream voters & tea-partiers that he's only good for little straw polls here & there but isn't strong enough to lead in the state & national polls


To say that Romney isn't serious about Iowa indicates that he doesn't give a shit about iowans, which is probably true. I don't understand how he can just skip over Iowa and get a free pass from everybody, including republicans living in iowa.

I think he's taken the best decision in his self-interest, he's the frontrunner so he has everything to lose & doesn't need to risk it & it's possible that Iowans may be angered because of it but cost-benefit analysis is on his side on that as angering a few Iowans isn't as bad as possibly risking one's frontrunner status & since he's the corporatist establishment candidate, media almost always has his back.