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Paulatized
07-20-2011, 07:35 AM
Right now according to the latest Public Policy Polling results, RP is at 9% nationally. Please excuse my ignorance exposed by asking these questions that this poll brought to my mind. I do know that many on this forum are well versed in such matters and would appreciate your insight. Thanks for your time in enlightening me.

First, where will increases in RP’s percentages come from? Obviously not from Palin’s supporters, as his numbers are not affected whether she is in or out. I have read posters who expect him to gain little, if any, when Pawlenty, Cain, and Gingrich drop out. Is our hope based on Bachmann failing and her support coming to RP if he is the only remaining “tea party” candidate as opposed to the establishment Romney? This would not play out if Palin gets in or if Palin doesn’t get in but Perry does and is able to project that he is the tea party choice. Otherwise, where will any future increase come from?

Who or what part of the demographic do we really need to be targeting to increase our support? Are we mostly trying to reach the undecided? Pull in independents? I know the assumption is that a win in Ames will increase perceived viability and hence increase national support from those who currently agree with him but don’t feel he has a chance and that that should improve his numbers nationally to some degree. So I agree Ames is vitally important and the goal of identifying RP supporters and get them to the straw poll is crucial, but will that be enough?

Also, regarding this question:

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 8%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 20%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 42%
Older than 65................................................ .. 30%

Does this age representation polled reflect the actual voting demographics? If so then 72% of the likely voters are ages 46 and above (where our support is weakest). Or are these percentages just particular to this poll? Wouldn’t that indicate that in actuality we would poll a little higher if they had polled a larger percent of the 18 to 45 age group? In any event, there needs to be a BIG push to get the younger voters out to vote.

I am just trying to figure out how all this works. Thanks for your insights.

Indiana4Paul
07-20-2011, 08:33 AM
Also, regarding this question:

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 8%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 20%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 42%
Older than 65................................................ .. 30%

Does this age representation polled reflect the actual voting demographics? If so then 72% of the likely voters are ages 46 and above (where our support is weakest). Or are these percentages just particular to this poll? Wouldn’t that indicate that in actuality we would poll a little higher if they had polled a larger percent of the 18 to 45 age group? In any event, there needs to be a BIG push to get the younger voters out to vote.

You are 100% correct about the need for a big turnout among the younger generation.

Obviously, Dr. Paul also needs to convince older voters of the wisdom of his positions. He's fighting against 3 big issues on this front:

1. He has to prove "electability". Moreso than any other candidate Dr. Paul has to address electability, since this concern has been beaten into the minds of voters for the past 4 years. This is why the Iowa Straw Poll is so very important and why so much of his campaign rests on an ability to prove he is a contender in Iowa and NH.
2. He has to overcome years and years of bias about Foreign Policy. The older demographic grew up around the Cold War and IMHO an Us vs. Them mentality has been deeply entrenched in the minds of these voters. Islamic Jihadism has replaced Communism as the "Them", but the recipe, at least in the minds of these voters, is still the same. The recipe calls for huge investment of resources to defeat "Them" at all costs.
3. Medicare demagoguery.

If we get to this point next year and Dr. Paul is the nominee it will be a result of early success in Iowa which meant people could no longer dismiss his electability. In fact, Dr. Paul's support amongst independents could then become a key weapon for him and he could conceivably turn the entire electability debate in his favor.

A Dr. Paul nomination will also mean that he was able to win older voters over with intellectual arguments. He will have been successful in convincing a majority that we are grossly overinvested in our military and the prescription for defeating today's enemy is different than the prescription for defeating enemies of the past. He'll also be able to make the case that the way to save Medicare and Social Security it to live within our means and create better versions of Medicare and Social Security for future generations so we do not end up bankrupting ourselves.

He'll have success when he can make the ethical and moral argument to older voters that future generations deserve their chance at living the American Dream the same way Baby Boomers, The Great Generation and others did before them.

CaptUSA
07-20-2011, 08:42 AM
Who or what part of the demographic do we really need to be targeting to increase our support?

My advice would be to not treat people as part of a demographic, but as individuals. Just like how we expect a government to operate. We need to practice what we preach. We need to focus on individuals - regardless of any demographic.

Work on the people you know best. Then work on the folks you know a little less. When working on strangers, don't pre-judge them by anticipating what their issues may be, but ask them questions - remember each person is an individual.

I always try to remind myself that demographics can't vote - only individuals can. We need to get as many individuals as possible.

Now, if you could attract some other influential individuals (people who are capable of influencing others) to help you in your efforts, we'd really be in good shape.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 08:51 AM
Right now according to the latest Public Policy Polling results, RP is at 9% nationally. Please excuse my ignorance exposed by asking these questions that this poll brought to my mind. I do know that many on this forum are well versed in such matters and would appreciate your insight. Thanks for your time in enlightening me.

First, where will increases in RP’s percentages come from? Obviously not from Palin’s supporters, as his numbers are not affected whether she is in or out. I have read posters who expect him to gain little, if any, when Pawlenty, Cain, and Gingrich drop out. Is our hope based on Bachmann failing and her support coming to RP if he is the only remaining “tea party” candidate as opposed to the establishment Romney? This would not play out if Palin gets in or if Palin doesn’t get in but Perry does and is able to project that he is the tea party choice. Otherwise, where will any future increase come from?

Who or what part of the demographic do we really need to be targeting to increase our support? Are we mostly trying to reach the undecided? Pull in independents? I know the assumption is that a win in Ames will increase perceived viability and hence increase national support from those who currently agree with him but don’t feel he has a chance and that that should improve his numbers nationally to some degree. So I agree Ames is vitally important and the goal of identifying RP supporters and get them to the straw poll is crucial, but will that be enough?

Also, regarding this question:

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 8%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 20%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 42%
Older than 65................................................ .. 30%

Does this age representation polled reflect the actual voting demographics? If so then 72% of the likely voters are ages 46 and above (where our support is weakest). Or are these percentages just particular to this poll? Wouldn’t that indicate that in actuality we would poll a little higher if they had polled a larger percent of the 18 to 45 age group? In any event, there needs to be a BIG push to get the younger voters out to vote.

I am just trying to figure out how all this works. Thanks for your insights.

Whether we get increase from Palin supporters depends a bit on how well Bachmann and Perry do after vetting. We used to get more of Palin's people before Bachmann did well in NH and Perry started talking about coming in. Both of these candidates sound better than they are when you look at their records, and when people actually do look at their records, some of what used to come to Paul when you took Palin out will again, imho.

However, other than the flavor of the week candidate (first Trump, then Cain now Bachmann... who we have yet to see how well she will hold up under vetting) Ron Paul is the candidate whose numbers are RISING. He was something like 6% last time they took this particular survey (different pollsters' methods are different and get different results.) So he IS going up. He was between * and 1 % last presidential cycle at this point.

They are going to look at the 'new guy' first, but every time they find him wanting, and look deeper, Ron picks up more people.

If we do really well at Ames, win or a close number to winning that will be a boost. We do need something to make people give Ron another look, because he had no money to get his real message out until after people had made up their minds in the last cycle, and people THINK they know him. But this time he has the organization to sustain a real campaign.

Also, I think Gingrich voters will end up with Ron, some of them, as he drops out (and I think he will). He spins himself as a constitutionalist, an idea man and (don't laugh) a fiscal conservative. We have cross over there. And as Bachmann is vetted I predict we get a bunch of her support, unfortunately, the part that is skittering all over as a new candidate comes in may first go to Perry, since people are pretending he is 'tea party'.

PPP also polls by historic voting patterns, which don't necessarily apply to Ron who pulls independents in, etc.

Paulatized
07-20-2011, 08:52 AM
Thanks, I'm a little OCD and tend to want to categorize and sort things, and, I admit, evidently, people. I like to look at statistics and try to determine what of value it tells us. As far as winning people over though, I agree, one individual at a time but we could target individual older voters.

JamesButabi
07-20-2011, 09:09 AM
I think you have some great analysis. My personal opinion is Ron Paul pulls from everywhere. People are convinced slowly but surely from all spectrums. We can't afford however to slowly pull and we need a couple splashes. Where could this happen?

-As you show young people are extremely skewed in every poll because they are typically apathetic in comparison. We need to GOTV for new Republicans. Also need to get independents and Democrats to register Republican. Primary Primary Primary.
- Oh did I mention the primary? Yeah people are holding back at this point. That is our biggest downfall because Ron Paul is without a doubt the strongest general candidate. We would probably see the largest independent and democrat block vote in history for a Republican if he makes it there. Could an Ames win give us enough boost to convince Republicans? Will the media give us enough credit and positive press? Can Ron Paul convince typical Republicans to vote for him in upcoming debates? Thats what the campaign is banking on.
- 9% is strong. Ron Paul is top tier (top 3) at this point. The only thing holding him back is perception. This is by no means a bad spot to be at this point in the game, but we will need to make strides.

parocks
07-20-2011, 12:57 PM
17% of the voters called were independent.

ron paul get 21% of indies w/ Palin (first)
ron paul gets 18% of indies w/o Palin (T first w/ bachmann)

BUSHLIED
07-20-2011, 01:09 PM
Ron polling from last couple of PPP National Polls by individual age bracket:

---------------------------18-29 - 30-45 46-65- 65+

July 19 : Ron Paul = (9%): 19% - 16% - 7% - 4%
July 06 : Ron Paul = (9%): 17% - 15% - 6% - 8%
June 16: Ron Paul = (7%): 06% - 08% -07% - 5%
May 23 : Ron Paul = (7%): 14% - 10% - 9% - 7%
May 05 : Ron Paul = (8%): 10% - 14% - 7% - 4%
Average: ------------------ 13.2% -12.6% 7.2% 5.6%

Galileo Galilei
07-20-2011, 01:19 PM
17% of the voters called were independent.

ron paul get 21% of indies w/ Palin (first)
ron paul gets 18% of indies w/o Palin (T first w/ bachmann)

basically, the poll assumes that 20% of the voters will be non-GOP voters. But I bet it will be 30% to 35% in the states that have an open primary, including Iowa and NH. There is no democrat primary either, so it could even be higher.

parocks
07-20-2011, 02:41 PM
basically, the poll assumes that 20% of the voters will be non-GOP voters. But I bet it will be 30% to 35% in the states that have an open primary, including Iowa and NH. There is no democrat primary either, so it could even be higher.

I agree that the numbers of Independents in the Republican Primaries and Caucuses will be higher than 17% because Obama is unopposed.

sailingaway
07-20-2011, 02:46 PM
Ron polling from last couple of PPP National Polls by individual age bracket:

---------------------------18-29 - 30-45 46-65- 65+

July 19 : Ron Paul = (9%): 19% - 16% - 7% - 4%
July 06 : Ron Paul = (9%): 17% - 15% - 6% - 8%
June 16: Ron Paul = (7%): 06% - 08% -07% - 5%
May 23 : Ron Paul = (7%): 14% - 10% - 9% - 7%
May 05 : Ron Paul = (8%): 10% - 14% - 7% - 4%
Average: ------------------ 13.2% -12.6% 7.2% 5.6%

That's because people say he wants to end social security, which, in the way they are spinning it, for those already dependent who have paid in, is bogus.

JamesButabi
07-20-2011, 02:48 PM
Everyone needs to pick up grandma and grandpa to vote on election day :)

freshjiva
07-20-2011, 02:50 PM
The Blue Republican movement will be where the additional voters we need will come from.
We will step up our resources around December/January towards getting Dems/Indies to register Republican to vote RP to an extent no other candidate will be able to pull off.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robin-koerner/blue-republican_b_886650.html?page=2

parocks
07-20-2011, 03:00 PM
That's because people say he wants to end social security, which, in the way they are spinning it, for those already dependent who have paid in, is bogus.

Yes, but it works within the context of a candidate who, overall, wants much less Fed Gov. Young people seem to like Fed Gov less than old people.

Paulatized
07-20-2011, 04:50 PM
Thanks for all the input. I think it is very interesting and beneficial to determine our strengths and weakness by looking at data of this type. Some thoughtful insights have been presented.


That's because people say he wants to end social security, which, in the way they are spinning it, for those already dependent who have paid in, is bogus.

The reason they think that is because they get ALL of their information from the TV and belief everything they hear on the "news" as fact. My mother is 85, she knows our family supports RP (and would probably vote for him if we ask her to). We were recently talking and politics came up, she said something to the tune of "Oh, I can't vote for your man, he wants to take away my social security and medicare." I said what makes you think that, "I got a letter in the mail that said that." I assured her that was not true. I have been meaning to look at the letter that she read that made her think that.


JamesButabi
Everyone needs to pick up grandma and grandpa to vote on election day
Great idea, really.

We really need to look at where the most likely place we can pick up votes and spend our time there. Maybe Ron (and the grassroots) need to visit retirement communities and do a lot of reassuring.


Indiana4Paul
You are 100% correct about the need for a big turnout among the younger generation.

YAL needs to do voter registration drives and on election day, get people to the polls to vote.