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View Full Version : Article hints at a possible Ron Paul 1st or 2nd place at Ames




goRPaul
07-18-2011, 04:40 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/tim-pawlenty-has-to-win-the-iowa-straw-poll-2011-7


Rep. Ron Paul seems like he's capable of building a crowd of 5,000 supporters. Rep. Michele Bachmann seems like she's capable of building a crowd of 6,000 supporters. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty needs to show that he can build a crowd in the 5,000-6,000 range to prove that he is still a viable candidate. If he falls short of that, then his money will dry up and his campaign will end. Just like that.

These numbers are a good gauge to go by. And with four weeks to go, we're in great shape!!

freshjiva
07-18-2011, 05:28 PM
Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll with 4,516 votes.
This year, I expect many more to participate given the surge of the Tea Party and growing discontent with Obama.

It'll take roughly 5,500 votes to win this year.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 05:34 PM
There were a lot more 8 years back.. There are a lot of 'activist candidates' this year, and the tea parties now have their own organization, so I expect the number to be at the high end.

malkusm
07-18-2011, 05:38 PM
Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll with 4,516 votes.
This year, I expect many more to participate given the surge of the Tea Party and growing discontent with Obama.

It'll take roughly 5,500 votes to win this year.

I think it takes a bit more than that. Here is my prediction from back in February:


No, I don't think 4,000-5,000 votes can win this year. I would estimate about 20,000 total votes. Consider that Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll with 31.6% (remember, he's notorious for busing people in to these things). That would net him 6,320 votes. We should be shooting for the 7-8K that the OP mentions if we want to ensure a victory.

(Trust me - I'm the "Resident Statistician"! ;) )

rp08orbust
07-18-2011, 05:44 PM
There are rumors that the Iowa Republican Party is worried that they won't even break even this year due to how slow ticket sales have been.

This is already been proven true for the other major straw poll, Florida's Presidency 5.

civusamericanus
07-18-2011, 05:48 PM
There are rumors that the Iowa Republican Party is worried that they won't even break even this year due to how slow ticket sales have been.
Because of the terrible uncertainty in the economy, EVERYONE except the government is tightening their belts, Ron Paul might win with 5,000 votes, because of lack of participation. I worry that if Ron Paul wins Iowa, it will be deemed a less important indicator for the president, obviously that's the message Romney is sending out. I'd still like to see Paul with at least 7k votes in the strawpoll, regardless of how the media tries to play down the event.

UtahApocalypse
07-18-2011, 05:57 PM
Remember when Ron Paul wins Ames and the MSM try to downplay it we need to have videos of the past, and current reports of them discussing how vital it is.

KurtBoyer25L
07-18-2011, 06:05 PM
Because of the terrible uncertainty in the economy, EVERYONE except the government is tightening their belts, Ron Paul might win with 5,000 votes, because of lack of participation. I worry that if Ron Paul wins Iowa, it will be deemed a less important indicator for the president, obviously that's the message Romney is sending out. I'd still like to see Paul with at least 7k votes in the strawpoll, regardless of how the media tries to play down the event.

I think the moving-the-goalposts phenomena is very real. But at this point we have to consider that the press will not fix itself in time to help us win this one. Iowa is the chance to spark momentum in our own growing ranks, and at least force the media to talk about Ron. Of course, every win is also an opportunity to preach message & look popular.

KurtBoyer25L
07-18-2011, 06:12 PM
Remember when Ron Paul wins Ames and the MSM try to downplay it we need to have videos of the past, and current reports of them discussing how vital it is.

The problem is that some big names will probably go so far as to claim Ron Paul & his supporters themselves are the ones who made Ames obsolete by "hijacking" it. In my opinion they can look reasonably sane saying that (though it's still grossly unfair) UNLESS Ron continues to get double-digits in Iowa & other states' polling the GOP at large. If that continues to happen there will hopefully be a breaking point where the TV audience clearly sees that something is fishy.

TheSecretBillionaire
07-18-2011, 06:44 PM
When Ron Paul beats Obama in 2012 will the MSM try to undermine the importance of Presidential elections?

I am confident Ron will make a good showing, and given the official campaign's recent display of organization and will to win I am leaning towards a victory.
Placing first will not gain the praise of the MSM, but it is another feather in his cap. Hopefully, it will be a step towards Paul being seen as a legitimate candidate, and it may help broaden the base.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 06:51 PM
The problem is that some big names will probably go so far as to claim Ron Paul & his supporters themselves are the ones who made Ames obsolete by "hijacking" it. In my opinion they can look reasonably sane saying that (though it's still grossly unfair) UNLESS Ron continues to get double-digits in Iowa & other states' polling the GOP at large. If that continues to happen there will hopefully be a breaking point where the TV audience clearly sees that something is fishy.

How do they look reasonably sane saying that when Pawlenty has been running in Iowa for two years? Clearly, something about Ron is different.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 06:54 PM
When Ron Paul beats Obama in 2012 will the MSM try to undermine the importance of Presidential elections?

I am confident Ron will make a good showing, and given the official campaign's recent display of organization and will to win I am leaning towards a victory.
Placing first will not gain the praise of the MSM, but it is another feather in his cap. Hopefully, it will be a step towards Paul being seen as a legitimate candidate, and it may help broaden the base.

Welcome to the forums!

PastaRocket848
07-18-2011, 06:55 PM
He'll be seen as the frontrunner when he is the frontrunner. A win at Ames won't make him the frontrunner. They'll all still say (and believe) that he's got fervent support but is out of the mainstream. Once the polls reflect his progress (and they will, certainly after a win at Ames), he will be either the frontrunner or at least a dead serious threat, depending on the polls. It's all about the polls to the talking heads.

rp08orbust
07-18-2011, 06:56 PM
Welcome to the forums!

They're obviously not new the forums, judging by the username.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 07:06 PM
He'll be seen as the frontrunner when he is the frontrunner. A win at Ames won't make him the frontrunner. They'll all still say (and believe) that he's got fervent support but is out of the mainstream. Once the polls reflect his progress (and they will, certainly after a win at Ames), he will be either the frontrunner or at least a dead serious threat, depending on the polls. It's all about the polls to the talking heads.


It would be a 'springboard' for anyone else, and they'd anticipate the polls. whatever, Iowa cares about the straw poll, if they don't.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 07:07 PM
They're obviously not new the forums, judging by the username.

They aren't new to the movement, but they may be new to the forums.

White Bear Lake
07-18-2011, 07:09 PM
How do they look reasonably sane saying that when Pawlenty has been running in Iowa for two years? Clearly, something about Ron is different.

They don't.

goRPaul
07-18-2011, 07:11 PM
The number of participants are a relative unknown. It could be as few as 12,000 or as many as 18,000. Regardless, since Pawlenty hasn't picked up a lot of traction (Paul outraised Pawlenty in the state $30,774 to $9,300), it looks to me like the straw poll will come down to Bachmann vs. Paul.

I also get the impression that many of the people going to the poll are largely undecided so far. The Aug. 11th debate is going to make a significant impact on them. What's more is Ron has the best seat in the house at the facilities. Ron has good upside potential if things play out right.

Bachmann has many advantages, however. She was born in Waterloo, and she's not going to let Iowans forget that. The media is still giving Bachmann free exposure while leaving Ron on the backburner.

Cain will continue to pump out cliches like a factory, and McCotter will probably crack a few jokes and get a "fresh face" bump.

sailingaway
07-18-2011, 07:22 PM
It has been up to 23,000 some years. Well, we'll do our very best and see what happens. No matter what, Ron should get a lot of media just from being in the best spot for pictures....

Uriah
07-18-2011, 07:52 PM
The number of participants are a relative unknown. It could be as few as 12,000 or as many as 18,000. Regardless, since Pawlenty hasn't picked up a lot of traction (Paul outraised Pawlenty in the state $30,774 to $9,300), it looks to me like the straw poll will come down to Bachmann vs. Paul.

I also get the impression that many of the people going to the poll are largely undecided so far. The Aug. 11th debate is going to make a significant impact on them. What's more is Ron has the best seat in the house at the facilities. Ron has good upside potential if things play out right.

Bachmann has many advantages, however. She was born in Waterloo, and she's not going to let Iowans forget that. The media is still giving Bachmann free exposure while leaving Ron on the backburner.

Cain will continue to pump out cliches like a factory, and McCotter will probably crack a few jokes and get a "fresh face" bump.

Unless Pawlenty has an amazing ground game, which I don't see, I can't predict a finish higher than 3rd. As for Bachmann being born in Waterloo; I was born, raised, and currently live in Iowa. It doesn't matter where she is from. What matters is what she says. And currently she is saying many things that resonate with Iowans. Fresh faces do well, sometimes, but Iowans need to know where candidates stand on the issues and currently I haven't heard a peep in the local media about McCotter's views.

The undecided voter may be our best non-asset. I think we need Paul supports scouring the straw poll talking to voters and discussing Paul's views on issues that matter to them.

"Hello undecided voter! What is important to you? Oh, you don't say. Well, Ron Paul thinks..."

I am coming to believe this is a Paul vs. Bachmann straw poll but don't underestimate anyone!

Santorum has been visiting Iowa quite a lot, he could get the social conservatives.
Cain was viewed very favorably here in Iowa not so long ago.
Romney has strong support that could come to Ames in droves.
Pawlenty has been in Iowa a long time and has the money... it could payoff.
Gingrich has had support here since the mid 90's, his name runs deep.
As for everyone else(Roemer, Krager, Hunstman, Johnson), I think they lack what it takes for a win... but who knows?

Esoteric
07-18-2011, 07:59 PM
Remember when Ron Paul wins Ames and the MSM try to downplay it we need to have videos of the past, and current reports of them discussing how vital it is.

Hey, let's not count our eggs before they hatch! We've got to seal up the victory first! If it were held today, I don't think we'd pull anywhere near 5000 votes.. maybe 2500 if we're lucky. This moneybomb is sure to help the cause.

TheSecretBillionaire
07-18-2011, 08:01 PM
Welcome to the forums!

Thanks! Yep... I'm new to the boards and I'm a new supporter. I've just done my research on the last election cycle, which I hope explains my username.

trey4sports
07-18-2011, 08:03 PM
all that matters is if Iowans take it seriously.

Second of all, it took over 7,000 votes to win in 1999 and 4,500 in 2007 so based on that im thinking were going to need close to 8,000 this time to win.

jware
07-18-2011, 08:24 PM
Is anyone else worried that Fox News will try to make Ron look bad during the debate? I'm expecting them to pull out all the stops in an effort to destroy his momentum.