Des Moines Register: Straw Poll is Anyone's Game

[sailingaway]

Toss out a lot of the normal rules when sizing up the potential impact of this year’s Ames straw poll.

Curveballs have reshaped typical expectations: the Republican presidential race’s late start, unrest within the party, the national front-runner sitting it out, and a large bloc of undecided Iowa voters who could throw a change-up.

Now less than four weeks away, the Iowa-only contest is shaping up as a three-way battle between Minnesota’s Michele Bachmann, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty and Texas’ Ron Paul, Iowa operatives say.

The Iowa Republican Party’s straw poll is usually an advance snapshot of caucus action. In the past four election cycles, the first- or second-place finisher went on to win the caucuses.

So obviously the thing to do is to say it doesn't matter all that much, this year.......:p

Decent article, though.

more at link:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/17/straw-poll-is-anyones-game/

[trey4sports]

lol, i can see the spin now. Fortunately, they wont be able to marginalize it that much, Iowans take this poll very seriously.

[sailingaway]

The reason they will find it hard to marginalize is that OF COURSE it is about both organization and having the numbers of Iowans supporting you to attend. Caucuses rely on those factors too, and Iowa is a caucus state. And Pawlenty has been organizing for over a year and Bachmann has as well, at least since January, although as with her supposed 'late' presidential announcement you can be sure they will play it as if they 'had no time' to organize. And Cain started strong, the question is how many voters he will keep, at this point.

In any event, if they say 'it is just organization' the response is 'what is wrong with the other campaigns that they couldn't organize, too?'

[IDefendThePlatform]

Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s supporters tend to be so intense that they’ll be happy to leave Dubuque at 6 a.m. on a Saturday to spend a long day in Ames. “And for some reason I’ve never really figured out, young people have a real fascination with him,” Dumas said.

This guy is a Dumas.

[malkusm]

This guy is a Dumas.

Maybe because we know that we're paying into programs that are bankrupt, that we'll never see a dime from? Maybe because it's our peers that are being sent to foreign countries? Maybe because we have the most to lose through the Fed's inflation and expansion of the balance sheet?

People of Mr. Dumas' generation shouldn't be writing off the younger generation's concerns so carelessly.

[realtonygoodwin]

Came here to post this. It is up at Politico as well. Media downplay of a Paul victory at Ames has begun.

[Aratus]

a very d.c someone expects dr. ron paul to cakewalk into a quick victory
if the spin has begun prior to the last week leading up to the straw poll.

[Sola_Fide]

Came here to post this. It is up at Politico as well. Media downplay of a Paul victory at Ames has begun.

Bingo.

Why don't these idiots in the Republican party tap in to Ron's obvious grass roots enthusiasm?

[IndianaPolitico]

"Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s supporters tend to be so intense that they’ll be happy to leave Dubuque at 6 a.m. on a Saturday to spend a long day in Ames. “And for some reason I’ve never really figured out, young people have a real fascination with him,” Dumas said."

Maybe it is because "Freedom is popular!"

[BUSHLIED]

Forget about the media downplay. A Ron win, immediately reignites the R3VOLUTION...I, for one, will be back in this should Ron win because it shows organization strength. This has always been one of my biggest compliant about the campaign in 2008 (they didn't really campaign in IOWA and NH & had weak organizations in those states). If Ron wins, his next money bomb will be 6 million easy, cause I know there is a lot of Paul $$ sitting on the sidelines right now...waiting to see if the campaign has the desire and staff to win primary battles. I would love to see how Bachmann responds to a IOWA loss...this is her only state that she can make a name for herself. She won't win NH or Nevada...SC is questionable for her...You win IOWA, you take away her spring board. Cain would seriously crippled...BUT most importantly, you may be able to get TPaw to drop...again forget the media downplay...the presidential candidates are the ones that cannot downplay the loss to Paul...lastly, it also depends on the spanking Ron is able to deal to Bachmann and Pawlenty...if Ron wins by 10% points...it's going to hurt that much more because the Bachmann cannot say it was close...

[sailingaway]

"Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s supporters tend to be so intense that they’ll be happy to leave Dubuque at 6 a.m. on a Saturday to spend a long day in Ames. “And for some reason I’ve never really figured out, young people have a real fascination with him,” Dumas said."

Maybe it is because "Freedom is popular!"

It is the FACT that they have no clue why Ron is popular that is going to kill them.

[sailingaway]

Forget about the media downplay. A Ron win, immediately reignites the R3VOLUTION...I, for one, will be back in this should Ron win because it shows organization strength. This has always been one of my biggest compliant about the campaign in 2008 (they didn't really campaign in IOWA and NH & had weak organizations in those states). If Ron wins, his next money bomb will be 6 million easy, cause I know there is a lot of Paul $$ sitting on the sidelines right now...waiting to see if the campaign has the desire and staff to win primary battles. I would love to see how Bachmann responds to a IOWA loss...this is her only state that she can make a name for herself. She won't win NH or Nevada...SC is questionable for her...You win IOWA, you take away her spring board. Cain would seriously crippled...BUT most importantly, you may be able to get TPaw to drop...again forget the media downplay...the presidential candidates are the ones that cannot downplay the loss to Paul...lastly, it also depends on the spanking Ron is able to deal to Bachmann and Pawlenty...if Ron wins by 10% points...it's going to hurt that much more because the Bachmann cannot say it was close...

Ron needs to make a good showing, in the top few. We want him to win. But raising the target from a good showing to 'win by 10 points' is a pretty big stretch.

And given that beating expectations is the big thing, lets not raise expectations unreasonably.

[White Bear Lake]

Ron needs to make a good showing, in the top few. We want him to win. But raising the target from a good showing to 'win by 10 points' is a pretty big stretch.

And given that beating expectations is the big thing, lets not raise expectations unreasonably.

Nah, I like the idea of winning by 10%. Let's go for it.

[Bruno]

The question is, why are the other candidates' supporters not intense enough to support them?

[puppetmaster]

Bingo.

Why don't these idiots in the Republican party tap in to Ron's obvious grass roots enthusiasm?

well it is because the republicans and the democrats all play for the same team and that team is not the team for freedom.