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Jason Sallee
07-16-2011, 10:12 PM
Hey all! It's been since last election since I posted here.

I have taken a look at the Federal Election Commission Data posted on their website for the 2012 contributions and have completed an analysis through to potential delegate counts. I would like some input on the analysis itself and whether or not to publish my analysis on the column I have on Nolan Chart.

Here is my methodology:

Downloaded and dumped the individual contributions data files into a spreadsheet.
Did a count of the individual contributions taking care to eliminate duplicates.
Summarized the counts by State/Territory.
Divided the counts by the number of days each candidate received contributions to put in on a contributors/day basis.
Converted the contributions/day into percentages.
Applied the primary/caucus rules for each individual state for assignment of delegates.
Totaled the number of delegates for each candidate.


And here are the results:

Mitt Romney..............968 :(
Ron Paul...................853 :D
Michelle Bachmann.....496
Tim Pawlenty............73
Gary Johnson............6 :eek: (does well in New Mexico)

Everyone else falls out in the analysis. Additionally, there was no way for me to take into account Sarah Palin, Jon Huntsman, or Rick Perry as these are not yet committed or were not required to report their fundraising.

Anyways, I would love some input.

trey4sports
07-16-2011, 10:20 PM
its an interesting thing to see and that's cool that you made it, however, i remember methodology like this being used to predict '08 which obviously didnt work. It's a cool idea anyway though.

andrew1229649
07-16-2011, 10:25 PM
Great work! How long did that take?

Jason Sallee
07-16-2011, 10:26 PM
Did the analysis today. About 5 hours of spreadsheet work.

hillertexas
07-17-2011, 08:24 AM
very interesting

Elwar
07-17-2011, 08:36 AM
Does this take into account the fact that donations under $200 are not individually listed and the fact that Ron Paul has over $2 million from those donors?

This time we need to get something out to every Ron Paul supporter in each state with detailed instructions on how to become a delegate.

acptulsa
07-17-2011, 08:45 AM
Does this take into account the fact that donations under $200 are not individually listed and the fact that Ron Paul has over $2 million from those donors?

This time we need to get something out to every Ron Paul supporter in each state with detailed instructions on how to become a delegate.

It's also past time we found a way to inform the public that that tptb doesn't want people to know who the common man is financially supporting, and that the non-corporatist donations are flowing to our man above and beyond all others.

Jason Sallee
07-17-2011, 11:36 AM
Does this take into account the fact that donations under $200 are not individually listed and the fact that Ron Paul has over $2 million from those donors?

This time we need to get something out to every Ron Paul supporter in each state with detailed instructions on how to become a delegate.

Elwar,

No, it doesn't take into account all on the unitemized contributions. I found this out after doing some further probing on the FEC website. As you say, there is a cutoff point where the campaigns don't have to itemize...and each campaign turns out to be different. So it basically throws my analysis out the window.

Paul4Prez
07-17-2011, 01:01 PM
And here are the results:

Mitt Romney..............968 :(
Ron Paul...................853 :D
Michelle Bachmann.....496
Tim Pawlenty............73
Gary Johnson............6 :eek: (does well in New Mexico)



This analysis isn't a good predictor of delegate counts, but it does show which candidates have the strongest support nationwide, and again exposes the media lie that Ron Paul has "passionate but limited" support.