Jason Sallee
07-16-2011, 10:12 PM
Hey all! It's been since last election since I posted here.
I have taken a look at the Federal Election Commission Data posted on their website for the 2012 contributions and have completed an analysis through to potential delegate counts. I would like some input on the analysis itself and whether or not to publish my analysis on the column I have on Nolan Chart.
Here is my methodology:
Downloaded and dumped the individual contributions data files into a spreadsheet.
Did a count of the individual contributions taking care to eliminate duplicates.
Summarized the counts by State/Territory.
Divided the counts by the number of days each candidate received contributions to put in on a contributors/day basis.
Converted the contributions/day into percentages.
Applied the primary/caucus rules for each individual state for assignment of delegates.
Totaled the number of delegates for each candidate.
And here are the results:
Mitt Romney..............968 :(
Ron Paul...................853 :D
Michelle Bachmann.....496
Tim Pawlenty............73
Gary Johnson............6 :eek: (does well in New Mexico)
Everyone else falls out in the analysis. Additionally, there was no way for me to take into account Sarah Palin, Jon Huntsman, or Rick Perry as these are not yet committed or were not required to report their fundraising.
Anyways, I would love some input.
I have taken a look at the Federal Election Commission Data posted on their website for the 2012 contributions and have completed an analysis through to potential delegate counts. I would like some input on the analysis itself and whether or not to publish my analysis on the column I have on Nolan Chart.
Here is my methodology:
Downloaded and dumped the individual contributions data files into a spreadsheet.
Did a count of the individual contributions taking care to eliminate duplicates.
Summarized the counts by State/Territory.
Divided the counts by the number of days each candidate received contributions to put in on a contributors/day basis.
Converted the contributions/day into percentages.
Applied the primary/caucus rules for each individual state for assignment of delegates.
Totaled the number of delegates for each candidate.
And here are the results:
Mitt Romney..............968 :(
Ron Paul...................853 :D
Michelle Bachmann.....496
Tim Pawlenty............73
Gary Johnson............6 :eek: (does well in New Mexico)
Everyone else falls out in the analysis. Additionally, there was no way for me to take into account Sarah Palin, Jon Huntsman, or Rick Perry as these are not yet committed or were not required to report their fundraising.
Anyways, I would love some input.