RonPaulFanInGA
07-14-2011, 09:34 PM
http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/ask-the-expert-pollster-jan-van-lohuizen-weighs-in-on-2012-race/
Jan van Lohuizen earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Rice University in 1978. He has been in the polling business ever since.
In the 1980s, he worked for two of the leading Republican polling firms and spent two years as the opinion research director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
In 1991, he founded his own firm, Voter/Consumer Research. He served as President George W. Bush’s pollster in both of his presidential election campaigns. He is highly regarded by political professionals in both parties.
We asked him (by e-mail) to help us get a sense of where the 2012 GOP presidential nomination campaign stood at this juncture of the race. His answers to our five questions are below.
1. What’s your sense of the GOP presidential race? Who’s in the first tier of likely nominees and who makes up the second tier?
JVL: Romney and Bachmann are the current front runners. The jury is out on Bachmann’s staying power. However, Christie and Perry would join the first tier candidates if they decided to get in the race. If you look at support for Christie among the most engaged caucus goers it is clear that the overall numbers underestimate his potential support. I would add Perry to the top tier as well. His actual accomplishments are debatable, but he will claim credit for the strong Texas economy. In doing so he will combine the strongest points of Bachmann and Romney; Perry’s appeal to tea party voters will match Bachmann’s as will his communications skills; his achievements regarding the Texas economy will match Romney’s claimed credentials. Actually they may trump Romney’s credentials, since the Texas economy now puts to shame the Massachusetts economy when Romney left. What is more, Romney’s current rhetoric on the economy is pretty hollow, and I think Perry’s record will trump Romney’s rhetoric.
2. You just did a survey in Iowa. What’s behind the surge for Michele Bachmann there?
JVL: Her debate performance in the 2nd debate. Look at the Herman Cain phenomenon. After the 1st debate in South Carolina his numbers took off into the mid-teens in national primary polls. After the 2nd debate they quickly came back to earth. I think the same may happen to Bachmann, but more slowly: her numbers really took off following the 2nd debate.
Full interview (http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/ask-the-expert-pollster-jan-van-lohuizen-weighs-in-on-2012-race/).
Jan van Lohuizen earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Rice University in 1978. He has been in the polling business ever since.
In the 1980s, he worked for two of the leading Republican polling firms and spent two years as the opinion research director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
In 1991, he founded his own firm, Voter/Consumer Research. He served as President George W. Bush’s pollster in both of his presidential election campaigns. He is highly regarded by political professionals in both parties.
We asked him (by e-mail) to help us get a sense of where the 2012 GOP presidential nomination campaign stood at this juncture of the race. His answers to our five questions are below.
1. What’s your sense of the GOP presidential race? Who’s in the first tier of likely nominees and who makes up the second tier?
JVL: Romney and Bachmann are the current front runners. The jury is out on Bachmann’s staying power. However, Christie and Perry would join the first tier candidates if they decided to get in the race. If you look at support for Christie among the most engaged caucus goers it is clear that the overall numbers underestimate his potential support. I would add Perry to the top tier as well. His actual accomplishments are debatable, but he will claim credit for the strong Texas economy. In doing so he will combine the strongest points of Bachmann and Romney; Perry’s appeal to tea party voters will match Bachmann’s as will his communications skills; his achievements regarding the Texas economy will match Romney’s claimed credentials. Actually they may trump Romney’s credentials, since the Texas economy now puts to shame the Massachusetts economy when Romney left. What is more, Romney’s current rhetoric on the economy is pretty hollow, and I think Perry’s record will trump Romney’s rhetoric.
2. You just did a survey in Iowa. What’s behind the surge for Michele Bachmann there?
JVL: Her debate performance in the 2nd debate. Look at the Herman Cain phenomenon. After the 1st debate in South Carolina his numbers took off into the mid-teens in national primary polls. After the 2nd debate they quickly came back to earth. I think the same may happen to Bachmann, but more slowly: her numbers really took off following the 2nd debate.
Full interview (http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/ask-the-expert-pollster-jan-van-lohuizen-weighs-in-on-2012-race/).