PPP - New Hampshire GOP Presidential Primary Poll (July 6th)

[MRoCkEd]

Bachmann surging, signs of weakness for Romney
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/bachmann-surging-signs-of-weakness-for.html

Romney 25%
Bachmann 18%
Palin 11%
Paul 9%
Perry 7%
Cain 7%
Huntsman 6%
Pawlenty 6%
Gingrich 4%
Someone else/Not sure 9%

[tsai3904]

New Hampshire (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/bachmann-surging-signs-of-weakness-for.html)
6/30 - 7/5
341 usual Republican primary voters
+/-5.3%

With Palin:

Romney 25%
Bachmann 18%
Palin 11%
Paul 9%
Cain 7%
Perry 7%
Huntsman 6%
Pawlenty 6%
Gingrich 4%


Without Palin:

Romney 28%
Bachmann 21%
Paul 9%
Perry 9%
Cain 7%
Huntsman 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Gingrich 4%


Results from last New Hampshire poll:

New Hampshire (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/romney-leads-in-nh-trump-makes-things.html)
3/31 - 4/3
384
+/-5.0%

Romney 31%
Huckabee 15%
Gingrich 13%
Paul 10%
Palin 10%
Bachmann 4%
Pawlenty 4%
Barbour 2%

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Bachmann continues to surge.

[Bern]

Apparently, NH prefers crazy to liberty.

[FSP-Rebel]

At least Romney has been knocked down a notch.

[messana]

The free state project has it's work cut out for them.

[freshjiva]

NH is a lost cause. I really don't see why we should be devoting any more time to those confused people.

Our #1 focus should be Iowa. #2 focus should be South Carolina. #3 Nevada.

[Havax]

The IRS agent, The Federal Reserve Chairman, The universal healthcare flip-flopper, or the only candidate with decades of consistency and strict adherence to our constitution?

Tough choice!

[PaulConventionWV]

NH is a lost cause. I really don't see why we should be devoting any more time to those confused people.

Our #1 focus should be Iowa. #2 focus should be South Carolina. #3 Nevada.

#4 West Virgina. If we carry it that far, and we win Texas, we just might have it made. This is better than his usual 7% in NH, though. It's growth. I'm still waiting on another Iowa poll.

[Maximus]

The more Romney goes down the better things will be.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

NH is a lost cause. I really don't see why we should be devoting any more time to those confused people.

Our #1 focus should be Iowa. #2 focus should be South Carolina. #3 Nevada.

I think we should still keep on working, last time Ron was 5th so even if we win in Iowa, we need a strong showing in NH so we could work towards at least getting the 2nd place, shunning an early state outright won't do much good at all.

The poll needs to be more accurate really, I mean +/-5.3% is just too much, these guys need to do better than +/-5.3% The good thing though is that Cain's running out of steam, I hope Bachmann will too ASAP & then it's Ron v Romney & then we can get the GOP to rally behind us by attacking the Romney's socialist background.

[Travlyr]

I think we should still keep on working, last time Ron was 5th so even if we win in Iowa, we need a strong showing in NH so we could work towards at least getting the 2nd place, shunning an early state outright won't do much good at all.

The poll needs to be more accurate really, I mean +/-5.3% is just too much, these guys need to do better than +/-5.3% The good thing though is that Cain's running out of steam, I hope Bachmann will too ASAP & then it's Ron v Romney & then we can get the GOP to rally behind us by attacking the Romney's socialist background.

No doubt. +/- 5% is a useless poll.

[Feeding the Abscess]

More proof that there isn't overlap between the Palin and Paul crowds.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

No doubt. +/- 5% is a useless poll.

I wouldn't exactly call it "useless" because none of the other pollsters are showing drastically different results for us & considering that most of the "mainstream" pollsters were pretty accurate on average in 2007 (& we kept deluding ourselves that they were rigged :(), I'd say we shouldn't take'em lightly but definitely not very accurate but Ron is probably a couple of percentage-points up AT BEST.


More proof that there isn't overlap between the Palin and Paul crowds.

True. Palin's 11% gets distributed between Romney (3%), Bachmann (3%), Perry (2%) & Huntsman (1%) but no effect on Ron's numbers shows that Palin supporters a bunch of buffoons but the good thing is that if Bachmann fizzles out quickly in the near future as Cain has already then it could Ron v Socialist & then even some of those Palin-people might rally behind Ron for being the more conservative of the two.

[Travlyr]

I wouldn't exactly call it "useless" because none of the other pollsters are showing drastically different results for us & considering that most of the "mainstream" pollsters were pretty accurate on average in 2007 (& we kept deluding ourselves that they were rigged :(), I'd say we shouldn't take'em lightly but definitely not very accurate but Ron is probably a couple of percentage-points up AT BEST.

Ok, I don't know a lot about it, but +/- 2-3% seems to be the standard. 5.3% is sloppy polling.

[parocks]

Have we looked at South Carolina polls recently?

I wouldn't worry too much about New Hampshire at this point.


NH is a lost cause. I really don't see why we should be devoting any more time to those confused people.

Our #1 focus should be Iowa. #2 focus should be South Carolina. #3 Nevada.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Ok, I don't know a lot about it, but +/- 2-3% seems to be the standard. 5.3% is sloppy polling.

Well, I agree that it IS sloppy but I'm just saying that we shouldn't just disregard it completely or call it "useless" because that's the lesson we learnt from 2007 experience.

[Restore-America-NOW]

We're moving up in the polls :)

[Tom in NYC]

They must have a thing for being spoken to like a kindergarten class up there.

[Badger Paul]

What all these polls tell me right now is Paul is third in the GOP primary field as of July 6 and it's not a bad place to be right on the cusp of Ames.

[BUSHLIED]

Well, I agree that it IS sloppy but I'm just saying that we shouldn't just disregard it completely or call it "useless" because that's the lesson we learnt from 2007 experience.


It is not a matter of sloppy polling, it is due to the amount of variability among the sample and sample size. The GOP voters were much less than the overall sample. The smaller the sample size, the more noise you get.

The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from June 21 to July 1. Among the 773 adults surveyed, 357 were likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.5 percent and plus or minus 5.2 percent for Republican voters.

To be honest, a poll with this size margin of error should be interpreted very cautiously. And the moving averages is what is important. Therefore, things aren't as bad for us as this poll suggests:

We are 4 percentage points behind 2nd.

Overall Average
Romney- 34.5
Bachmann- 12.8
Paul- 8.5

The problem that may be emerging is Pawlenty gaining ground. Once Paiin makes her decision, then we will have the information we need. Still steaming over MSNBC excluding Ron $ numbers...make sure you check out that post and email them politely.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

It is not a matter of sloppy polling, it is due to the amount of variability among the sample and sample size. The GOP voters were much less than the overall sample. The smaller the sample size, the more noise you get.

The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from June 21 to July 1. Among the 773 adults surveyed, 357 were likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.5 percent and plus or minus 5.2 percent for Republican voters.

To be honest, a poll with this size margin of error should be interpreted very cautiously. And the moving averages is what is important. Therefore, things aren't as bad for us as this poll suggests:

We are 4 percentage points behind 2nd.

Overall Average
Romney- 34.5
Bachmann- 12.8
Paul- 8.5

The problem that may be emerging is Pawlenty gaining ground. Once Paiin makes her decision, then we will have the information we need. Still steaming over MSNBC excluding Ron $ numbers...make sure you check out that post and email them politely.

What is your point? Are you trying to suggest that Ron's numbers MUCH higher than the poll suggests like ~20% or something? All I'm saying is that, yes, it's not accurate but it's not SOOO inaccurate that we should live in a bubble like we did last election thinking that the "actual" are numbers VERY different than the ones shown.

[RP Supporter]

Keep in mind 2004 on the Dem side. IIRC correctly, Gephardt and Dean were the two leading contenders. They trashed each other so much John Kerry, until then a non entity, surged and won. We need to hope this race goes negative between Bachmann and Romney and voters get so disgusted with both of them they turn towards Paul.

I'm worried about Huntsman though. If Romney falls, I think many of his voters will go towards him. Ideally they'd split them 50/50, and Bachmann would utterly collapse.

[BUSHLIED]

What is your point? Are you trying to suggest that Ron's numbers MUCH higher than the poll suggests like ~20% or something? All I'm saying is that, yes, it's not accurate but it's not SOOO inaccurate that we should live in a bubble like we did last election thinking that the "actual" are numbers VERY different than the ones shown.


No I am suggesting that is better to look at more data points than just this one that has a large margin of error for GOP voters...if you do that the race is tighter between Paul and Bachmann. AND Romney's numbers are coming down...so there is a slight tightening of the race...which is good, because Ron is ever so slowly edging closer to 2nd.

Once we know what Palin and Perr are going to do, then we will get a complete picture...so we shouldn't worry right now...

[PaulConventionWV]

What is your point? Are you trying to suggest that Ron's numbers MUCH higher than the poll suggests like ~20% or something? All I'm saying is that, yes, it's not accurate but it's not SOOO inaccurate that we should live in a bubble like we did last election thinking that the "actual" are numbers VERY different than the ones shown.

I'm pretty sure neither he nor anybody else said that.

[1836]

Maybe I am barking up the wrong tree amidst a room full of Austrian enthusiasts, but ordinal value has no meaning to us here. "2nd" or "3rd" is useless when that second or third is not going to show significant support come primary time.

We need to be shooting for numbers, like 15%, 20%, something like that. If we can achieve that level of support and hold it we will be in a much better position than floating around "second" or "third" way down in the single digits.

[pauladin]

hopefully bachmann will fall just like trump and cain after the she gets vetted. she is seriously gaffe-prone (just look at the john wayne gacy blunder).

[mit26chell]

It's frustrating seeing him sit stagnant with the same numbers, poll after poll. At least he's not dropping off, but I wish he could gain some traction like Bachmann.

[sailingaway]

NH is a lost cause. I really don't see why we should be devoting any more time to those confused people.

Our #1 focus should be Iowa. #2 focus should be South Carolina. #3 Nevada.

Ron should do well in NH, but they need to start vetting candidates. The problem is we are so focused on the Iowa straw poll, and I'm not sure people will be vetting candidates before then. Right now Bachmann is merely 'popular'.

[Esoteric]

The free state project has it's work cut out for them.

the free state project is comprised of anarchists who don't believe in voting. It's a shame, but they're mostly cut out of the "Stefan Molyneux" mold.

[gls]

the free state project is comprised of anarchists who don't believe in voting. It's a shame, but they're mostly cut out of the "Stefan Molyneux" mold.

Not true. Anarchist-leaning groups like "Free Keene" might get a lot of attention, but the majority of Free Stater's are inside-the-system activists who have had substantial success on the local and state levels (through groups like the New Hampshire Liberty Alliance). Just look at the New Hampshire forum on this website (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forumdisplay.php?253-New-Hampshire).

Most of these people are probably not expending a lot of energy on the primary however since local and state efforts pay much better dividends (compared to the national stage which is more or less hopeless at this point).

[libertygrl]

It's frustrating seeing him sit stagnant with the same numbers, poll after poll. At least he's not dropping off, but I wish he could gain some traction like Bachmann.

All he has to do is what Bachmann did. Say to the crowd, 'WE CAN BEAT OBAMA!!" Sadly, it seems more people are interested in hearing that more than anything else. :mad:

[HarryBrowneLives]

What all these polls tell me right now is Paul is third in the GOP primary field as of July 6 and it's not a bad place to be right on the cusp of Ames.

Politics can and will change in the blink of an eye. Anything can happen at any moment. We're 3rd right now in NH. Still have a lot of money to spend. More boots on the ground than just about anybody. The more Mittens fades the better we will be ... better yet, maybe it becomes a mudfest between Romney and American Girl up there and both negatives go up. One stumble. One gaffe. Who knows what can happen?

[KingRobbStark]

The best thing to do right now is to target Cain and Bachmann supporters.

[BUSHLIED]

Maybe I am barking up the wrong tree amidst a room full of Austrian enthusiasts, but ordinal value has no meaning to us here. "2nd" or "3rd" is useless when that second or third is not going to show significant support come primary time.

We need to be shooting for numbers, like 15%, 20%, something like that. If we can achieve that level of support and hold it we will be in a much better position than floating around "second" or "third" way down in the single digits.

I can assure you the grassroots are shooting for these types of numbers BUT the campaign has to pulls it weight. The grassroots made Ron Paul into what he is in terms of political exposure...those money-bombs in Nov and Dec...and the enthusiasm gave the political establishment a really good shake...everyone says those ron paul supporters are really enthusiastic and he can raise money online with those money bombs...we helped give Ron the platform to operate from...NOW it is the campaigns turn to turn a solid 7-9% base of support into 14-19%...this time around...seriously, the ball is in Ron's court. Furthermore, as a result of the grassroots the 2010 mid-terms gave the GOP the house and RON the chairmanship in that HFS sub-committee. Granted he threw his hat in the ring BUT we rang the bell...

Ron has everything he needs:

1. His son is a Senator, amazing well-liked too.
2. Chairman of House Financial Services Sub-Committee that oversees the FED, his biggest ISSUE personally to him.
3. Millions of Dollars (starting C4L with that seed money) and now another 5 million for private jets to Iowa and NH.
4. National wide exposure through multiple media interviews after 2008 until now.
5. Large enough army of grassroots that have won local elections and joined local gop committees.
6. Always enough of us in the debate crowd to cheer him on!
7. Youtube videos up the wazoo
8. Straw poll wins at CPAC twice and SRLC blow out!
9.
10.

The list goes on and on...the grassroots fueled his 2008 campaign like no other candidate in modern history???? He went from a NOBODY to a SOMEBODY....the grassroots people urged him to run reluctantly....

Time to set up campaign, we believe in you, make it happen!

[1836]

NOW it is the campaigns turn to turn a solid 7-9% base of support into 14-19%...this time around...seriously, the ball is in Ron's court.

I more or less agree completely, except that Ron Paul isn't going to change much. His campaign staff really carries the onus of making this run more successful, or not. RP is a stubborn old guy we all love and if you think he is going to become Rand Paul overnight, well, he isn't.

[BUSHLIED]

I more or less agree completely, except that Ron Paul isn't going to change much. His campaign staff really carries the onus of making this run more successful, or not. RP is a stubborn old guy we all love and if you think he is going to become Rand Paul overnight, well, he isn't.

he is stubborn BUT someone has got to kick him in the ASS!!!

Tell me what the campaign can really do anyway, their hands are tied...they can only build a large ground game/campaign infrastructure and make sure they run quality ads...actually they can schedule him for more visits in IOWA and NH...were are the Ron Paul rallies to get the base excited again???? make some statements at the rallies bashing Obama... if not I hope Rand does the dirty work