New WMUR NH poll: Romney 35, Bachmann 12, Paul 7, Rudy 7, Perry 4.

[MRoCkEd]

http://i.imgur.com/5BCvz.png
http://i.imgur.com/Hyg2g.png
http://i.imgur.com/WA2ly.png

Video Link:
http://www.wmur.com/r-video/28454141/detail.html

[1836]

This would seem to be positive in some respect, because although neither we nor Bachmann have fluctuated above or below previous polling in terms of the margin of error, Romney has definitely come DOWN a bit.

Maybe the best we are going to be able to get in New Hampshire is a 2nd or 3rd place finish at around 15-20%. However, I think it is worthwhile to note that Bachmann has not "taken off there" and neither has anyone else. Romney more or less has the home field advantage.

Not such a bad poll.

[Esoteric]

This would seem to be positive in some respect, because although neither we nor Bachmann have fluctuated above or below previous polling in terms of the margin of error, Romney has definitely come DOWN a bit.

Maybe the best we are going to be able to get in New Hampshire is a 2nd or 3rd place finish at around 15-20%. However, I think it is worthwhile to note that Bachmann has not "taken off there" and neither has anyone else. Romney more or less has the home field advantage.

Not such a bad poll.

It all depends on whether or not Ron has his own catalyst (Ames straw poll). I fear we won't do enough to make this happen.

[Echoes]

Not good news, but still early. How the heck is Giuliani polling so high, Is he even running ?

[johnrocks]

If Wiki is accurate, he got 7.65% in 08 and Romney came in second behind McCain with 31.57%;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries#New_Hampshire_primary ; got a ton of work ahead.

[BrendenR]

If Wiki is accurate, he got 7.65% in 08 and Romney came in second behind McCain with 31.57%;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries#New_Hampshire_primary ; got a ton of work ahead.

Ron Paul 18,308 7.65%

18,308 people! we need to id these people, we need to get them volunteering, door knocking, whatever.

[puppetmaster]

Sad

[HOLLYWOOD]

VERY SAD... barely eeking out against candidates not even running.

The marketing and sales departments need new management.

Where the hell is the campaign against Liberal/Progressive Corporatist Romney?

[ForLiberty2012]

Don't listen to the polls guys... just keep fighting for liberty... it will win in the end.

[speciallyblend]

keep up the fight but back up plan vote for anyone but obama and the gop establishment!! The gop will elect obama!

[AJ Antimony]

So... can we run attack ads yet?

[1836]

So... can we run attack ads yet?

Don't fire til' you see the whites of their eyes.

[sailingaway]

I'm hoping we are still seeing part of her announcement 'bump' with the huge amount of media she's gotten, but the problem is there is nothing except the debate between here and the straw poll, and people have to be identified for the straw poll before then, even assuming Ron has a strong performance and hers isn't as great.

I also am wondering what her fundraising was, since if she were going to hide it the thing to do would have been to announce it last Friday before the holiday weekend.

In any event, we need a catalyst for Ron, or people need to vet her, and I'm not sure they'd do that until just before they vote. At this point it is just positive feeling, but now is when the straw poll is, so we have work to do.

Love that Ron is still nearly double Perry, though. What are they THINKING with him?

[AdamT]

I'm curious where McCain and Romney were polling here last time around.

[kah13176]

Not good news.

We've been stuck at a damned 7% since early 2008.

[speciallyblend]

Not good news.

We've been stuck at a damned 7% since early 2008.

your dealing with a corrupt and blinded biggov gop! nothing new!

[freedoms-light]

NH the live chained and cry state.

[IndianaPolitico]

I'm hoping we are still seeing part of her announcement 'bump' with the huge amount of media she's gotten, but the problem is there is nothing except the debate between here and the straw poll, and people have to be identified for the straw poll before then, even assuming Ron has a strong performance and hers isn't as great.

I also am wondering what her fundraising was, since if she were going to hide it the thing to do would have been to announce it last Friday before the holiday weekend.

In any event, we need a catalyst for Ron, or people need to vet her, and I'm not sure they'd do that until just before they vote. At this point it is just positive feeling, but now is when the straw poll is, so we have work to do.

Love that Ron is still nearly double Perry, though. What are they THINKING with him?


I think that it is the announcement bump, just look at Cain. He was up very high in the polls, but now is near the bottom. Same with Gingrich....

[falconplayer11]

Not good news.

We've been stuck at a damned 7% since early 2008.

To be honest, I didn't expect much different. As much as it may seem like we are doing better this time around, truth is, hardly ever do I run across someone in my city who knows who Ron Paul is. If they do know who he is, they say he's crazy. Everyone knows who Romney, Bachmann, and Giuliani are. We'll do better this time around, but once the others start to drop off, all the voters will consolidate under the neocon candidate.

[sailingaway]

I think that it is the announcement bump, just look at Cain. He was up very high in the polls, but now is near the bottom. Same with Gingrich....

Well, Rand is going to be campaigning in Iowa with the Senate out of session... Which is great, since Ron can only be there so much. Also, different people are drawn to them to some extent. Might shake up some ideas. I really wish the guy could formally be Ron's VP.

Bachmann timed her honeymoon for right before the straw poll. Not so great for organization, maybe, but she's actually been organizing since January, going after the tea party organizations already there.

[sailingaway]

To be honest, I didn't expect much different. As much as it may seem like we are doing better this time around, truth is, hardly ever do I run across someone in my city who knows who Ron Paul is. If they do know who he is, they say he's crazy. Everyone knows who Romney, Bachmann, and Giuliani are.

What city is that? Ron has about 80% name recognition now, and was higher than Bachmann in New Hampshire before this late bump (and I don't think Bachmann will keep that once they start vetting her, there.) In the west Ron is going to do a bunch better than Bachmann, but the Southern states and Iowa come first, unfortunately.

It's still early, but we do want to shake things up before the straw poll.

[Restore-America-NOW]

Why can't we break 7%???????

[sailingaway]

Why can't we break 7%???????

We have, he's been 10%, 13%, 12%....

But right now Bachmann is having a very well timed and well played moment. In the long run, she'll be vetted, but meanwhile there is the straw poll, and as I said, she timed it well.

[Kregisen]

Keep trying guys...don't give up, we're still in this. And look at it this way: tied for 3rd out of 11 candidates.

Let's see how we do in the Ames Straw Poll....if we win or get 2nd in that, we'll get a boost which will help us in the Iowa Caucus, which will boost us in the New Hampshire primary....one step at a time.

[libertybrewcity]

3rd place is great. Ads will help, the debates will help. Right now Bachmann is coming down from her "bump high". I'd say Ron Paul has anywhere from 7-15% of the vote. We need to do some major campaigning and microtargeting.

[Eric21ND]

Poor a few attack ads in NH about Romney and he could very well tank.

[stefank]

Poor a few attack ads in NH about Romney and he could very well tank.
Some Tea Party groups are going to help provide anti-Romney ads

Nonetheless, this month, FreedomWorks, which brought in $14 million last year, signaled it will mobilize tea party voters against Romney in states holding presidential primaries after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation contest. Another, much smaller tea party group, Western Representation PAC, hopes to mount a $500,000 Stop Romney Campaign that will focus on New Hampshire and include radio and television ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57674.html#ixzz1RIOaEa7c

[sailingaway]

3rd place is great. Ads will help, the debates will help. Right now Bachmann is coming down from her "bump high". I'd say Ron Paul has anywhere from 7-15% of the vote. We need to do some major campaigning and microtargeting.


WTF? Third? Let's win this thing!

Whose phone banking for Iowa? You can sign up at IowaforRonPaul.com by going to the 'get involved' tab, Steve Bierfeldt invited us.

[RP Supporter]

If Ron can win Ames and have a strong showing in Iowa(say top 3), that should boost his campaign in NH. Bachmann's star will fade I suspect, especially if we win the Straw poll and can become the conservative alternative to Romney which gets Ron ahead of her in NH.

Everything needs to be put into Iowa right now. That's supposed to be Bachmann's "heartland." She falls apart and gets upset there, it's over for her.

[Keith and stuff]

What city is that? Ron has about 80% name recognition now, and was higher than Bachmann in New Hampshire before this late bump (and I don't think Bachmann will keep that once they start vetting her, there.) In the west Ron is going to do a bunch better than Bachmann, but the Southern states and Iowa come first, unfortunately.

It's still early, but we do want to shake things up before the straw poll.

WMUR is the state network TV channel (there is only one in NH). It's located in Manchester, if that is what you mean.

[Pauls' Revere]

Seriously? Giuliani?

LOL

[Keith and stuff]

NH the live chained and cry state.

Ron Paul was 2nd in the last NH poll. He was 3rd in this poll out of 12 or more candidates. 3rd place out or 12 or more is good. He did better in NH in 2008 than in most of the other early primary states.

NH is the freest state in the US. I admit, NH could be much more free and the motto live free or die isn't accurate, but it fits NH more than anywhere else. Several dozen pro-liberty bills passed in NH this year. More will pass later this year and a bunch more will pass next year.

[Harry96]

I'm still enthusiastically supporting Ron, and anything can happen, but we all need a bite of a reality sandwich occasionally. As I see it, we have two problems that are probably insurmountable:

1. The mainstream media's ability to form public opinion, while undermined somewhat by the Internet, is still massive. I still see msm reports of the GOP field that don't even mention Ron. I saw one on MSNBC the other day about the Q2 fundraising totals, and Ron -- who I believe came in second, behind Romney -- wasn't even mentioned.

Some say it's still early, but that's cause for concern, not for optimism; the kind of people who vote, but who don't pay close attention to politics until right before an election, are exactly the kind of people who vote for whoever the media tells them to.

2. The main freedom that many -- maybe most -- people want is freedom from responsibility. People have been dumbed down in government schools, reinforced by the media, to worship government, and they generally want as much of it as they can get. They neither know, nor care, anything about the nature of government nor about natural rights. Joel Skousen, who's been studying this for longer than I've been alive and who's a big fan of Ron, has made this point often: in his opinion, Ron is probably never going to convince more than 5-10% of the voters to vote for him, no matter what he does.

[Harry96]

Oh, and as the previous poster mentioned, NH is supposed to be one of the freest, most libertarian-minded states, and Ron is polling at 7%. As I recall, he got about 8% of the vote there in 2008.

[Kregisen]

I think New Hampshire and Texas are pretty close for the most libertarian state.

[Echoes]

I think New Hampshire and Texas are pretty close for the most libertarian state.

Some would say Idaho or the Dakotas.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Don't listen to the polls guys... just keep fighting for liberty... it will win in the end.

This is what most of us here kept saying last time but the polls turned out to be pretty accurate so don't discard these results completely, they're likely pretty accurate so we definitely do have some work ahead, winning Ames would definitely help though.


NH the live chained and cry state.

"Libertarian state" heh? lol


I think that it is the announcement bump, just look at Cain. He was up very high in the polls, but now is near the bottom. Same with Gingrich....


Well, Rand is going to be campaigning in Iowa with the Senate out of session... Which is great, since Ron can only be there so much. Also, different people are drawn to them to some extent. Might shake up some ideas. I really wish the guy could formally be Ron's VP.

Bachmann timed her honeymoon for right before the straw poll. Not so great for organization, maybe, but she's actually been organizing since January, going after the tea party organizations already there.

Yeah, I hope Bachmann will go down just like Cain has. But the silver lining again is that we've like 8-10% that are NOT going to jump the ship, they're steadfast & very loyal to Ron but we need to attract mainstream GOP voters because like someone said, they think Ron is crazy, we need a mainstreamer like Rand who'll speak their language & get them around.

Rand definitely needs to be declared VP BEFORE the primaries for us to have any chance but I'd hope that they don't expose him too much before the Ames, Ron should win Ames on his own since there's a good chance that he may considering our enthusiasm & performances at straw polls so we get that Ames-win bump & then a little bit later we should declare Rand as VP & that should really get the campaign moving.

[Keith and stuff]

I think New Hampshire and Texas are pretty close for the most libertarian state.

Texas has no personal income or corporate income and a very good business policies. That's very uncommon. Texas has also a stretch of interstate that has a high speed limit. It also has very decent home schooling laws. TX doesn't stand out in any other way. It's not one of the freest state or even close.


Some would say Idaho or the Dakotas.

ID and SD, yeah, I could see decent cases for those states. Those states and even ND stand out when it comes to economic freedom. Of course, after dozens of pro-liberty bills passed in NH this year, with more to come, I don't think any place can compare.

http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011
# 1. New Hampshire http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011/NH
# 2. South Dakota http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011/SD
# 3. Indiana
# 4. Idaho http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011/ID
# 5. Missouri
# 6. Nevada
# 7. Colorado
# 8. Oregon
# 9. Virginia
# 10. North Dakota http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011/ND
# 11. Florida
# 12. Oklahoma
# 13. Iowa
# 14. Texas http://mercatus.org/freedom-50-states-2011/TX

Though, how free a state is doesn't relate 100% with how the voters that live there vote. Some of the towns in NH with more Democratic voters than near-by towns actually have lower property taxes than the near-by towns with more Republican voters.


"Libertarian state" heh? lol

While it's true that even elected Democrats in NH say that NH has a libertarian streak when it makes them look good, the Libertarian Party isn't strong in NH. It's true that back in the 1990's the LP was pretty strong in NH. There were 4 LP members in the NH State House and they even had their own caucus back then. However, most libertarian minded folks now run as Republicans in NH. Heck, I think a dozen or so of the libertarians, which happen to be NH state reps, even endorsed Ron Paul.

[BUSHLIED]

Here is the running averages over the last several polls. We are nipping on Bachmann's high heels...a win in IOWA and second place finish in NH will shake the GOP fields...i think this is best we can hope for going into Super Tuesday. A bump in these two states can help in NV but I have serious doubts about a TOP 3 in SC...I suppose the big question is were do the Giulini and Palin votes go to...I suspect Giuliani voters go to Romney and Palin voters spilt among the tea-party candidates...

37.7 Romney
11.0 Bachmann
8.3 Paul
-----------------
6.0 Giuliani
4.7 Palin
3.3 Pawlenty
3.0 Perry
3.0 Huntsman
2.7 Cain
2.0Gringrich

[1836]

That sounds great BUSHLIED but probably unrealistic. A pair of second place finishes, or one second and one third place finish, in Iowa and New Hampshire would do a great deal for our candidacy as well.

Winning one of those two states is probably a stretch. I think our likely campaign strategy beyond New Hampshire and Iowa is to be positioned as the second or third place candidate, at which point we will be able to pick up some states in the national primary (whatever is Super Tuesday in 2012) and maybe take this thing down the stretch.

It is a real longshot regardess, of course, but I think that if we were going to win, we would take it over the top, to paraphrase Pat Buchanan.

[KingRobbStark]

Why the hell does Romney continue to do this well? What kind of a dumbass would vote for him?

[Keith and stuff]

He is the most moderate Republican running and a decent percent of Republicans, especially in areas outside of the Southeast and especially in the Northeast, are moderates. He also has the much of the LDS vote. He has some of the country club Republican vote because that's what he is. He also has a house in NH and lives in NH part time. His full time residence is in MA and he is a former MA governor. The MSM likes him.

It would help Ron Paul if some of the other candidates that are well liked by Republican Liberty Caucus/ Club for Growth, Tea Party type voters would drop out of the race. For example, if Cain dropped out, Paul maybe be able to pick up a large percentage of Cain's former supporters. The same is true if Perry decides not to run. If Johnson drops out, Paul may be able to pick up most of his supporters.

[BUSHLIED]

That sounds great BUSHLIED but probably unrealistic. A pair of second place finishes, or one second and one third place finish, in Iowa and New Hampshire would do a great deal for our candidacy as well.

Winning one of those two states is probably a stretch. I think our likely campaign strategy beyond New Hampshire and Iowa is to be positioned as the second or third place candidate, at which point we will be able to pick up some states in the national primary (whatever is Super Tuesday in 2012) and maybe take this thing down the stretch.

It is a real longshot regardess, of course, but I think that if we were going to win, we would take it over the top, to paraphrase Pat Buchanan.


No, I completely agree, unrealistic for sure...but this is probably the best we could do under ideal circumstances...my assumption obviously is that the local ground game (organizational strength) has at least doubled in its strength from the levels of 2008. It is likely that Ron Paul's base from 2008 has remained the same, so you hope that with the issues moving in Ron's direction, his base only expanded by picking up more independent voters. Which looking at the polls this year suggests is true. The question that remains to be answered is HOW big of pick that really is.

[Badger Paul]

"Why can't we break 7%??????? "

Because a large group of people have been told again and again "he can't win" or "he's fringe". Well, who's going to support such a campaign except for the diehards?

Americans are bandwagon people. Love a winner, can't stand a loser. Well, luckily Iowa is a state where we have a chance to prove ourselves winners and if we do the average voter will flock to us and our polls will go up as a result.

[speciallyblend]

Why the hell does Romney continue to do this well? What kind of a dumbass would vote for him?

the same folks that voted for bush or obama!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tA8ykjJpOE8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tA8ykjJpOE8

[BUSHLIED]

He is the most moderate Republican running and a decent percent of Republicans, especially in areas outside of the Southeast and especially in the Northeast, are moderates. He also has the much of the LDS vote. He has some of the country club Republican vote because that's what he is. He also has a house in NH and lives in NH part time. His full time residence is in MA and he is a former MA governor. The MSM likes him.

It would help Ron Paul if some of the other candidates that are well liked by Republican Liberty Caucus/ Club for Growth, Tea Party type voters would drop out of the race. For example, if Cain dropped out, Paul maybe be able to pick up a large percentage of Cain's former supporters. The same is true if Perry decides not to run. If Johnson drops out, Paul may be able to pick up most of his supporters.


Yeah, if Johnson and Cain dropped, Ron would pick up another 1-3% nationally but what matters more is how those same voters in IOWA and NH break. My sense is that Cain voters in IOWA are not the same as Cain voters in CA..so they would break for different candidates. What is most important to know is WHY these individuals are supporting Cain or Johnson...AGAIN this is where the Ron Paul Pollster has to gather this type of information. it is this internal polling survey that I hope is done and released to the grassroots so that we can TAILOR our efforts. Competent polling is essential to WIN because it provides you with data to make decisions and makes OUR efforts more likely to convert voters.

I think the efforts of the Robo-Polls are great and we should continue to fund them. When I have money I will definitely get in touch with that guy but my criteria would be to have a large enough population to get 500 replies respondents.

[trey4sports]

That sounds great BUSHLIED but probably unrealistic. A pair of second place finishes, or one second and one third place finish, in Iowa and New Hampshire would do a great deal for our candidacy as well.

Winning one of those two states is probably a stretch. I think our likely campaign strategy beyond New Hampshire and Iowa is to be positioned as the second or third place candidate, at which point we will be able to pick up some states in the national primary (whatever is Super Tuesday in 2012) and maybe take this thing down the stretch.

It is a real longshot regardess, of course, but I think that if we were going to win, we would take it over the top, to paraphrase Pat Buchanan.

If we don't win one early state, we wont win at all.

[LibertyEagle]

WTF? Third? Let's win this thing!

Whose phone banking for Iowa? You can sign up at IowaforRonPaul.com by going to the 'get involved' tab, Steve Bierfeldt invited us.

I signed up. It's a piece of cake, people. Steve will give you a script and all.

[Travlyr]

Video Link:
http://www.wmur.com/r-video/28454141/detail.html


Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney continues to lead a field of Republican presidential candidates, according to the latest WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
University of New Hampshire eh? Hummmmm.....

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/video/28454141/detail.html#ixzz1RKhwtw5l


Isn't it interesting that other than the picture of Ron Paul at 7% this video, poll, and report completely ignore Ron Paul's campaign for president?

They show video of "front runner" Romney, Pawlenty, Cain, Huntsman, and Bachman (calling her the Tea Party favorite) actively campaigning, then they show the "poll losers" and there is a picture of what looks like a Ron Paul picture from 2008 with a measly 7% and make a point that Giuliani has 7% and is not even in the race.

More about the bottom 1%, then back to video of Newt and his terrible showing.

NOT ONE MENTION OF RON PAUL, no video of him campaigning, no commentary, no vocal verification that he is in the race, nothing... completely ignoring everything except his 7% support.

The biggest loser in this poll, imo, is pollster Andy Smith and the "WMUR TV-9 news crews." Ron Paul deserved an honorable mention.

Are we going to have to go to our local "news" outlets and picket for equal time? The local stations are the gatekeepers.

[Travlyr]

Margin of error +/- 5.2%?

That doesn't seem to be a very accurate poll. That much margin of error could put Ron Paul in second place, right?

[Harry96]

This is exactly the kind of thing I'm referring to:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/07/typical-cable-evil/

[Canderson]

There wasn't much fight for the TP label when the MSM ordained Bachmann, thats where the structural problem started.

[Imaginos]

1. The mainstream media's ability to form public opinion, while undermined somewhat by the Internet, is still massive. I still see msm reports of the GOP field that don't even mention Ron. I saw one on MSNBC the other day about the Q2 fundraising totals, and Ron -- who I believe came in second, behind Romney -- wasn't even mentioned.

MSM is our enemy number one and how to neutralize MSM is the key for all of us who have awakened.
MSM works for the establishment and does all their dirty bids.

[newyearsrevolution08]

Wow polls really mess with you guys don't they. No wonder they work so well with the sheep.

Come on, its a poll but we have A TON that still needs to be done if we are going to get PASSED the msm hold over the current campaign and political efforts.

We will GET our country back in 2012

Ron Paul or Bust