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tsai3904
06-28-2011, 09:02 AM
Montana (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/more-bachmann-surge.html)
6/16 - 6/19
382 usual Republican primary voters
+/-5.0%

With Palin:

Palin 20%
Bachmann 18%
Romney 17%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 9%
Cain 8%
Pawlenty 7%
Huntsman 4%


Without Palin:

Bachmann 25%
Romney 22%
Gingrich 11%
Paul 10%
Pawlenty 9%
Cain 8%
Huntsman 4%


Results from last Montana poll:

Montana (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/montana-republican-numbers.html)
11/10 - 11/13/10
545
+/-4.2%

Palin 23%
Huckabee 22%
Gingrich 16%
Romney 12%
Paul 9%
Pawlenty 3%
Thune 3%
Daniels 2%

sailingaway
06-28-2011, 09:10 AM
OK, this is awful. Bachmann above Ron in MONTANA? Hopefully that is only because she isn't vetted yet. Montana voting for someone who voted for the Patriot Act simply doesn't compute in my mind.

I truly don't get Gingrich picking up more of Palin's vote than Ron, either.

rp08orbust
06-28-2011, 09:12 AM
OK, this is awful. Bachmann above Ron in MONTANA? Hopefully that is only because she isn't vetted yet. Montana and the Patriot Act simply don't go together in my mind.

I truly don't get Gingrich picking up more of Palin's vote than Ron, either.

Same with Oregon.

Also note that PPP is finally doing polls in Ron Paul country now that there's a candidate stealing his votes.

sailingaway
06-28-2011, 09:16 AM
Also note that PPP is finally doing polls in Ron Paul country now that there's a candidate stealing his votes.

Oh, yeah, I noticed. They outright SKIPPED the primary questions or didn't publish them, in Washington state when it could have helped his momentum.

Well, we clearly have work to do. At least in Montana we CAN do it.... but PPP won't poll again now for a long time, even if MB drops.

And note how long ago this was taken, this is from over a week ago.

Delaying it extends her window.

And notice that 'usual Republican voters' is a different question from 'are you likely to vote in the primary THIS time'. If they looked at historical practices to screen whom they polled, that could make a BIG difference.

eduardo89
06-28-2011, 09:43 AM
This poll sucks, the only consolation is Mitt's support doesn't increase at all without Palin. It shows that he has his followers, and there are a lot of them, but apart from that, his appeal is limited. He won't win over Tea Party folk or social conservatives, so when Bachmann finally drops out Ron can swoop in and be the front runner.

sailingaway
06-28-2011, 09:53 AM
This poll sucks, the only consolation is Mitt's support doesn't increase at all without Palin. It shows that he has his followers, and there are a lot of them, but apart from that, his appeal is limited. He won't win over Tea Party folk or social conservatives, so when Bachmann finally drops out Ron can swoop in and be the front runner.

Bachmann won't drop out with this kind of support. The question is whether the support will crater when she is vetted, as Cain's did. No one knows her, yet.

RonPaulCult
06-28-2011, 10:10 AM
Bachmann won't drop out with this kind of support. The question is whether the support will crater when she is vetted, as Cain's did. No one knows her, yet.

Sit back, relax. She's getting a lot of attention in the media right now. It's a boost that won't last forever.

oyarde
06-28-2011, 10:33 AM
OK, this is awful. Bachmann above Ron in MONTANA? Hopefully that is only because she isn't vetted yet. Montana voting for someone who voted for the Patriot Act simply doesn't compute in my mind.

I truly don't get Gingrich picking up more of Palin's vote than Ron, either.

Makes no sense to me .

acptulsa
06-28-2011, 10:38 AM
A disappointing result indeed from the state that recreated the tea party. We do have work to do.


And notice that 'usual Republican voters' is a different question from 'are you likely to vote in the primary THIS time'. If they looked at historical practices to screen whom they polled, that could make a BIG difference.

In some states more than others. In Oregon, which is full of disaffected liberals and (iirc) has open primaries, the poll will be far more inaccurate than this poll of a red state.


Makes no sense to me .

Unfortunately, it does to me. I don't think of either a Palin or a Gingrich vote as carefully considered, informed and principled...

Aratus
06-28-2011, 10:41 AM
methinks the pivotal voter block at the GOP convention
is going to be tea party. right now it looks like a 3-way
or 4-way split. if mitt romney can't pull at everyone else's
supports come the convention, a 'dark horse' may emerge.
a ballot driven convention MIGHT hand RON PAUL the GOP
nomination. i think we need to remain competative with all
"tea party" candidates without getting their supporters PO'ED!

acptulsa
06-28-2011, 10:44 AM
i think we need to remain competitive with all
"tea party" candidates without getting their supporters PO'ED!

You don't ask much, do you? We will be accused of hijacking the G.O.P. no matter how much we help it grow--and win--in the process...

Aratus
06-28-2011, 10:50 AM
there are days when we need to take the high road, and
yes... we usually ARE the heart & soul of the high road!!!

Aratus
06-28-2011, 11:07 AM
You don't ask much, do you? We will be accused of hijacking the G.O.P.
no matter how much we help it grow--and win--in the process...


if mitt romney can't galvanize ALL the GOP delegates come the convention, i
feel if there are four or five voting blocks, DR. RON PAUL could carry the day!!!
newt gingrich went thru one million dollars and is about to be sent to the bench.
nearly all the debaters in N.H were saying things very similar to REP. RON PAUL!!!
if the RNC is about to shift away from Elder and Younger Bush in a big way, how is
this a hijacking if the nearly the whole REPUBLICAN PARTY is on the same page i ask?

acptulsa
06-28-2011, 11:09 AM
...how is this a hijacking if the nearly the whole REPUBLICAN PARTY is on the same page i ask?

Don't ask me, lady. I don't create the attitudes I see around me, I just report them.

Badger Paul
06-28-2011, 11:53 AM
Luckily Montana is a caucus state and takes place in early June of 2012, so this poll really doesn't matter.

TheTyke
06-28-2011, 12:21 PM
I just don't believe this. We got 25% last time, and PPP also showed Conway tied with Rand before the 2nd Randslide.

BUT if this lights a fire under us and gets us working harder, I will take it. We have a chance to win, but it will take efforts like we've never made before!

BUSHLIED
06-28-2011, 12:36 PM
This poll is actually one that is no good. The sample size is small <500 and the margin of error is +/- 5% which creates doubt about the surveys validity. Ron statistically, could be polling at 15% without Palin...

The polling surveys you want to look at more seriously are those that are greater than 500 participants and with a margin of error equal to or less than +/-3%. These criteria are the most important to getting confident results. Furthermore, we don't know if they selected a random sample of usual voters. The random sampling is the MOST important aspect to the polling process. Otherwise, you could have biased or skewed result distorting Ron true level of support.

Ok here we go:

PPP surveyed 262 usual Oregon Republican primary voters from June 19th to 21st. The
margin of error for the survey is +/-6.1%. PPP surveyed 382 usual Montana Republican
primary voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5%. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic
polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its
surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.


You have to immediately dismiss the Oregon polling survey as inaccurate due to the sample size and the margin of error.

AJ Antimony
06-28-2011, 01:08 PM
First Huckabee was at the top of the polls, then it was Trump, then it was Cain, now it is Bachmann.

What's interesting is that when Cain and Bachmann shot to the top of the polls, it was solely from having a 'great' debate performance. Then Cain tanked in the 2nd debate and fell in the polls. It'll be interesting to see if the same happens to Bachmann in her 2nd debate.

Assuming this trend is legitimate, I would suggest Ron Paul prepare harder than he ever has before for the next debate. If he comes out as actually impressing typical GOP primary voters, he may get his own post-debate bump in the polls.

All in all, however, I would still say screw polls like this. The poll you MUST win at this point is Ames. Forget about PPP and focus on winning Ames.

Ireland4Liberty
06-28-2011, 01:16 PM
Bachmann is a ticking timebomb. The only thing that worries me is if she will be vetted properly. The 'debates' suck. The need to have actual debates not letting the candidates spout pre-learned talking points.

nayjevin
06-28-2011, 01:43 PM
You have to immediately dismiss the Oregon polling survey as inaccurate due to the sample size and the margin of error.
^^

Whatever the presumed narrative will be, some poll will be available to 'establish' that. The illusion of credibility is sufficient for many casual observers.

Polling has become a tool for manipulating opinion rather than gauging it. A purely informative science that becomes a distortion when the human element and political interests are introduced. Similar to economics.

fatjohn
06-28-2011, 01:48 PM
Ron is getting some love from the ladies though. Probably an abberation with the small polling sample.

Feeding the Abscess
06-28-2011, 04:19 PM
Why don't people understand that there simply isn't much overlap between the Palin and Paul camps? One is principled, one is not. Bachmann and Palin not only sound alike tonally, but the words out of their mouths are also similar. It's no surprise that Palin supporters would go to Bachmann over Ron.

sailingaway
06-28-2011, 04:45 PM
Why don't people understand that there simply isn't much overlap between the Palin and Paul camps? One is principled, one is not. Bachmann and Palin not only sound alike tonally, but the words out of their mouths are also similar. It's no surprise that Palin supporters would go to Bachmann over Ron.

by all means, lets turn off the supporters of both in one fell swoop....:rolleyes:

Esoteric
06-28-2011, 05:14 PM
Ahem... We need a catalyst, or else it's clear that we cannot break through this 10% ceiling. Ames or bust. Everyone reading this post should be making phone calls into Iowa Independents and Democrats dialy, using rp2012.org, to recruit for the straw poll. Let it not be said that you did nothing..

Feeding the Abscess
06-28-2011, 11:58 PM
by all means, lets turn off the supporters of both in one fell swoop....:rolleyes:

I'm sorry, but I won't contribute to the appearance of acceptability that some in our movement are lending Bachmann. She is establishment Republican through and through, and thanks to some in our movement praising her, she is lent unearned credentials and accolades. This whole movement was about getting away from these types; there is absolutely zero point in this movement if we're going to suck up to Palin and Bachmann sensibilities.

This train of thought, of accepting and even embracing our philosophical rivals, is akin to the calls for Ron to stop talking about foreign policy, to stop talking about people having the freedom to use drugs; it's cutting off our momentum at the knees. A candidate argues from the philosophy of liberty or they do not. Ron does, Palin and Bachmann do not.

The establishment needs to be opposed, not embraced.