Very important Iowa poll will be released tonight at 10 pm est

[tsai3904]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/what-the-des-moines-register-poll-will-tell-us-and-what-it-wont/2011/06/23/AGGwMRhH_blog.html


The Register poll, conducted by the esteemed J. Ann Selzer, is widely regarded as the benchmark for where things stand in the Hawkeye State.

The poll was conducted between June 19 and 22 and results will be posted here at 10 pm est: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/

EDIT: Results released:

Iowa (http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/)
6/19 - 6/22
400 likely caucus-goers
+/-4.9%

Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Paul 7%
Gingrich 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

[libertybrewcity]

lol, watch them not even include Ron Paul

[sailingaway]

Hm.

[libertythor]

lol, watch them not even include Ron Paul

I am pretty sure that they will. What probably won't include him will be the articles written about the poll.

[Esoteric]

Prediction:

1) Bachmann
2) Pawlenty
3) Cain
4) Romney
5) Paul

[trey4sports]

My guess....

Romney 24%

Bachmann 18%

Paul 10%

Pawlenty 9%

Cain 8%

Huntsman 3%

Not Sure 28%

[Paul4Prez]

Prediction:

1) Bachmann
2) Pawlenty
3) Cain
4) Romney
5) Paul

Hopefully they will leave out Palin and Perry. Undoubtedly they will leave out Gary Johnson. My prediction:

1) Romney
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Pawlenty
5) Gingrich
6) Cain
7) Santorum
8) Huntsman

[sailingaway]

I don't think Romney has been running #1 in Iowa, has he? And I hope they don't leave out Palin. We get a percent or two, but Bachmann gets more, when they take her out.

I don't want to guess, to be honest.

[trey4sports]

I don't think Romney has been running #1 in Iowa, has he? And I hope they don't leave out Palin. We get a percent or two, but Bachmann gets more, when they take her out.

I don't want to guess, to be honest.

Yes, Romney has been running first in Iowa, only from name recognition though.

[Paul4Prez]

A good disclaimer on the results, from Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post article linked in the opening post:


Moment in time, not a predictor:The biggest mistake people make with any poll is to assume that it’s meant to predict who will eventually win. Campaigns and candidates matter and, particularly in a race that will get the amount of media attention of this caucus race, the state of play will shift multiple times between now and February 2012. Look back at the first caucus poll the Register did — in May 2007 — in the 2008 race. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards led the Democratic field with 27 percent while then Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) took 20 percent and 19 percent respectively. The numbers in the GOP field from that time are even more illuminating about the changeability of the caucuses: Romney led with 29 percent followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain who each took 16 percent. Huckabee didn’t even break double digits.

Too bad none of the media analysts make that point when they want to dismiss Ron Paul's chances.

[Cleaner44]

Hopefully they will leave out Palin and Perry. Undoubtedly they will leave out Gary Johnson. My prediction:

1) Romney
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Pawlenty
5) Gingrich
6) Cain
7) Santorum
8) Huntsman

It would be nice if they would leave out Palin. She is not running and has never expressed a will to run that I have seen.

[sailingaway]

A good disclaimer on the results, from Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post article linked in the opening post:



Too bad none of the media analysts make that point when they want to dismiss Ron Paul's chances.

Actually, that sort of disclaimer makes it possible Ron's numbers aren't terrible. But who knows. They don't like something about it, I suspect.

[Cleaner44]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/what-the-des-moines-register-poll-will-tell-us-and-what-it-wont/2011/06/23/AGGwMRhH_blog.html



The poll was conducted between June 19 and 22 and results will be posted here at 10 pm est: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/

Kathie's take on Ron Paul
Ron Paul’s best strategy in Iowa as of may 2011: Ron Paul is positioned to improve on his fifth-place finish in the 2008 caucuses by having a ready-made organization, Campaign for Liberty. But he first has to prove wrong his critics who say he has no chance to grow his base of support. He doesn’t have to win the caucuses, but he needs to beat expectations by cracking into the top three. He needs strong college-student turnout and must bring newcomers into the caucus process.
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/candidates/ron-paul/


Cracking the top three is very doable.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I am pretty sure that they will. What probably won't include him will be the articles written about the poll.


Actually, that sort of disclaimer makes it possible Ron's numbers aren't terrible. But who knows. They don't like something about it, I suspect.

+1 to both

[BUSHLIED]

Prediction:

I left out Romney and Huntsman

1. Bachman by 3% over Paw double-digits
2. Pawlenty double digits
3. Cain by 1% over Paul
4. Paul
5. Gringrich
6. Santorum

[Esoteric]

Hopefully setting the bar low will be cause for a little excitement when he beats our paltry expectations.. one can hope lol

[trey4sports]

bump for enthusiasm.

[BUSHLIED]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

[TheTyke]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

Ack! Hate to say it, but we need to visit IA more.... and we already have more than last time!

[Napoleon's Shadow]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12
That may be true, but Gingrich isn't competing in the straw poll, Bachmann just started out, no one knows who Santorum is etc... I still say we've got a good shot.

[TrueFreedom]

Looks like it will be disappointing. I just saw a tweet that said the results were Romney 23, Bachmann 22, Cain 10, Gingrich 7, Paul 7, Pawlenty 6, Santorum 4. Whether or not it's legit we'll see.

[tsai3904]

Looks like it will be disappointing. I just saw a tweet that said the results were Romney 23, Bachmann 22, Cain 10, Gingrich 7, Paul 7, Pawlenty 6, Santorum 4. Whether or not it's legit we'll see.

Results have been released. I updated the first post with the results.

[TrueFreedom]

Yup it was right. http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/

Ron is tied with Gingrich for fourth at 7%.

[BUSHLIED]

Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%

--Margin of error 4.9%, 400 likely Republican caucus-goers.

Looks like we are in a tough fight competing for 3rd place at IOWA. You can kiss 1st or 2nd goodbye.

[Maximus]

I can't believe Cain is still at 10%, he was definitely strong after the first debate, but there isn't any buzz around him anymore that I can tell. Especially on twitter.

[sailingaway]

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

The other candidates tested register in single digits: former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired an A-list team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa.


http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/

Dang. Even in MB's announcement window, I expected Ron higher than CAIN, and closer.

[BUSHLIED]

I can't believe Cain is still at 10%, he was definitely strong after the first debate, but there isn't any buzz around him anymore that I can tell. Especially on twitter.

Cain is out campaigning Paul in IOWA he has 25 days spent in IOWA...seriously if Ron wants to win he has to BE in IOWA and NH every week AND not just spending time at 2 events then leaving. He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

Does anyone know how many events, Ron did when he was in LA for the SRLC?

Incidentally, here is the last national poll taken:
NATIONAL --------- IOWA
33%- Romney ----- Romney 23%
19%-Bachman ----- Bachmann 22%
10%- Cain -------- Cain 10%
9 - Gringrich ----- Gingrich 7%
7- Paul ------------ Paul 7%
6-Pawlenty ------- Pawlenty 6%
6-Santorum ------ Santorum 4%
2-Huntsman ------ Huntsman 2%

Virtually identical...

[XTreat]

I was in NO and to the best of my knowledge he did only his speech at 2 oclock and the meet and greet at 4. he did a mike church interview somewhere in there and probably a few others.

[BUSHLIED]

I was in NO and to the best of my knowledge he did only his speech at 2 oclock and the meet and greet at 4. he did a mike church interview somewhere in there and probably a few others.

Exactly, one speech, one meet & greet, and then interviews...not enough

[Paul4Prez]

Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%

--Margin of error 4.9%, 400 likely Republican caucus-goers.

Looks like we are in a tough fight competing for 3rd place at IOWA. You can kiss 1st or 2nd goodbye.

Not true at all. Take a look back to the first Register poll in 2007, and the eventual caucus results:

First 2007 Poll: Romney 29%, Giuliani 16%, McCain 16%, Huckabee < 10%
2008 Caucus: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 10%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 3%

Also this, from the Register itself:


Veteran campaign watchers caution that it’s early: Candidates’ fortunes will rise and fall. Indeed, 69 percent of respondents said they could still be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

[Paul4Prez]

Days spent in Iowa:




Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

Days spent in Iowa per percentage point in the poll:

Bachmann: 0.5
Paul: 2.1
Cain: 2.5
Gingrich: 3.3
Pawlenty: 4.3
Santorum: 7.3
Romney: ??
Huntsman: ??

I see the Register isn't even tracking Gary Johnson, a popular two-term governor....

[Matt Collins]

.






Ron can do better than this IF we give him the tools to do so.



DONATE TO THE IOWA PROJECTS ASAP!!!!!
http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php






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[XTreat]

Excellent point + rep






Ron can do better than this IF we give him the tools to do so.



DONATE TO THE IOWA PROJECTS ASAP!!!!!
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http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/259982_978544172855_38407710_43250028_4567102_n.jp g (http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php)[/QUOTE]

[Badger Paul]

He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

That's easier said than done when you don't have a day job which requires you to be in Washgington D.C. a good chunk of the time. Even despite this RP has spent far more time in Iowa than in 2007 and will be back next week as well. For all the visits he's made, he's gotten good bang for his buck.

Visits are important but look, Bachmann has been to Iowa just 12 times is at 22 percent. Santorum has been there 26 times and has four percent. Sometimes people see you enough times and it just confirms that they don't like you.

[Esoteric]

He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

That's easier said than done when you don't have a day job which requires you to be in Washgington D.C. a good chunk of the time. Even despite this RP has spent far more time in Iowa than in 2007 and will be back next week as well. For all the visits he's made, he's gotten good bang for his buck.

Visits are important but look, Bachmann has been to Iowa just 12 times is at 22 percent. Santorum has been there 26 times and has four percent. Sometimes people see you enough times and it just confirms that they don't like you.


This isn't the case with Ron. He's by far the most misunderstood candidate. Meeting people will only help his cause.

[sailingaway]

This isn't the case with Ron. He's by far the most misunderstood candidate. Meeting people will only help his cause.

I agree.

[Uriah]

Bachmann is a new face which attracts attention. Romney is skipping Iowa for England and he will drop in the polls or at least have a poor showing at the straw poll. Cain is losing steam. Pawlenty is vastly under performing. Gingrich is losing ground and Paul is poised to take 3rd... with 5% margin of error and 7 weeks till the Iowa straw poll a lot can happen.

[BUSHLIED]

Bachmann is a new face which attracts attention. Romney is skipping Iowa for England and he will drop in the polls or at least have a poor showing at the straw poll. Cain is losing steam. Pawlenty is vastly under performing. Gingrich is losing ground and Paul is poised to take 3rd... with 5% margin of error and 7 weeks till the Iowa straw poll a lot can happen.

Everyone keeps saying this. It is speculation. We can't base our campaign on what we think MAY happen. Ron needs to dedicate 6 weeks to campaigning before the Iowa Straw Poll to get a strong result. He needs to be in Iowa the full week right before the poll. He should a county tour hitting all major population centers.

[Badger Paul]

Meeting people will only help his cause.

I agree and he is doing that. But in a field with people who can campaign in Iowa an unlimited amount of times, it does put him at a disadvantage.

You'll see the visits to Iowa ratchet up as soon as Congress winds down for the summer, especially in August.

[kazmlsj]

Hmmm...I thought Romney was going to skip the Iowa straw poll:

Romney to Skip Iowa Straw Poll
In his second attempt at the Republican presidential nomination, Mr. Romney is taking a different approach. He is seeking to lower expectations in Iowa — and elsewhere — as he wages his fight in the Republican nominating contest.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/

His humility is heart-warming...:rolleyes:
Guess he is just too irresistible to the public...wow...

I do believe these polls are not what they appear...like everything else in government.

[newyearsrevolution08]

its sad that we even have to play this "iowa" is key b.s.

such a dinner and a show with our politics

like ANY of these polls actually mean anything when it comes down to the actual vote.

This is all soap opera b.s. and we all know it, sure he is in 4th BUT WAIT someone just found out that mittens has an illegitimate love child out there DADADDA!!!!!

WE ARE a sad nation...

[LibertyEagle]

Ron can do better than this IF we give him the tools to do so.



DONATE TO THE IOWA PROJECTS ASAP!!!!!
http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php






http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/259982_978544172855_38407710_43250028_4567102_n.jp g (http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php)

Yup.