Why Nov 5th will make 3+ million:

[ronpaulyourmom]

15,000 pledges - 3000 trolls / bailers + 1500 who didnt sign up but plan to give =

13,500 legitimate pledges
x $125 average donation
---------------------------------------
$1,687,500
+ the following scenario...

A ton of the most dedicated Ron Paul supporters get an early start and donate their share either after midnight when the day starts or early in the morning when they wake up. The Ron Paul campaign takes the opportunity to send out an email to all of their supporters proclaiming the days success, and a personal message from Ron asking all of the supporters to make history today by putting him over the top. This is not collusion between grassroots and HQ, it's simply an email in response to high fundraising for the day. I see no reason why HQ wont be doing this, and the snowball effect might be good for another million.

My prediction: $3,500,000

Maybe I'm overly optimistic (or maybe not enough?), and of course this is all pure speculation, but what the hell.

[jesshwarren]

5,000,000 won't surprize me I'm lookin for 8+

[ItDoesNotStopWithRonPaul]

That would be great, and I plan on giving and telling all of my friends and family to donate, but y'all sound nuts.

[slantedview]

Can we get the 5th of november info pushed out to the major blogs (lewrockwell, dailypaul, etc.) again before the big day? We need another round of advertisements to make sure ALL ron paul supporters participate.

[austin356]

Hard choice here:

LSU @ BAMA game ticket vs 4 Kegs of Beer vs Extra Ron Paul donations

[austin356]

yall are nuts. If we actually get over 1m we will be successful. >1.5m Double Success. 2.5m? Historical

[nayjevin]

Hard choice here:

LSU @ BAMA game ticket vs 4 Kegs of Beer vs Extra Ron Paul donations

watch the game on TV, buy a couple 40's, donate the rest.

[jblosser]

Hard choice here:

LSU @ BAMA game ticket vs 4 Kegs of Beer vs Extra Ron Paul donations

That is like the definition of bread and circuses.

As for donations, I know of at least 4 people other than myself who will donate but aren't signed up on the site.

I have no idea what to expect but I think it will be impressive.

[itsnobody]

We need a $10 million shocker....I really hope the servers will be ready, $10 million would be possible if a lot of people donated max

[jgmaynard]

but y'all sound nuts.

You're all nuts, I'm just a guy in a shark suit. :D

JM

[ItsTime]

do not forget about Adam Curry and his 300k USA listeners and lets say that only 2% of them support Ron Paul and will donate on the 5th like Curry will suggest they do. That is another 6,000 people. Which pulls in another $600k :)

Plus people like my myself, father and a few of his friends who have not signed up at thisnovember5th.com and are donating anyway. Plus the regular donations.. man I can see 3 million

[jumpyg1258]

I am sticking with a more realistic number, $100 for each person on the list. The peeps that sign up but dont donate will be replaced by those who didnt sign up but are going to donate (I know one personally that is going to). Those who donate less than 100 will be evened out by those that donate more than 100. We will probably have 15k peeps signed up by the 5th which will make the total to be around $1.5 million which is my guess. $1.5 million in a day is impressive regardless since the media made a big deal about RP making a million in the period of a week.

[qwerty]

We must spend these last days to promote this effort as hard as we can!

Remember to encourage people to donate also smaller amount if they can´t afford 100$!

:cool:

[reduen]

Well, it looks like it will be about 18-20 thousand signed up by the 4th so I will guess that a total of $1,750,000 on the 5th....

[Perry]

yall are nuts. If we actually get over 1m we will be successful. >1.5m Double Success. 2.5m? Historical

If we get over 500,000 we will be successful. Over a million and we make news across the board.

[itsnobody]

Let's at least break the online record for one day donations ($3 million set by John Kerry)

Get ourselves into the record book

[Thunderbolt]

No matter how much we are dying to watch, we all need to stay off the servers after we donate so we don't crash them! That would be the worst outcome possible!

[greves]

My calculations:

20,000 signed up by nov 5th
2x signups will donate without signing up
=40,000

20,000
+40,000
=60,000 total donors

average donation = $120

60,000*120 = 7,200,000

Call me crazy, but I think this is a fair estimate.

Consider: the average donation size for the past week has floated just shy of $100, reaching $120 at the peak. Nov 5th donations will be bulk $100 + small portion $50-100 + 2-3x small portion $100-2300, exponentially decreasing on both sides of $100 but slower on the positive than negative. Hence I think its reasonable to conclude that the average donation size will be around the maximum (maybe even more) that it has been in recent days, $120.

I'll be kicking in $400, and all of my friends will be putting in at least $100.

[goRPaul]

I'm gonna lowball it. I'll be thrilled with anything above $1 million.

Further down the line, I may sell my Nintendo Wii and donate the profits. That's a toughie, but I don't play it as much as I used to.

[kylejack]

I predict $600,000. I'm probably being too generous with that prediction. Regardless, it will be our biggest day yet.

[kylejack]

$600,000 means that 9,000 pledges made in vain. Among Paulite spammers, that's highly unlikely. A few million is conservative, and extremely impressive.
The welch rate is going to be pretty high, I suspect. 11/11 effort is making people confirm their e-mail addresses and has far far fewer people. I have a feeling there are people out there who don't support Ron Paul at all and are signing up just to inflate expectations, and other Ron Paul supporters who think they're "helping" to make it look more impressive by signing up multiple times. I don't think the people who donate more is going to cover the gap.

Don't get too disappointed if we only raise $300,000 or half a million.

[NinjaPirate]

The welch rate is going to be pretty high, I suspect. 11/11 effort is making people confirm their e-mail addresses and has far far fewer people. I have a feeling there are people out there who don't support Ron Paul at all and are signing up just to inflate expectations, and other Ron Paul supporters who think they're "helping" to make it look more impressive by signing up multiple times. I don't think the people who donate more is going to cover the gap.

Don't get too disappointed if we only raise $300,000 or half a million.

I agree with this, but I hope to be proven dead wrong!

[yoshimaroka]

I agree with this, but I hope to be proven dead wrong!

Me too.

I've read a few times on Facebook of other Canadians who've actually signed up but can't donate. They did it to show support

[kylejack]

I agree with this, but I hope to be proven dead wrong!
Me too!

[ItsTime]

300,000 American Adam Curry listeners... say 2% donate on that day (he will be telling them he is and if you believe in Ron Paul you should too) that is 6,000 that is about $600,000 right there (so will donate more some will donate less)


I predict $600,000. I'm probably being too generous with that prediction. Regardless, it will be our biggest day yet.

[Nathan Hale]

15,000 pledges - 3000 trolls / bailers + 1500 who didnt sign up but plan to give =

13,500 legitimate pledges
x $125 average donation
---------------------------------------
$1,687,500


If I recall correctly, one of the better organized pledgebank drives netted donations from 50% of the signers. I think that's a more accurate bar to be set for this sort of thing.

That said, I also don't think it's appropriate to double the expected donations to account for noise outside of the designated signers. I'm being generous here when I say that a more accurate reflection of noise will be to the tune of $200K. That's what Paul was raising per day toward the end of Q3 when we were all purging our piggy banks to help him hit $1M in five days.

Assuming you get half of the signers donating, plus my generous estimate for noise, you're looking at $1M, maybe a little over. That's still a very respectable amount. Just don't get your hopes up.

[CoreyBowen999]

Agreed. I'm predicting 1.3 mil but i hope it is alot more!

[Johnnybags]

or get back back on course for a 12 million quarter. I'd be ecstatic with doubling his 2.7 million on one day to 5.4 but its unrealistic.

[Naraku]

11/11 effort is making people confirm their e-mail addresses and has far far fewer people.

True, but they also do not have the same kind of publicity for them as Nov. 5th does and many who do know about Nov. 11th are already in another effort and don't sign up, but will still be donating for it.

It's true there might be some falsifying, but I don't think it is as serious as you might believe. It certainly isn't serious enough to warrant only $600,000. I think that's being overly pessimistic.

[itsnobody]

We need to break the $3 million single-day online record

[me3]

Take the best single day of fund raising and multiply it by 3. That's a good low-average estimate.

[itsnobody]

Take the best single day of fund raising and multiply it by 3. That's a good low-average estimate.

You're saying $9 million is a low estimate?

[Nathan Hale]

We need to break the $3 million single-day online record

No we don't. It would be nice, but it's not a realistic goal. Better to focus on goals that we have a realistic chance of meeting. This is all about strategy, and strategy is all about measuring risk, cost, reward, effort, etc. Making "beat one day world record for fundraising" is not a good goal for a campaign that NEEDS to reach so many other goals in order to remain viable. If we put as much effort into the official campaign goals as we do for these pseudo-goals we'd be in much better shape as a campaign.

[LibertyEagle]

Yeah, but I am still hoping. Because the campaign needs a lot more money to run ads in the early primary states. A lot!

[itsnobody]

No we don't. It would be nice, but it's not a realistic goal. Better to focus on goals that we have a realistic chance of meeting. This is all about strategy, and strategy is all about measuring risk, cost, reward, effort, etc. Making "beat one day world record for fundraising" is not a good goal for a campaign that NEEDS to reach so many other goals in order to remain viable. If we put as much effort into the official campaign goals as we do for these pseudo-goals we'd be in much better shape as a campaign.

Well if we broke the $3 mllion record we would get a lot more attention in the media also

[kylejack]

I'm calling 600K, and I'm probably being a little too optimistic. Hopefully I'm really wrong. PROVE ME WRONG, you magnificient bastards!

[ItsTime]

I keep saying this.. but its true:
Adam Curry's US listeners number 300,000 only 2% of them need to donate $100 dollars to make $600,000.

My overall guess is 2 million. But Ill be happy with 500,000 lol :D


I'm calling 600K, and I'm probably being a little too optimistic. Hopefully I'm really wrong. PROVE ME WRONG, you magnificient bastards!

[fightfortruth]

I just wanted everyone to know that in case the server goes down on the official site, here is the number to call to donate your money on the 5th:

There is a chance that the servers will be overwhelmed by the
tremendous amount of online traffic. In that instance you can also donate by
calling:

1-877-RON-2008 or 1-877-766-2008

[itsnobody]

I just wanted everyone to know that in case the server goes down on the official site, here is the number to call to donate your money on the 5th:

There is a chance that the servers will be overwhelmed by the
tremendous amount of online traffic. In that instance you can also donate by
calling:

1-877-RON-2008 or 1-877-766-2008

That information should be on the this November 5th site

[itsnobody]

I'm calling 600K, and I'm probably being a little too optimistic. Hopefully I'm really wrong. PROVE ME WRONG, you magnificient bastards!

Uhm...it's going to be at least $2 million, assuming the servers won't crash....just wait and see

[kylejack]

Uhm...it's going to be at least $2 million, assuming the servers won't crash....just wait and see

Prove me wrong, you magnificient bastard!

[itsnobody]

Prove me wrong, you magnificient bastard!

Ok, just wait until tomorrow 11:59PM

There's over 18,000 subscribers, and many are donating more than $100, then there's all the people who never subscribed who will donate, and the regular amount of daily donations....

[kylejack]

Ok, just wait until tomorrow 11:59PM

There's over 18,000 subscribers, and many are donating more than $100, then there's all the people who never subscribed who will donate, and the regular amount of daily donations....

You forgot to mention the people who did subscribe who will not donate.

[itsnobody]

You forgot to mention the people who did subscribe who will not donate.

Yeah but they will make up the vast minority, and the higher donors will make up for them easily...

I want us to break the $3 million record though

[ItsTime]

And in the words of Adam Curry: It only takes 500 people maxing out tomorrow to break 1 million woot. LETS DO IT! :D

It feels like christmas...


You forgot to mention the people who did subscribe who will not donate.

[Nathan Hale]

Well if we broke the $3 mllion record we would get a lot more attention in the media also

I'll bet it would. But once again, $3 million is not a realistic goal, not worth pursuing.

[itsnobody]

I'm calling 600K, and I'm probably being a little too optimistic. Hopefully I'm really wrong. PROVE ME WRONG, you magnificient bastards!
hahaha...$600k was passed before 9AM...see everything is just as I said


I'll bet it would. But once again, $3 million is not a realistic goal, not worth pursuing.
It is now ;)

[Original_Intent]

this needs bumped it is too funny!

I gotta admit, today has exceeded my expectations, I guessed 1.8 million online today and I thought I was being bleeding edge optimistic.

[itsnobody]

this needs bumped it is too funny!

I gotta admit, today has exceeded my expectations, I guessed 1.8 million online today and I thought I was being bleeding edge optimistic.

Yes, it's real funny everyone under-estimates Paulites....this same thing happened before when we were trying to get $1 million a week, everyone said it couldn't happen

[Chrispy]

This is why ridiculous goals of 10 mil. are important. I mean we might be on track to get a third of that today, possibly more, 4-5 mil? It's healthy though because you don't want goals to be too easy. So make them high enough that even if you fail to meet them you can look back and say, "damn, we made out all right".

[expatinireland]

I just received this request from Jonathan the campaign finance director.

"Will you help us beat Mitt Romney and raise more in one day than anyone has this year?"

Yes I would love to, but Americans living overseas like myself still can not contribute through the website.

So here I am still sitting on the sidelines with my cash burning a hole in my pocket after sending several e-mails over several months and finally making contact with Jonathon about the problem through an internet celebrity.

:mad:

[justinc.1089]

Yeah this stuff is kind of funny. Last night before 12 I thought I was being optimistic predicting just over 2 million, and here we are now with a very real possiblity of 3 million!:eek:

[Chief Crow Wing]

Yes I would love to, but Americans living overseas like myself still can not contribute through the website.


But you can....All you need is a US address... your Mum's or old girlfriends or a sibling's.

I've lived overseas for 22 years now - but I have a credit card linked to my brothers address. I donated $100 today and feel real good about it.

[Sergeant Brother]

I'm calling 600K, and I'm probably being a little too optimistic. Hopefully I'm really wrong. PROVE ME WRONG, you magnificient bastards!

LOL, you may be off slightly on that :p

[itsnobody]

This is why ridiculous goals of 10 mil. are important. I mean we might be on track to get a third of that today, possibly more, 4-5 mil? It's healthy though because you don't want goals to be too easy. So make them high enough that even if you fail to meet them you can look back and say, "damn, we made out all right".

Yeah big goals make people do a lot more than small goals

Thats why it's best to aim high

[NinjaPirate]

Since I agreed with kylejack, I guess I have no choice but to indulge myself with a hearty plate of crow!

/gladly eats his plate of crow

[Nathan Hale]

Hi everyone.

Yesterday I wrote that $3,000,000 is not a realistic goal.

I stand corrected. Bravo!

I still say that the $10,000,000 bandied about early on was ridiculous. Please, prove me wrong again!

[itsnobody]

Yeah!!! We're in the record book, breaking the record for the most single-day online donations

[Heather in WI]

Yeah big goals make people do a lot more than small goals

Thats why it's best to aim high

The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. ~Michelangelo

Woo-hoo! I am so happy that we aimed high!!!

[NewEnd]

That would be great, and I plan on giving and telling all of my friends and family to donate, but y'all sound nuts.

Oooh, eat it, eat your words... muahahahahaha!

[NewEnd]

No we don't. It would be nice, but it's not a realistic goal. Better to focus on goals that we have a realistic chance of meeting. This is all about strategy, and strategy is all about measuring risk, cost, reward, effort, etc. Making "beat one day world record for fundraising" is not a good goal for a campaign that NEEDS to reach so many other goals in order to remain viable. If we put as much effort into the official campaign goals as we do for these pseudo-goals we'd be in much better shape as a campaign.

oooh, more crow. I love this thread!!! I hear its great with barbeque sauce.

[wfd40]

Remarkable..

I would never have taken this over-under ;)

[itsnobody]

The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. ~Michelangelo

Woo-hoo! I am so happy that we aimed high!!!

Yeah, nice quote btw

We broke the record...after the FEC filings are released we'll be in

[Nathan Hale]

oooh, more crow. I love this thread!!! I hear its great with barbeque sauce.

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Suffice it to say, it happens quite infrequently when it comes to politics. So I offer some advice to you on the occasion of your being right:

Don't get cocky. Irony has a way of finding you when you become overconfident.

[NewEnd]

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Suffice it to say, it happens quite infrequently when it comes to politics. So I offer some advice to you on the occasion of your being right:

Don't get cocky. Irony has a way of finding you when you become overconfident.


I know this,

Pessimism creates self-fulfilling prophecies.

I know this too,

Optimism, also creates self-fulfilling prophecies.

Now dig deep.

Do you really believe we have a good chance of winning?

I do. And for that reason, I hate seeing people offereing negative "advice", especially when it comes to fundraising or any other grass roots efforts. The American populace is incredibly complex.

[Nathan Hale]

I know this,

Pessimism creates self-fulfilling prophecies.

I know this too,

Optimism, also creates self-fulfilling prophecies.

Now dig deep.

Do you really believe we have a good chance of winning?

I do. And for that reason, I hate seeing people offereing negative "advice", especially when it comes to fundraising or any other grass roots efforts. The American populace is incredibly complex.

I am neither a pessimist nor an optimist. I am a strategist and a realist. So I look at all the angles and try to determine the best course of action. If my evidence shows a course of action that will likely end badly, I try to deter it - and sometimes those who fail to see the flaws of their course of action NEED that "negative" advice. Unfortunately, while both optimism and pessimism can have an effect on the outcome of a prophecy, neither is a bankable determining factor for the viability of a prophecy.

The money bomb worked, not as much as its supporters originally intended but more than I believed it ever would. Regardless, it doesn't negate the argument that we should carefully consider courses of action and debate their viability.