Due to redistricting, I may end up running for Congress 4 years early.

[GunnyFreedom]

I can't get into too much detail as I may be deposed, but redistricting is turning out very ugly for me and my county. I'm just trying to provide as much advance warning as possible since I will literally need 100-fold the support I had in 2010 to run for Federal office...and unlike last time, much of that will be needed in the primary.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?299156-NC-Legislative-Redistricting-VRA-Plan-this-looks-bad

ETA - link currently down until we sort out strategy and search listings.

[GunnyFreedom]

So I hope that when I learn more in August, that support network will exist.

[Vessol]

Glen, I'll be pretty busy when school starts back up, including work. However, I could come to Franklin country on days off to help you canvass.

[JamesButabi]

Just as I suggested to AlexMerced, you have credibility and should utilize the various PACs the liberty network has funded in the past 4 years.

[Kotin]

Dude I will do everything I can to get you elected should you choose to run..

[GunnyFreedom]

Glen, I'll be pretty busy when school starts back up, including work. However, I could come to Franklin country on days off to help you canvass.

Well, depending on what way I go it may or may not be Franklin County. If I go for State House it would be Franklin and Nash, and it will be a primary against a decent incumbent. If I go for State Senate it will be Franklin and Wake, and it will be a primary against a very well loved and wealthy candidate. If I go for Congress, then Franklin County will be the least of my worries, to be honest.


Just as I suggested to AlexMerced, you have credibility and should utilize the various PACs the liberty network has funded in the past 4 years.

I know we were talking about legislative PACs at one point in history, I don't know if that ever happened or not. Due to redistricting, both State House and State Senate are becoming very bad options, and whatever legislative PAC is not going to apply to Congress.


Dude I will do everything I can to get you elected should you choose to run..

Thanks man, you rock. If I go for Federal office, I have to weigh between House and Senate, as I already have a great statewide network, and it would be a shame not to have any use for them...

[Southron]

That's unfortunate ...

If you want my 2 cents, which I doubt, I am not in favor of this. But do what you feel is best.

[Napoleon's Shadow]

Well be sure to have a great voting record (we're sure that you do). Also be sure to introduce as many liberty-promoting and authoritarian-neutering amendments as possible next session!

That will help establish your credentials and give you more to run on since you'll be painted as "inexperienced".

[GunnyFreedom]

That's unfortunate ...

If you want my 2 cents, which I doubt, I am not in favor of this. But do what you feel is best.

Well, neither am I, to be honest, but consider my options:

1) run for the new House District in a primary against Jeff Collins who is good enough to win as a Republican despite the GOP losing their salt in 2012 because he has not toed the establisment line, but stuck mostly with good 'republican' principles.

2) run for the new Senate District in a primary against a very wealthy and very beloved developer who currently chairs the the County chamber of commerce.

3) run for Governor and get my rear end handed to me in a primary no matter how well funded I am.

4) run for Federal office of some sort and rely on my statewide and nationwide RP network to make it work.

5) give up public office.

so which option should I choose?

[GunnyFreedom]

Well be sure to have a great voting record (we're sure that you do). Also be sure to introduce as many liberty-promoting and authoritarian-neutering amendments as possible next session!

I have just hired a secret weapon as my new legislative assistant. A strong dedicated activist in the LP, campaign manager for the last LP candidate to run for US Senate, a STRONG legal background, and #2 priority on her job description to help write amendments to anything and everything that comes across.


That will help establish your credentials and give you more to run on since you'll be painted as "inexperienced".

Well, I'm now more experienced than most Paulers and liberty people who have run for Congress, so we will see.

[Imperial]

Don't do anything until you get specific details on redistricting. You will have to look at a few things when you make the decision, particularly how much of each district you represented before and how much of each district the incumbent you take on has represented. The grassroots can provide money [I know I would donate], but with Justin Amash likely to face a strong primary and Ron Paul locked in the presidential race it is uncertain how much there is to go around.

[One Last Battle!]

If you think you have a strong statewide network and the opposition isn't too strong, try for Senate. Otherwise, it looks like US Congress is your best bet.

[eduardo89]

So what exactly happened to your district? Did it get completely wiped out or expanded north to warren county or east to nash? I remember a thread a while back and it seemed like you were going to get part of vance or granville?

[Brian4Liberty]

So what exactly happened to your district?

The argument can be made that you are (mostly) the incumbent in one of the districts. That should carry some weight in the Primary. If there is more than one district to choose from, the previous vote should help you decide which to choose. I suppose that is obvious and you have probably already calculated all that... :o

[GunnyFreedom]

So what exactly happened to your district? Did it get completely wiped out or expanded north to warren county or east to nash? I remember a thread a while back and it seemed like you were going to get part of vance or granville?

I can't say too much due to the danger of being deposed when this goes to court, not that I have anything to say since I was never part of the process, but this is one situation where the powers that be would take whatever I say WAY out of context to make whatever BS case they are trying to make.

What I CAN do is share a link and let you form your own conclusions, and say briefly that for the NC House, Franklin has been podded with Nash, and for NC Senate Franklin has been podded with Wake.

Page for House VRA plan: http://ncleg.net/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis_VRA_House_District s&Body=House

Page for Senate VRA Plan: http://ncleg.net/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_VRA_Distric ts&Body=Senate

PDF for House VRA Plan: http://ncleg.net/gis/randr07/District_Plans/DB_2011/House/Lewis_VRA_House_Districts/Maps/mapSimple.pdf

PDF for Senate VRA Plan: http://ncleg.net/gis/randr07/District_Plans/DB_2011/Senate/Rucho_Senate_VRA_Districts/Maps/mapSimple.pdf

From the information provided above it is possible to reach your own conclusions without my saying something that could get me deposed.

[libertybrewcity]

why would a Republican controlled legislature redistrict you out?

[GunnyFreedom]

why would a Republican controlled legislature redistrict you out?

Because I embarrass them by standing on principle and the Constitution while they stand on whichever special interest can provide them the most support.

[eduardo89]

Because I embarrass them by standing on principle and the Constitution while they stand on whichever special interest can provide them the most support.

+1

[Eric21ND]

Do we have anyone who can run for your current position if you run for Congress? I'd hate to give the seat back to big govt republican.

[GunnyFreedom]

Do we have anyone who can run for your current position if you run for Congress? I'd hate to give the seat back to big govt republican.

I'm confused by this question. I'd rather maintain my current position myself. There is still way too much work left to do in the NC House.

[tpreitzel]

Cronyism at it's worst ... So, are you still in the process of deciding your future?

[GunnyFreedom]

Cronyism at it's worst ... So, are you still in the process of deciding your future?

I won't know for certain how the districts work out until July 22 or July 25. I can't even begin to decide what I will do going forward until that point.

[TCE]

Do we have anyone who can run for your current position if you run for Congress? I'd hate to give the seat back to big govt republican.

The only way Gunny will run for another office is if he can't logically hold a seat in the next session of the legislature. Essentially, if Gunny knows he'll lose because of the new maps, he'll run for something he has a chance at. His old seat will surely revert back to the Democrats/Republicans, but it would be a lost cause.

To all wondering why Republicans would do this: Gunny rocks the boat. Search up his bills. Many have few to no co-sponsors because they are pro-liberty in nature. The establishment doesn't like people who stand on principle. The Republicans figured Gunny would step into line after he won, but luckily for all of us who supported him, he didn't. He kept to his values and stands out as the most liberty-oriented state legislator North Carolina has ever seen. It makes perfect sense why both sides would hate someone (Ron Paul anyone?) who actually has values.

Gunny, whichever position you run for, you will be first on my donation list.

[tpreitzel]

I won't know for certain how the districts work out until July 22 or July 25. I can't even begin to decide what I will do going forward until that point.

Well, if the redistricting doesn't look promising by August, maybe you should bite the bullet and run for governor. Just running will give you an immense platform to spread constitutional principles among the electorate. Contrast the differences between an establishment choice for governor and a governor of the people, i.e. 10th amendment governor, and the positive effects of electing one.

[lx43]

I can't get into too much detail as I may be deposed, but redistricting is turning out very ugly for me and my county. I'm just trying to provide as much advance warning as possible since I will literally need 100-fold the support I had in 2010 to run for Federal office...and unlike last time, much of that will be needed in the primary.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?299156-NC-Legislative-Redistricting-VRA-Plan-this-looks-bad

ETA - link currently down until we sort out strategy and search listings.



Gunny you are being targeted by the leadership if your own party is what this sounds like to me. Please start building up a war chest of cash now and don't wait to the last minute. Is there anything we can do now to help stop the redistricting of your area in your opinion?

[TCE]

Cronyism at it's worst ... So, are you still in the process of deciding your future?

I'll elaborate a bit more because Gunny is taking the high road and not giving anyone anything to use against him in the future. There is a process where the maps are approved and then Gov. Perdue has to sign them into law. She'll likely veto them or strike a deal, since they will be less friendly to Democrats than she would like (Gunny has debunked this. My fault, I was using my own state, Illinois, for the example), then the fun begins. North Carolina has been target practice for the courts as far as gerrymandering goes. Here is a list of cases from the 1990's alone involving North Carolina and gerrymandering. http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/redsum/ncsum.htm

If precedent is any indication, something on the map will be overturned and then that portion will have to be redrawn. Unfortunately for Gunny, such litigation often takes a year or more, especially after the appeals, so whatever map the legislature churns out will likely be in effect for the 2012 elections. All Gunny and all of us can do is wait and pray.

[TCE]

Well, if the redistricting doesn't look promising by August, maybe you should bite the bullet and run for governor. Just running will give you an immense platform to spread constitutional principles among the electorate. Contrast the differences between an establishment choice for governor and a governor of the people, i.e. 10th amendment governor, and the positive effects of electing one.

The problem is Pat McCrory will absolutely decimate Gunny in terms of money. Combine that with his huge name recognition advantage, and it would be like throwing Gunny to the wolves. He should run for the most winnable seat.

[tpreitzel]

TCE,


Thanks

Likely, but sometimes risk has it's benefits over time ... The real question is: Can Glen win any legislative seat other than his current one in 2012?

[GunnyFreedom]

The only way Gunny will run for another office is if he can't logically hold a seat in the next session of the legislature. Essentially, if Gunny knows he'll lose because of the new maps, he'll run for something he has a chance at. His old seat will surely revert back to the Democrats/Republicans, but it would be a lost cause.

To all wondering why Republicans would do this: Gunny rocks the boat. Search up his bills. Many have few to no co-sponsors because they are pro-liberty in nature. The establishment doesn't like people who stand on principle. The Republicans figured Gunny would step into line after he won, but luckily for all of us who supported him, he didn't. He kept to his values and stands out as the most liberty-oriented state legislator North Carolina has ever seen. It makes perfect sense why both sides would hate someone (Ron Paul anyone?) who actually has values.

Gunny, whichever position you run for, you will be first on my donation list.

Thank you TCE. I think this time around, now that I have a record to back up my claims, I will actually be able to afford a real campaign, one that has the money to send thank you letters etc, and not just a shoestring opertion where I print out slimjims from a color laser at home, and when I run out of toner, I can't make any more handouts.

Yes, I do rock the boat, but I have earned the respect of most of the non-leadership Republicans, and the respect of most of the Democrats. They are fraid to let my bills on the floor because I'm winning Democrat votes too, and they could not stop me.

Oh, and some of my bills have PLENTY of cosponsors. Farmer's Freedom, Firearms Freedom, and NC Jobs Bill are all loaded with cosponsors.


Well, if the redistricting doesn't look promising by August, maybe you should bite the bullet and run for governor. Just running will give you an immense platform to spread constitutional principles among the electorate. Contrast the differences between an establishment choice for governor and a governor of the people, i.e. 10th amendment governor, and the positive effects of electing one.

Running for Governor at this point would be a total waste of time and donor money. Pat McCrory is not just the favorite, he is pretty much a total given for the nomination. People won't even be paying attention until after the primary, and there is no way I'm getting past a Gubernatorial primary in 2012.


Gunny you are being targeted by the leadership if your own party is what this sounds like to me. Please start building up a war chest of cash now and don't wait to the last minute. Is there anything we can do now to help stop the redistricting of your area in your opinion?

There is a public hearing coming up on 6/23 and I am going to pass it on to people in my county. That hearing is specifically about the VRA districts -- the source of the problem. If they decide to show up in droves at the public hearing it may make a real difference.

NC has had VRA districts since the 1960's, and Franklin County has never, ever been split up on account of them. Our getting split this year for the first time ever is a bit suspicious to say the least.


I'll elaborate a bit more because Gunny is taking the high road and not giving anyone anything to use against him in the future. There is a process where the maps are approved and then Gov. Perdue has to sign them into law. She'll likely veto them or strike a deal, since they will be less friendly to Democrats than she would like, then the fun begins. North Carolina has been target practice for the courts as far as gerrymandering goes. Here is a list of cases from the 1990's alone involving North Carolina and gerrymandering. http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/redsum/ncsum.htm

If precedent is any indication, something on the map will be overturned and then that portion will have to be redrawn. Unfortunately for Gunny, such litigation often takes a year or more, especially after the appeals, so whatever map the legislature churns out will likely be in effect for the 2012 elections. All Gunny and all of us can do is wait and pray.

Actually, the Governor of NC has no power to veto redistricting, but it's true that NC is taken to court over redistricting more than any other state in the union. This year will be no different. That is one of the reasons why I am trying to be as close to the vest as possible on this one. I don't want to be deposed.

Mind you, I don't know anything to be deposed for. I have not been involved in the process at all, and I have avoided inserting myself because of the legal fiasco that is sure to erupt.

[GunnyFreedom]

TCE,


Thanks

Likely, but sometimes risk has it's benefits over time ... The real question is: Can Glen win any legislative seat other than his current one in 2012?

Trust me, this would be like throwing a million cash into a shredder just to demonstrate fiat currency. People will walk away not really understanding what I was trying to say, but impressed that I was willing to destroy a million bucks to say it, and that will be about it.

[GunnyFreedom]

TCE,


Thanks

Likely, but sometimes risk has it's benefits over time ... The real question is: Can Glen win any legislative seat other than his current one in 2012?

Here are my options once I learn the districts on July 22nd:

1) run for the new House District in a primary against Jeff Collins who is good enough to win as a Republican despite the GOP losing their salt in 2012, because he has not toed the establishment line, but stuck mostly with good 'republican' principles. One of the few I personally believe should stay in office.

2) run for the new Senate District in a primary against Michael Schriver, someone who has never held office, but is wealthy, a member of the Chamber of Commerce, a former Marine, and (mostly) a Constitutionalist, with whom my only disagreement is that he would expand police power instead of constraining it. Someone else who does deserve to be in office even if he is not as strong on Constitutional principle as I am.

3) run for US House against whoever will be in my district, probably Renee Ellmers in CD2, who has all the money and establishment backing she will ever want or need. I, however, will have the Tea parties behind me.

4) run for US Senate and face a primary against whom I do not know, but who will certainly have all the money and establishment backing they will ever need.

5) run for Governor and get my rear end handed to me in a primary no matter how well funded I am.

6) give up on public office.


#6 is not an option, but #'s 1-5 are not pleasant by any stretch of the imagination.

[tpreitzel]

Trust me, this would be like throwing a million cash into a shredder just to demonstrate fiat currency. People will walk away not really understanding what I was trying to say, but impressed that I was willing to destroy a million bucks to say it, and that will be about it.

Although, I'm inclined to disagree that a run for governor would be a total waste even without progressing beyond the primary, I do accept your experience in this matter. Keep us informed so we can help whatever you ultimately decide.

Yeah, I saw the original list so maybe your best option is #3 if you feel it's a possibility to be elected in 2012. Otherwise, run for governor! Take on Goliath. ;)

[TCE]

Thank you TCE. I think this time around, now that I have a record to back up my claims, I will actually be able to afford a real campaign, one that has the money to send thank you letters etc, and not just a shoestring opertion where I print out slimjims from a color laser at home, and when I run out of toner, I can't make any more handouts.

Yes, I do rock the boat, but I have earned the respect of most of the non-leadership Republicans, and the respect of most of the Democrats. They are fraid to let my bills on the floor because I'm winning Democrat votes too, and they could not stop me.

Oh, and some of my bills have PLENTY of cosponsors. Farmer's Freedom, Firearms Freedom, and NC Jobs Bill are all loaded with cosponsors.

Any time. That should definitely be the case. Your name recognition in comparison to where it was this time two years ago isn't even a comparison. That is one battle won. For that reason alone, you have automatic supporters. The experience from last time will also prove invaluable. Any updates on those? I know I've been away from the action for a bit, so I am attempting to re-immerse myself.




Running for Governor at this point would be a total waste of time and donor money. Pat McCrory is not just the favorite, he is pretty much a total given for the nomination. People won't even be paying attention until after the primary, and there is no way I'm getting past a Gubernatorial primary in 2012.


There is a public hearing coming up on 6/23 and I am going to pass it on to people in my county. That hearing is specifically about the VRA districts -- the source of the problem. If they decide to show up in droves at the public hearing it may make a real difference.

NC has had VRA districts since the 1960's, and Franklin County has never, ever been split up on account of them. Our getting split this year for the first time ever is a bit suspicious to say the least.

Actually, the Governor of NC has no power to veto redistricting, but it's true that NC is taken to court over redistricting more than any other state in the union. This year will be no different. That is one of the reasons why I am trying to be as close to the vest as possible on this one. I don't want to be deposed.

Mind you, I don't know anything to be deposed for. I have not been involved in the process at all, and I have avoided inserting myself because of the legal fiasco that is sure to erupt.

Your analysis of the gubernatorial situation, from what I've read in the way of polling, appears to be spot-on. It's a bit unusual for a candidate to be anointed like Mr. McCrory has this far off of the election, but either way, he has the Primary locked.

That's my fault. I edited the original post. I was using Illinois, my home state, as the example. It is pretty strange for us, so I don't know why I assumed it would be the same for you guys.

[GunnyFreedom]

Although, I'm inclined to disagree that a run for governor would be a total waste even without progressing beyond the primary, I do accept your experience in this matter. Keep us informed so we can help whatever you ultimately decide.

Yeah, I saw the original list so maybe your best option is #3 if you feel it's a possibility to be elected in 2012. Otherwise, run for governor! ;)

Ask anybody who knows NC politics. McCrory is so much of a given for the GOP nomination that literally nobody will pay any attention whatsoever until the general. It would take a million dollar primary just to make a fart in the hurricane, and still nobody will pay attention. If there was a hope in hell I'd need between $3 million and $5 million to clear the primary and just get to the general where people will actually start listening.

No way I can raise $4 million for a NC gubernatorial primary. I know better than that.

The reason I think #3 will be my best option is because Ellmers has ticked off the tea parties something furious, and I am the tea party darling.

I'd much much rather stay in the NC House for now, to be honest, as there is still way too much work to do here before I traipse off to federal office.

[GunnyFreedom]

Any time. That should definitely be the case. Your name recognition in comparison to where it was this time two years ago isn't even a comparison. That is one battle won. For that reason alone, you have automatic supporters. The experience from last time will also prove invaluable. Any updates on those? I know I've been away from the action for a bit, so I am attempting to re-immerse myself.

LOL yeah, I was assaulted by the chairman of the Jobs and Commerce subcommittee on Business and Labor outside the main door of the chamber in front of many witnesses for refusing to back down on having H587 NC Job Growth heard in committee.

Other than that, I can't get a single bill heard in committee much less voted on and passed to the floor.

[tpreitzel]

Ask anybody who knows NC politics. McCrory is so much of a given for the GOP nomination that literally nobody will pay any attention whatsoever until the general. It would take a million dollar primary just to make a fart in the hurricane, and still nobody will pay attention. If there was a hope in hell I'd need between $3 million and $5 million to clear the primary and just get to the general where people will actually start listening.

No way I can raise $4 million for a NC gubernatorial primary. I know better than that.

The reason I think #3 will be my best option is because Ellmers has ticked off the tea parties something furious, and I am the tea party darling.

I'd much much rather stay in the NC House for now, to be honest, as there is still way too much work to do here before I traipse off to federal office.

Whatever you decide, I'll support you as I'm able. To bed for now.... Take on Goliath! ;)

[TCE]

LOL yeah, I was assaulted by the chairman of the Jobs and Commerce subcommittee on Business and Labor outside the main door of the chamber in front of many witnesses for refusing to back down on having H587 NC Job Growth heard in committee.

Other than that, I can't get a single bill heard in committee much less voted on and passed to the floor.

:( Sadness. I guess if people have jobs, they need the government less? Ugh...

[BamaAla]

Here are my options once I learn the districts on July 22nd:

1) run for the new House District in a primary against Jeff Collins who is good enough to win as a Republican despite the GOP losing their salt in 2012, because he has not toed the establishment line, but stuck mostly with good 'republican' principles. One of the few I personally believe should stay in office.

2) run for the new Senate District in a primary against Michael Schriver, someone who has never held office, but is wealthy, a member of the Chamber of Commerce, a former Marine, and (mostly) a Constitutionalist, with whom my only disagreement is that he would expand police power instead of constraining it. Someone else who does deserve to be in office even if he is not as strong on Constitutional principle as I am.

3) run for US House against whoever will be in my district, probably Renee Ellmers in CD2, who has all the money and establishment backing she will ever want or need. I, however, will have the Tea parties behind me.

4) run for US Senate and face a primary against whom I do not know, but who will certainly have all the money and establishment backing they will ever need.

5) run for Governor and get my rear end handed to me in a primary no matter how well funded I am.

6) give up on public office.


#6 is not an option, but #'s 1-5 are not pleasant by any stretch of the imagination.

Sorry to hear that. What's your profession (other than legislator?)

[Southron]

I'd much much rather stay in the NC House for now, to be honest, as there is still way too much work to do here before I traipse off to federal office.

I'm just worried you will end up like B.J. Lawson. The donations you received during the last campaign may be a drop in the bucket compared to what you need for Congress.

Also, I guess I am a little skeptical about donating a lot of money without being convinced you have a realistic chance to win.

I just hope things work out that your district remains unchanged because I am saving up for the next election. :)

[MozoVote]

There is a public hearing coming up on 6/23 and I am going to pass it on to people in my county. That hearing is specifically about the VRA districts -- the source of the problem. If they decide to show up in droves at the public hearing it may make a real difference.

NC has had VRA districts since the 1960's, and Franklin County has never, ever been split up on account of them. Our getting split this year for the first time ever is a bit suspicious to say the least.


I'd say get the word out to all the town council members that you do not favor splitting the county. Ask them to contact THIER mailing lists and pack the hearing with people. Start winning friends now.

[MozoVote]

Also Glen, you may have a 7th option. Run for county commission and serve there for 4 years. It's not a legilsatively commanding place to be, but you would establish deeper rapport with people all over the county, which could help you when the next best opportunity crops up.

[jacque]

Gunny you are being targeted by the leadership if your own party is what this sounds like to me. Please start building up a war chest of cash now and don't wait to the last minute. Is there anything we can do now to help stop the redistricting of your area in your opinion?

We will need to plan another moneybomb here and on facebook. Can I have help getting this started?

[Aratus]

RUN, GUNNY, RUN!!!!!
RUN 4 SOMTHiNG !!!!
RUN, GUNNY, RUN!!!!!

[tnvoter]

I would def support this Gunny

[GunnyFreedom]

Aaaaaaand.... like clockwork, Jeff Collins (the guy they are double-bunking my district with) has just announced a $250 per plate fundraiser with Majority Leader Skip Stam for June 30th.

Imagine that.

:rolleyes:

[GunnyFreedom]

We will need to plan another moneybomb here and on facebook. Can I have help getting this started?


We really really need to open that Constitutionalist Alliance Fund PAC so that I can carry the balance forward regardless of what office I end up filing for. I can transfer State House donations over to State Senate, but I can't transfer funds from state office to federal office.

However, if the CAF-PAC is opened, I can take from it $4000/$4000 into any state office, or $2500/$2500 into any federal office. It's the only way to take donations before knowing what office I'll actually be filing.

[evilfunnystuff]

When you decide what your running for it might be wise to seek an endorsement from Ron/Rand to help expand your network and fundraising base.

Having attained office and holding a good record I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be too difficult.

[Elwar]

I will literally need 100-fold the support I had in 2010 to run for Federal office...

And you will have it.

[jacque]

We really really need to open that Constitutionalist Alliance Fund PAC so that I can carry the balance forward regardless of what office I end up filing for. I can transfer State House donations over to State Senate, but I can't transfer funds from state office to federal office.

However, if the CAF-PAC is opened, I can take from it $4000/$4000 into any state office, or $2500/$2500 into any federal office. It's the only way to take donations before knowing what office I'll actually be filing.

OKAY! I will get it rolling this week, I promise.

[jacque]

I have signed up to speak on June 23 at the Museum. I need to say the right things this time so help me. I will have 5 minutes to speak on behalf of keeping Franklin County whole and pitting Republicans against Republicans.

All suggestions welcome.

Freedom Mom

[MozoVote]

You can point out that creating "too many" minority-majority districts can backfire. Look at what's happening in South Carolina.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/06/15/1859409/house-signs-off-on-plan-to-redraw.html

Maybe the NCGOP figures they are gonna be sued, no matter what, so they may as well be as tough as they can with the maps.

[jacque]

You could be right. I just can't get over how they are treating Glen. I guess it's because I am prejudice. But we worked so hard and they are taking it away with the stroke of a pen. How sick is that.

[BarryDonegan]

Going from State House to Congress isn't a huge leap, that is very doable. What is the R to D in the congressional district in question? Who is the biggest Republican looking to run? Do you have good in roads with the county party? Is there someone in the county/state party in that area who typically interviews the R candidates? Early interviewing could cause other candidates to pick a different race. Word would spread fast and the activists would mention that to anyone who said they wanted to run.

[TCE]

Going from State House to Congress isn't a huge leap, that is very doable. What is the R to D in the congressional district in question? Who is the biggest Republican looking to run? Do you have good in roads with the county party? Is there someone in the county/state party in that area who typically interviews the R candidates? Early interviewing could cause other candidates to pick a different race. Word would spread fast and the activists would mention that to anyone who said they wanted to run.

The problem is, it is a whole new district and it won't be finalized for another month, which makes game planning difficult in the interim. All we can do is use the current Cook rating for NC's 2nd which is R+2. Renee Elmers, a Freshman Republican, currently holds the seat. However, a Democrat had held the seat for the previous 14 years. Gunny would have to beat her in a Primary. She won under some interesting circumstances and is obviously not even close to Gunny's level in terms of being pro-liberty. For instance, she voted for the first PATRIOT Act this year that failed. Gunny obviously would never have voted for the monstrosity. Her voting record can be found here (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/E000291). She votes with Republicans 95% of the time.

Gunny: If setting up the PAC isn't too stressful or work intensive, it sounds like the best possible option with little to no downside. Also, one idea that hasn't been discussed would be to meet with Jeff Collins one and one and see if you guys can set up some kind of deal. You help each other, share networks, and support each other. In exchange, you won't challenge him for his seat, thereby almost guaranteeing he will be in the next session of the legislature.

Jacque: In as short a time squeeze as five minutes is, all you can do is paint the picture of what they're doing. They're looking at a map with everyone's party registrations and deciding who they want in office. By splitting up Franklin County, they are effectively stating that Franklin County loses its voice in the legislature since its power is diluted. So, if they wanted to, the legislature could completely screw Franklin over since they have been effectively neutralized. With Glen, they have a representative.

[DeadheadForPaul]

You will receive a flood of donations from us as soon as you decide to run

I hope you are using this opportunity as an elected official to speak at Tea Party events and to build networks and link up with supporters local, state-wide and nationally

[GunnyFreedom]

Going from State House to Congress isn't a huge leap, that is very doable. What is the R to D in the congressional district in question? Who is the biggest Republican looking to run? Do you have good in roads with the county party? Is there someone in the county/state party in that area who typically interviews the R candidates? Early interviewing could cause other candidates to pick a different race. Word would spread fast and the activists would mention that to anyone who said they wanted to run.

I am the former vice chair of the Franklin County Republican Party, and I am standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the current Chair of the FCGOP tonight to seek a resolution from the Franklin County Board of Commissioners opposing Franklin County being split up. I'm tight with the GOP in my county. I am so because I took Ron Paul's advice in 2007.

[GunnyFreedom]

You will receive a flood of donations from us as soon as you decide to run

I hope you are using this opportunity as an elected official to speak at Tea Party events and to build networks and link up with supporters local, state-wide and nationally

I am also THE 'tea party darling' amongst all the grassroots (non astroturf) tea parties in NC. Even the ones that scare us. When my own NC Ron Paulers were telling me not to associate with so-and-so I dug in deeper. and now only the astoturf tea parties do not consider me #1 in the state. I'm actually not exaggerating.

[realtonygoodwin]

I wish we had hundreds of folks on these boards doing the same thing you are sir.

[Michigan11]

Glen, I will back you with everything I have if you so choose to run for US rep, which I hope you do.

[GunnyFreedom]

The problem is, it is a whole new district and it won't be finalized for another month, which makes game planning difficult in the interim. All we can do is use the current Cook rating for NC's 2nd which is R+2. Renee Elmers, a Freshman Republican, currently holds the seat. However, a Democrat had held the seat for the previous 14 years. Gunny would have to beat her in a Primary. She won under some interesting circumstances and is obviously not even close to Gunny's level in terms of being pro-liberty. For instance, she voted for the first PATRIOT Act this year that failed. Gunny obviously would never have voted for the monstrosity. Here voting record can be found here (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/E000291). She votes with Republicans 95% of the time.

Gunny: If setting up the PAC isn't too stressful or work intensive, it sounds like the best possible option with little to no downside. Also, one idea that hasn't been discussed would be to meet with Jeff Collins one and one and see if you guys can set up some kind of deal. You help each other, share networks, and support each other. In exchange, you won't challenge him for his seat, thereby almost guaranteeing he will be in the next session of the legislature.

That's a little bit brilliant. "Yeah I know I'm still needed in the State House, but look what they did to us. here, it's 4 years early but how about if I run for Congress and you get the district to yourself. Help me out though because I'll need Nash County to win, and if I can't get Nash County there is no sense in even running for Congress yet and I may as well try my hand in the State House again. Hey, how about those contacts and donor lists? How about putting a good word in for me on the campaign trail? You aren't doing anything else during primary season anyway...."

Hell yeah, and with Franklin and Nash, I just have to chip away a little at Johnson County...


Jacque: In as short a time squeeze as five minutes is, all you can do is paint the picture of what they're doing. They're looking at a map with everyone's party registrations and deciding who they want in office. By splitting up Franklin County, they are effectively stating that Franklin County loses its voice in the legislature since its power is diluted. So, if they wanted to, the legislature could completely screw Franklin over since they have been effectively neutralized. With Glen, they have a representative.

[tsai3904]

Renee Ellmers' voting record hasn't been that good.

Here are some of her votes during the recent Agriculture Appropriations Bill:

No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll427.xml) - Reduce funding for the Agricultural Marketing Services by $7.75 million (10 percent)
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll425.xml) - Reduce funding for the Economic Research Service by $7 million (10 percent)
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll423.xml) - Reduce funding for operation, maintenance, improvement, and repair of Agriculture buildings and facilities by $20.9 million (10 percent)
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll439.xml) - Prohibit the use of funds ($147 million) to be used to provide payments to the Brazil Cotton Institute.
Yes (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll459.xml) - FY 2012 Agriculture Appropriations Bill (bill that spends more in FY 2012 than in FY 2011)


Other interesting votes:

No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll400.xml) - Prohibits TSA from using full-body image scanners as "mandatory or primary" screening devices. In other words, they can be used only as an option during secondary screening.
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll399.xml) - Prohibits TSA from purchasing new full-body image scanners.
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll402.xml) - Ten percent across-the-board cut to the Department of Homeland Security's budget (except for Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll412.xml) - Directing the President to remove the U.S. Armed Forces from Libya
No (http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll364.xml) - Requiring DoD to "commence a safe, responsible, and phased withdrawal" of Armed Forces from Afghanistan.


All of these votes are opposite of Ron Paul and Justin Amash.

[GunnyFreedom]

I would need the funds to hire a real-deal campaign manager, not just picking someone from among friends, and someone who is genuinely on our team. Need to interface with Rand's people for suggestions on that. And a fundraising person that can keep track of donor relations. I am pitiful at that.

[TCE]

That's a little bit brilliant. "Yeah I know I'm still needed in the State House, but look what they did to us. here, it's 4 years early but how about if I run for Congress and you get the district to yourself. Help me out though because I'll need Nash County to win, and if I can't get Nash County there is no sense in even running for Congress yet and I may as well try my hand in the State House again. Hey, how about those contacts and donor lists? How about putting a good word in for me on the campaign trail? You aren't doing anything else during primary season anyway...."

Hell yeah, and with Franklin and Nash, I just have to chip away a little at Johnson County...

Thank you. :)

You could probably speak with him in private about it, because I am thinking he will have some opposing pressure exerted on him by Mr. Stam to not accept your olive branch. It benefits Mr. Collins to work with you so he can skate to a safe seat. I'm sure you know some people and/or skills that would be useful to him as well. It also helps that, besides his police powers stance, he is a nice upgrade from the run-of-the-mill Republican.

tsai: And that is in the first six months. Calculate it out. If she votes with Republicans a.k.a. Boehner 95% of the time, well, she certainly isn't representing her district very well first off as I doubt John Boehner's interests almost always reflect those of North Carolina's second district, and secondly, she is, by default, against liberty. Gunny's campaign could be framing himself as the independent candidate who isn't beholden to the Republican Elites. And, Franklin Country would have a voice on the NATIONAL stage, how much more could they want?

P.S. Me thinks this should be moved to HT or somewhere similar...

[tpreitzel]

I would need the funds to hire a real-deal campaign manager, not just picking someone from among friends, and someone who is genuinely on our team. Need to interface with Rand's people for suggestions on that. And a fundraising person that can keep track of donor relations. I am pitiful at that.

Glen, I been preoccupied elsewhere on the forums so I haven't been following developments. Have you tried contacting Walter Jones for advice? Anyway, more tomorrow

[TCE]

Glen, I been preoccupied elsewhere on the forums so I haven't been following developments. Have you tried contacting Walter Jones for advice?

+1

I can't believe I didn't think of him. On that note, B.J. would also probably be worth contacting because I'm sure he has donor lists and advice. Also, if memory serves, you guys have spoken before, no?

[Michigan11]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc-vl6RQ9as&feature=player_embedded#at=155

[One Last Battle!]

Would senate be easier? I heard the current senator in NC is widely disliked.

[oyarde]

Good Luck . I understand funding being the main issue . THat is where it would have to start.

[MozoVote]

Would senate be easier? I heard the current senator in NC is widely disliked.

That would be throwing money in the ditch. A one-term NC House Legislator won't be taken seriously by campaign donors or the local press for a statewide race. And there will be better funded NCGOP party regulars girding to take on Kay Hagan anyway.

[jacque]

Glen and the chairman of Franklin County GOP are meeting with the county commissioners tonight and taking with them a lot of support. I am not sure what good it will do but at least we are showing them that Glen has more support then they realize.

[1836]

+1

I can't believe I didn't think of him. On that note, B.J. would also probably be worth contacting because I'm sure he has donor lists and advice. Also, if memory serves, you guys have spoken before, no?

Yes. BJ and Walter Jones would be great to have.

[Austin]

Also Glen, you may have a 7th option. Run for county commission and serve there for 4 years. It's not a legilsatively commanding place to be, but you would establish deeper rapport with people all over the county, which could help you when the next best opportunity crops up.

Sound advice

[KCIndy]

Glen, I will back you with everything I have if you so choose to run for US rep, which I hope you do.

Ditto the sentiment.

I would really hope that everyone here on RPF would dig really, really deep to help out.

[AJ Antimony]

You know your situation more than I do. You know North Carolina more than I do.

But I still feel like I have to say, please don't run for a seat solely because redistricting 'forced' you to. You should run for a seat at a particular time because that time represents your best chance of winning that seat. Don't feel that if you're going to get screwed out of your current job, you must immediately win a new job.

For example, let's say your congressional district is GOP and has been represented by the same guy for 20 years. Let's say he's going to retire in 2014. If you're going to lose your seat in 2012, then it would be really stupid of you to run for this congressional seat that year. You would be beaten miserably in the primary. It would instead be to your advantage to wait until 2014 in which you would have a much better shot at winning.

Again, I'm very confident that I don't need to tell you this, but I had to say something because your post makes it sound like you're going to run for a higher office solely due to redistricting and not because of sound political logic.

[GunnyFreedom]

You know your situation more than I do. You know North Carolina more than I do.

But I still feel like I have to say, please don't run for a seat solely because redistricting 'forced' you to. You should run for a seat at a particular time because that time represents your best chance of winning that seat. Don't feel that if you're going to get screwed out of your current job, you must immediately win a new job.

For example, let's say your congressional district is GOP and has been represented by the same guy for 20 years. Let's say he's going to retire in 2014. If you're going to lose your seat in 2012, then it would be really stupid of you to run for this congressional seat that year. You would be beaten miserably in the primary. It would instead be to your advantage to wait until 2014 in which you would have a much better shot at winning.

Again, I'm very confident that I don't need to tell you this, but I had to say something because your post makes it sound like you're going to run for a higher office solely due to redistricting and not because of sound political logic.

There was sound political logic to run for Congress in 2010. I dare say there is even more now. A freshman Republican was elected that votes 98% with the Speaker. Hated by the tea parties, loves PATRIOT and the TSA, all the while claiming to be a constitutionalist. I might could tolerate it for a few terms if she didn't claim to be a constitutionalist, but it's really making me need to vomit. She really needs to go.

[GunnyFreedom]

I have proposed a map of my own:

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/plansAB.gif

[White Bear Lake]

Nice map.

If anyone wants to mess around with redistricting, I recommend DRA. It's quite handy:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

[MozoVote]

I expect the goal posts to move a few more times, before this is over. The word redistricting is followed by the word "fight" much of the time.

[jacque]

Good evening Representatives and fellow North Carolinians.

I am here tonight to speak against your gerrymandered VRA district 23. My name is Jacque Esslinger and I am a property owner in Franklin County. We bought our land in 1984 and built our home our selves. Our US Representative Districts have change but I always knew that I had representation going to Raleigh for me. My Representative lived in my community. They knew our county's needs and went to Raleigh for us.

As it stands, the new district will put 2 current Representative living within the same district. If you don't live in Franklin County, you are considered an outsider. What kind of a representation will Franklin County have from someone that lives in Nash County? He does not know our needs as a community.

Article 2 Section 5 Clause 3 of the North Carolina State Constituion reads, "No county shall be divided in the formation of a representative district;" NC Constitutional requirement is that the counties not be divided, the primary intent of districting should be to keep communities whole. A county is a community of townships grouped together to form 1 person = 1 vote.

If you divide Nash county in half from North to South and make the eastern half a district and take the western half of Nash County , all of Franklin County and and the southern tip of Vance County, we will still have your VRA district and keep Franklin County whole as it has been in the past.

Please consider this proposal thoroughly, keeping Franklin County whole, before locking in your VRA #23. That gerrymandering does not help the people of Nash or Franklin County. We entrusted our Representatives in Raleigh to the right thing for all North Carolinians, not just the few.

I have also printed 5 copies of the map Glen posted.

[bkreigh]

I have proposed a map of my own:

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/plansAB.gif

What the fuck is that shit? (in regards to plan A)

[eduardo89]

What the fuck is that shit? (in regards to plan A)

Politics.

[MozoVote]

It looks like that map would cleave Louisburg (the county seat) away from the more populated southern precincts (the exurbs of Raleigh).

That is a really raw deal that should piss off the county commission.

If anyone thinks this kind of stuff does not matter, I have an example in Guilford county. One of the GOP commissioners has a legislator pushing a bill to force the county commission to downsize from 11 to 9 members. (That commission is generally a 7 to 4 Dem majority). County commissions and the Legislature *can* find themselves on the opposite sides of issues sometimes. It does not help matters if your county has legislators elected with frayed alliances.

[trey4sports]

Glen, if you were forced to run for U.S. Congress would you have to primary the incumbent? Also, is the district pretty solidly red, meaning the challenge would simply be in winning the primary?

[jacque]

Glen, if you were forced to run for U.S. Congress would you have to primary the incumbent? Also, is the district pretty solidly red, meaning the challenge would simply be in winning the primary?

Yes. The incumbent is our very own Renee Ellmers. She won on being a conservative for Liberty and the Constitution. So far she has voted for the Patriot Act, Obamacare instead of getting rid of it, with the "party" instead of the people. Many true conservatives are very upset with her. And yes, they have redistricted her district now to be red.

[eduardo89]

Yes. The incumbent is our very own Renee Ellmers. She won on being a conservative for Liberty and the Constitution. So far she has voted for the Patriot Act, Obamacare instead of getting rid of it, with the "party" instead of the people. Many true conservatives are very upset with her. And yes, they have redistricted her district now to be red.

Being redistricted out of the state house might be a blessing in disguise. This might be the best opportunity for Glenn to run for congress. We have a freshman republican which a of people are (apparently) disgruntled with and a redrawn friendlier district to run in. I hope it works out if Glenn doesn't keep his state rep seat!

[bkreigh]

Politics.

Ahh that explains it. I thought they hired Michael J Fox to draw a line east to west.

[eduardo89]

Ahh that explains it. I thought they hired Michael J Fox to draw a line east to west.

Cruel but made me laugh so hard +rep

[White Bear Lake]

You might not even be in the 2nd district. The GOP is going to go after Miller and get rid of him by removing the 13th's fingers into Raleigh and Greensboro. They may possibly draw Franklin into the new 13th which would then need a Republican to go after Miller who will be without his Democratic base. They could also draw you into the 1st which would be a black-majority district where you would have no chance. Most likely they'll probably split Franklin between the 1st and 2nd or 1st and 13th with the minority precincts in the 1st. Then you'd be in the same position as you are with the state house.

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/preview/congdist/pagecgd109_NC2.gif

[AJ Antimony]

There was sound political logic to run for Congress in 2010. I dare say there is even more now. A freshman Republican was elected that votes 98% with the Speaker. Hated by the tea parties, loves PATRIOT and the TSA, all the while claiming to be a constitutionalist. I might could tolerate it for a few terms if she didn't claim to be a constitutionalist, but it's really making me need to vomit. She really needs to go.
Ok, but that's your opinion. Is that a majority of the GOP voters' opinion? Don't forget, GOP voters in your district just knowingly elected this guy. Again, you know so much more about your district than I do, but your language worries me.

First your original post makes it sound like you want to run for Congress solely because you may lose your district. Now you make it sound like you want to run for Congress for emotional reasons--you don't like the current Rep. All I'm saying is that you have to make sure you have some REAL political proof that 2012 is the best time (best chances) to run for Congress that you'll ever have in your entire life.

Can you out-fundraise the incumbent?
Do polls confirm what you say about the incumbent that she is VERY unpopular back home even though she's a freshman?
Have you spoken to party bigwigs who would welcome your primary challenge?
Have you spoken to voters who do NOT like Ron Paul? Do they not like the incumbent?
You've been in the news due to some "controversial" bills you've sponsored. Would GOP voters in your CD like this record? Are you sure?

Being a Tea Party challenger to a career politician like Orrin Hatch or Lisa Murkowski or Charlie Crist is one thing, but being a Tea Party challenger to a House freshman is something else. I'm sorry but I've just never heard of an entire district get sick of their Rep. after just 1 term.

So please, don't run for a higher office without thinking everything though and confirming as many hunches as possible. The more assumptions you make, the more likely you are to fail.

[MozoVote]

You might not even be in the 2nd district. The GOP is going to go after Miller and get rid of him by removing the 13th's fingers into Raleigh and Greensboro. They may possibly draw Franklin into the new 13th which would then need a Republican to go after Miller who will be without his Democratic base. They could also draw you into the 1st which would be a black-majority district where you would have no chance. Most likely they'll probably split Franklin between the 1st and 2nd or 1st and 13th with the minority precincts in the 1st. Then you'd be in the same position as you are with the state house.


The 1st (Butterfield's) is underpopulated and needs to grow. I do think it's likely that it will expand to at least the northern half of Franklin, which is 40% minority vote.

The remaining intrigue is what the NCGOP wants to do with the southern half of Franklin. They might go ahead and toss it into the 1st district as well, and wrap themselves in the argument that they kept the county whole. The 13th is unlikely unless the NCGOP seriously wants to make the 13th competitive... Although there are rumors that a new 13th could emerge that is minorty-majority instead, stretching across I-85 from east Greensboro to West Raleigh. If that happens, the southern half of Franklin *will* go to either the 1st or 2nd.

Looks like Glen will just have to weigh every option until the maps settle down.

[TCE]

Ok, but that's your opinion. Is that a majority of the GOP voters' opinion? Don't forget, GOP voters in your district just knowingly elected this guy. Again, you know so much more about your district than I do, but your language worries me.

First your original post makes it sound like you want to run for Congress solely because you may lose your district. Now you make it sound like you want to run for Congress for emotional reasons--you don't like the current Rep. All I'm saying is that you have to make sure you have some REAL political proof that 2012 is the best time (best chances) to run for Congress that you'll ever have in your entire life.

Can you out-fundraise the incumbent?
Do polls confirm what you say about the incumbent that she is VERY unpopular back home even though she's a freshman?
Have you spoken to party bigwigs who would welcome your primary challenge?
Have you spoken to voters who do NOT like Ron Paul? Do they not like the incumbent?
You've been in the news due to some "controversial" bills you've sponsored. Would GOP voters in your CD like this record? Are you sure?

Being a Tea Party challenger to a career politician like Orrin Hatch or Lisa Murkowski or Charlie Crist is one thing, but being a Tea Party challenger to a House freshman is something else. I'm sorry but I've just never heard of an entire district get sick of their Rep. after just 1 term.

So please, don't run for a higher office without thinking everything though and confirming as many hunches as possible. The more assumptions you make, the more likely you are to fail.

Man, this thread has gotten heated in a day or so. I'm sure Gunny will have his own response, but here's mine:

I am the first one to run out and scream on this board that someone has no chance. I have said it many times and will surely many more. This is quite a different case. Renee Elmers barely won in 2010 in a heavily Republican year and after a scandal of sorts came about from Bob Etheridge. I agree with you on all of your points, if Gunny can't out fundraise her and the polls don't translate to a likely winning percentage, he should give it up. However, on your point about defeating an established incumbent, well, it's much harder than defeating a Freshman. A Freshman is not entrenched, she isn't known by her constituents very well, and especially after this redistricting many won't know her.

In conclusion, the jury is still out on whether running for Congress would be the best move, but it appears to be a coin flip at this moment in time. I'm sure as the weeks and months go by, the information will be available to make a sound decision.

White Bear Lake: There has been a law in North Carolina since Civil War Reconstruction that allows candidates to run for Congress even in districts that they don't live in, so no matter where Gunny's physical house moves to, he can run for CD2.

[GunnyFreedom]

Well, I may just about be the only Republican in America who could win in a VRA district right now. That probably scares them too.

[AJ Antimony]

This is quite a different case. Renee Elmers barely won in 2010 in a heavily Republican year and after a scandal of sorts came about from Bob Etheridge.
I'm not talking about the GE, I'm strictly talking about the primary. How did Elmers do in the primary? Was it a 10 man race where she won with 20%? Or was it a 2 man race where she won with 60%?

[tsai3904]

I'm not talking about the GE, I'm strictly talking about the primary. How did Elmers do in the primary? Was it a 10 man race where she won with 20%? Or was it a 2 man race where she won with 60%?

Todd Gailas (REP) 19.17% 3,190
Renee Ellmers (REP) 55.11% 9,171
Frank Deatrich (REP) 25.72% 4,280

[White Bear Lake]

White Bear Lake: There has been a law in North Carolina since Civil War Reconstruction that allows candidates to run for Congress even in districts that they don't live in, so no matter where Gunny's physical house moves to, he can run for CD2.

He could but it would be even more difficult without having your base county being able to vote for you.


Well, I may just about be the only Republican in America who could win in a VRA district right now. That probably scares them too.


You think you could win the 1st? You'd probably have no problem winning the nomination there if Franklin gets redistricted into the first. I doubt the GOP has any kind of bench in a VRA district.

[AJ Antimony]

Todd Gailas (REP) 19.17% 3,190
Renee Ellmers (REP) 55.11% 9,171
Frank Deatrich (REP) 25.72% 4,280

Yeah, from this is looks like Ellmers was the hand picked candidate and was supported by a comfortable majority of GOP voters. It looks like she may be tough to beat in a GOP primary, especially now that she's the incumbent. Again, we just need to see some polls or approval ratings to see just how vulnerable she can be in 2012 in the GOP primary.

[MozoVote]

You think you could win the 1st? You'd probably have no problem winning the nomination there if Franklin gets redistricted into the first. I doubt the GOP has any kind of bench in a VRA district.

It would be a huge undertaking, but not impossible. Glen already won a district that had been Gerrymandered for Democrats. People may be getting tired of Butterfield, and take an interest in the campaign if someone makes a serious try at unseating him.

The first district however is very LARGE ... and the effort to canvass it would be like running for governor in a small state.

[GunnyFreedom]

All you who use Daves redistricting, I have a rough plan for half the state. I need to pull about 3/4 of a district out of the "plusses" into the unassigned area, but I am working to develop an alternative statewide plan based on keeping communities whole.

Help me tweak on this a bit:

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/LD2.drf

Once I get the rough draft in place, I can go to the real computers and redraw them according to the population blocks and completely perfect the map.

[GunnyFreedom]

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/widemap.gif

:D

[jacque]

I have already suggested running in the 1st. Glen got a lot of support from his district in Halifax County but you are correct. It is a very big district. We will have to see what happens.

[GunnyFreedom]

These are almost totally compliant while using exclusively whole precincts. It would not take much population-block tuning to achieve perfection. I did keep a few too many over districts in the east, so I will need to collapse one in the middle somewhere.

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/NCLDalpha.gif

[TCE]

Yeah, from this is looks like Ellmers was the hand picked candidate and was supported by a comfortable majority of GOP voters. It looks like she may be tough to beat in a GOP primary, especially now that she's the incumbent. Again, we just need to see some polls or approval ratings to see just how vulnerable she can be in 2012 in the GOP primary.

http://www.fayobserver.com/Articles/2010/04/22/991741

It was basically her and two scrubs who wanted to do it for fun. Doesn't say much about her competency, but again, the question will be if she's vulnerable at all. Agreed. If she is below 45% for an approval rating amongst Republicans, she's vulnerable.

[GunnyFreedom]

Actually both of those scrubs were about 85-90% of the way Ron Paulers, and neither of them were doing it for fun.

[ifthenwouldi]

I have to admit that state politics are a bit confusing to me. (That probably has to do with the fact I grew up in the western part of the state. Since I moved to the eastern half of Wake County, my eyes have been opened).

I wish you the best of luck, Gunny.

[GunnyFreedom]

All you who use Daves redistricting, I have a rough plan for half the state. I need to pull about 3/4 of a district out of the "plusses" into the unassigned area, but I am working to develop an alternative statewide plan based on keeping communities whole.

Help me tweak on this a bit:

http://www.ncconstitutionalliberty.com/LD2.drf

Once I get the rough draft in place, I can go to the real computers and redraw them according to the population blocks and completely perfect the map.

it's awful hard work.

[TCE]

Actually both of those scrubs were about 85-90% of the way Ron Paulers, and neither of them were doing it for fun.

...:(

[GunnyFreedom]

...:(

Yeah, we didn't raise too big a noise in the liberty community, because we knew they would split the vote no matter what, and that made it way too high of a hurdle. they prepped the groundwork very well on the 'old' CD2 tho, enough that the neocon who won had to run on obeying the Constitution.

[MozoVote]

Public reaction to the plans described as "overwhelmingly negative"

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9773867/


And Franklin County GOP chair Jeremy Neal called the proposed maps "a joke" that would "come back to bite the Republican party."

"These maps, I think, are being thrown to fulfill an agenda and to pull strings," Neal said. "I cannot put a positive spin on this, even if my party is in power and is drawing the maps."

[GunnyFreedom]

Public reaction to the plans described as "overwhelmingly negative"

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9773867/

Yes, yes it was. However, I am under no illusions anymore about whether my colleagues will pay attention no matter how much the public comes out to ask them to change their minds. The only thing they pay attention to publicly, is the electoral returns, and then only because they have to.

;) :D

[GunnyFreedom]

With all the extra yelling from Halifax County (esp Halifax Co NAACP) about how they want to keep Angela Bryant, I think I can come up with a proposed compromise where they do...

[White Bear Lake]

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lbsTMa1-eKU/Tg4BWkG2aqI/AAAAAAAAAS8/57k89kp_h00/mapMain.png

Like I predicted would happen, Franklin County has been split between the 1st (VRA) and 13th districts in the new NC congressional maps released today. The good news: the 13th has a democrat incumbent but the district is now 56% GOP, 44% Democrat. (used to be 40% GOP, 60% Dem)

Whoever wins the GOP primary gets a seat in Congress.

[GunnyFreedom]

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lbsTMa1-eKU/Tg4BWkG2aqI/AAAAAAAAAS8/57k89kp_h00/mapMain.png

Like I predicted would happen, Franklin County has been split between the 1st (VRA) and 13th districts in the new NC congressional maps released today. The good news: the 13th has a democrat incumbent but the district is now 56% GOP, 44% Democrat. (used to be 40% GOP, 60% Dem)

Whoever wins the GOP primary gets a seat in Congress.

I was just looking at this, and was coming here to post it. GMTA huh? :D

Yeah, this is a weird one. This map puts me living in the new 13th vs Brad Miller, there will be a GOP primary fight, but this is basically the equivalent of an open seat. Also note that BJ Lawson now lives in the 2nd, safe GOP vs Renee Ellmers.

I'm still trying to figure out what to make of this map, and how strong the 13th will actually be for the GOP. I see they removed Renee Ellmers as far from me as possible, but I am surprised to see my home ending up in the low hanging fruit of the 13th.


ETA: I am basically in the far south west corner of Franklin where it comes against Granville to the West and Wake to the South.

[GunnyFreedom]

Also, Bill Randall will likely be running for the 13th again. :( that will split the tea parties

[tsai3904]

Also, Bill Randall will likely be running for the 13th again. :( that will split the tea parties

His 2010 campaign is still in debt to the tune of $43k while only raising $213k. Those don't seem like great numbers.

[trey4sports]

so what is the bottom line, are you the favorite to win your state house seat? What about BJ lawson, his district is now red? Will he have to face an incumbent?

[Imperial]

I was just looking at this, and was coming here to post it. GMTA huh? :D

Yeah, this is a weird one. This map puts me living in the new 13th vs Brad Miller, there will be a GOP primary fight, but this is basically the equivalent of an open seat. Also note that BJ Lawson now lives in the 2nd, safe GOP vs Renee Ellmers.

I'm still trying to figure out what to make of this map, and how strong the 13th will actually be for the GOP. I see they removed Renee Ellmers as far from me as possible, but I am surprised to see my home ending up in the low hanging fruit of the 13th.


ETA: I am basically in the far south west corner of Franklin where it comes against Granville to the West and Wake to the South.

The question is how much of your current district is in the 13th. But the numbers I saw is that, based on 2008 presidential numbers, the seat has swung by 16% to the GOP. If you win the primary here you should be safe. It will be crowded though, since I am sure you are not the only politico who wants to move up.

[PBrady]

Sort of relevant...but my State House district (currently held by Paul Stam) will be split (so I've heard through the grape vine), leaving the newly created district without an incumbent in a heavy R area.

Should I run as a Year of Youth candidate? :D

[jacque]

Sort of relevant...but my State House district (currently held by Paul Stam) will be split (so I've heard through the grape vine), leaving the newly created district without an incumbent in a heavy R area.

Should I run as a Year of Youth candidate? :D

I think that is a great idea. We also need someone to bump Skip out of his seat....The biggest GOP snake in the House.

[GunnyFreedom]

so what is the bottom line, are you the favorite to win your state house seat? What about BJ lawson, his district is now red? Will he have to face an incumbent?

I would be the favorite....if they were not turning my NC House district into a salamander, and giving 70% of the population to an insider incumbent. BJ is now safe Republican, and there is a very unpopular Republican holding the seat as the incumbent.

[GunnyFreedom]

Sort of relevant...but my State House district (currently held by ...) will be split (so I've heard through the grape vine), leaving the newly created district without an incumbent in a heavy R area.

Should I run as a Year of Youth candidate? :D

love the idea. You guys should be more careful with names in GP.

[ifthenwouldi]

Looks like east Wake got dumped into the 1st district...

[GunnyFreedom]

Looks like east Wake got dumped into the 1st district...

I noticed that