Iowa report online poll Iowa residents only -- Ron Paul tied for 2d w/ likely caucus goers

[sailingaway]

http://www.graction21.com/iowareport/imgs/pollresults_110608likely.jpg

If you are from Iowa you can vote in the next round of polling, here:

http://www.2012iowareport.com/

[tremendoustie]

These numbers are outstanding -- only 1% from 1st!

I hope this poll reflects reality.

[sailingaway]

He was lower with all voting, but still ok, but higher with caucus goers. A bunch responding apparently had no intention of going to the caucus.

[t0rnado]

The type of people who do go to caucuses very fervently support whoever they do. Do not get discouraged by polls that show Ron Paul losing to people like Romney and Cain because 9% of support in the polls translates to a lot more support in the caucuses and conventions.

[Mallory]

If Sarah Palin doesn't run, RP could be in first. And winning Ames will help too.

[R3volutionJedi]

Sarah Palin should NOT run.


If she's not running, then we'll only have to deal with Herman, Mitt, and Michele for Iowa. So, if we work hard enough . RP will be able to pull something off.

[wgadget]

Yesterday I heard Eric Erickson (Redstate.com) say that he was surprised at how well Ron Paul is running his campaign this time around, that Ron has got some great campaign managers and is sending out some great emails.

Not bad, coming from a neocon...

[Oukvekpwv]

i shared the link on the Iowa for Ron Paul FB group

[cdc482]

Wow this is great news! We can win Ames!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQWc_Gxm1Dk

[RonPaul101.com]

If Sarah Palin doesn't run, RP could be in first. And winning Ames will help too.

I think the odds are she does not run for President. Say 60~65% chance against her running; hopefully I'm right. People think she will because of her campaign-like schedule these days, but she has continued to grow funding for her PAC and has not filed for a PEC. I believe this is intentional so that she can use the more relax guidelines of a PAC and wield power over whichever candidate she wants along the way. She'll keep the Fox News job and set her sites for 2016; her people are telling her that is going to be a better year for her chances because they assume Obama gets re-elected regardless. We here all know the economy will likely erode Obama's numbers everyday until the election.

[sailingaway]

Bachmann is very strong in Iowa as is Pawlenty. Apparently that 'neighbor' bit keeps them both in the headlines pretty effectively. And Bachmann and Cain have been visiting the local tea party groups since January, at least. We have a good shot, but it sure isn't going to be a cakewalk.

[The Dark Knight]

Caucuses benefit us because it favors the strong grassroots candidates. I will say that Ron Paul will do 5-10% better in Caucus than a primary. I wish the polls in Iowa were polls of Caucus goers instead of likely voters. They would be much more accurate.

[PaulConventionWV]

He was lower with all voting, but still ok, but higher with caucus goers. A bunch responding apparently had no intention of going to the caucus.

That's the way it usually is with caucuses. This is a great poll!

[sailingaway]

Caucuses benefit us because it favors the strong grassroots candidates. I will say that Ron Paul will do 5-10% better in Caucus than a primary. I wish the polls in Iowa were polls of Caucus goers instead of likely voters. They would be much more accurate.

Yeah but Bachmann Cain and Pawlenty are going for the activist grass roots, too.

[PaulConventionWV]

Yeah but Bachmann Cain and Pawlenty are going for the activist grass roots, too.

They'll never get it like we do, though. Not even close. We can only pull ahead from here. We have to make a full-out effort in Iowa to win the caucus. Our chances are looking very good right now. If we pull that off, there's no telling what would happen in the other states. If we win Iowa, I think Nevada would be another likely win.

[Jeremy]

You guys are confusing me. Isn't this an online poll?

[Aldanga]

Also, is it scientific?

[sailingaway]

Also, is it scientific?


You guys are confusing me. Isn't this an online poll?


No, and no, but it is Iowa residents only, and caucus goers and straw poll attendees tend to be more activist and likely to be drawn to this kind of poll. I'm not saying it is scientific, but that it is of Iowans, only, and broke down those likely to attend the caucus and those not, with interesting results, made it worth looking at I thought.

[Aldanga]

It is interesting, but we shouldn't allow it to make us ease up in our efforts. We only have 2 months before the straw poll. We must win it.

[tmg19103]

Not sure how scientific this poll is, but I like it.

Says not all respondents will get to the straw poll/caucuses, but shows RP supporters are out there.

Key is to get them to the straw poll/caucuses as is being discussed in various threads.

Romney will be tough to beat given money and organization, but 2nd is key in the straw poll and caucuses.

That will get a lot of people seriously considering RP.

I see Romney fading like he did last election - and this time Romneycare is a bigger deal.

I doubt Palin will run, but she can make any candidate a front runner given her mindless supporters on Fox.

Since Palin is religious right and a neocon warmonger, I can't see he getting behind RP. Just hope she does not rip him too much on Fox.

The focus needs to be the economy where RP is the strongest and while I don't like it happening as it is, the economy going further into the dumps will help RP.

Glad to see Palin and Bachmann feuding. Their supporters overlap a bit, and I would love to see Palin's supporters spread out over a bunch of candidates as opposed to one.

Iowa is a very conservative christian state. If RP can get 2nd to a Mormon the straw poll (RP could win, but Romney has so my money and organization and did it last time) and 2nd in the caucuses, this will mean a lot for a tough christian states like SC where RP is not polling well.

Easy for RP to pivot away from religion in NH and NV.

What really surprised me last election was how RP did not do better in NH. I expect Romney to get a lot support there due to it being next to Mass. and him practically living there lately.

RP needs a 2nd in NH because I don't see him doing well in SC given polling, unless doing well in IA and NH changes views there.

A win in NV would be great. That's one state where the grassroots is really strong and could make it happen.

This makes RP a front runner. I see Romney fading but hanging in their due to his cash.

Note how McCain came out of nowhere last election. Did not participate in IA, big bump in NH and Fox got behind him when he had been dead weight with no money.

The key is to watch out for the next McCain that Fox will Trump. Could be any candidate as nobody expected it rorm McCain.

Could Fox get behind RP? Very doubtful unless he starts off very strong and the economy is really in the dumps and the whole election focuses on that.

[sailingaway]

But wasn't Ron pulled from the debate right before the election, despite doing better than Guiliani, sending a huge, late, signal? I wasn't tracking him then, but that is what I have read since.

[Aldanga]

Yep. Fox News removed him from the debate that was the night before the primary. The NH Republican Party removed their sponsorship of the debate because of the actions Fox News.

[sailingaway]

Yep. Fox News removed him from the debate that was the night before the primary. The NH Republican Party removed their sponsorship of the debate because of the actions Fox News.

And wasn't it the day before that primary that Reason's folks ( per something circulating on the internet) spurred the New Republic article of the long debunked newsletter story, leaving no time to effectively respond as Ron was traveling around the state?

[FSP-Rebel]

And wasn't it the day before that primary that Reason's folks ( per something circulating on the internet) spurred the New Republic article of the long debunked newsletter story, leaving no time to effectively respond as Ron was traveling around the state?
Not sure but I remember it was our supposed buddy Tucker Carlson that made the expose the night before the primary on MSNBC. After that, I was surprised to see him allowed to emcee the Rally for the Republic.

[Jim Casey]

Yeah but Bachmann Cain and Pawlenty are going for the activist grass roots, too.
That's why we need those boots on the ground out there in Iowa. Out of staters can join in on the canvassing. Any carpools planned?

[Aldanga]

And wasn't it the day before that primary that Reason's folks ( per something circulating on the internet) spurred the New Republic article of the long debunked newsletter story, leaving no time to effectively respond as Ron was traveling around the state?
I honestly don't remember, but what I'm finding is that the rehashing of the story came from the New Republic (the title has since disappeared from their site, but the article remains) at midnight on the day of the primary, not Reason.


hxxp://www.tnr.com/article/politics/deleted-1

[rockandrollsouls]

This is an online poll, a domain in which we routinely dominate, so these numbers are certainly skewed a great deal. I would cut that number in half, at LEAST.

[sailingaway]

I honestly don't remember, but what I'm finding is that the rehashing of the story came from the New Republic (the title has since disappeared from their site, but the article remains) at midnight on the day of the primary, not Reason.


hxxp://www.tnr.com/article/politics/deleted-1

According to a post that gave names and details it started with a conference call including Reason to give the tip to the New Republic... not with the debunking parts, of course. http://formerbeltwaywonk.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/the-orange-line-anatomy-of-a-smear-campaign/

[Aldanga]

Fascinating. Thanks for the link. I remembered hearing that stuff, and I probably read it, but it's been so long that I couldn't remember what the sources were.

Reason has not been on my happy list for quite some time. I don't trust Welch or Gillespie. As for the others, I don't know where I stand.

[rich34]

This is very encouraging and a much better starting point than last time. Last time around it was still "who is Ron Paul" now his name recognition is way up there and folks are taking him very seriously. He'll have the cash to put out the commercials in the early states and is already getting paid staff on the ground to add to his army of support. He had none of this last time, especially the poll numbers. The establishment has to be very seriously considering their next move...ala Rick Perry???

[georgiaboy]

Yesterday I heard Eric Erickson (Redstate.com) say that he was surprised at how well Ron Paul is running his campaign this time around, that Ron has got some great campaign managers and is sending out some great emails.

Not bad, coming from a neocon...

Interesting indeed, and good to hear that he's making these kind of comments. Erick a neocon, though? He's more traditional conservative. He abhors the Georgia GOP-Dixiecrats, and is basically small gov't. Did he support McCain? I don't think so.
Anyway, good stuff.

[KurtBoyer25L]

I can't figure out for the life of me why everyone's happy at the prospects of various neoconservatives not running. Sure, if Ron Paul was the ONLY candidate for President we'd win, but that won't happen. Meanwhile if only a couple front-runners are getting votes and somebody like Romney gains 40% in some states, there is no way we can win. Better to have the mainstream vote split up miserably.

[sailingaway]

Interesting indeed, and good to hear that he's making these kind of comments. Erick a neocon, though? He's more traditional conservative. He abhors the Georgia GOP-Dixiecrats, and is basically small gov't. Did he support McCain? I don't think so.
Anyway, good stuff.

He's not a neocon but he gets confused by their arguments, sometimes.

[ChaosControl]

I predict when Ron Paul wins the Iowa caucus that all news media will report: ROMNEY WINS second place in IOWA CAUCUS!

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

Breaking: Obama comes in second in the Presidential election!
Crickets & in the underground: Ron Paul defeats Obama, reminders of Dewey and Truman!

[White Bear Lake]

Hot Air has a big post up: Romney is not participating in the Straw Poll!

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/09/wow-romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/

[sailingaway]

Hot Air has a big post up: Romney is not participating in the Straw Poll!

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/09/wow-romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/

Yeah, you only aren't getting responses because it is already posted in two other forums. The question is whether this is as 'he didn't participate in SRLC' but 'unaffiliated Pacs' will, or what. Time will tell.

[craezie]

I can't figure out for the life of me why everyone's happy at the prospects of various neoconservatives not running. Sure, if Ron Paul was the ONLY candidate for President we'd win, but that won't happen. Meanwhile if only a couple front-runners are getting votes and somebody like Romney gains 40% in some states, there is no way we can win. Better to have the mainstream vote split up miserably.

Exactly! Let's face it--a whole lot of people are still going to go for the "mainstream" Republican candidates. If there are only a couple of perceived "viable" choices out there, Paul is done. On the other hand, if the field stays the same and there are NeoCons out there spending their time and money attacking Romney for his liberal positions, Paul has a good chance of #1 or #2.

[jake]

Wow this is great news! We can win Ames!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQWc_Gxm1Dk

Ready, Ames, Fire!! Freedom is popular indeed Mr Paul.

[jake]

Breaking: Obama comes in second in the Presidential election!
Crickets & in the underground: Ron Paul defeats Obama, reminders of Dewey and Truman!

Dewey Truman
Obama Paul

I like it.

[fearthereaperx]

Man, Herman Cain is stealing our thunder!

[PaulConventionWV]

Hot Air has a big post up: Romney is not participating in the Straw Poll!

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/09/wow-romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/


But the former Massachusetts governor’s absence from the Aug. 13 straw poll will likely diminish his chances, some Iowa officials say, while raising the odds that whoever wins the poll will be best positioned to claim the status as Mr. Romney’s top rival for the nomination…

It's almost as if this was being set up for Paul. We need to jump on this opportunity because it means big things for us. We shall see, but right now it's looking like a big plus for us.