PPP Poll - South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary

[tsai3904]

South Carolina (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/romney-ahead-in-sc.html)
6/2 - 6/5
1,000 usual Republican primary voters
+/-3.1%

With Palin:

Romney 27%
Palin 18%
Cain 12%
Gingrich 12%
Bachmann 9%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 4%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Romney 30%
Cain 15%
Gingrich 15%
Bachmann 13%
Paul 10%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 2%


Ron Paul Favorability:

Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 31%
Not Sure 31%


Results from last South Carolina poll:

South Carolina (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/demint-up-in-sc-huckabee-otherwise.html)
1/28 - 1/30
559
+/-4.1%

Huckabee 26%
Romney 20%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 13%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 4%
Daniels 3%


Ron Paul Favorability:

Favorable 47%
Unfavorable 19%
Not Sure 34%

[trey4sports]

Not what I really want to see

[sailingaway]

Bachmann is being pushed by Fox as the real tea party candidate. That is going to be a real issue. She couldn't launch herself, but Fox can launch her, and she doesn't have the same tea party downsides Cain-the--fraud has.

I was hoping she would be limited to her neighboring states but it looks like she is getting a good chunk of the Huckabee vote, and people's relative lack of knowledge about her works in her favor as everyone is looking for the 'unknown white knight' to come in and save the GOP. I hope she'll have the same trajectory as Cain, but she's a better candidate for tea party types than Cain is -- it is just a matter of getting word about Cain's real self out there, where he is concerned. I think she's going to be Ron's big competition for the 'not Romney vote' because the establishment candidates have a settled process for whittling themselves down to the final one. The non establishment candidates are the wild cards, and Bachmann is, from leadership's view, a more manageable wild card than Ron is. At the end they'll pull up her general election polling and say 'Do you want to beat Obama, or don't you?' and will expect the base to fall in line. That wouldn't work with Ron, who often polls higher than Romney against Obama.

[The Dark Knight]

30% for Romney is South Carolina? wow. I had heard he is not very popular there but he is getting almost a third of the votes.

[TheState]

Paul's Favorability with women went from 37/18 to 29/33, with men, from 56/20 to 47/29.

Some serious hits.

[Aratus]

to N.E me that is a shock! Mitt did run there in 2008 and was whammied
by one of the bigger dirty tricks of the S.C race, the bogus X-mas card!

[anaconda]

The Cain-meister is surging. And Bachmann. This time I believe Ron will run 3rd Party. And make a real train wreck of things. In a good way.

[realtonygoodwin]

He won't run third party again, he has said that over and over.

[Kotin]

The Cain-meister is surging. And Bachmann. This time I believe Ron will run 3rd Party. And make a real train wreck of things. In a good way.
Lol that will never happen..

[PaulConventionWV]

He won't run third party again, he has said that over and over.

Agreed. I don't know why people keep saying he's going to run 3rd party. He's said he won't. I'm pretty sure that's final.

[Esoteric]

OBL comment is really killing us. Something has to be done quick.

Hopefully when they corner him with this question at the debate, he's got something prepared and doesn't flail around like a heroin addict again.

[trey4sports]

We need a "Rudy" moment to really catch fire.

[TheState]

OBL comment is really killing us. Something has to be done quick.

Do you really think it was the OBL comment or the first debate and follow-up press? I have no opinion one way or the other, just trying to get a feel.

Has anyone else talked to people on the ground lately and got a feel about what has caused the latest drop?

[low preference guy]

Do you really think it was the OBL comment or the first debate and follow-up press? I have no opinion one way or the other, just trying to get a feel.

Has anyone else talked to people on the ground lately and got a feel about what has caused the latest drop?

heroin?

[jware]

Do you really think it was the OBL comment or the first debate and follow-up press? I have no opinion one way or the other, just trying to get a feel.

Has anyone else talked to people on the ground lately and got a feel about what has caused the latest drop?

My aunt, who believed the Fox News spin, was very upset about the obl comment. I explained to her what he actually said and that eased her dislike a little bit, but I still don't think she has a very favorable opinion of him.

[Napoleon's Shadow]

This poll has got to be flawed if Romney is that high in SC.

[RP Supporter]

The big problem is Bachmann(And Palin, but she's not running.) I'd like to see a poll without either of them, I think it would show Paul at the very least close to second place. Even with her he's really just outside the margin of error for second place.

But the fact is Bachmann's running, and she along with Cain has stolen Paul's thunder. I have no doubt Cain will self implode. Bachmann I'm not so sure about.I just hope the campaign spends a lot of effort in the early states, especially Iowa. I really don't think Romney will win there, what with the rumors of him putting more attention into New Hampshire.

Depressing news, but the silver lining is that it's still fairly early. Where was Huckabee in the polls this time four years ago? Heck, where was Paul? A good showing at Ames and some excellent groundwork can still help us to win this. And given Paul will have more money then anyone but Romney at least, I still feel hopeful we can get our message across and really outspend Bachmann and Cain in the early states.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

The only poll that matters is the ballot box. Everything else is manipulation. If Ron loses this time though, this country is doomed. How are you supposed to defeat the most awesome goddamn propaganda machine ever created on a National Scale?

[ThePiousPriest]

I don't buy this poll, but I wont' deny that we've got our work cut out for us here. Gonna see if I can network with some fellow RP supporters here in the Upstate of SC.

[Badger Paul]

What people forget this is 10 percent of likely REPUBLICAN primary goers. In an open primary, you have an expanded field we need to take advantage of. We have a solid base to build on.

[Razmear]

We are not going to win SC without getting a lot of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. The 'Core Republicans' here are all neo-con bible thumpers. We got 4% last primary playing to the core, we need to play to the independents and Dem voters. Even if we paint Paul as a spoiler to vote for to knock off Romney.
btw, it is open primaries here, you select your preference when you check in.

eb

[Eric21ND]

Ron's OBL comment made him sound weak. I still don't know how to spin it to people that bring it up now.

[Guitarzan]

We are not going to win SC without getting a lot of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. The 'Core Republicans' here are all neo-con bible thumpers. We got 4% last primary playing to the core, we need to play to the independents and Dem voters. Even if we paint Paul as a spoiler to vote for to knock off Romney.
btw, it is open primaries here, you select your preference when you check in.

eb


Not a bad idea in an open primary state.

[Chieppa1]

Ron's OBL comment made him sound weak. I still don't know how to spin it to people that bring it up now.

If they use the word "constitution" or "liberty" in their little comments then hand them a Constitution and walk away. Because their hypocritical idiots.

[ItsTime]

You are going to give yourself a headache watching polls this early. We should be focusing on getting Ron Paul the funding he needs to set up shop in early states.

[BUSHLIED]

We are not going to win SC without getting a lot of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. The 'Core Republicans' here are all neo-con bible thumpers. We got 4% last primary playing to the core, we need to play to the independents and Dem voters. Even if we paint Paul as a spoiler to vote for to knock off Romney.
btw, it is open primaries here, you select your preference when you check in.

eb

I agree with this assessment. Just like Romney is going to downplay IOWA and focus on NH. Ron has to do the same in SC and focus on NH and NV instead. Unless of course, Jim DeMint endorses Ron Paul, Paul will end up in single digits like 2008.

SC apparently is a bible-thumping neocon stronghold...what a shame.

[nobody's_hero]

If republicans are going to support Romney, they need to shut the **** up about Obamacare.

That's all I have to say about these poll results.

[nobody's_hero]

If they use the word "constitution" or "liberty" in their little comments then hand them a Constitution and walk away. Because their hypocritical idiots.

Thomas Paine:

"He who would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from oppression—for if he fails to do so, he establishes a precedent that will reach unto himself."

If they don't understand what that quote means now, they will eventually, when they're rotting in a detention camp as a result of the very tools they let our government have to catch "enemy combatants."

[Kregisen]

If republicans are going to support Romney, they need to shut the **** up about Obamacare.

That's all I have to say about these poll results.

If Romney wins the primary, I better not see any complaining on universal healthcare, bailouts, gun bans, more wars, flip-flopping, or an overall big federal government.

Fucking ridiculous how stupid so many people are.

[randolphfuller]

Why should Ron run poorly in the South? He is the only Republican candidate willing to be candid about Lincoln and the War Between the States.

[anaconda]

Lol that will never happen..

I feel that Ron may very well run on the libertarian ticket if he is shut out of the Republican nomination. I think the chances are greater this time than last. I think there may be a number of strategic reasons for doing so at some point.

[anaconda]

Agreed. I don't know why people keep saying he's going to run 3rd party. He's said he won't. I'm pretty sure that's final.

I have not heard him say he won't. He only complains about ballot access and debate access. Didn't the Libertarian party get most or all of their 46 state ballot access in 2008 by convention time? Plus 15% gets him in the debates, right? Starting at about 10:03 he discusses it. He says it's "pretty unlikely." Not a "no."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60Ui3qln5Yk&feature=player_embedded