Listen Up Everyone!! We are not even contemplating throwing in the towel now!!

[pulp8721]

Guys,
Everybody who saw this new PPP poll needs to take a deep breath, relax, and realize that if we allow polls like this one in Iowa to get to our heads, we've already lost. We are not running an educational campaign, we are in it to win it. 4 years ago, nobody knew Ron outside of Texas. He was a fringe guy. Many thought his ideas were insane. I was one of those people:(.

When I first heard of Ron, I thought some of the things he said regarding the housing market, health care, and the drug war were inept, bullish, and would not resonate with anyone. Now look where we are. Most everyone knows who he is. He has more videos on youtube than all candidates combined. There is not one music video tribute to Michelle Bachmann that I have seen. NOT ONE!! How about for Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich? There isn't any!! That shows the power this man has.

Now as for the "issues" issue, were not going to play that game. Everyone is saying "well because Ron thinks heroin should be legal, he's too extreme". You need to remember that it was Chris Wallace who asked him that because he knew that Ron would have to answer it truthfully. He knew Ron couldn't lie, or spin his answer because he knows Ron is not your standard Washington insider. Same thing with the Bin Laden question, Ron is not someone who spins answers with emotions. He always, always, answers every question from a constitutional and moral perspective, rather than from the gut as others may do.

We've had one debate, we have another soon, and more after that. We are not in it to educate, we are here to win. Ron's ideas are and predictions are resonating with more everyday. You wanna see proof: It's Here! WE'RE THE PROOF! Were not giving up or giving in to intimidation or cynical poll numbers. Were gonna fight this, and were gonna win.


BECAUSE WE ARE RIGHT!! AND MORE IMPORTANTLY RON WAS RIGHT!! NOW LETS PROVE IT!!!

[trey4sports]

You're exactly right. This is a bump in the road, but that is all. It's early and the campaign hasn't even geared up really. Lets keep things in perspective here. +rep

[pauladin]

guys, look how far we've come. we're at the point where we get an 8% in a poll and we get totally butt-hurt. remember when we had 1%? 2%? the campaign just started less than 3 weeks ago. we have 8 months until the primaries! let's do this!

[Sentinelrv]

Who gave this post one star?!? :confused:

[Thomas]

Polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt and PPP is a Democratic leaning pollster to begin with. Not to mention the margin of errror is +/-4.5% and the sample was pretty small too, being only 481 Republicans. According to this poll the field is a lot tighter too since last time, which is a good thing.

[specsaregood]

Polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt and PPP is a Democratic leaning pollster to begin with. Not to mention the margin of errror is +/-4.5% and the sample was pretty small too, being only 481 Republicans. According to this poll the field is a lot tighter too since last time, which is a good thing.

It seems plausible that PPP would want polls to skew so that the toughest competitor to Obama in the general election would not show as well.
The polls right now are not counted in the ratings for pollsters. During the Rand campaign up until the point where the poll results counted towards pollster ratings PPP continually showed the race tightening between Rand and Conway. Then as soon as they counted....it went the other way. Just saying....

[Eric21ND]

Ppp is the best polling outfit there is. 500 is a decent sample, this poll is legit. The more you try to dismiss polls you don't agree with the more out of tune with reality you appear. Ron made some gaffes and it cost him, he needs to up his game, its not like these types of questions aren't anticipated at this point, especially from Wallace and foxnews. Ron should practice answers to these so often he says them in his sleep.

[specsaregood]

Ppp is the best polling outfit there is. 500 is a decent sample, this poll is legit. The more you try to dismiss polls you don't agree with the more out of tune with reality you appear. Ron made some gaffes and it cost him, he needs to up his game, its not like these types of questions aren't anticipated at this point, especially from Wallace and foxnews. Ron should practice answers to these so often he says them in his sleep.

Fair enough, BUT IIRC technically "ppp is the best polling outfit" within the last month of an election. The results prior to the last month are not used for scoring as i understand it.

Oh, and I'm satisfied with the current poll results, this thing is just getting started.

[Teaser Rate]

It seems plausible that PPP would want polls to skew so that the toughest competitor to Obama in the general election would not show as well.

No it isn't. Legitimate polling organizations such as PPP aren't in the business of skewing data to fit a certain ideology. If they don't publish what is seen as the most accurate and non-biased results possible, they risk going out of business.

[specsaregood]

No it isn't. Legitimate polling organizations such as PPP aren't in the business of skewing data to fit a certain ideology. If they don't publish what is seen as the most accurate and non-biased results possible, they risk going out of business.

Would CNN doing a poll be a legitimage polling organization?

[TheTyke]

Fair enough, BUT IIRC technically "ppp is the best polling outfit" within the last month of an election. The results prior to the last month are not used for scoring as i understand it.

Oh, and I'm satisfied with the current poll results, this thing is just getting started.

Exactly. I told all my friends how reliable PPP was UNTIL I realized this. They put out that phony poll showing Conway tied with Rand (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/ppp-poll-rand-paul-and-jack-conway-tied-in-ky.php). It was a flat out lie. Not only did Rand win by 12%, but the state fair wasn't much later, and the support for Rand was at insane levels... 1 in 5 people was walking around with a Rand Fan demand was so great we used up virtually all the stuff in the state. PPP used it to keep donations and enthusiasm flowing for Conway's failing campaign, and then hastily corrected their numbers in the final month so their accuracy rating wouldn't take a hit.

That proved to me definitively that polls are used to manipulate, even from reliable pollsters. They thought Rand would be easy to beat, so they gave him a boost in the primary... unfortunately, since they found out otherwise, and Ron is strong against Obama, they will join in the marginalization.

The bottom line is our campaign strategy, money raised, boots on the grounds etc. mean a lot more than poll numbers at this stage. Ignore the poll numbers unless they benefit us. :)

[specsaregood]

Would CNN doing a poll be a legitimage polling organization?

I ask because:


On the August 19, 1998, CNN Moneyline show with Lou Dobbs, CNN Polling Director Keating Holland discussed how he manipulated Clinton’s numbers upward to meet their expectations after plummeting from the Lewinsky affair. Holland’s justification for this breach of polling integrity was that the question had been worded wrong and if different wording had been used, Clinton’s numbers would have been higher.

[Teaser Rate]

Would CNN doing a poll be a legitimage polling organization?

CNN doesn't have as good of a track record as PPP when it comes to polling, but I'm sure their methodology is also set up in a fair way if not as effective.

[sailingaway]

PPP stopped pushing Ron as soon as they saw how well he polled against Obama. What happened to the Washington presidential primary poll they took but never published?

As I see it, there is a flavor of the week thing as each candidate comes up to declare and there is a media flurry and THEN there is push back. Ron has already survived his 'push back' spin on binLaden and Heroin, and they aren't the truth, so can be combated, given sufficient campaign funding. Gingrich and Trump collapsed under their turn. Bachmann has not yet had push back and Cain's hasn't really happened yet, but will. There is simply too much material... So this poll was taken just as Cain and Bachmann declared and got their media. Fine. Legs will be measured later.

Were people really all that worried about it? I think we need to pay attention to it, but with the field not even settled yet.... I think we're in fine shape. The future polls are far more important.

[sailingaway]

CNN doesn't have as good of a track record as PPP when it comes to polling, but I'm sure their methodology is also set up in a fair way if not as effective.

Yeah, much as I like CNN this round, they aren't as accurate as ppp IN THE FINAL TWENTY DAYS when they are scored. But I agree with the Tyke, they really play games further out from the election, or it seems like they do.

[Teaser Rate]

Yeah, much as I like CNN this round, they aren't as accurate as ppp IN THE FINAL TWENTY DAYS when they are scored. But I agree with the Tyke, they really play games further out from the election, or it seems like they do.

I think the second option is far more likely seeing how you don't have on once of evidence to suggest foul play.

Even if pollsters were are dishonest, we should still assume their results to be legitimate because 1-pollsters' different biases eventually balance each other out and 2-it's really negative for anyone in a campaign to dismiss negative results without evidence.

[UK4Paul]

In 2008, a poll sponsored by General Motors showed that over 50% of people were in FAVOUR of a bailout of the auto industry. One month later, CNN did one and over 50% were AGAINST a bailout.

Did Americans change their minds in one month?

No. It was simply achieved. The General Motors poll asked LEADING QUESTIONS first. Those leading questions led enough people to the "right" conclusion that suited General Motors.

Ask the right yes / no questions and you get generally get to the conclusion you want.

Ask Penn and Teller.

[Teaser Rate]

In 2008, a poll sponsored by General Motors showed that over 50% of people were in FAVOUR of a bailout of the auto industry. One month later, CNN did one and over 50% were AGAINST a bailout.

Did Americans change their minds in one month?

No. It was simply achieved. The General Motors poll asked LEADING QUESTIONS first. Those leading questions led enough people to the "right" conclusion that suited General Motors.

Ask the right yes / no questions and you get generally get to the conclusion you want.

Ask Penn and Teller.

How exactly would candidate preference polls be distorted?

[TaxMaiden]

It's early! These things are going to go back and forth. Considering the seriousness of the situation, Ron Paul and his message is getting a more serious look by more people than ever before. This very well could be his time. Never give up; never give in.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

There are way too many hyper-critical members on this board, and we don't need that vibe bringing people down. I wish the negative nancies would get the hell out. :mad:

[sailingaway]

I think the second option is far more likely seeing how you don't have on once of evidence to suggest foul play.

Even if pollsters were are dishonest, we should still assume their results to be legitimate because 1-pollsters' different biases eventually balance each other out and 2-it's really negative for anyone in a campaign to dismiss negative results without evidence.

We were talking about comparative credibility between polling and actually, I have evidence similar to Tyke's that they seem to play between elections in terms of 'arguable flexibility' of gender make up when one is known to poll better with a candidate etc. Can I prove it? No, but I was paying close attention and thought they were bunk, and sure enough the night before the election they released a new poll that was very different, but if they hadn't their 'last poll' would have been way off.

[mpdsapuser]

Well said. It's only June 1st, 2011. Polls are meaningless right now. The only thing that matters are the debates, the straw polls and the primaries. All RP has to do is keep telling the truth and everything else will fall into place. I have no doubt Herman Cain will be exposed as a fraud and will even make a really stupid gaffe in a debate that shows he has no idea about anything.

[rockandrollsouls]

Exactly. The campaign needs to get on it.

And, though I've likely been the most vocal critic, I'm a bit surprised Newt and Pawlenty have him beat. Didn't really see that one coming.

You know the saying...you snooze, you lose.


Ppp is the best polling outfit there is. 500 is a decent sample, this poll is legit. The more you try to dismiss polls you don't agree with the more out of tune with reality you appear. Ron made some gaffes and it cost him, he needs to up his game, its not like these types of questions aren't anticipated at this point, especially from Wallace and foxnews. Ron should practice answers to these so often he says them in his sleep.

[HarryBrowneLives]

Above and beyond polls, GOTV and turnout in IA is going to be sooooo important. I think we will do a third to twice as well as we did in '08 in IA.

[Koz]

That's right people, this could be our last shot to save our republic. We need to be louder, smarter and talk to more people door-to-door than any of the other campaigns. It can be done.

[pulp8721]

That's right people, this could be our last shot to save our republic. We need to be louder, smarter and talk to more people door-to-door than any of the other campaigns. It can be done.


Exactly! It CAN be done! Because WE are here. If WE got here, who else has the capability to get here?

Millions!

[miracleintexas]

Im not sure bachman will run. I think her cd is phased out and she will run in another cd.

[GunnyFreedom]

It takes more than just being right. You also have to be appealing. Barry Goldwater: In your heart you know he's right. We the grassroots need to demonstrate why a Ron Paul presidency is appealing. There was a very very good article linked from here about a week week and a half ago on this and it is something all of the grassroots need to read.

Being right helps, it helps a lot. But we can't rely on that or we are done. People don't care from right, they want to be appealed to.

[Paul4Prez]

I don't understand why anyone would be discouraged by this PPP poll. Ron Paul is at 8% in Iowa if Palin runs, 11% if she doesn't. This is in line with every other recent poll: Ron Paul has around 10% support, which goes to as high as 15% if non-candidates are excluded. Given the margin of error of these polls, 8% is very close to 10%. We still have a lot of work to do, but the "front runners" aren't running away with the race. It's early, and a strong showing at Ames will change perceptions. Bachmann and Pawlenty are from neighboring Minnesota, are very well known in Iowa (unlike nationally), and are banking their campaigns on a strong showing there.

Iowa is a caucus state, so poll numbers are even less predictive than they are in primary states. In 2008, Ron Paul got 10% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses, and he wasn't polling nearly as high as he is this year, and definitely not so in May of 2007.

[GunnyFreedom]

Ok close your eyes....


empty your mind


imagine yourself as a sheeplevoter


(I DID day empty your mind, didn't I?)


the year is 2016, Ron Paul is approaching the end of his first term as President of the United States.

Looking back on the last four years, what about Ron Paul has appealed to you as a sheeplevoter?

[bunklocoempire]

Pretty excellent exercise Gunny if you ask me.

Okay, I'm sheeple.

Ron appealed to my longing to be included, he asked for my help -that's how I took it. (I'm a sheeple right?)

Rather, Ron gave pretty solid examples of what had to be done -and how I could contribute to the solution, and, what was getting in my way.

I agreed to it, much like I agreed to help Obama when he asked. (I'm a sheeple right? I'm emotional and ignorant)

Lo and behold things are turning around for me this time. Unlike Obama asking for my help and things getting worse, I actually see improvement this time around. Not as much fear in the air, more of a sense of accomplishment and confidence, I'm seeing opportunity.

Okay, now I'm not sheeple.

And per the OP:

"No, we ain't going out like that, we ain't going out like that -WE AIN'T GOIN' OUT"


Bunkloco

[Kludge]

margin of errror is +/-4.5%

I don't understand why anyone would be discouraged by this PPP poll. Ron Paul is at 8% in Iowa if Palin runs, 11% if she doesn't. This is in line with every other recent poll: Ron Paul has around 10% support, which goes to as high as 15% if non-candidates are excluded. Given the margin of error of these polls, 8% is very close to 10%.
These. Don't forget those polls with ron @ 10% have a MoE as well. I didn't read the "official" thread on the poll, but getting worked up about a poll showing ~2% difference between two polls, one (at least) having a MoE of 4.5% is absurd. It's nothing to do with discrediting the poll, just pointing out the information provided by polls is not absolutely accurate, and statisticians/pollsters admit this.


There are way too many hyper-critical members on this board, and we don't need that vibe bringing people down. I wish the negative nancies would get the hell out. :mad:
And you're ridiculous.

[parocks]

"Everyone is saying "well because Ron thinks heroin should be legal, he's too extreme". "

Did Ron say heroin should be legal?

Or did Ron say the Federal Government shouldn't be involved there?

[AJ187]

It's going to take more than any poll to back me down. I expect the same from all of you. Let's put in some work, fellas!!!

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

And you're ridiculous.Pffft. :rolleyes: Less ridiculous than your post count.

[MaxPower]

It is only one poll for one state very early in the election cycle. Dr. Paul has done significantly better in most other polls, and has plenty of opportunity yet to bump up his Iowa numbers.

[HarryBrowneLives]

We would have been estatic with 8-12% in the last election at this point ... win or lose "never let it be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it was realized that our wealth and liberties were in jepardy."

[Elwar]

Anyone who's ready to throw in the towl =

C O I N T E L P R O

[BlackTerrel]

Who has thought of throwing in the towel?

[HarryBrowneLives]

I threw in the towel ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77TbTNRQFNY

[cdc482]

Start phone banking. I haven't gotten anyone yet, but other RPF phone bankers have picked up 5 extra votes for Ron Paul A PIECE!

Offer to pay the $10 for the person to go if they don't want to!

[idirtify]

Sorry, I just posted this as a new thread, but I must post it here too.
---------------------
“Poll Survey”: best election prediction?
Is there any survey/website that tallies all the votes in all the polls to date for the upcoming prezzy-election? If not, I would think this could be a pretty simple task for a programmer. I mean with so many polls and more each day (it seems like), each one alone becomes less and less informative. But a “poll survey” would be more informative, and probably the most accurate predictor of the upcoming election result. You could have categories like numbers of votes for winner compared to runner-up, numbers of polls won by winner compared to runner-up, numbers of bigger polls won versus smaller polls won, and I’m sure many more.

[libertarian4321]

What poll?

It's early June. Polls are almost meaningless at this point.

Who cares about the "poll"?