5/31/2011 Florida Robopoll Results (Ron 2nd with 16%)

[rp08orbust]

Out of 2,500 calls made at a cost of $135, there were only 86 responses to my poll, and only 83 responses excluding the RPF volunteers who were assigned to vote for a particular candidate.

Here are the results:

Mitt Romney 23% (19 votes)
Ron Paul 16% (13 votes)
Sarah Palin 13% (11 votes)
Herman Cain 12% (10 votes)
Tim Pawlenty 6% (5 votes)
Michele Bachman 1% (1 vote)
New Gingrich 1% (1 votes)
Gary Johnson 1% (1 vote)
Rick Santorum 1% (1 vote)
Other/Undecided 25% (21 votes)

Before you get excited about Ron Paul placing 2nd in a Florida poll, keep in mind that 83 is a statistically insignificant sample, and that the sample itself was biased toward Ron Paul. Only males between the ages of 25 and 40 without any female registered voters in the house were called. (Though 16% is very close to the 15% I predicted from looking at the cross-tabs of a scientific Florida poll from a few weeks ago.)

At over $10 per supporter, this is not an effective means of identifying Ron Paul supporters. If anyone wants to call those 13 supporters and try to get them to apply for Presidency 5 (ronpaulwinsflorida.com only got 4 RSVPs during the poll, some of which may have been from Facebook ads), send me a PM.

[Jeremy]

What was the purpose of spending $135 for such a small sample size? Don't you think that money would have been better spent elsewhere?

[rp08orbust]

What was the purpose of spending $135 for such a small sample size? Don't you think that money would have been better spent elsewhere?

The purpose of the poll was to identify Ron Paul supporters as part of a project to help Ron Paul win the second biggest straw poll of 2011. I was lead to believe by the polling company that 60-70% of the calls would be answered by humans (which may be the case, but the call quality is so terrible that a huge number of people who do answer just hang up). If that were the case, I would have identified 16% * 60% * 2500 ~= 225 Ron Paul supporters instead of 13, making it a very worthwhile venture.

Now I know better.

[malkusm]

Sorry that it didn't work out, it was a good idea and I applaud your efforts. Please accept my +rep as consolation.

[belian78]

Kudos on the effort, sorry it wasn't as effective as you'd hoped.
+rep

[BUSHLIED]

Sounds to me like you have to get a better quality polling company to help you cast a wider net. The critical number to pay attention to is 16%. If you were able to get 200 people to answer the poll (because of better quality), you would more likely get in touch with an estimate of 32 Ron Paul supporters. That means your cost per supporter would drop to ~$4.20 per supporter with just a 8% response rate (200/2500). That sounds good to me. Does this sound about right. What exactly is your goal in reaching these individuals IN FL? What would they be doing once you get their contact information.

[rp08orbust]

Sounds to me like you have to get a better quality polling company to help you cast a wider net. The critical number to pay attention to is 16%. If you were able to get 200 people to answer the poll (because of better quality), you would more likely get in touch with an estimate of 32 Ron Paul supporters. That means your cost per supporter would drop to ~$4.20 per supporter with just a 8% response rate (200/2500). That sounds good to me. Does this sound about right. What exactly is your goal in reaching these individuals IN FL? What would they be doing once you get their contact information.

Those who voted for Ron Paul were directed to ronpaulwinsflorida.com Please have a look.

With such little time left before the June 10 deadline, I think trying to persuade the Ron Paul campaign to send emails to Florida supporters about Presidency 5 is a better use of time than experimenting with more robopolls.

[specsaregood]

Sounds to me like you have to get a better quality polling company to help you cast a wider net. The critical number to pay attention to is 16%. If you were able to get 200 people to answer the poll (because of better quality), you would more likely get in touch with an estimate of 32 Ron Paul supporters. That means your cost per supporter would drop to ~$4.20 per supporter with just a 8% response rate (200/2500). That sounds good to me. Does this sound about right. What exactly is your goal in reaching these individuals IN FL? What would they be doing once you get their contact information.

His goal was specifically to identify Ron Paul supporters, and urge them to attend the upcoming straw poll. So not enough time left to start the process over. :(

To the OP, did you complain to the company about the quality?

[rp08orbust]

His goal was specifically to identify Ron Paul supporters, and urge them to attend the upcoming straw poll. So not enough time left to start the process over. :(

To the OP, did you complain to the company about the quality?

Yes I did. Trying to get my $135 back is probably not the best use of my time between now and June 10 though.

PS Your inbox is full.

[BUSHLIED]

While I agree that the best way to get in touch with these people would be through the campaign, why don't you just contact the meet-up groups in FL (if you haven't already). Go to meet-up, put in the FL zip-code, join the FL meet-up group or simply send a message to the moderator of the meet-up giving them a copy of the message to send out to members with the link to the site.

[rp08orbust]

While I agree that the best way to get in touch with these people would be through the campaign, why don't you just contact the meet-up groups in FL (if you haven't already). Go to meet-up, put in the FL zip-code, join the FL meet-up group or simply send a message to the moderator of the meet-up giving them a copy of the message to send out to members with the link to the site.

That is being done, though it is extremely difficult, as tangent4ronpaul has been telling us. The campaign has the most up-to-date information on active Ron Paul supporters.

[american.swan]

We need to get the registered GOP lists from the local counties and start calling kindly asking who they are currently supporting. I think it's too early to urge people to vote for Ron in a primary. Voters would complain to their local news paper about that.

The precinct leaders should be able to get some sort of list fairly easily. Cost? I don't know.

There could be hidden Ron Paul supporters in your country and you don't know about it and they may appreciate being found.

Again, call as many registered GOP voters as possible. Just ask who their supporting as part of your research. If they say Ron Paul, kindly ask them to come to some local tea party meeting or something.

[sailingaway]

Did you save the numbers that liked Ron so they can go to the campaign, ultimately, for GOTV?

[sailingaway]

Sorry that it didn't work out, it was a good idea and I applaud your efforts. Please accept my +rep as consolation.

this

[RachelFaith]

Before you get excited about Ron Paul placing 2nd in a Florida poll, keep in mind that 83 is a statistically insignificant sample, and that the sample itself was biased toward Ron Paul. Only males between the ages of 25 and 40 without any female registered voters in the house were called. (Though 16% is very close to the 15% I predicted from looking at the cross-tabs of a scientific Florida poll from a few weeks ago.)

It is more accurate than you may think. And major props for the effort. If you, the campaign, anyone, dropped about 45K worth of calls, they would poll essentially the entire state. It is a cheap and easy way to ID the low hanging fruit as they say. Why it isn't being done.... no one can say. But, it should be. You did well.

[rp08orbust]

Did you save the numbers that liked Ron so they can go to the campaign, ultimately, for GOTV?

Yes, I can send you all thirteen of them if you want lol.

[rp08orbust]

We need to get the registered GOP lists from the local counties and start calling kindly asking who they are currently supporting.

I have the entire Florida voter database as of 5/2/2011. A nice kid named Patrick O'Sullivan bought it for me in Tallahassee last week. Which reminds me, I need to reimburse him the $10.

[rp08orbust]

It is more accurate than you may think. And major props for the effort. If you, the campaign, anyone, dropped about 45K worth of calls, they would poll essentially the entire state. It is a cheap and easy way to ID the low hanging fruit as they say. Why it isn't being done.... no one can say. But, it should be. You did well.

How is $10 per identified Ron Paul voter "cheap"?

[sailingaway]

Yes, I can send you all thirteen of them if you want lol.

Better than wasting the information....

[Napoleon's Shadow]

Out of 2,500 calls made at a cost of $135, there were only 86 responses to my poll, and only 83 responses excluding the RPF volunteers who were assigned to vote for a particular candidate.If you don't mind my asking, where did you attain the list from?

[rp08orbust]

If you don't mind my asking, where did you attain the list from?

Patrick O'Sullivan from YAL-FSU picked up the FL voter database CD for me from the Florida Division of Elections in Tallahassee. I generated a random list of 2,500 voters meeting the criteria in the OP.

[gerryb]

Patrick O'Sullivan from YAL-FSU picked up the FL voter database CD for me from the Florida Division of Elections in Tallahassee. I generated a random list of 2,500 voters meeting the criteria in the OP.


What was the company you used? PM me, I'll pay for the next round of research if you think a different company will be better quality. I've been trying to get C4L leadership in Florida to send out a call to action for presidency 5. I think sadly we are out of time and those with the choke points at the campaign and C4L are asleep at the wheel.

I think it is very important to get a good IVR system in place, and later an IVR + phonebank platform for GOTV.

[rp08orbust]

What was the company you used? PM me, I'll pay for the next round of research if you think a different company will be better quality. I've been trying to get C4L leadership in Florida to send out a call to action for presidency 5. I think sadly we are out of time and those with the choke points at the campaign and C4L are asleep at the wheel.

See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?296275-Good-news-about-Presidency-5-The-campaign-is-aware-of-the-June-10-deadline

[tangent4ronpaul]

While I agree that the best way to get in touch with these people would be through the campaign, why don't you just contact the meet-up groups in FL (if you haven't already). Go to meet-up, put in the FL zip-code, join the FL meet-up group or simply send a message to the moderator of the meet-up giving them a copy of the message to send out to members with the link to the site.

I'd like to remind people of this thread:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?295630-Volunteers-needed-to-WAKE-UP-FL-Meetups!-Map-of-our-presence-there.

It's only got 45 views wich is depressing... Still, it's not too late. Shem should have sent a e-mail to every former/current Meetup that we had one for an I believe made calls, but he hasn't gotten back to me on that.

What we can do is look up name/location info for every former Meetup organizer and contact as many as we can find. They should have lists of their former supporters, so if we can encourage them to re-startup their Meetup and broadcast the news about the president 5 straw poll, we could get a TON of RP supporters registered. Look at the list and every Meetup with a N next to it is someone we can potentially contact.

Anyone want to volunteer? PM me and post in that thread which ones you want to take.

There is still time.

btw: CFL isn't touching RP's campaign due to conflict of interest and they don't necessarily have all everyone's contact info - in fact I guarantee they don't have everyone's.

-t

[gerryb]

btw: CFL isn't touching RP's campaign due to conflict of interest and they don't necessarily have all everyone's contact info - in fact I guarantee they don't have everyone's.

-t


C4L doesn't have to have any association to Ron Paul -- just encourage their membership to register for the poll and exercise their civil rights =)

[tangent4ronpaul]

C4L doesn't have to have any association to Ron Paul -- just encourage their membership to register for the poll and exercise their civil rights =)

Perhaps, but will they?

I also looked at the list of county coordinators down there... sampling a few, found one that had logged in 2 months ago, one 8 months ago, another that hadn't logged in in a year and a half...

Active groups - sure, but I'm not holding my breath

[tangent4ronpaul]

morning bump!