Intrade Odds: Ron Paul has the 11th best chance to win the GOP nomination.

[Esoteric]

Right now, Ron is trading at a 1.9% chance - Less than Chris Christie (2.2% and not running), Giuliani (2.1%), and is WAY behind Cain (5.2%). There is real money riding on this market, and it's really a sign that people still STRONGLY don't believe that Ron is electable.

At this point in time, the market surely reflects "perceived electability" much more than polling data, but as they say, "money talks". If you aren't familiar with intrade, it's a market where people buy and sell "shares" of the probability of things happening. If I think Ron will win the nomination, or will be trading higher at some point in the future, I can buy shares at the lowest asking price of 2.0% ($0.20/share). If he wins, the shares expire at 100% ($10). If you don't think something will happen, you can also "short-sell" shares, at $10 minus the current odds. So, you can also short-sell shares of Ron Paul at $9.80 to earn $10 if he does not get elected.

Current Intrade Market:

Mitt Romney - 29.5%
Tim Pawlenty - 19.0%
John Huntsman - 17.0%
Sarah Palin - 7.1%
Herman Cain - 5.4%
Michele Bachmann - 5.4%
Rick Perry - 5.4%
Chris Christie - 2.2%
Rudi Giuliani - 2.1%
Newt Gingrich - 2.0%
Ron Paul - 1.9%
Paul Ryan - 1.0%
Rick Santorum - 0.7%
Gary Johnson - 0.4%

www.intrade.com > Markets > Politics > 2012 US Elections > 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee

[trey4sports]

yuck, its went down

[Esoteric]

yuck, its went down

Indeed. He was up around 3% BEFORE Huck, Trump and Daniels dropped out. I'm considering buying on the dip .. If I have some skin in the game, maybe it will push me THAT much harder to fight for Ron.

[matt0611]

Is there a way to "short" these people if I don't think they're gonna win?
I mean, Santorum? Paul Ryan? Chris Christie? Rudy? Huntsman? None of these people have a chance at winning.
Not sure how intrade works exactly though.

[stuntman stoll]

Is there a way to "short" these people if I don't think they're gonna win?
I mean, Santorum? Paul Ryan? Chris Christie? Rudy? Huntsman? None of these people have a chance at winning.
Not sure how intrade works exactly though.

Yes, just sell. Huntsman and T-paw have no chance, making me want to open an account to bet against them too. You don't even have to wait til elections and be right to make money. You could sell T-paw at $1.90 (he's at 19%) and close the trade if and when it drops to $.95 (9.5%) (probably later this year), and make 50%

[Esoteric]

Yes, just sell. Huntsman and T-paw have no chance, making me want to open an account to bet against them too. You don't even have to wait til elections and be right to make money. You could sell T-paw at $1.90 (he's at 19%) and close the trade if and when it drops to $.95 (9.5%) (probably later this year), and make 50%

I'm tempted to do the same, although shorting them would require a good amount of capital (about $8 / share). Buying Ron on the other hand... that sounds like a pretty good deal!

[trey4sports]

I could make a living in the political futures market, unfortunately, its illegal for Americans to bet on Intrade. (i dont know the wording of the law or if there is some loophole, but AFAIK Americans cannot legally bet on Intrade.)

[sailingaway]

less than CAIN?? There is money behind Cain, I'm sure of it. Look at the crowd for his kickoff then his singular facebook listing and his ONE meetup. In Florida. Something doesn't feel right about his support. Any of the other grassroot candidates have actual grass roots....

[trey4sports]

less than CAIN?? There is money behind Cain, I'm sure of it. Look at the crowd for his kickoff then his singular facebook listing and his ONE meetup. In Florida. Something doesn't feel right about his support. Any of the other grassroot candidates have actual grass roots....

He speaks in easy to listen to, GOP approved soundbites. He has lots of average-Joe's willing to vote for him. Most people aren't interested in ideology and the truth, they'd prefer a sondbite candidate and that's where Herman comes in.

[doodle]

I don't buy it.

[sailingaway]

Is there a way to "short" these people if I don't think they're gonna win?
I mean, Santorum? Paul Ryan? Chris Christie? Rudy? Huntsman? None of these people have a chance at winning.
Not sure how intrade works exactly though.

You just need two people to buy and sell. I am pretty sure a lot of what we are looking at here is cosmetic.

[BUSHLIED]

I would not worry about this number, I would take a look at Ron Paul winning the straw poll in Iowa, Ron is at 20% running second place behind Bachman 27% (#1) with T-paw just below at 18.5% BTW, this whole race busts open when Sarah announces she will NOT run...I wonder what Bachman is waiting for...

[South Park Fan]

This seems like a safe buy bet; even if you don't think Ron Paul will win the nomination, being the kingmaker (http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/163997-ron-paul-could-be-gop-kingmaker) would surely mean that his stock will rise over the course of the cycle. Additionally, the fact that he is the third highest candidate at this stage should be worth something in his nomination chances.