First Proposed Texas Redistricting Maps / Biggest Change is to Ron Paul's District

[tsai3904]

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2011/05/take-a-look-at-the-new-congressional-redistricting-map/


The GOP chairs of the Texas House and Senate redistricting committee’s released their first proposed congressional redistricting map.

As expected, the biggest winners are Texas Republicans, who would be favored to pick up three additional seats in the 36-seat House delegation. The biggest regional winners are San Antonio (which would gain a seat) and West Texas (which should have lost a seat but didn’t). Two new Hispanic-majority districts would be created in South Texas.

The biggest regional losers are the Houston area, which gains only a sliver of an East Texas-based district that meanders north and then southeast to the Louisiana line, and Austin, which is cut into five pieces to minimize Democratic influence.

Two incumbent congressmen are big losers: Democrat Lloyd Doggett of Austin, whose district is shredded and now stretches to the Tarrant County line, and Republican Joe Barton, whose district is transformed into a minority opportunity district for D-FW area Hispanics.

Most of the Houston-area lawmakers are only minimally affected. The biggest change is to the district of Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, who loses his political stronghold of Victoria and instead wanders east along the Gulf Coast toward Beaumont and Port Arthur.

Full map at link above.

[KingRobbStark]

Do not worry. Ron Paul has us.

[My First Name Is Paul]

I believe they did this to him once before and he came out on top. I support smaller Congressional districts. The nation was founded with ~30,000 people per district. I think that was a good number.

[t0rnado]

We need to get someone to run in the Special Election there once RP becomes President.

[CoreyBowen999]

That is CRAP. Those two cities are MAJOR democratic cities..

[goRPaul]

Is his new house in this proposed district?

[Tinnuhana]

I think he just moved down the street to Clute. Not sure.

[Tinnuhana]

http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2011/may/21/bc-tx-xgr-texas-redistricting/?news&texas

No mention of Rp, but says the new districts would put several newly elected tea party backed candidates in same districts.

[Billay]

Run for senate Ron!

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

Do they think we are stupid? They are obviously scared. Keep pushing!

[AgentOrange]

It will take more than this to thwart the will of the people.

[sailingaway]

Figures, doesn't it?

[sailingaway]

That is CRAP. Those two cities are MAJOR democratic cities..

It is a PROPOSED map. Ron's force is strong in Texas, I believe. What we need to discover is if he doesn't like it.

[QueenB4Liberty]

And I don't know where he is moving to either.

[sailingaway]

And I don't know where he is moving to either.

He's already there.

[One Last Battle!]

Guys, this isn't a problem. The gerrymandering is being done by the Republicans to stick strongly Democratic districts by even stronger Republican districts, not to screw over Ron Paul. He is probably the safest Republican in congress, and that entire area of Texas is very favourable towards him.

[sailingaway]

Looking at it he still has Brazoria and Galveston. He'd better be ok.

[pauladin]

he isn't going to need that district after 2012 anyway. ;)

[goRPaul]

he isn't going to need that district after 2012 anyway. ;)

+rep

[Tom in NYC]

Doesn't that mean there are plenty of folks in a new district that know Doctor Paul's message? Sounds like an opportunity to gain another House seat for liberty.

[Nate-ForLiberty]

This won't matter since Dr. Paul will be moving to this address...

1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, D.C.

[eduardo89]

Doesn't that mean there are plenty of folks in a new district that know Doctor Paul's message? Sounds like an opportunity to gain another House seat for liberty.

Medina?

[QueenB4Liberty]

This won't matter since Dr. Paul will be moving to this address...

1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, D.C.

:D

[cindy25]

and the district will be solidly Republican anyway; Ron win with 70% or more, and they probably figure a win with 55-60% would be fine, for whoever takes that seat.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

This won't matter since Dr. Paul will be moving to this address...

1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, D.C.


+1 rep

[libertybrewcity]

I hear the house majority leader is a jack a**. He's probably behind it.

[sailingaway]

and the district will be solidly Republican anyway; Ron win with 70% or more, and they probably figure a win with 55-60% would be fine, for whoever takes that seat.

It is the primaries where they try to get him.

No luck so far, mind you....

[kylejack]

That is CRAP. Those two cities are MAJOR democratic cities..
That's silly. Ted Poe's district is there and he beat the Libertarian that ran with 89% of the vote. What you should be concerned about is primaries.

[The Moravian]

http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2011/may/21/bc-tx-xgr-texas-redistricting/?news&texas

No mention of Rp, but says the new districts would put several newly elected tea party backed candidates in same districts.

That article is talking about the proposed legislative districts map, not the Congressional district map. Paul has been elected to Congress in 5 differently drawn District 14's -- 1970s, 1980, 1990s, 2000 and the 2003 controversial Texas re-draw -- I wouldn't worry about his (replacement's) chance of losing, even though they are putting all of Galveston County (heavily Democrat but currently split between 2 districts) in his district.

Debra Medina has been Wharton County GOP chair for a while, and has built a good campaign team in her primary run for Governor. Even if they re-district her out of Paul's district, she will be able to challenge anyone -- R or D -- and I understand that she has been getting ready to run for some position in 2012.

In Texas the proposed redistricting is usually challenged in court anyway, and will probably be drawn by a court-appointed commission, so I wouldn't invest too much worry into these proposals.

Robert Paul, who was considering a US Senate bid a couple months ago, could end up in a new district in Fort Worth or could challenge the career political corporatist Kay Granger in District 12. Either way, that area voted 3-4% for the Libertarian candidate for Governor last year, so Dr. Robert Paul would be very competitive if he decides to run for Congress.

Does anybody know about any good state legislators in Texas? With 4 new Congressional Districts, this is the election for them to seize the moment!

[GunnyFreedom]

http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2011/may/21/bc-tx-xgr-texas-redistricting/?news&texas

No mention of Rp, but says the new districts would put several newly elected tea party backed candidates in same districts.

That sounds like a wild goose. GOP-TX must know if they double-bunk all the tea partiers 1/3 of their registration base will bolt.

Sounds like a shock drop so the later reality won't look so horrible. Maybe red herring even. certainly a call to keep a sharp eye on what they are doing up there. Wish a Pauler had gotten into TX Leg in 2010...

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

This may actually be a good thing for me. I am currently living a few hundred feet outside of the 14 congressional district of Texas. I can literally see Ron Paul's district from my house. It appears that this will move the boundary line in far enough that I will once again be able to proudly vote for Ron Paul in congressional elections! YAY ME!!!

[BamaAla]

This may actually be a good thing for me. I am currently living a few hundred feet outside of the 14 congressional district of Texas. I can literally see Ron Paul's district from my house. It appears that this will move the boundary line in far enough that I will once again be able to proudly vote for Ron Paul in congressional elections! YAY ME!!!

No offense sir, but I hope like hell you never get to vote for him in said Congressional election!

[sailingaway]

He'll be running for Congress at the same time as for President.

I think they cut my Dad out of his district.

[kylejack]

edit wrong thread

[The Moravian]

Keep in mind that these proposals aren't official.

What I'm more interested in is the 4 brand new CDs that Texas will get this time, and who we can support to win some of them. I don't know Robert Paul's home address, but his medical practice is currently in Kay Granger's district and one of the new districts could very well be drawn in his area, like this proposal demonstrates. Debra Medina is currently in RP's district but, as like this proposal shows, she could be drawn into McCaul's district. I would consider it a win-win for Robert and Debra to beat these incumbents if there are good candidates to run for the new districts.

[sailingaway]

Keep in mind that these proposals aren't official.

What I'm more interested in is the 4 brand new CDs that Texas will get this time, and who we can support to win some of them. I don't know Robert Paul's home address, but his medical practice is currently in Kay Granger's district and one of the new districts could very well be drawn in his area, like this proposal demonstrates. Debra Medina is currently in RP's district but, as like this proposal shows, she could be drawn into McCaul's district. I would consider it a win-win for Robert and Debra to beat these incumbents if there are good candidates to run for the new districts.

I'd like Debra to win. I don't think Robert really wants to run. I don't think any of that is worth Ron losing his seat and committee. And if it might risk that, I think we should fight it.

[Imperial]

Paul has been elected to Congress in 5 differently drawn District 14's -- 1970s, 1980, 1990s, 2000 and the 2003 controversial Texas re-draw -- I wouldn't worry about his (replacement's) chance of losing, even though they are putting all of Galveston County (heavily Democrat but currently split between 2 districts) in his district.

Debra Medina has been Wharton County GOP chair for a while, and has built a good campaign team in her primary run for Governor. Even if they re-district her out of Paul's district, she will be able to challenge anyone -- R or D -- and I understand that she has been getting ready to run for some position in 2012.

Where did you hear she plans to run again?

As far as Galveston County is concerned, it is the island which is solid Democrat. The mainland is very conservative (League City, the largest town in Galveston County, has elections where whoever is most Republican and conservative generally wins) and still rapidly trending in that direction. The island has been losing population for years, and it has only gotten worse since Hurricane Ike. My state Representative is a Republican, and Galveston's Democratic State Representative is predicted to lose sometime in the next decade with continued population shifts.

[The Moravian]

Where did you hear she plans to run again?

As far as Galveston County is concerned, it is the island which is solid Democrat. The mainland is very conservative (League City, the largest town in Galveston County, has elections where whoever is most Republican and conservative generally wins) and still rapidly trending in that direction. The island has been losing population for years, and it has only gotten worse since Hurricane Ike. My state Representative is a Republican, and Galveston's Democratic State Representative is predicted to lose sometime in the next decade with continued population shifts.

I wish I could remember where I saw a hint about Medina running again, forgive me for passing on what I can't verify. That's why I didn't phrase it very specifically in my post.

Thank you for the more accurate info about Galveston County. I was only relying on the article from the OP and others that have been referenced by other posts. When the districts are official it may be useful for me to devote more time to analyzing the political geography. I have the training and software to conduct research at the level of voter precincts and (if the necessary voter data is purchased) even individual voters by address. Currently I am making voter outreach maps of Portland, Oregon, where I live, and have worked as a data mapper for 6 legislative and school board candidates over the past year.

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

Where did you hear she plans to run again?

As far as Galveston County is concerned, it is the island which is solid Democrat. The mainland is very conservative (League City, the largest town in Galveston County, has elections where whoever is most Republican and conservative generally wins) and still rapidly trending in that direction. The island has been losing population for years, and it has only gotten worse since Hurricane Ike. My state Representative is a Republican, and Galveston's Democratic State Representative is predicted to lose sometime in the next decade with continued population shifts.

A lot of the poor people moved out after Ike.