Nash
10-29-2007, 02:04 AM
This article basically sums up my opinion on why California is winnable here:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-districts29oct29,1,2493049.story?page=1&cset=true&ctrack=1&track=rss
.. the state party amended its rules before the 2004 primary. Instead of awarding all the state's delegates to whomever wins the statewide vote, the GOP doles out three delegates to the winner of each of the state's 53 congressional districts.
Under the rules, whoever wins in San Francisco's District 8 -- represented by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and containing 34,000 registered Republicans -- will receive the same number of delegates as the top vote-getter in Orange County District 48, held by John Campbell, with 200,000 Republicans.
What this means, as explained in the article, is what I've thought for a while, if we can take the ultra liberal areas we can get a good amount of delegates because there are so few registered republicans in these areas.
San Francisco and Los Angeles are very winnable for us simply because 90% of the people in these areas generally vote democrat. If we can convert only 30% of the small number of Republicans in the regions or simply register enough republicans (a few thousand) we can win those delegates.
I'm of the opinion that San Diego and Orange County are going to be a lot harder to win since they are substantially more neocon but we have a good chance of winning the state if we can mobilize in SF, LA and the Inland Empire.
For those who care the Cali vote is likely going to be all over the place. Gulianni is the favorite but I can see Romney or Thompson grabbing some votes in Orange and San Diego counties and the Inland regions. Tancredo and Hunter are also notable in this state because Illegal Immigration is a major issue and Hunter has his home district to fall back on.
Huckabee doesn't have a chance.
Of course this is only relevant if we post wins in some of the early states and have momentum. If we do not we will fall victim to "I like him but he can't win" syndrome.
Basically I'm of the firm belief that if we post well in early states we have a good chance to take California. This is very positive.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-districts29oct29,1,2493049.story?page=1&cset=true&ctrack=1&track=rss
.. the state party amended its rules before the 2004 primary. Instead of awarding all the state's delegates to whomever wins the statewide vote, the GOP doles out three delegates to the winner of each of the state's 53 congressional districts.
Under the rules, whoever wins in San Francisco's District 8 -- represented by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and containing 34,000 registered Republicans -- will receive the same number of delegates as the top vote-getter in Orange County District 48, held by John Campbell, with 200,000 Republicans.
What this means, as explained in the article, is what I've thought for a while, if we can take the ultra liberal areas we can get a good amount of delegates because there are so few registered republicans in these areas.
San Francisco and Los Angeles are very winnable for us simply because 90% of the people in these areas generally vote democrat. If we can convert only 30% of the small number of Republicans in the regions or simply register enough republicans (a few thousand) we can win those delegates.
I'm of the opinion that San Diego and Orange County are going to be a lot harder to win since they are substantially more neocon but we have a good chance of winning the state if we can mobilize in SF, LA and the Inland Empire.
For those who care the Cali vote is likely going to be all over the place. Gulianni is the favorite but I can see Romney or Thompson grabbing some votes in Orange and San Diego counties and the Inland regions. Tancredo and Hunter are also notable in this state because Illegal Immigration is a major issue and Hunter has his home district to fall back on.
Huckabee doesn't have a chance.
Of course this is only relevant if we post wins in some of the early states and have momentum. If we do not we will fall victim to "I like him but he can't win" syndrome.
Basically I'm of the firm belief that if we post well in early states we have a good chance to take California. This is very positive.