View Full Version : We can win California...and this is how....

10-29-2007, 02:04 AM
This article basically sums up my opinion on why California is winnable here:


.. the state party amended its rules before the 2004 primary. Instead of awarding all the state's delegates to whomever wins the statewide vote, the GOP doles out three delegates to the winner of each of the state's 53 congressional districts.

Under the rules, whoever wins in San Francisco's District 8 -- represented by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and containing 34,000 registered Republicans -- will receive the same number of delegates as the top vote-getter in Orange County District 48, held by John Campbell, with 200,000 Republicans.

What this means, as explained in the article, is what I've thought for a while, if we can take the ultra liberal areas we can get a good amount of delegates because there are so few registered republicans in these areas.

San Francisco and Los Angeles are very winnable for us simply because 90% of the people in these areas generally vote democrat. If we can convert only 30% of the small number of Republicans in the regions or simply register enough republicans (a few thousand) we can win those delegates.

I'm of the opinion that San Diego and Orange County are going to be a lot harder to win since they are substantially more neocon but we have a good chance of winning the state if we can mobilize in SF, LA and the Inland Empire.

For those who care the Cali vote is likely going to be all over the place. Gulianni is the favorite but I can see Romney or Thompson grabbing some votes in Orange and San Diego counties and the Inland regions. Tancredo and Hunter are also notable in this state because Illegal Immigration is a major issue and Hunter has his home district to fall back on.

Huckabee doesn't have a chance.

Of course this is only relevant if we post wins in some of the early states and have momentum. If we do not we will fall victim to "I like him but he can't win" syndrome.

Basically I'm of the firm belief that if we post well in early states we have a good chance to take California. This is very positive.

10-29-2007, 02:07 AM

10-29-2007, 03:05 AM
I did see a giant Ron Paul banner in walking path over the freeway in Berkeley today. I was driving to the airport and gave a thumbs ups to the people up there.

10-29-2007, 07:29 AM
I would pick congressional districts where the party establishment is weak.

They are less beholden to Bush, Rudy, Terminator and are more likely to vote who they know in their heart is right.

10-29-2007, 07:59 AM
This is ossum, but right now, I'm interested in who is attending the Hollywood fundraiser tomorrow. :D

We all know how most people are more comfortable being followers...with a little luck, maybe there are some celebs out there who will attend and make their support of Dr. Paul known to the rest of the world.

10-29-2007, 09:11 AM
I saw that article.

I assume these are Meetup guys, and not official campaign employees, right? We don't have an office in CA right now, that I'm aware of.

Those guys are freakin' awesome: they saw a rule change, figured out how to adapt the Paul campaign to that change, and just went out and did it.

This is a winning strategy, too, whatever that consultant has to say about it. One easy way to market is to find a way to get to the customers no one else wants. None of the other campaigns will reach out to Republicans in Oakland or San Fran, you can bet that much. At least, not until 2012, after Paul volunteers make it work this time around.