James R

10-29-2007, 01:25 AM

If one in 40 American adults voted for Ron Paul in the primaries he would win in a landslide victory.

1. The population of the United States is currently 302million, of which approximately 74 million are minors, for a total of 228 million potential voters.

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

http://www.census.gov/popest/nationa...EST2006-02.xls

2. In the 2004 primaries, there were 16,400,000 Democrat voters total. There are a similar number of Republican voters. However, polls suggest a minimum of 10% Democratic leaning. This suggest a Republican turnout of about 14,800,000 this primary.

http://rhodescook.com/primary.analysis.html

3. The 2004 Republican race is without any leader or prospect of leadership and most likely a score of 29% would win the nomination if held today. So, we need 4,300,000 votes to win. We could win with as few as 3,250,000 votes depending how the campaign goes. By the more likely estimate, that means that 1 in 50 American adults are needed to win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

4. Therefore, hardly any votes are needed for a win by any candidate (only 1.9% of the US population). People just don't realize how few votes are needed to win these primaries (1 in 50 people!). Each one vote for any candidate is quite powerful in the primaries race. And of course Paul will gain those the easiest.

Similar statistics are in NH. Less than 3% of the adults there voting for him would mean a landslide victory in the primaries race.

1. The population of the United States is currently 302million, of which approximately 74 million are minors, for a total of 228 million potential voters.

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

http://www.census.gov/popest/nationa...EST2006-02.xls

2. In the 2004 primaries, there were 16,400,000 Democrat voters total. There are a similar number of Republican voters. However, polls suggest a minimum of 10% Democratic leaning. This suggest a Republican turnout of about 14,800,000 this primary.

http://rhodescook.com/primary.analysis.html

3. The 2004 Republican race is without any leader or prospect of leadership and most likely a score of 29% would win the nomination if held today. So, we need 4,300,000 votes to win. We could win with as few as 3,250,000 votes depending how the campaign goes. By the more likely estimate, that means that 1 in 50 American adults are needed to win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

4. Therefore, hardly any votes are needed for a win by any candidate (only 1.9% of the US population). People just don't realize how few votes are needed to win these primaries (1 in 50 people!). Each one vote for any candidate is quite powerful in the primaries race. And of course Paul will gain those the easiest.

Similar statistics are in NH. Less than 3% of the adults there voting for him would mean a landslide victory in the primaries race.