someoldbird
05-24-2011, 12:46 AM
Hello, I'm new here and I am an American currently living in Taiwan. I saw a discussion on Taiwan but it was 2 years old the people discussing it were not really informed about the situation. I decided, perhaps arrogantly, to put up a new thread about Taiwan on this forum to revive talk about what a Ron Paul presidency implies for Taiwan.
Just a warning things are about to get long winded if you dont care about Taiwan from 2000-2008 just skip down to the paragraph that starts out "Obviously no matter how well armed Taiwan is, China would win." Everything before that is background, read at your own will. I hope you find it informative, I don't blame you if you find it excessive and irrelevant. This is my world and my issue, I'm just asking for answers.
In 2000 Bush came into the office in the US and affirmed the US commitment to help Taiwan. This changed rather fast. At the same time, President Chen of the green party, the DPP, came into office in Taiwan. His position was Taiwan should be independent. China wasn't happy of course. Chen began spreading his message not just abroad but also at home. He had statues of Chiang Kai-shek dismantled and renamed landmarks previously bearing the tyrant's name. This went on for a while with China getting pissed off all the way. The KMT, blue party of Chiang Kai-shek, controlled many state assets and media outlets. They use all their resources to make Chen look bad: cross straight tensions are rising because of him, the economy is down because of him, he is making Taiwan look bad... Meanwhile Bush gets America into the Middle East and North Korea starts to act up, so the US can't afford to fight for Taiwan nor can we afford to lose China's help so an arms freeze took place and for years we stopped selling Taiwan weapons. This did not look good on Chen's part. Aside from that, Europe also painted Chen up as a troublemaker for constantly applying for membership in the WTO, WHO, UN etc. China gets fed up with these "antics" and releases the Anti Secession Act (phrased that way to be reminiscent of the Southern states that seceded from the Union during the US Civil War Era) affirming their right to go to war against Taiwan should it declare independence or (and this is the fucked up part) resist measures to peacefully reunify with the mainland. America is in a very awkward position here, stuck between China's constant threats and Taiwan's attempts to gain international recognition. Finally the Taiwanese people vote president Ma of the KMT into office after DPP president Chen's 2 terms are over. What got them most was the bad economy, tensions with China, bad international press, Chen and his family's alleged crookedness, and also allegations that Chen set up a fake assassination attempt in 2004 to secure his reelection. Since Ma took office, Ma has had no effect on the economy, failed to secure any benefits from China regarding Taiwan's autonomy (the number of missiles China has pointed at Taiwan has only increased and they were even rejected observer status in the WTO and WHO) despite all the concessions on his (and by extension Taiwan's) part. Ma also increased police presence and their level of interference at peaceful political protests going so far as to make it not ok to display an ROC flag when a Chinese emissary visits Taiwan. On top of that, Ma's reaction time is very slow; he responded poorly to Taiwan getting hit by Typhoon Moraki (likened to Bush's handling of Katrina) and he failed to respond to a crisis regarding the Diaoyutai islands (a disputed territory between Taiwan and Japan) until days later when tensions were so high on both sides that politicians began making veiled and even blatant statements about going to war (his response was to fire a Taiwanese ambassador to Japan who was DPP). Ma did kept his promise to allow green and blue party members in his cabinet but then created an all blue committee to have closed door meetings with mainland Chinese officials creating a lot of suspicion ultimately culminating in signing ECFA into affect with out prior disclosure to the people or apposition party. What was ECFA? An economic agreement with China that 2012 presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen says will make Taiwan financially dependent on China and also open Taiwanese markets to cheap Chinese goods that will drown out local Taiwanese businesses. Currently Ma is very unpopular and I do not expect him to win reelection. Before leaving office Bush ended the arms freeze and sold Ma a nice weapons package. The reasons for this are many and complicated:
1 China and Taiwan under Ma's rapprochement had been making Washington weary; Neocons found it detrimental to US strategic positioning in the Pacific.
2 If bush left office without selling Taiwan weapons it would have set a precedent. By selling the weapons Bush gave incumbent President Obama more foreign policy options, and indeed Obama did use this option since he's been in office.
3 That shit with Russia and Georgia went down putting China on red alert, the US's response then was to arm its allies.
4 China had failed to make North Korea chill out so this was punishment.
5 To distract America from its economic woes, a hot issue during that election year.
Now I would like to talk about the Taiwanese people. They are very apolitical especially the youth; imagine college campuses where no one cares about politics AT ALL. They like the status quo; they like their jobs. They have been occupied by foreign powers since the beginning of their history culminating in the White Terror of Chiang Kai-shek. On top of that the world has betrayed them, denying their right to self-determination. The US, while supposedly being Taiwan's best friend has also been their worst enemy. Taiwan isn't "depending" on America to save the day that's just what the US promised. If the US wants to break that promise, they need to say so, that way Taiwan can stop fucking around with the bullshit weapons packages and get something that will give them a leg to stand on if a conflict were to break out either from the US or elsewhere. But just to be perfectly clear the major source of Taiwan's problems has been America. Taiwan is used to heat from China but when Taiwan's ally the US starts not allowing Taiwanese politicians to make speeches at American universities or telling the Taiwanese President he isn't allowed off his airplane as it refuels in Hawaii or even labels the president a "trouble maker" for putting up for referendum whether or not he should file the necessary paper work to join the UN, it really sends a message to the Taiwanese people: our politicians lie to us, the world betrays us, its to depressing so we're not listening anymore, life liberty and property rights are a sham, CREAM cash rules everything around me dolla dolla billz yall.
After finally throwing off the yolk of a one party state in the 80s and maturing into a REAL democracy the Taiwanese people were and still are satisfied and just want a sense of normalcy in their lives and their children’s lives. They do not want a war for independence if they can have de facto independence forever. Their beef with Ma is that the KMT's supposed better understanding of the economy seems to be a joke and that instead of reducing tensions with China he seems to be taking steps to unify the two nations. Word on the street is that ever since Chen took office away from the KMT, the blue party wants to reunite with their former nemesis, Beijing, so they can go back to crooked politics under a Chinese flag without worry of a second party.
Obviously no matter how well armed Taiwan is, China would win. We don't want weapons to fight a war we want them to make it in China's best interest not to go to war. If China becomes so strong they could obliterate Taiwan without any significant casualties or sustaining any damage (including infrastructure China could profit on that are in Taiwan) then Taiwan would have to surrender. China does not want the equivalent of a 9/11 nor would they want to go to war for a pile of scorched earth. If they did manage compel Taiwan to join them without the use of force, then regardless of whether it was coercive or not, no one would stand up for Taiwan because its "a peaceful transition" "one country 2 systems (for 20 or so years)" "the Taiwanese are basically Chinese" blah, blah, blah. By acquiring weapons Taiwan won't go off and fight for freedom, Taiwan will say it’s in neither of our best interests to fight so lets just trade and keep the status quo. This way time is on Taiwan's side, all they have to do is go about their daily business until China's bubble bursts, or the people start a jasmine revolution there, or ideological leader whose been playing the system comes into power and moves China towards democracy or something miraculous like that. At the same time in a very odd way The Taiwan Question is good for the PRC. Their people see them as opposing western imperialism by their rhetoric against Taiwan's strides for independence. China's communist ideology is all but a joke now so one of the only things the CCP has going for it right now is the threat of losing Taiwan. Also if Taiwan did become part of China, Taiwan could spread the message of democracy all around the mainland. Don't mistake this for the PRC being totally unwilling to acquire Taiwan though. Gaining more territory and more of a claim to disputed territory, strategic military positioning, a stronger economy to pacify destitute mainlanders, a corrupt loyal backing by KMT legislators, etc. are all in China's greater interests but those can wait. Time is also on Beijing's side if America was to fall or become isolationist again and not sell Taiwan weapons.
The down side to free trade is that everyone wants to trade with China and that makes them to big to fail. Free trade with them makes them richer and more powerful and puts a damper on world leaders urge to call them out on their bullshit. True free trade does reduce a countries chances of going to war with another country but woe to the countries that end up falling victim to sketchy Chinese policy unopposed by other countries that trade with China. Think of corrupt African governments getting their money by selling oil to China and what happened in Darfur, think of the Taiwan question, think of Tibet and Xinjiang etc. Unfortunately the UN can't do much to stop China and in many cases have had to do some pretty hypocritical things because of China; hence the first two letters in "unfortunately" are UN.
This is why I hope Ron Paul firmly believes in free trade and getting out of entangling alliances. If the US were to appear anti-empire in the Asian region Beijing would take all steps possible to take control of Taiwan. Japan and South Korea would probably begin a military build-up. Japan hasn't really had a military since WW2 but it does have a lot of territorial disputes with China and is widely hated by Chinese for WW2. I also assume the Taiwanese, without any reassurance of US military support would probably go green (DPP the political party advocating independence) and try to end ECFA (an economic agreement that opens their markets up to cheap Chinese goods thus drowning out Taiwanese businesses and makes Taiwan economically dependent on China) and buy up weapons from the US. What would be ideal would be if Ron Paul would sell or threaten to sell Taiwan a hefty weapons package including a state of the art missile defense system before he declares his commitment to a noninterventionist foreign policy and also get the US out of the UN (the entangling alliance that failed to honor Taiwan's right to self-determination) and recognize or threaten to recognize Taiwan's independence if China doesn't play nice. This is all in line with what Ron Paul believes, but in this complicated risky scenario, can Ron Paul put into practice what he preaches?
I'll vote for Ron Paul just for his honesty but as for his policy, if he doesn't sell us weapons but does institute a non interventionist policy he might as well cut us open and throw us to sharks. I think Ron Paul is Taiwan's best chance because of his free trade beliefs which I hope include arms sales, and for his non interventionist policy which I hope will reactivate the Taiwanese people's political awareness and make them realize that Taiwan's first line of defense is its own voters. But for the moment it all depends on Ron Paul's not quite elaborated stance on the Taiwan Question.
Just a warning things are about to get long winded if you dont care about Taiwan from 2000-2008 just skip down to the paragraph that starts out "Obviously no matter how well armed Taiwan is, China would win." Everything before that is background, read at your own will. I hope you find it informative, I don't blame you if you find it excessive and irrelevant. This is my world and my issue, I'm just asking for answers.
In 2000 Bush came into the office in the US and affirmed the US commitment to help Taiwan. This changed rather fast. At the same time, President Chen of the green party, the DPP, came into office in Taiwan. His position was Taiwan should be independent. China wasn't happy of course. Chen began spreading his message not just abroad but also at home. He had statues of Chiang Kai-shek dismantled and renamed landmarks previously bearing the tyrant's name. This went on for a while with China getting pissed off all the way. The KMT, blue party of Chiang Kai-shek, controlled many state assets and media outlets. They use all their resources to make Chen look bad: cross straight tensions are rising because of him, the economy is down because of him, he is making Taiwan look bad... Meanwhile Bush gets America into the Middle East and North Korea starts to act up, so the US can't afford to fight for Taiwan nor can we afford to lose China's help so an arms freeze took place and for years we stopped selling Taiwan weapons. This did not look good on Chen's part. Aside from that, Europe also painted Chen up as a troublemaker for constantly applying for membership in the WTO, WHO, UN etc. China gets fed up with these "antics" and releases the Anti Secession Act (phrased that way to be reminiscent of the Southern states that seceded from the Union during the US Civil War Era) affirming their right to go to war against Taiwan should it declare independence or (and this is the fucked up part) resist measures to peacefully reunify with the mainland. America is in a very awkward position here, stuck between China's constant threats and Taiwan's attempts to gain international recognition. Finally the Taiwanese people vote president Ma of the KMT into office after DPP president Chen's 2 terms are over. What got them most was the bad economy, tensions with China, bad international press, Chen and his family's alleged crookedness, and also allegations that Chen set up a fake assassination attempt in 2004 to secure his reelection. Since Ma took office, Ma has had no effect on the economy, failed to secure any benefits from China regarding Taiwan's autonomy (the number of missiles China has pointed at Taiwan has only increased and they were even rejected observer status in the WTO and WHO) despite all the concessions on his (and by extension Taiwan's) part. Ma also increased police presence and their level of interference at peaceful political protests going so far as to make it not ok to display an ROC flag when a Chinese emissary visits Taiwan. On top of that, Ma's reaction time is very slow; he responded poorly to Taiwan getting hit by Typhoon Moraki (likened to Bush's handling of Katrina) and he failed to respond to a crisis regarding the Diaoyutai islands (a disputed territory between Taiwan and Japan) until days later when tensions were so high on both sides that politicians began making veiled and even blatant statements about going to war (his response was to fire a Taiwanese ambassador to Japan who was DPP). Ma did kept his promise to allow green and blue party members in his cabinet but then created an all blue committee to have closed door meetings with mainland Chinese officials creating a lot of suspicion ultimately culminating in signing ECFA into affect with out prior disclosure to the people or apposition party. What was ECFA? An economic agreement with China that 2012 presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen says will make Taiwan financially dependent on China and also open Taiwanese markets to cheap Chinese goods that will drown out local Taiwanese businesses. Currently Ma is very unpopular and I do not expect him to win reelection. Before leaving office Bush ended the arms freeze and sold Ma a nice weapons package. The reasons for this are many and complicated:
1 China and Taiwan under Ma's rapprochement had been making Washington weary; Neocons found it detrimental to US strategic positioning in the Pacific.
2 If bush left office without selling Taiwan weapons it would have set a precedent. By selling the weapons Bush gave incumbent President Obama more foreign policy options, and indeed Obama did use this option since he's been in office.
3 That shit with Russia and Georgia went down putting China on red alert, the US's response then was to arm its allies.
4 China had failed to make North Korea chill out so this was punishment.
5 To distract America from its economic woes, a hot issue during that election year.
Now I would like to talk about the Taiwanese people. They are very apolitical especially the youth; imagine college campuses where no one cares about politics AT ALL. They like the status quo; they like their jobs. They have been occupied by foreign powers since the beginning of their history culminating in the White Terror of Chiang Kai-shek. On top of that the world has betrayed them, denying their right to self-determination. The US, while supposedly being Taiwan's best friend has also been their worst enemy. Taiwan isn't "depending" on America to save the day that's just what the US promised. If the US wants to break that promise, they need to say so, that way Taiwan can stop fucking around with the bullshit weapons packages and get something that will give them a leg to stand on if a conflict were to break out either from the US or elsewhere. But just to be perfectly clear the major source of Taiwan's problems has been America. Taiwan is used to heat from China but when Taiwan's ally the US starts not allowing Taiwanese politicians to make speeches at American universities or telling the Taiwanese President he isn't allowed off his airplane as it refuels in Hawaii or even labels the president a "trouble maker" for putting up for referendum whether or not he should file the necessary paper work to join the UN, it really sends a message to the Taiwanese people: our politicians lie to us, the world betrays us, its to depressing so we're not listening anymore, life liberty and property rights are a sham, CREAM cash rules everything around me dolla dolla billz yall.
After finally throwing off the yolk of a one party state in the 80s and maturing into a REAL democracy the Taiwanese people were and still are satisfied and just want a sense of normalcy in their lives and their children’s lives. They do not want a war for independence if they can have de facto independence forever. Their beef with Ma is that the KMT's supposed better understanding of the economy seems to be a joke and that instead of reducing tensions with China he seems to be taking steps to unify the two nations. Word on the street is that ever since Chen took office away from the KMT, the blue party wants to reunite with their former nemesis, Beijing, so they can go back to crooked politics under a Chinese flag without worry of a second party.
Obviously no matter how well armed Taiwan is, China would win. We don't want weapons to fight a war we want them to make it in China's best interest not to go to war. If China becomes so strong they could obliterate Taiwan without any significant casualties or sustaining any damage (including infrastructure China could profit on that are in Taiwan) then Taiwan would have to surrender. China does not want the equivalent of a 9/11 nor would they want to go to war for a pile of scorched earth. If they did manage compel Taiwan to join them without the use of force, then regardless of whether it was coercive or not, no one would stand up for Taiwan because its "a peaceful transition" "one country 2 systems (for 20 or so years)" "the Taiwanese are basically Chinese" blah, blah, blah. By acquiring weapons Taiwan won't go off and fight for freedom, Taiwan will say it’s in neither of our best interests to fight so lets just trade and keep the status quo. This way time is on Taiwan's side, all they have to do is go about their daily business until China's bubble bursts, or the people start a jasmine revolution there, or ideological leader whose been playing the system comes into power and moves China towards democracy or something miraculous like that. At the same time in a very odd way The Taiwan Question is good for the PRC. Their people see them as opposing western imperialism by their rhetoric against Taiwan's strides for independence. China's communist ideology is all but a joke now so one of the only things the CCP has going for it right now is the threat of losing Taiwan. Also if Taiwan did become part of China, Taiwan could spread the message of democracy all around the mainland. Don't mistake this for the PRC being totally unwilling to acquire Taiwan though. Gaining more territory and more of a claim to disputed territory, strategic military positioning, a stronger economy to pacify destitute mainlanders, a corrupt loyal backing by KMT legislators, etc. are all in China's greater interests but those can wait. Time is also on Beijing's side if America was to fall or become isolationist again and not sell Taiwan weapons.
The down side to free trade is that everyone wants to trade with China and that makes them to big to fail. Free trade with them makes them richer and more powerful and puts a damper on world leaders urge to call them out on their bullshit. True free trade does reduce a countries chances of going to war with another country but woe to the countries that end up falling victim to sketchy Chinese policy unopposed by other countries that trade with China. Think of corrupt African governments getting their money by selling oil to China and what happened in Darfur, think of the Taiwan question, think of Tibet and Xinjiang etc. Unfortunately the UN can't do much to stop China and in many cases have had to do some pretty hypocritical things because of China; hence the first two letters in "unfortunately" are UN.
This is why I hope Ron Paul firmly believes in free trade and getting out of entangling alliances. If the US were to appear anti-empire in the Asian region Beijing would take all steps possible to take control of Taiwan. Japan and South Korea would probably begin a military build-up. Japan hasn't really had a military since WW2 but it does have a lot of territorial disputes with China and is widely hated by Chinese for WW2. I also assume the Taiwanese, without any reassurance of US military support would probably go green (DPP the political party advocating independence) and try to end ECFA (an economic agreement that opens their markets up to cheap Chinese goods thus drowning out Taiwanese businesses and makes Taiwan economically dependent on China) and buy up weapons from the US. What would be ideal would be if Ron Paul would sell or threaten to sell Taiwan a hefty weapons package including a state of the art missile defense system before he declares his commitment to a noninterventionist foreign policy and also get the US out of the UN (the entangling alliance that failed to honor Taiwan's right to self-determination) and recognize or threaten to recognize Taiwan's independence if China doesn't play nice. This is all in line with what Ron Paul believes, but in this complicated risky scenario, can Ron Paul put into practice what he preaches?
I'll vote for Ron Paul just for his honesty but as for his policy, if he doesn't sell us weapons but does institute a non interventionist policy he might as well cut us open and throw us to sharks. I think Ron Paul is Taiwan's best chance because of his free trade beliefs which I hope include arms sales, and for his non interventionist policy which I hope will reactivate the Taiwanese people's political awareness and make them realize that Taiwan's first line of defense is its own voters. But for the moment it all depends on Ron Paul's not quite elaborated stance on the Taiwan Question.