UNH/CNN/WMUR Poll of New Hampshire - Ron in Distant Second to Romney

[Agorism]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/05/23/topnh1.pdf


UNH/CNN/WMUR

NH Primary

Romney: 33%
Paul: 9%
Gingrich: 7%
Giuliani: 6%
Pawlenty: 6%
Palin: 5%
Bachmann: 4%
Cain: 4%
Huntsman: 4%
Santorum: 2%

[muzzled dogg]

Damn Romney

[rp08orbust]

Solid 2nd vs 3 or 4-way tied for 2nd in another recent poll.

[RileyE104]

If it comes down to Romney vs Paul, there's no way the other 68% are going to vote for him. I'm confident that Ron can defeat Mittens, even without the special interest millions.

[R3volutionJedi]

Hey, we may be able to get about 15% in the final.

I have 2 questions:

Why is Romney so popular?

and

Why is Romney so popular in NH?

[muzzled dogg]

A lotta mass expat rinos in nh

[Dreepa]

Romney has a house here in NH.
Romney spends LOTS of time in NH.
Romney's PAC spent a lot of money here in 2010 elections.

If Ron comes in 2nd or 3rd in NH that is gonna be GREAT.

[PaulConventionWV]

Romney has a house here in NH.
Romney spends LOTS of time in NH.
Romney's PAC spent a lot of money here in 2010 elections.

If Ron comes in 2nd or 3rd in NH that is gonna be GREAT.

And the only person who can beat Romney in NH IS... (drumroll) :)

[South Park Fan]

Second place is really good for this stage in the game. The key is to 1) Keep any other competitors from overtaking us for second; and 2) Ensure that the plurality of ex-Romney voters who find out about his healthcare stance (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/magnitude-of-romneys-problem.html) switch to Paul.

[Epic]

9% is kinda low with Huckabee and Trump out, but 2nd place is very good. Ron needs to keep 2nd for sure, and (I agree) grab those turned off of Romneycare.

15% have Ron Paul as one of their top 3 choices.
15% have Giuliani as one of their top 3 choices.
15% have Gingrich as one of their top 3 choices.
21% have Palin as one of their top 3 choices.
16% for Bachmann
17% for Pawlenty
61% for Romney

Ron Paul could use a little bit more depth of support.


"Strongest Leader" - Ron Paul gets just 3%

"Most believable" - Romney over Paul by 20% to 12% (this is a good result)

"Most likeable" - Ron Paul gets just 7%

"Handle terrorism" - Ron Paul gets just 5%

"Best chance of beating Obama" - Paul gets just 1% even though the latest CNN poll shows Ron Paul did the best!

[eduardo89]

Wtf is this Romney love-fest?

[trey4sports]

If you look at the crosstabs its both good and bad. The good is that Rons support seems to be strong. He shouldnt "dip" any lower than hes at. The bad news is that if it comes down to Paul VS. Romney, Romney is the preferred 2nd choice candidate of 20% of the voters whereas Ron is the second place choice of only 4% of voters....

[TrueStrengthTurnsTheCheek]

h xxp://www.foxnews.com/on-air/oreilly/index.html
vote for ron lower right side of page

[mpdsapuser]

It must be the hairspray that does it for Romney.

[sailingaway]

9% is kinda low with Huckabee and Trump out, but 2nd place is very good. Ron needs to keep 2nd for sure, and (I agree) grab those turned off of Romneycare.

15% have Ron Paul as one of their top 3 choices.
15% have Giuliani as one of their top 3 choices.
15% have Gingrich as one of their top 3 choices.
21% have Palin as one of their top 3 choices.
16% for Bachmann
17% for Pawlenty
61% for Romney

Ron Paul could use a little bit more depth of support.


"Strongest Leader" - Ron Paul gets just 3%

"Most believable" - Romney over Paul by 20% to 12% (this is a good result)

"Most likeable" - Ron Paul gets just 7%

"Handle terrorism" - Ron Paul gets just 5%

"Best chance of beating Obama" - Paul gets just 1% even though the latest CNN poll shows Ron Paul did the best!

I agree it's kinda low. I keep seeing the bin Laden smear and the heroin smear, but hopefully by the time there is a key date in NH there will be good ads running, including one explaining Ron's foreign policy "I would have gone for bin Laden ten years ago, and what if we had? We'd have saved ten years and thousands of lives and hundreds of thousands of disabilities, and vast sums of money. We must never compromise strong defense of this country, but our defense includes having the funds to engage in war at need. We hurt not only our safety nets but our national security with this debt....."

And we need to have the polls showing how well Ron does against Obama in all our flyers. People need to KNOW that.

[USAF_Saylor]

New poll and already Ron Paul is winning: http://www.glbanners.com/polls/21/2012presidentialelection.html

[sailingaway]

h xxp://www.foxnews.com/on-air/oreilly/index.html
vote for ron lower right side of page

Cain is winning:
Mitt Romney
17.53% (112 votes)

Newt Gingrich
7.51% (48 votes)

Tim Pawlenty
17.06% (109 votes)

Herman Cain
31.3% (200 votes)

Ron Paul
26.6% (170 votes)

[gls]

Romney has spent A LOT of time in New Hampshire over the past four years and it has paid off for him handsomely. That's pretty much all there is to it. NH primary voters are spoiled; if a presidential candidate wants their support that candidate had better show up in their backyard (preferably repeatedly).

[trey4sports]

Romney has spent A LOT of time in New Hampshire over the past four years and it has paid off for him handsomely. That's pretty much all there is to it. NH primary voters are spoiled; if a presidential candidate wants their support that candidate had better show up in their backyard (preferably repeatedly).

Romney is part of the ole boys club around there. It will take a LOT to win N.H. I think winning Iowa is more likely

[Lucille]

Cain is winning:
Mitt Romney
17.53% (112 votes)

Newt Gingrich
7.51% (48 votes)

Tim Pawlenty
17.06% (109 votes)

Herman Cain
31.3% (200 votes)

Ron Paul
26.6% (170 votes)

It's acting funny. You can vote as many times as you want to, but they won't all be counted. Wasn't there another FOX poll that took 2 votes or more for RP to register one vote?

Gary Johnson was omitted.

[Kregisen]

We finally have a poll with Cain.....4%. I guess he was never a threat at all.

Now 2nd place is very good....but it's shocking that Romney has 33% of the vote in that state, compared to maybe 20% in most others.

[libertygrl]

Wtf is this Romney love-fest?

I know, I was asking myself the same thing. Are these people idiots or what??? Oh, let me guess: "He looks Presidential." Think I'll go puke now. :mad:

[JRegs85]

Pat Buchanan pulled off the NH upset in '96....

[Agorism]

Buchanan lost Iowa by 2% tho so he was going in strong.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Why does Giuliani keep appearing in polls? Is there any indication at all he is going to run? It's almost like they put him in there just as a placeholder because all the other neo-cons in the game are so bad.

[trey4sports]

The biggest thing that could help us would be winning Iowa, and carrying that momentum into N.H. and all the voters gunning for the fringe candidates (everyone except Paul and Romney, feels good saying that.) vote for Paul as the "anti-Romney."

[Bruno]

Romney's hair in the lead, no surprise unfortunately.

[Tinnuhana]

Slightly OT: Anyone think Huntsman's entrance will split the LDS bloc vote?

[BUSHLIED]

Everything is going to change after the summer, with a few more debates, the field will be pretty much settled (Palin or Bachman in or out etc..), campaign money raised and reported, and ground games active and firmly in place, you'll see the polls change quite a bit...

[AlexMerced]

this is great, ROmney is polling too high to early, and his poll numbers are getting to close to Obamas this makes him a target of the left wing media and of plethora of Rpeublicans candidates trying to edge their way to the race.

Romney poll numbers are calling to much attention to his despite his attempt to have a low profile, mud will be slinged at him from all sides for the next few months.

[Billay]

New Hampshire isn't indie anymore. All the assholes from Massachusetts moved there thats why Romney is so popular up there.

[PaulConventionWV]

Romney has spent A LOT of time in New Hampshire over the past four years and it has paid off for him handsomely. That's pretty much all there is to it. NH primary voters are spoiled; if a presidential candidate wants their support that candidate had better show up in their backyard (preferably repeatedly).

Meh, it's not ideal, but a closer second in NH would not be a bad result if we can win Iowa. We are already second in NH, so we've got that going for us, and I believe we are in a closer 3rd or 2nd in Iowa, so we really need to focus our efforts there. Don't let that discourage the Paulites in NH, though! We love you guys!

[gls]

New Hampshire isn't indie anymore. All the assholes from Massachusetts moved there thats why Romney is so popular up there.

If New Hampshire is so full of liberals why did the GOP take both the state house and state senate by large margins in the 2010 elections? Since then the state government has been busy reducing all manners of spending, taxes and regulations (just take a look at the New Hampshire forum (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forumdisplay.php?253-New-Hampshire) on this website).

[FSP-Rebel]

New Hampshire isn't indie anymore. All the assholes from Massachusetts moved there thats why Romney is so popular up there.

NH republicans tend be business owners and thus a 'successful' businessman like Romney fits their script. Many of them aspire to be the country clubber type so they tend to want to mingle with party bigshots that adore Romney. State republican politicians tend to be very libertarian in their views but the federal level ones are more like the former. I remember when I was at the gop hq last year phone banking and current Sen. Ayotte walked in and sat down next to some of us to put her time in, the guy next to me about forgot what he was doing as he was in awe that she was at our table. He was going on and on about it on facebook in regards to the pic that was taken. It really stuck with me how typical nh republicans look so highly upon their federal people. Things are very different about what views are accepted in-state vs views for the federal level. Hard to explain until you see it for oneself.

[Badger Paul]

For all the caterwalling that RP is screwed because he said this or because he said that, I think what we're finding out is RP now has a solid 9-11 percent base in each state (in comparison to the 1 percent we had at this time four years ago). Now, to expand upon this will require good showing big upcoming straw polls like Iowa's and Florida's and the RLC. If we do well in these, the stigma of "he can't win" will be gone and we'll be ready to take off and challenge Romney.

[Michigan11]

I think to get past the non-electable stigma, that's used on not only Paul, but anyone besides the establishment pic... we need to get some creativity flowing to excite not only the base but bring the party to this campaign and attract others with our magnetic field

[Eric21ND]

It blows my mind that the Freestate Project is going on in this state.

[low preference guy]

It blows my mind that the Freestate Project is going on in this state.

less than 1000 people moved in so far. more results will occur with time.

[sailingaway]

Slightly OT: Anyone think Huntsman's entrance will split the LDS bloc vote?

Yes, since as far as I know he didn't come out in favor of TARP the way Mitt did. Frankly, I haven't looked into Huntsman much though, to know his skeletons.

[Kregisen]

less than 1000 people moved in so far. more results will occur with time.

I thought 5,000 did?? I've only been on the site a few times but last time I was there I thought it said about 5,000/10,000...or were those just pledges or something?

[low preference guy]

I thought 5,000 did?? I've only been on the site a few times but last time I was there I thought it said about 5,000/10,000...or were those just pledges or something?

http://freestateproject.org/

10904 participants
906 in new hampshire

participants are those who pledged to move

[BlackTerrel]

We finally have a poll with Cain.....4%. I guess he was never a threat at all.

In EVERY scientific poll Cain has been behind RP. For all the threads worried about Cain he's not going to have much of an impact.

[RonPaulGetsIt]

The dollar crisis hits and Ron Paul explains why it happened and what to do about it during the debates while Mitt Romney does his best plastic man impression.

Either that or it is more of the same. It really doesn't matter who is behind the teleprompter. No change will occur withour Ron Paul and Ron Paul won't be elected unless people are knocked out of their slumber.

Bottom line is the economy dictates our chaces.

[South Park Fan]

In EVERY scientific poll Cain has been behind RP. For all the threads worried about Cain he's not going to have much of an impact.

That's assuming that Cain's numbers remain constant. Huckabee was polling at about the same level at this point and nearly won the nomination last go around.

[eleganz]

I looked at the statistics of the poll.

Out of 347 that were to vote R

Romney - 114.5 votes
Ron - 31.2

[parocks]

New Hampshire TV is out of Boston.
Romney was Governor of Massachusetts.
They probably see more TV about the Governor of Mass than of NH.
A growing number of people live in NH and work in Boston.

[S.Shorland]

Feinstein says that 32% is very weak.Hilary was 60% last time around.Everything is still to play for.

[nbhadja]

It blows my mind that the Freestate Project is going on in this state.

It was a really bad state. They should have picked Wyoming, New Mexico etc. NH is a liberal state period.

[jt8025]

This question made me sad.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Which Republican candidate do you think is
best able to handle health care issues?
May
2011
Romney 31%
Paul 8%
Gingrich 7%
Palin 5%
Bachmann 3%
Giuliani 3%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 3%
Cain 2%
Daniels 1%
Huntsman *
Johnson *
Karger *
Someone else 2%
No opinion 32%

[rp08orbust]

This question made me sad.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Which Republican candidate do you think is
best able to handle health care issues?
May
2011
Romney 31%
Paul 8%
Gingrich 7%
Palin 5%
Bachmann 3%
Giuliani 3%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 3%
Cain 2%
Daniels 1%
Huntsman *
Johnson *
Karger *
Someone else 2%
No opinion 32%

Good news for Obama. I wonder if it's possible for him to run as a Republican in New Hampshire. He'd win the Republican primary and face no competition in the GE.

[bobbyw24]

Todays Politics

Romney Kicks Ron Paul's Ass In New Hampshire CNN poll...32% to 9% #politics http://bit.ly/k7RPko

www.twitter.com/todayspolitics

[freedom-maniac]

I personally find this encouraging that Dr. Paul is in 2nd place.

Sure Romney's got us beat by far, but consider things back in the '07 when Rudy was leading in all the polls, but finally collapsed before the first primaries in '08. People slowly began to wake up and realize what a tool he was despite Fox News cramming him down their throats.

If we (and by we I mean grassroots) keep hitting Mitt for his leftist views and demoralize his supporters (even if they don't support Dr. Paul, but choose not to vote, or for another Neo-con) we can pull his base out from under him like what happened with Rudy and have a pretty good shot at at this.

[AZ Libertarian]

It blows my mind that the Freestate Project is going on in this state.

I agree. If this is the 'prevailing wisdon' in NH, you can count me out of the Free State Project...

(and I was thinking about attending PorcFest this year - silly me)

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

I agree. If this is the 'prevailing wisdon' in NH, you can count me out of the Free State Project...

(and I was thinking about attending PorcFest this year - silly me)

How's John McCain lately? Jan Brewer? How many libertarians elected to Arizona legislature or any of the other States? How many states have a movement to have libertarians make the move there? If I am not mistaken NH has more people registered as Independents than D or R. Oft-aside, State-politics are a completely different beast than Federal. I'd also like to ask what other State Ron Paul polls second in? Thanks.

I'd really like to see you make the move to NH as you would be an incredible asset. Still remember the good speech you gave last year at the End the Fed Rally in Chicago with Gary & Catherine.

[toowm]

I agree. If this is the 'prevailing wisdon' in NH, you can count me out of the Free State Project...

(and I was thinking about attending PorcFest this year - silly me)

1. Romney's numbers can only go down from here. As has been mentioned, he lives part of the year in NH, he has near 100% name recognition, and campaigned the best and spent a ton of money in 2008.
2. Ron Paul's campaign in NH in 2008 was late and weak; a strange mix of campaign staffers that didn't understand the state, some local politicos, in-state activists (lots of Freestaters) and out-of-state activists. If we get our act together, we can win this state.
3. Don't judge the effectiveness of the FSP based on a pre-election season primary poll, especially when the whole idea was to all move once 20,000 sign up. Everything that has been accomplished to date is gravy.