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Pseudolus
05-22-2011, 06:47 AM
From my perspective, the GOP primary will be a fight between the Establishment and the Tea Party...and the Tea Party will likely win, because voters are tired of the status quo.

The current GOP contenders and potential contenders are:

Establishment Candidates:
Newt Gingrich
John Huntsman, Jr.
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

Tea Party Candidates:
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Gary Johnson
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul

Rather than wasting our time attacking the establishment candidates (which everyone else is going to do for us), I think we need to focus on bringing Ron Paul to the top of the Tea Party pack.

We need to make Ron Paul the Tea Party candidate most likely to win.

swissaustrian
05-22-2011, 07:00 AM
Herman Cain is a teoCON = fake tea party.

dean.engelhardt
05-22-2011, 07:20 AM
Herman Cain is a teoCON = fake tea party.

Correct. His fair tax, prebate program is an entitlement program that makes social security looks tiny. He has not made any specific plans to reduce the government or taxation.

Pseudolus
05-22-2011, 07:23 AM
Four Points:

In attacking Paul Ryan, I believe Newt Gingrich has likely killed his chances of the GOP nomination. Not to mention any of Newt's other baggage.

I also seriously doubt John Huntsman, Jr. has the name recognition to beat out Pawlenty, Romney, and Santorum in the establishment category.

Sarah Palin has everything to lose (money, power, influence, family stability, etc.) if she runs and (without a clear path to beating Obama, due to all her haters), not much to gain even if she wins the GOP nomination. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but I truly believe Palin will sit the race out and play king-maker instead.

I also believe Gary Johnson doesn't have the name recognition or charisma to be a serious contender in 2012.

With those thoughts in mind, the trimmed list of serious contenders in both groups are:

Establishment Candidates:
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

Tea Party Candidates:
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Ron Paul

realtonygoodwin
05-22-2011, 07:47 AM
Agreed, except I think the media may push Huntsman, we will have to see though.

Pseudolus
05-22-2011, 08:05 AM
Herman Cain is a teoCON = fake tea party.
Correct. His fair tax, prebate program is an entitlement program that makes social security looks tiny. He has not made any specific plans to reduce the government or taxation.What would you have me do? Pretend Cain's not running? Pretend Cain is part of the Establishment?

Call Cain a "teoCON" all you want, but he beat Ron Paul at the last Tea Party convention (not to mention the SC debate). He also has a charisma factor that Ron Paul is currently lacking. Nope, like it or hate it, Cain's a contender for at least the time being, and he's clearly winning more Tea Party favor with each passing day.

Also--and I really don't want to spin this thread off topic--I have to say: I firmly believe you are completely wrong on the Fair Tax. I love the Fair Tax. The prebate is not an entitlement program by any stretch of the imagination; it's an advance against taxes each person will inevitably pay no matter what they buy in life. There's no select group that gets it, there's no select set of goods that it favors. (But, again, I really don't want to turn this thread into a debate on the Fair Tax, so let's do our best to drop it or discuss it elsewhere.)

Pseudolus
05-22-2011, 08:19 AM
Tea Party Candidates:
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Ron Paul
I'm hoping Bachmann & Cain's inexperience will cause them to make enough political gaffes that Ron Paul will be left alone as the defacto Tea Party candidate.

swissaustrian
05-22-2011, 08:21 AM
Herman Cain says, he is NOT a tea partier: " he said it would be wrong to describe him a tea partier. “I would consider myself a citizen’s candidate,” he said. “To label anyone a tea party candidate is too narrow.” http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/01/13/herman-cain-call-me-regular-folk/

Live_Free_Or_Die
05-22-2011, 08:35 AM
More like...




Establishment Candidates:

Newt Gingrich
John Huntsman, Jr.
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

Tea-O-Con Party Candidates:


Sarah Palin
Michele Bachmann

"I am convinced in my heart and in my mind that if the United States fails to stand with Israel, that is the end of the United States" -Michell Bachmann


Herman Cain



Tea Party Candidates:


Gary Johnson
Ron Paul

Pseudolus
05-22-2011, 08:35 AM
Herman Cain says, he is NOT a tea partier: " he said it would be wrong to describe him a tea partier. “I would consider myself a citizen’s candidate,” he said. “To label anyone a tea party candidate is too narrow.” http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/01/13/herman-cain-call-me-regular-folk/That's an attempt to open up the title to more people so that he can pull in liberal votes or Tea Party detractor votes when the time comes. Come on, after several Tea Party wins and 40+ Tea Party appearances, it's clear he's more a member of the Tea Party than Gary Johnson.

But, at least within this thread, the separation of Tea Party vs Establishment is not about how candidates identify themselves; it's about from where they will get their dominant support. And since there are only two dominant sections of the GOP currently, Cain will obviously get most of his support from the Tea Parties before he gets it from the Establishment.

swissaustrian
05-22-2011, 08:50 AM
If i would be a tea partier, i would have troubles voting for someone who doesīnt identify himself with my movement. These people need to know who this man really is.
I would also be very concerned to vote for somebody who is a FED insider.
Concerning the fair tax, read this: http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics-mainmenu-44/289-is-making-taxes-fair-the-answer
I happen to live in Europe, where we have sales taxes - itīs a desaster.
We have different rates for different products, thusands of exemptions and loopholes, and an insane bureaucracy trying to collect the tax. Itīs a gift to special interest groups.
Also read on the role of the Federal Reserve in a fair tax system: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FairTax#Theories_of_retail_pricing

ninepointfive
05-22-2011, 09:48 AM
Many Tea Party leaders are infatuated with the political lifestyle. So much so that they will call themselves liberty leaders, while assimilating their efforts into the establishment borg. No joke.

You cant lead for liberty, while making deals with the establishment.

acptulsa
05-22-2011, 09:48 AM
Tea Party means nothing. Why do you think it's the talk all over the country? Because it's too slippery to stick a pin in. Can you imagine the establishment types funding a 'Libertarian Express'? Of course not; libertarianism means something specific. 'Tea Party' is just a way to either coopt libertarianism or discredit it without substantively addressing it.

And, yes, it could indeed work for them. Certainly the teaocons show more promise than the likes of Romney and Pawlenty.

The antidote is a clear, simple discussion of the issues.

gaazn
05-22-2011, 10:50 AM
Huntsman is not establishment, but he is not tea party either. He needs a separate column. Santorum is not a serious contender, he will be the only credible Catholic running since Newt doesn't have Catholic cred. Obama has trouble getting Catholic vote. Huntsman chances will make or break in South Carolina. He's gambling he can get enough independents to vote in the primary there.

Paulatized
05-22-2011, 11:17 AM
Cain = Tea Party Distractor