New Poll Minus Huckabee: Ron Paul in Fifth Place at 5%; Gary Johnson Below 1%

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html


In the GOP primary, Romney’s 20 percent was followed by Sarah Palin (12 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), Rudy Giuliani (7 percent), Ron Paul (5 percent), Michele Bachmann (4 percent), Herman Cain (4 percent), Mitch Daniels (4 percent), Tim Pawlenty (3 percent) and Rick Santorum (3 percent), with 20 percent undecided. Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer all received less than 1 percent.

[dannno]

But Herman Cain won the debate!!

[LibertyEagle]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

[Thargok]

Very accurate pollster there.

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

[Thomas]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

the entire campaign will sink

[TheTyke]

Very accurate pollster there.

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

A great point. I wonder if they view Gov. Corzine as a threat if he ran for president? :)

[Paulatized]

Why was Rudy Giuliani in this poll? Not that RP would have got any of his votes, but just wondering?

[FiannaPaul]

Look on the bright side, Giuliani is not running, Palin is not running, that puts him in third. A lot of the Palin vote will come our way.

This time in the last campaign we were less than 1%

[Paulatized]

Look on the bright side, Giuliani is not running, Palin is not running, that puts him in third. A lot of the Palin vote will come our way.


My prediction: Bachmann's in and Palin will throw her support toward her, and Huckabee's support will go that way. Top 2 contenders:
Romney, Bachmann. Establishment vs tea party

[sailingaway]

I never heard of that polling company, though and have no idea how accurate they are. I need to see some polling company I can measure against prior polls. Also, unfortunately, it may take a month for the hits on drugs and bin laden and the CRA to cycle through so people who are willing to look know what he actually said.

[sailingaway]

My prediction: Bachmann's in and Palin will throw her support toward her, and Huckabee's support will go that way. Top 2 contenders:
Romney, Bachmann. Establishment vs tea party

I think the establishment is bolstering either Cain or Bachmann as the tea party alternative. They consider them more controlable. I think Bachmann is the better of the two, they seem to like Cain better. But they DON'T like Ron.

I am concerned Palin may throw her support to Bachmann, but she might just stay out and mention 'principles' she thinks candidates can have... at least until she sees who catches on. We'll see.

[rp08orbust]

I think the establishment is bolstering either Cain or Bachmann as the tea party alternative. They consider them more controlable. I think Bachmann is the better of the two, they seem to like Cain better. But they DON'T like Ron.

I am concerned Palin may throw her support to Bachmann, but she might just stay out and mention 'principles' she thinks candidates can have... at least until she sees who catches on. We'll see.

I don't think Sarah Palin wants to back a loser, so I'm guessing she'll wait until after the Ames straw poll to make an endorsement, if at all. Hopefully Ron's victory over Cain and Bachmann is so decisive that a "Tea Party" endorsement of those two losers would look silly for so obviously skipping over Ron Paul.

[sailingaway]

I don't think Sarah Palin wants to back a loser, so I'm guessing she'll wait until after the Ames straw poll to make an endorsement, if at all. Hopefully Ron's victory over Cain and Bachmann is so decisive that a "Tea Party" endorsement of those two losers would look silly for so obviously skipping over Ron Paul.

Bachmann already has a machine started in Iowa, one of the central c'ee members is her guy. If she comes in Iowa will be her big push. She was born there, and polls well there (comparatively.)

[t0rnado]

Suffolk University is a joke of an institution. A 5 year old could conduct better polls.

[mport1]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

Yes, he needs to spend some of those millions on some speech coaches. It would be by far the best use of money. Rand could also teach him a thing or two for free.

[rp08orbust]

Speaking of endorsements and Rand, when and how should Rand endorse Ron?

[tsai3904]

Did anyone look at the actual poll results and methodology?

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.National.Survey.Marginals .May.17.2011.pdf (pdf warning)

The poll was conducted May 10-17. Huckabee and Trump didn't drop out til May 14 and May 16. Suffolk called back the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump and asked who their second choice would be and only 51 responded. Then, they consolidated the numbers and this was their result (page 4 of pdf):

Romney – 20%
Palin – 12%
Gingrich – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 7%
Paul – 5%
Bachmann – 4%
Cain – 4%
Daniels – 4%
Pawlenty – 3%
Santorum – 3%
Trump – 1%

Their final result still includes Huckabee and Trump. Please don't place too much weight into this poll.

[rp08orbust]

Did anyone look at the actual poll results and methodology?

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.National.Survey.Marginals .May.17.2011.pdf (pdf warning)

The poll was conducted May 10-17. Huckabee and Trump didn't drop out til May 14 and May 16. Suffolk called back the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump and asked who their second choice would be and only 51 responded. Then, they consolidated the numbers and this was their result (page 4 of pdf):

Romney – 20%
Palin – 12%
Gingrich – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 7%
Paul – 5%
Bachmann – 4%
Cain – 4%
Daniels – 4%
Pawlenty – 3%
Santorum – 3%
Trump – 1%

Their final result still includes Huckabee and Trump. Please don't place too much weight into this poll.

rep++

I downloaded the PDF myself and quickly became overwhelmed with the amount of data. I'm glad someone read through the thing and actually figured out what was going on!

Edit: The Huckabee results make sense according to your explanation, but why is Trump's percentage so low?

[Thargok]

They seem to have an accuracy problem based on their historic outcomes. I didn't have time to read the questions but I assume this is a result of a research/statistical methods class and not necessarily an experienced pollster (because it is academic) which might lead to mild question bias and give odd results. Also the order of the questions can have a similar result.

[tsai3904]

The Huckabee results make sense according to your explanation, but why is Trump's percentage so low?

Of the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump, only 51 responded to give their second choice. That left 41 people still choosing Huckabee and Trump, 36 for Huckabee and 5 for Trump. That's how they arrive at 8% for Huckabee and 1% for Trump.

[rp08orbust]

Of the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump, only 51 responded to give their second choice. That left 41 people still choosing Huckabee and Trump, 36 for Huckabee and 5 for Trump. That's how they arrive at 8% for Huckabee and 1% for Trump.

I understand, but it's strange that Huckabee supporters were far more likely to return calls than Trump supporters. Do you know when the follow-up calls occurred? Did they call back during Apprentice?

[eleganz]

Why the hell is the Tea Party so divided??

And Why is the head of the Tea Party anti-RP?

And how can anybody in their right mind think that Sarah Palin can run this nation? Just the way she presents herself, I'm surprised she can put on her clothes properly in the morning. Her knowledge about politics and life in general is just so limited, she cannot answer questions without sounding totally stupid and quit her political career to advance her celebrity. I just don't get how the Tea Party can be behind someone like Sarah Palin-makes no sense at all.

[Thargok]

There is no head of the Tea Party, and if there was Rand Paul would be the closest thing to it, so I don't think we have to worry about that. In fact the Tea Party is really just a collection of tea satellites with no central power.

[libertybrewcity]

it's too early for polls.

[itsnobody]

Seems pretty inaccurate, but we still have to do a lot of work to get the GOP Nomination

[Billay]

JFC Guiliani polling ahead of us?

[sailingaway]

Why the hell is the Tea Party so divided??

And Why is the head of the Tea Party anti-RP?

And how can anybody in their right mind think that Sarah Palin can run this nation? Just the way she presents herself, I'm surprised she can put on her clothes properly in the morning. Her knowledge about politics and life in general is just so limited, she cannot answer questions without sounding totally stupid and quit her political career to advance her celebrity. I just don't get how the Tea Party can be behind someone like Sarah Palin-makes no sense at all.

The head of the tea party isn't anti Ron P. The head of a group that named itself Tea Party Nation long after the tea parties were underway in order to coopt them for neocon purposes is anti-RP. There is a significant difference.

[KEEF]

Why the hell is the Tea Party so divided??

And Why is the head of the Tea Party anti-RP?

And how can anybody in their right mind think that Sarah Palin can run this nation? Just the way she presents herself, I'm surprised she can put on her clothes properly in the morning. Her knowledge about politics and life in general is just so limited, she cannot answer questions without sounding totally stupid and quit her political career to advance her celebrity. I just don't get how the Tea Party can be behind someone like Sarah Palin-makes no sense at all.

No leader, there is just two female RINOs trying to take credit for starting it. I think in actuality, the TEA Party people really do have a ton of support for RP. FOX News just chooses not to show that side so to persuade the general public to nominate their elite chosen one.

[Paul4Prez]

Look at the bright side of the poll: no one is over 20 percent yet, and 20 percent are undecided. Palin and Giuliani are likely not running, which will free up another 19 percent. The mighty Newt is in single digits. Of the candidates in the first debate, none have passed Ron Paul in the polling, not Cain, not Pawlenty, not Santorum, and not Johnson. Mainstream media favorites Pawlenty, Daniels, and Huntsman barely register. Bachmann trails Ron Paul.

A lot of work left to do, but certainly nothing to be discouraged over.

[dbill27]

7% want Rudy Giuliani, wtf?

[mpdsapuser]

it's too early for polls.

Agreed. Even if Bachtmann enters, she has less name recognition than Palin. She is being trumped up to be the anti-Paul tea party rep. People will see through her. However, I have a hard time thinking she is going to enter. Why waste the time going through this unless she is practicing and going through the motions for 2016.

[Liberty Shark]

How reputable are Suffolk's polls? Why is Giuliani listed?
If it is accurate there is some good news here. Romney should have way more than 20%. And Gingrich was in single digits before the implosion.
National polls aren't really too important this early. The polling people should be conducting polls in the specific early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

[BlackTerrel]

Basically of the people who actually will run this puts Romney #1 and then a group of people (Ron Paul included) in second place and within the margin of error. There is one man in front as of now is how I look at it.

[Liberty Shark]

Bachmann could be a threat in Iowa, especially if Palin doesn't run - also now that Huckabee is out.
Highly unlikely Romney does well in Iowa.

[libertarian4321]

My prediction: Bachmann's in and Palin will throw her support toward her, and Huckabee's support will go that way. Top 2 contenders:
Romney, Bachmann. Establishment vs tea party

Bachmann is a loose cannon who shoots off her mouth without thinking (or maybe she is thinking and still says stupid things, which is even worse). Sarah Palin, clueless as she is, looks like an elder statesman compared to Bachmann. If she runs she will shoot herself in the foot very quickly.

If Bachmann is the only contender to Romney, you may as well just hand Romney the nomination.

I'd like to think a more rational contender might challenge Romeny, especially Ron Paul (though, frankly, almost any of the potential contenders is more rational than Bachmann).

[ronpaulitician]

the entire campaign will sink
Game over, man. Game over.

[ronpaulitician]

7% want Rudy Giuliani, wtf?
I bet those are all Ron Paul supporters who just want to see him finally apologize to Ron Paul during a live debate.

[Nathan Hale]

I think it's a little early to say that Palin isn't running. On Hannity last night she gave a pretty hard "I'm seriously thinking about it" line.

[sailingaway]

Bachmann could be a threat in Iowa, especially if Palin doesn't run - also now that Huckabee is out.
Highly unlikely Romney does well in Iowa.

Exactly. I think she is in it just to get name recognition for next time, but I think she will be in it through the early states we NEED to be big in to get RP viewed as a serious candidate despite the polling which shows him to be such.

However, I'm pretty much ignoring this poll, except as a 'media spin' point. It just doesn't match up with any of the others I've seen.

[Johncjackson]

The poll isn't that bad. Where was he this time in 2007- 12th? 1%?
Pawlenty, Daniels, and Huntsman are all being pushed in the media. Pawlenty was supposed to be the only "top tier" in the first debate. Daniels is being pushed as sort of an acceptable "libertarian-friendly" more mainstream candidate. I've seen a lot of stories about Huntsman being pushed, though acknowledging he is seen as too moderate. Cain won the debate! Bachmann is being pushed as the "tea party"candidate.

What do those candidates have in common? They are all being pushed as favorites by at least some significant faction of media and party insiders, yet they are all polling behind Ron Paul.

Plus you have to figure at least 20% is up for grabs, some of those candidates wont run at all, and at least a handful probably wont even make it to the primaries or will be gone after Iowa or NH.

[Johncjackson]

Bachmann is a loose cannon who shoots off her mouth without thinking (or maybe she is thinking and still says stupid things, which is even worse). Sarah Palin, clueless as she is, looks like an elder statesman compared to Bachmann. If she runs she will shoot herself in the foot very quickly.

If Bachmann is the only contender to Romney, you may as well just hand Romney the nomination.

I'd like to think a more rational contender might challenge Romeny, especially Ron Paul (though, frankly, almost any of the potential contenders is more rational than Bachmann).

Good point. Bachmann seems like a weaker version of Palin to me- even more gaffe prone. And Palin already has a lot of negatives herself.

[trey4sports]

The key is bringing Romneys neg's upward and making sure Bachmann doesn't bring in the so-cons

[pacelli]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

Agreed. No more educational campaigns. Run to win.

[Galileo Galilei]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html

If you look at the favorables and unfavorables, Ron is basically the 2nd best candidate. Romney has a modest lead over him. Newt and Pawlenty are arguably near Ron in popularity and the others are well behind. At this stage, favorables and unfavorables are more predictive.

Here are the main reason why Ron's poll numbers fall below his favorables:

1) a lot of peopel have been told Ron can't win. That impression gets changed by winning the Iowa straw poll.

2) to many, Ron does not look "presidential". That get fixed by millions of dollars of patriotic TV ads portraying Ron as an executive leader.

[Jeremy]

Both Rudy and Sarah likely won't run, so the poll is a waste.

[Ex Lux lucis]

If accurate, this is perturbing.

[Cleaner44]

But Herman Cain won the debate!!

I noticed that too. :)

[sunghoko]

Bachmann is a loose cannon who shoots off her mouth without thinking (or maybe she is thinking and still says stupid things, which is even worse). Sarah Palin, clueless as she is, looks like an elder statesman compared to Bachmann. If she runs she will shoot herself in the foot very quickly.

If Bachmann is the only contender to Romney, you may as well just hand Romney the nomination.

I'd like to think a more rational contender might challenge Romeny, especially Ron Paul (though, frankly, almost any of the potential contenders is more rational than Bachmann).

I totally agree. Bachmann is a windsock and a total noob. The woman can't think for herself and when she does she gaffs. I hate the fact that people are overlooking RP's 30+ years of congressional service in favor of getting the next maverick. Makes me want to puke

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

This poll doesn't say very much. Why did they even put Giuliani in there? He's not a potential candidate.

[The Moravian]

Of the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump, only 51 responded to give their second choice. That left 41 people still choosing Huckabee and Trump, 36 for Huckabee and 5 for Trump. That's how they arrive at 8% for Huckabee and 1% for Trump.

I noticed the 92 and 51 discrepancy, too. Your accounting for the 41 left over is mathematically exact, but why are they sticking with their "first choice"?

After it becomes clear that Huck and Trump will not run, their supporters will either pick someone else or not participate, unless they are die-hard fans regardless of anything else.

Overall, I would not consider this poll to be "the first poll without Trump and Huckabee" because it clearly was taken during the time they announced their withdrawals, making it an unclear measure of support.

[tsai3904]

I noticed the 92 and 51 discrepancy, too. Your accounting for the 41 left over is mathematically exact, but why are they sticking with their "first choice"?

After it becomes clear that Huck and Trump will not run, their supporters will either pick someone else or not participate, unless they are die-hard fans regardless of anything else.

Overall, I would not consider this poll to be "the first poll without Trump and Huckabee" because it clearly was taken during the time they announced their withdrawals, making it an unclear measure of support.

They're not sticking with their first choice. I think the polling company just couldn't reach those 41 voters. If they call back a second time, it's unlikely that the same voter will be home to pick up the call or they might just decide not to participate again.

[rich34]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html

Don't ya find it ironic that it seems like every single poll coming out is all over the map? I mean literally. One poll showing Cain in 2nd, Ron in 3rd, and this one the totally opposite??? Once again, this is going to have to be a word of mouth campaign. The media and the polling firms will do anything to distort the truth.

I still think Rand would wipe the slate clean with all these chumps. I love Ron and he's the most honest politician there is, but Rand answers the questions in non controversial ways that the media and the PTB can't so easily distort. At the same time I'm not sure Rand would have as strong as of a grassroots campaign as Ron would, but then again, Rand really reaches those teocons WAY better than Ron does. We know where Rand really stands on the issues, but the way he answers those questions the teocons seem to like it where as Ron they don't..