jgmaynard
10-27-2007, 10:11 PM
I just had a thought...
The Rasmussen poll that just came out that showed Paul with only 2% had a silver lining to it:
It stated that the poll was conducted surveying registered Republicans only, 65% of whom were in favor of the war.
I figure with Ron, Rudy, Romney, McCain and Thompson as the top five dogs in the race, they'll likely all score ~ 15-25%. That means it should take about 25% to win.
Follow me here... :D
Even IF 65% of NH Republicans are for the war (which seems high to me, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt), that would seem to mean that 35% are opposed. We can easily get the Republican anti-war vote just by building name recognition. Even if that number is as low as 35%, that's still more than it takes to win, assuming war is the #1 issue with which they are concerned. :)
This is where it get's good:
Outnumbering Republicans in this state (or Democrats) are registered Independents (such as yours truely), who can vote in either primary. I don't have polling numbers for NH Is on the war, but it sure seems from here that it is as popular as head lice. :) (pardon my my Fred moment ;) ). That should give us significant numbers from there to further pad the results.
Add several more percentage points because we will show up in far greater numbers than the average voter.
Tack on an extra couple points because we will have far and away the largest contingent of banner-and-sign-waving valunteers at every poll, no matter where, no matter what the weather. Sad but true, this does add a few percentage points.
And we were ten points up to begin...
This is looking pretty sweet. :D
JM
The Rasmussen poll that just came out that showed Paul with only 2% had a silver lining to it:
It stated that the poll was conducted surveying registered Republicans only, 65% of whom were in favor of the war.
I figure with Ron, Rudy, Romney, McCain and Thompson as the top five dogs in the race, they'll likely all score ~ 15-25%. That means it should take about 25% to win.
Follow me here... :D
Even IF 65% of NH Republicans are for the war (which seems high to me, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt), that would seem to mean that 35% are opposed. We can easily get the Republican anti-war vote just by building name recognition. Even if that number is as low as 35%, that's still more than it takes to win, assuming war is the #1 issue with which they are concerned. :)
This is where it get's good:
Outnumbering Republicans in this state (or Democrats) are registered Independents (such as yours truely), who can vote in either primary. I don't have polling numbers for NH Is on the war, but it sure seems from here that it is as popular as head lice. :) (pardon my my Fred moment ;) ). That should give us significant numbers from there to further pad the results.
Add several more percentage points because we will show up in far greater numbers than the average voter.
Tack on an extra couple points because we will have far and away the largest contingent of banner-and-sign-waving valunteers at every poll, no matter where, no matter what the weather. Sad but true, this does add a few percentage points.
And we were ten points up to begin...
This is looking pretty sweet. :D
JM