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View Full Version : Mike Huckabee What the Huckabee voters are looking for




realtonygoodwin
05-15-2011, 02:12 PM
hxxp://forum.hucksarmy.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=25280


For those of you who are grieving I understand. This is for those who are ready to move on and find a candidate to support for 2012. Here's the guidelines I used to come to support Huckabee back before he was popular, and why I could tell that he would be a GREAT candidate.

First of all, we want a candidate that we can trust on the pro-life issue. Anyone who has said that they are pro-abortion (Romney) at some point, or has issues with social conservatives (Daniels) is suspect. I also want someone who will make government smaller, so that's something to look for too.

A critical part is finding an electable candidate too. That phrase is thrown around a lot, but how do you know someone is electable? A candidate is more than a list if issues that you can check off. He has to have a likable, charismatic personality in order to attract marginal voters. Huckabee had this, which is what made him such a strong candidate.

How do you find such a candidate though? How I found Huckabee back in 2008 was by looking at polls. He was polling around 5% at the time, so I clearly didn't jump on the bandwagon of the leading candidate. What to look for in the polls then? It's actually quite simple. Look for a candidate who does much better among women than they do among men.

Statistically, men pay much more attention to politics than women do. No honest person can deny this. This means that a lot of marginal, swing voters are women. They're the ones that look at aesthetic things about a candidate, such as their charisma and personality, whereas a lot of men look at a checklist of issues. You have to look at relative polling too, meaning how they poll among women compared to how they poll among men.

For example, if candidate A gets 23% among men and 25% among women, while candidate B gets 3% among men and 7% among women, then candidate B is the more electable candidate. Candidate B probably just has low name recognition. If Candidate B was a well-known (by average people on the street) candidate and still polled that low, then they're just not likable (see Sarah Palin). If they're a relative unknown (like Huckabee was in 2008), then they're probably a good candidate.

I don't know who I'll go with for 2012, but in the months ahead I'll start looking at the internals of polls and share with everyone what I find.


Interesting thread over there.